19 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

New Zealand: PM Ardern Resigns

Facts

  • New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced on Thursday that she will step down from her position on Feb. 7 in advance of the national election scheduled for Oct. 14. She reportedly plans to remain a member of Parliament until April.
  • Citing burnout, she claimed not to have the heart and energy to lead the country anymore after her six "challenging" years in office. Labor members of Parliament will vote for a new leader on Sunday but the contest will go to the party's lay membership if no candidate receives two-thirds support.
  • The announcement made at her Labor party's annual caucus meeting also comes a month after Ardern was caught on a hot mic insulting opposition leader David Seymour during an exchange in which he asked her to apologize for a mistake she made and fix it.
  • New Zealand's third female leader and one of the youngest leaders in the world, Ardern became Prime Minister in 2017 at the age of 37 and led the country through several crises, including the 2019 Christchurch mosque attacks and the COVID pandemic.
  • Her response to the 2019 shootings solidified Ardern's image as a global liberal icon while her administration's response to the COVID outbreak granted her a historic re-election victory in 2020. Recently, however, her party has been trailing in polls amid economic concerns and a perceived rise in violent crimes.
  • Although Ardern had still been performing better than other political leaders, a survey released last month showed that support for her Labor party had fallen from 41% to 33% in a year — five percentage points behind the National Party.

Spin

Left narrative

This resignation is as surprising as Ardern's amazing rise to power in 2017. No one can blame her for being exhausted after leading the country during challenging years marked by disaster and death. She will be remembered as a compassionate and confident leader that has been able to renew the once moribund Labor leadership with energy, focus, sense of purpose, and competency.

Right narrative

While Ardern indeed became an icon to the left and inspired women worldwide, her government's limitations have been troublesome at home. Anger first understandably rose from those opposing COVID mandates and rules — soon spreading among New Zealanders and reducing her popularity due to inflation and mounting violence. Her resignation comes at the right time.

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South Africa Confirms Upcoming Naval Drills With Russia, China

Facts

  • South Africa confirmed on Thursday that it will host a "multilateral maritime exercise" with Russia and China off its coast in February, the second time that such an exercise is held in the presence of the three naval forces.
  • The 10-day drills dubbed "Operation Mosi," which means "smoke" in the local Tswana language, will take place from Feb. 17 to 27 off the port cities of Durban and Richards Bay on the country's east coast.
  • A statement from the South African military said the exercises were intended to strengthen "already flourishing relations" with China and Russia. Pretoria, which recently assumed the chairmanship of the BRICS group of nations, has so far declined to condemn Moscow over the Ukraine war.
  • This joint exercise will reportedly see more than 350 South African Army personnel from various military branches and divisions collaborate on operational activities and information with their Russian and Chinese counterparts.
  • Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Alliance criticized the decision, accusing the government of abandoning its neutral stance on Russia and risking alienating South Africa from the West. Far ahead of Russia, the USA, Germany, Japan, and the UK are among the country's major trading partners.
  • South Africa's announcement comes days before Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's trip to the country and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit two days later to wrap up a three-country visit to Africa.

Spin

Narrative A

It is outrageous that while Russia is raining missiles on Ukraine, Pretoria is confirming joint naval drills with Russia and the no less autocratic and increasingly aggressive China. And while the vast majority of South Africans believe that South Africa should stand by Ukraine, Pretoria's stance is not only immoral but downright foolish, given that the West, not Russia or even China, are South Africa's most important export destinations. Therefore, Pretoria's negligent alienation from its Western allies amounts to an act of political and economic denial that is likely to backfire.

Narrative B

While China and Russia are striving to absorb strategically important South Africa into their vision of a multipolar world order, Pretoria is trying to maintain a balanced position between the emerging BRICS and NATO. Therefore, the upcoming trilateral naval exercises should not be taken as evidence that South Africa is switching sides from NATO and the West to China and Russia. Moreover, South Africa's military doctrine, equipment, and tactics are still heavily dependent on the Western military block, with which it has held more drills with them than with China and Russia. BRICS collaboration doesn't translate to Western alienation.

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Iraq: Stampede Outside Soccer Stadium Kills 4

Facts

  • On Thursday, the Iraqi government announced that a stampede outside Basra International Stadium killed at least four people and left around 80 critically injured.
  • Though Basra Gov. Asaad Al Eidani warned people without tickets not to flock to the stadium, videos shared on social media showed a sea of people gathered outside hoping to watch the country host its first international soccer match in four decades.
  • The stampede reportedly broke out when tens of thousands of fans, arriving from throughout the Gulf region, were told that around 90% of the tickets were sold out ahead of the match.
  • Iraq is hosting the eight-nation Arabian Gulf Cup for the first time since 1979. The home team was set to face Oman in the final, however, the Arab Gulf Cup Football Federation is now considering either postponing the match or moving it to another country.
  • Official Iraqi media reported that giant screens were placed in various public places in Basra to allow fans, mainly from the Gulf states, to watch the match.
  • The stampede comes after another incident occurred at the tournament's opening match, in which commotion was reported in the "VIP" fan section causing a Kuwaiti prince to leave the match.

Spin

Narrative A

The tragedy exposes Basra's decades-old woes. The southern Iraqi city was the battleground for most of Baghdad’s Western-imposed wars for years, which affected infrastructure and economic resources. More recently, it has suffered from unemployment, lack of water supply, security vacuums, and regional conflicts. Though its security infrastructure issues aren't the sole fault of the Iraqi leadership, the tenuous governance structure should have been more prepared.

Narrative B

The government couldn't have predicted this chaotic stampede. This is deeply disappointing as Iraq fought against all odds to improve its regional image through sports events like these. A successful end to the Arabian Gulf Cup could have boosted Gulf tourism to Basra and improved current Iraq-Gulf State relations, but unfortunately, the tragedy tarnished the country's image only a few hours before the final ceremony.

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Trump Allies Seated on House Oversight Committee

Facts

  • Multiple right-flank Republicans, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), and Scott Perry (R-Pa.), have landed seats on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee.
  • The appointments made by the House Steering Committee must now be voted on by the entire GOP conference, which reportedly usually votes in line with the appointments. This comes after the White House stated it wouldn't comply with GOP oversight requests until the new Congress assumed power.
  • Many of the appointed representatives are supporters of former Pres. Trump and have been at the center of controversy in the past. Greene has also been appointed to the Homeland Security Committee.
  • Greene and Gosar were previously stripped of their committee assignments under Democratic House leadership in 2021. Others, including Boebert, Perry, and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), were detractors during the vote for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
  • Many of these appointments are part of the concessions McCarthy made to obtain enough votes to become Speaker, as he agreed to give the "Freedom Caucus" members one-third of committee assignments.

Spin

Democratic narrative

These committee assignments show the GOP's true colors, particularly McCarthy's. Appointing Greene, who's been known for spreading anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim messages as well as conspiracy theories, to the Homeland Security Committee is a direct threat to marginalized groups and the nation as a whole. McCarthy has sold his soul and his party to QAnon, and the country will be worse for it.

Republican narrative

These appointments send a strong message. Under a Republican watch, the Democrats’ anti-American policies will be overturned, and their poor policies will be investigated. Biden's devastating open borders policy, the woke agenda in schools, reckless spending, and the debt crisis must be all properly explored. This is a win for the GOP and the nation.

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Day 330: Zelenskyy Presses Western Partners for Tanks

Facts

  • At the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the West for continued military support, but bemoaned the lack of tanks from countries including the US, Poland, and Germany. Speaking via video link, he criticized a "lack of specific weaponry," adding: "there are times where we shouldn't hesitate ... when someone says, 'I will give tanks if someone else will also share his tanks.'"
  • The comments were a veiled criticism of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who on Wednesday dodged a question about whether Germany will commit its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Poland and Finland have previously said they're prepared to send their tanks, but Germany must give permission for them to be re-exported.
  • A German government source told Reuters that Scholz has repeated the stipulation that Germany will allow its tanks to be sent to Ukraine only if the US agrees to do the same. At time of writing, US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin and Germany's new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius were yet to resolve differences currently causing Berlin to block the sending of the Leopard 2 to Kyiv.
  • Under the condition of anonymity, US officials told the Associated Press on Wednesday that the US was preparing a $2.6B military aid package that'll include nearly 100 Stryker combat vehicles and at least 50 Bradley armored vehicles, but will exclude the Abrams tanks sought by Ukraine.
  • Zelenskyy's ramping up of pressure comes as Austin began hosting two days of meetings with Western counterparts at the US Ramstein air base in southwest Germany on Thursday. The agenda is to coordinate future military aid to Ukraine.
  • Elsewhere, following a New York Times report that the Biden admin is warming to the idea of providing Zelenskyy with weapons capable of striking Crimea, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it would be an "extremely dangerous" escalation. "This will mean taking the conflict to a whole new level which certainly will not bode well in terms of global European security," he said.
  • Meanwhile, over the past day, Russian attacks have been recorded in the regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Donetsk as well as in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Four civilians were reported injured in each of Donetsk and Kherson. Pro-Russia officials said one civilian was reported injured in Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

These meetings must see Germany — which has a unique historical responsibility to uphold the sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine — consent to the use of Leopard 2 tanks by Kyiv. Ukrainians were some of the greatest victims of Hitler and Stalin, and Berlin now has the opportunity to intercede on Putin's war of terror against an innocent people. The whole of the West will judge the courage of Germany on whether it allows tanks to be sent to Kyiv.

Pro-Russia narrative

Germany, like much of the West, is fatigued with the special operation in Ukraine, which involves no-one except Kyiv and Moscow. A recent survey indicated that more than 40% of Germans oppose the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukrainian forces, while a third think the German government is spending too much on intervention in the conflict. The West should not bully Berlin into this unnecessary escalation.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Harvard Medical School Joins Boycott of US News Rankings

Facts

  • On Tuesday the dean of the faculty of medicine at Harvard Medical School, Dr. George Daley, announced that the school no longer will submit data to US News & World Report's annual "best medical schools" ranking. It's the second graduate school from the university to boycott the list in recent months.
  • Daley cited concerns about fairness and equity in withdrawing from the US News rankings, saying that "as unintended consequences, rankings create perverse incentives for institutions to report misleading or inaccurate data..."
  • Last year, deans of prominent law schools announced that their universities would no longer participate in US News' annual law school rankings because of perceived flaws and the view that the rankings did not reflect the values of legal education. High-profile withdrawals prompted US News to make a number of changes in its methodology.
  • US News & World Report has ranked colleges since 1983, a practice the organization defends as necessary in an era when college costs have spiraled out of control and students need a way to compare diverse academic institutions across a single common data set.
  • Eric Gertler of US News, said that the company feels that students deserve access to all information necessary to make a school selection.
  • In addition, Dean Daley wrote, “What matters most to me as dean, alumnus, and faculty member is not a #1 ranking, but the quality and richness of the educational experience we provide at Harvard Medical School that encourages personal growth and lifelong learning."

Spin

Narrative A

US News college rankings may be the most prominent; however, its lists come with major flaws that can mislead impressionable prospective students and negatively impact their college application process. US News focuses far too much on outcomes and neglects students' quality of life, and the rankings perpetuate perceptions of prestige instead of rewarding universities that cater to their students' needs.

Narrative B

US News rankings have been the gold standard for school comparison and offer a very important and useful resource for students. No one claims the rankings to be gospel, and US News' mission is to provide students with more information as they look to make one of the most important decisions in their adult lives.

Nerd narrative

There's a 31% chance that there will be fewer than 400 public year colleges in the US by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Soccer Star Wins Landmark Maternity Lawsuit

Facts

  • On Tuesday, French soccer club Olympique Lyonnaisto — popularly known as Lyon — was ordered to pay former player Sara Bjork Gunnarsdóttir €82K ($88K) in unpaid salaries following a landmark FIFA tribunal ruling last May.
  • According to a statement by the global players' union FIFPro, Lyon must also pay an additional 5% annual interest from Sept. 10, 2022, until the outstanding dues have been cleared. The French club reportedly faces a transfer ban if it fails to pay the compensation within 45 days.
  • The midfielder termed the verdict "a wake-up call for all clubs" and said her victory sends a strong message that all players who get pregnant have "rights and guarantees." "This is not "just business," Gunnarsdóttir tweeted.
  • Gunnarsdóttir joined Lyon in 2020 and won two Champions League titles before leaving for Juventus in July 2022. The 32-year-old captain of the Iceland national team had alleged Lyon did not pay her full salary after she signed off on maternity leave in April 2021.
  • As per FIFA rules, female players are entitled to a maternity leave of at least 14 weeks — at a minimum of two-thirds of their contracted salary. In addition, clubs must offer alternate employment and provide adequate medical and physical support on their return.
  • The club blamed French law for not allowing it to follow FIFA regulations, including the "duty of care" guidelines.

Spin

Narrative A

This ruling highlights the trauma pregnant footballers must endure safeguarding their basic professional rights. Not just the demands of strict training and playing schedules, but also how soccer clubs' severe lack of support for their expecting players during and after pregnancy are usually incompatible with raising a child. Women players are often pressured to push back having children until retirement. However, Gunnarsdóttir's victory indicates the tides are changing.

Narrative B

Only a few professional soccer players have given birth during their playing careers. There are many reasons players may decide not to have children until retirement, though job security is likely a major factor. Biological differences in strength, speed, and stamina are often used as excuses for pay inequality between men's and women's sports. Until systematic sexism in sports is addressed, such victories will elude female players who face highly precarious playing careers.

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'Rust' Shooting: Alec Baldwin Formally Charged with Manslaughter

Facts

  • New Mexico prosecutors have formally charged actor Alec Baldwin and movie set armorer Hannah Gutierrez-Reed with involuntary manslaughter for their involvement in the fatal 2021 shooting of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins on the set of "Rust."
  • In documents released Tuesday, prosecutors allege that "Baldwin's deviation from known standards, practice and protocol directly caused the fatal death," adding that "Baldwin was provided only minimal training on firearms, even after Reed requested more."
  • They add that "According to Reed, Baldwin was distracted and talking on his cell phone...during the training." This comes after Baldwin, in 2021, claimed that he "spent an hour and a half shooting the pistol" and that Gutierrez-Reed gave him "all her safety instructions."
  • Special investigator Robert Shilling alleged evidence also shows "Baldwin was not present" for other "required firearms training," with prosecutors saying the one he was present for only lasted 30 minutes.
  • The indictments claim Gutierrez-Reed also failed to correct safety violations, "directly resulting in Hutchins' death." Video and photo evidence from on set show Baldwin with his finger on the trigger, with the FBI concluding that the trigger had to have been pulled.
  • Gutierrez-Reed's attorneys say prosecutors have "completely misunderstood" the facts of the case and that she "was told by production to focus on props" despite having "pleaded to provide more firearms training." Baldwin's attorneys previously called the charges a "miscarriage of justice." If convicted, they both face up to five years in prison.

Spin

Narrative A

As more information comes out, the evidence seems to show that carelessness was the rule rather than the exception on the set of "Rust." Live rounds were found in multiple locations on set, and guns had reportedly gone off by accident before. The prosecution's case against both Baldwin and Gutierrez-Reed is apparently only growing stronger.

Narrative B

First of all, both Gutierrez-Reed and Baldwin were told by weapons professionals that the gun was not loaded. Secondly, it was Hutchins herself who told Baldwin to point the gun toward her as she was setting the camera up for a scene. This was an incredibly rare tragedy unforeseen by anyone on the film crew, but wrongfully indicting people won't bring Hutchins back and won't provide justice for anyone.

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Senegal: Opposition Leader to Run for President Despite Rape Trial

Facts

  • In a press conference on Thursday, Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko stated that he will run for president next year despite facing rape charges. He added that he cannot envision that any judge would sentence him to the five years in jail he potentially faces.
  • This comes after lawyers for both Sonko and his accuser revealed on Wednesday that a judge ordered him to face a criminal court trial for the alleged rape and death threats against an employee of a beauty salon he reportedly went to for a massage.
  • This trial could potentially threaten his plans to run for president in 2024 and stoke political tensions in the country, with skirmishes having already broken out in March 2021 after Sonko was first summoned and arrested.
  • Sonko and his supporters claim the charges are politically motivated to remove him from the presidential race. He enjoys widespread support among Senegalese youth, who are frustrated with the current Pres. Macky Sall's government.
  • After placing third in the 2019 presidential elections, Sonko is likely to force a runoff election in 2024 — if he's eligible to run — due to the growth of his political base. He is a former civil servant who's seen as an anti-establishment politician.
  • Pres. Sall, who has yet to say whether he will run for a third term, has suggested that this matter is for courts to handle. However, his rivals have been the subject of criminal charges in the past, including two that were eliminated from the past presidential race.

Spin

Narrative A

Ousmane Sonko is the victim of a politically-motivated conspiracy planned by the Sall government, which has the clear intent to eliminate him from the 2024 presidential elections. Senegal's justice system is not independent and is once again working to bar those that would work against the establishment in a healthy manner.

Narrative B

Sonko's position as a rival to Pres. Sall has nothing to do with the charges against him. The charges against him — including his brazen threats of retaliation against the victim — must be deeply investigated. The judiciary must work thoroughly to hold him accountable for his wrongdoing and not let politics sway the decision.

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US Hits Debt Limit, Could Default in June

Facts

  • The US hit its $31.4T borrowing limit Thursday, forcing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to begin using extraordinary cash management measures in order to postpone default until June.
  • The limit on how much the US can borrow to pay for its expenses, known as the debt ceiling, pays military members’ salaries and Medicare benefits, among other things, and is set by Congress.
  • Republicans, who took control of the House in the November midterm elections, are hoping to use a debt ceiling raise as a bargaining chip to get spending cuts from Democratic Pres. Joe Biden. Congress last voted to raise the ceiling in December 2021.
  • The Biden admin. has chastised Republicans for using the debt ceiling as a trade chip and has said it will not negotiate with the GOP. A default could crush the US economy and markets, as it would raise doubts about the country’s ability to pay its debts.
  • Tax cuts and increased spending by Congress, while controlled by each party over the past several decades, have pushed the US to this precipice. The battle between the two parties on this matter could be a sign of things to come now that Republicans rule the House, and Democrats control the White House and Senate.

Spin

Republican narrative

The GOP has taken control of the House with a mandate on several issues, first and foremost stopping wasteful government spending, which skyrocketed during the COVID pandemic. Meanwhile, instead of negotiating, Biden is willing to dangle the economy over a cliff. The president should come to the table for the betterment of the country's present and future — when the budget will hopefully be balanced.

Democratic narrative

There’s nothing to negotiate here. Republicans should raise the ceiling, like they have numerous times under presidents from their own party, and maintain the country’s record of always paying its debts. Spending cuts for the future won’t do anything to affect what the US has already spent. Republicans are playing a dangerous game of roulette with the economy, and Americans are going to feel pain if they don’t relent.

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