Canada Recommends Maximum of Two Drinks Per Week
The Canadian government announced new national recommendations that say zero alcohol is the only risk-free approach to drinking. The guidance says two drinks each week is deemed low-risk, a steep drop from the previous recommendation.
The previous recommendations from 2011 called for limiting consumption to 15 drinks per week for men and ten drinks per week for women. These new recommendations reflect data from studies conducted over the last decade that link even small amounts of alcohol to multiple types of cancer.
The Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction recently published a report stating that alcohol is a carcinogen associated with seven types of cancer — most notably breast and colon cancer. In addition, alcohol is associated with heart and liver disease, dementia, and lower respiratory infections.
Narrative A
This new guidance is based on scientific evidence. If these policies are implemented, there's a chance to reduce alcohol-related harms and promote health and wellness in Canada. To be successful, warning labels on bottles and cans should go hand in hand with stronger regulations of alcohol advertising and marketing, restrictions on the availability, and a minimum price.
Narrative B
The new guidelines put Canada out of step with other Western nations. In Australia, the 2020 national guidance recommends no more than 10 standard drinks per week. France suggests the same. The US recommendation is no more than two drinks a day for men and one for women, while the UK says no more than 14 "units." It remains to be seen whether Canadians — who love their beer almost as much as their hockey — will accept these recommendations.
Afghanistan: NGOs Resume Some Operations With Female Staff
At least three major aid organizations have partially resumed work in Afghanistan after receiving assurances from Taliban authorities that female staff can work in fields such as health and nutrition.
The aid organizations CARE, Save the Children, and International Rescue Committee (IRC) said that they have resumed their work in the health sector in recent days. Their operations had been suspended since the Taliban banned Afghan women from working in the aid sector in late December.
While the Taliban's acting Ministry of Economy, which ordered the ban, stated that female health workers returned to work in accordance with "our religious and cultural values," negotiations are reportedly underway to also permit women to resume work in other sectors.
Establishment-critical narrative
The outrage over the restriction of women's rights under the Taliban regime is entirely justified. However, it is the families of Afghan women who suffered from the withdrawal of some 150 aid agencies that suspended their operations over the ban on women's staffing. Isolating Afghanistan is counterproductive and halting aid work contradicts the principles of neutrality and humanitarianism. This played into the Taliban's hands.
Pro-establishment narrative
Through their repressive policies, the Taliban have deprived many Afghan women of their livelihoods, multiplying the plight of millions of Afghans. The fact that women may now work for NGOs in the health sector again is no more than a first step. The general ban on employment has made the work of many aid organizations in the country almost impossible and violates humanitarian principles.
Day 329: Deadly Helicopter Crash at Kyiv Kindergarten
A helicopter crash in the Kyiv suburb of Bovary killed at least 17 people, including senior Ukrainian officials, local authorities said on Wednesday.
The crash, reportedly on the grounds of a kindergarten, killed all nine people aboard the emergency services helicopter, police said. This included Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi, his deputy Yevhen Yenin, and State Secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Yurii Lubkovych. A total of 25 people, including 11 children, were reported injured.
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the deaths of children. "The pain is unspeakable," he said. "The helicopter fell on the territory of one of the kindergartens."
Narrative A
At this stage of the tragedy, it is too early to say what are the preliminary causes of this crash. All that can be confirmed is at least 17 people, including children, lost their lives in this horrific incident.
Narrative B
The Security Service of Ukraine is conducting a criminal investigation and all possibilities are being considered; including violation of flight rules, a technical malfunction, and possible deliberate actions to destroy the helicopter.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Macau: Gambling Kingpin Jailed For 18 Years
On Wednesday, a court in China's Special Administrative Region of Macau sentenced "junket king" Alvin Chau to 18 years in jail on 162 charges, including fraud, illegal gambling, and criminal association.
A high-profile billionaire gambling kingpin, Chau was found guilty of fraud, running an illegal gambling empire, and operating illegal bets, but was acquitted of money laundering. He denied all wrongdoing during his four-month trial.
Prosecutors had accused Chau and 20 co-defendants of running an under-the-table bet syndicate worth $139B that swindled Macau out of HK$1b ($128m) over an eight-year period. His defense acknowledged the existence of under-the-table gambling but noted a lack of direct evidence implicating Chau.
Anti-China narrative
Chau's sentence is unfair and signals the end of Macau junkets and VIP gambling. There's no evidence that Suncity ever operated under-the-table multiplier bets or that it was a criminal syndicate, which is probably why it never ran into legal trouble in more than a decade of operating worldwide. The verdict will hit Macau's gambling industry — already reeling because of COVID restrictions — and will make it harder for the city to spring back.
Pro-China narrative
Chau's prosecution sends a message that Beijing will no longer tolerate illicit activities in Macau aimed at aiding mainland gamblers and corrupt PRC officials launder money. Apart from reminding the junket industry that Xi Jinping can pull financial levers on matters of national security, China's anti-corruption drive shows that the PRC will never allow economic power to become concentrated in a small handful of junkets.
Qatar-EU Corruption Scandal: Italian Suspect Cooperates
Antonio Panzeri, a former Italian Member of the European Parliament (MEP), has struck a plea deal with Belgian prosecutors over the alleged bribery scheme between MEPs and foreign governments. Panzeri was among four EU lawmakers detained for their alleged involvement.
Panzeri, along with former European Parliament Vice President Eva Kaili from Greece, her partner Francesco Giorgi, and lobbyist Niccolò Figà-Talamanca, was charged in December after police seized around €1.5M ($1.6M) in cash during multiple raids on an apartment, a house, and a hotel.
Two more suspects have now been implicated, with Belgian authorities requesting that the immunity for socialist MEPs Marc Tarabella (Belgium) and Andrea Cozzolino (Italy) be removed. Panzeri has reportedly confessed to giving Tarabella over €120K for Qatar-related issues.
Pro-establishment narrative
The European Parliament prides itself on being above corruption, which is why the vast majority of MEPs not involved in this case have called for swift and concrete measures to be implemented in response to these bribery allegations. These measures have already been called for, such as the "defense of democracy package," which criminalizes all corruption and issues harsh penalties for any violations.
Establishment-critical narrative
The irony of these so-called socialist European MEPs engaging in bribery and fraud is incredible, and the few arrests made so far may only be the tip of the iceberg. Up to 60 MEPs could potentially be involved — we can sit back and watch this display of hypocrisy as it unfolds.
DeSantis Proposes Permanently Ending COVID Restrictions
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday unveiled a plan to permanently end all COVID restrictions. This includes terminating mask and vaccine mandates statewide in schools and businesses.
More specifically, it would permanently prohibit vaccine passports in the state and bar "employers from hiring or firing based on mRNA jabs." DeSantis said the policy would also protect "free speech for medical practitioners."
This comes as DeSantis claims he's seeking to keep Florida a "refuge of sanity" and protect it from the "biomedical security state." DeSantis was a proponent of COVID vaccines initially, but has become critical of them more recently. His opponents, meanwhile, have accused him of spreading vaccine misinformation.
Democratic narrative
DeSantis continues to put politics over health. New COVID cases have increased by 90% in his state over the past two weeks, yet his response is to attempt to strip private businesses of their right to institute health policies that’ll keep employees safe from a deadly virus. It’s unconscionable.
Republican narrative
COVID science isn’t settled, and too many civil liberties have been trampled on or willfully given up in the face of fear-mongering and the politicization of a health crisis. DeSantis’ proposal is the first step in returning freedom to Floridians and opening the door again to much-needed scientific debate.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that any US state will re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before Feb 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sint Maarten to Cull Entire Vervet Monkeys Population
In the eastern Caribbean, the government of Sint Maarten has approved a plan to exterminate its entire population of vervet monkeys, a species deemed invasive on the Dutch territorial island.
The St. Maarten Nature Foundation’s Invasive Species Project will entrap and euthanize more than 450 monkeys inhabiting the island.
Authorities from the nature foundation say that since the species isn't native to the island, it has no natural predators to keep population sizes in check. The monkeys are also detrimental to the native ecosystem of the island, threatening bird populations and destroying the livelihoods of farmers by raiding crops.
Narrative A
Species management is an important aspect of keeping the island of Sint Maarten healthy. While regrettable, in order to do this the vervet monkey population needs to be culled to avoid it growing out of control. The species is prolific and not in danger of going extinct. Culling the monkey population is the best plan possible.
Narrative B
Exterminating the entire vervet monkey population is unnecessary and cruel. The population can be kept in check in other ways by sterilizing the existing monkeys, or better managing resources to prevent them from turning to endangered bird eggs or destroying agriculture. A harmonious existence between the monkeys and humans on the island is possible.
France Braces for ‘Black Thursday’ General Strike
France is preparing for a "Black Thursday" general strike this week, as unions have called for a "massive mobilization" in protest against government changes to pensions.
The government is attempting to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. The general strike, which is supported by many political parties, including The Greens, The French Communists, The Socialists, and the France Unbowed party, would happen across multiple sectors — the first time the eight main unions have united fully in 12 years.
It is believed that three-quarters of France's teachers will join the strike. The head of the CGT Union, which represents European and international trade, expects "several million people" to demonstrate against the reform.
Left narrative
The determination and spirit shown by the unions and the left-leaning parties are not just an ideological attack against Macron's policies, but also a preemptive strike against the threat of Marine Le Pen's far-right politics. The risk of the Rassemblement National is on everyone's mind, and to fight against such danger via strikes and protests is no longer a moral struggle but a moral obligation.
Right narrative
While the central parties, with the help of the left, seek to use the strikes to pressure the government, there’s no guarantee of success. Much is dependent on whether the unions will decide to follow up on their protests, which will only be decided on the evening of the demonstrations.
Trump to Make '24 Campaign Stop in S. Carolina
Former US Pres. Donald Trump, who announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in November, will appear at a public event in South Carolina on Jan. 28 – his first since the start of his campaign.
Having limited recent appearances to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, he will be joined at the state house by several South Carolina Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Lindsey Graham and Gov. Henry McMaster.
The visit will come amid rumors that two prominent South Carolinians are mulling challenging him for the GOP nomination. Nikki Haley, the state’s former governor and the UN ambassador under Trump, and Sen. Tim Scott are considered potential primary candidates.
Democratic narrative
It’s not like Trump to take such a low-profile approach to anything, let alone a campaign. Yet he’s waited months to face a big crowd outside of Florida, and he’s even keeping this South Carolina event small. Maybe he’s still licking his wounds after so many failed midterm endorsements and is a bit sheepish about having the same support this time around.
Republican narrative
This is the right time for Trump to kick off the public part of his campaign as some polls show he still holds a comfortable lead on his competition while others show a closer race. In South Carolina, Trump enjoys an overflowing amount of support, and this will be a chance for him to bring everyone together to secure the backing he needs in a key early-voting state.
Trump Campaign Asks Facebook for Reinstatement
With his eye on the 2024 election, former Pres. Trump is seeking to regain access to his Facebook account, which has been suspended for two years. Trump’s campaign has reportedly sent a formal petition to Facebook’s parent company Meta asking it to unblock his account.
Trump was banned from Twitter and Facebook following the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riots, with Twitter rendering a permanent suspension while Facebook said it would review Trump’s account in two years. New Twitter CEO Elon Musk reinstated Trump’s account last November.
With his two-year review coming up, Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said the company will render a decision on the former president’s account in the coming weeks. Trump’s campaign wrote a letter asking his account be reinstated on grounds of free speech and open political discourse.
Democratic narrative
Trump is too dangerous to be given a platform to spew hatred and misinformation to hundreds of millions of people. The last time he was on Twitter and Facebook, he instigated an insurrection and attack on America's citadel of democracy. He had a chance but quickly proved he can't be trusted with a powerful platform.
Republican narrative
Trump cannot reasonably be held responsible for the Jan. 6 violence, and must be reinstated on Facebook as he campaigns in 2024. Free speech is the bedrock of the US political system and is America's most fundamental freedom. Tech oligarchs cannot be the ultimate arbiter of who gets to speak their minds — especially when it comes to political candidates.
Nerd narrative
There is a 33% chance that Donald Trump will tweet before March 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.