23 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

New Zealand: Labour Party Selects Chris Hipkins as PM

Facts

  • On Sunday, New Zealand's ruling Labour Party approved Chris Hipkins to replace Jacinda Ardern as its leader, making him the 41st prime minister in the country's history.
  • Hipkins — who emerged as the only candidate to lead the Labour Party — swiftly appointed Carmel Sepuloni as the nation's first deputy prime minister. Ardern will formally tender her resignation to the governor-general before Hipkins is sworn in on Wednesday.
  • This comes after Ardern unexpectedly declared on Thursday that she would step down from her position, citing burnout and lack of energy for re-election after her six "challenging" years in office.
  • First elected to parliament in 2008, 44-year-old Hipkins was appointed the health minister in July 2020 and later became the COVID response minister.
  • His elevation comes amid a forecast of a deep economic recession marked by high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis.
  • An opinion poll released Friday indicates Ardern's resignation is likely to improve Labour's chances of re-election even though the ruling party's popularity has fallen to 32%, behind the National Party at 37%. A general election will be held on Oct. 14.

Spin

Right narrative

Labour is bleeding public support as dissatisfaction with high inflation and prolonged COVID controls batter New Zealand's tourism industry. Though he's seen as the safest choice for the party, Chris Hipkins faces an uphill task to convince the country that he can turn the economy around. Strict lockdowns and extended border closures knocked the economy and Ardern out and the forecast isn't looking any different for Hipkins.

Left narrative

Ardern's sudden resignation left the Labour party without a successor and in far worse shape to fight the Oct. 14 election. Nonetheless, Hipkins is a household name who can step out of Ardern's shadow and take New Zealand to new heights. A career politician, Hipkins has the political antennae to reconnect the government with loyal voters, drop unpopular policies, and ensure New Zealand's politics reach global prominence.

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California: Mass Shooting Leaves 10 Dead, Dozens Injured

Facts

  • The Los Angeles, California Sheriff's Dept. on Sunday identified Huu Can Tran as the suspected gunman in Saturday's Monterey Park shooting. He allegedly killed ten people celebrating the Lunar New Year at a ballroom dance studio.
  • The mass shooting, which occurred in the evening on Lunar New Year's Eve, also injured at least ten others whom authorities say are being treated in local hospitals — their conditions reportedly range from stable to critical.
  • Law enforcement originally described the suspect as being in his 30s to 50s, though police now say the perpetrator was 72-year-old Tran who was found dead Sunday morning by an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound.
  • A team comprising of the county homicide bureau, Monterey Park Police, the FBI, and the California Office of Emergency Services is investigating the shooting, which took place on West Garvey Avenue — a hub of Asian American supermarkets and restaurants.
  • Police are investigating whether the shooting — which took the lives of five males and five females — was connected to another shooting that took place 20 minutes later at the Lai Lai Ballroom in the nearby city of Alhambra. No injuries were reported at that scene and the suspect fled after patrons took away the weapon.
  • The shooting in Monterey Park comes less than a week after two gunmen killed six people, including a 10-month-old baby, in central California. According to the Gun Violence Archive, more than 44K Americans died from gun violence in 2022.

Spin

Left narrative

This shooting was yet another senseless act of gun violence that tragically disrupted a cultural celebration in America. No matter who the victims or the perpetrators are, these constant tragedies need to come to an end so Americans of all backgrounds can feel safe in their communities.

Right narrative

The classic anti-white and anti-gun talking points were on full display when news of this shooting first broke — the only problem is that the suspect is an Asian man and the weapon he reportedly used was a pistol. This story will probably fade from the headlines in the coming days, as the mainstream media realizes it can no longer use it to moralize about "assault rifles " or "white supremacy."

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.38 small firearms per capita in the US by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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More Classified Documents Discovered at Biden's Home

Facts

  • Pres. Biden’s personal lawyer, Bob Bauer, revealed on Saturday that six additional classified documents were found at the president’s home in Wilmington, Del. during a search conducted by the Dept. of Justice (DOJ).
  • DOJ agents on Friday had full access to the president’s home, including "personally handwritten notes, files, papers, binders, memorabilia, to-do lists, schedules, and reminders going back decades.” The DOJ found documents with classification markings and surrounding materials from Biden's time as a senator and some from his tenure as vice president.
  • Previously, other classified documents were discovered at Biden's Wilmington home and in a private office at a Washington, D.C. think tank. Bauer did not disclose where in the Wilmington home the new documents were found.
  • After the second batch of documents was discovered, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to investigate Biden’s holding of government records after he was vice president.
  • The searches for documents in Biden’s possession have happened over the months since the DOJ attempted to resolve a dispute with former Pres. Trump over possession of classified documents, many of which were recovered during a DOJ search of his Mar-a-Lago residence last summer.

Spin

Democratic narrative

The only similarity between Biden's and Trump’s situations is that both cases involve classified documents. Otherwise, the scenarios are totally different, as Biden has voluntarily informed the DOJ about the discovery of the documents and has been cooperative with the authorities every step of the way. Trump, however, forced the DOJ to get a warrant and conduct a surprise search — we still don’t know if all his documents have been returned.

Republican narrative

Every discovery of documents in Biden’s possession adds to his long list of offenses. If the most recent documents date back to his time in the Senate, then we know he’s been illegally holding them for more than a decade. The White House keeps saying it’s taking this case seriously, but the president has voiced no regrets over the matter, and his spokespeople have been stonewalling questions about the investigation.

Cynical narrative

That two presidents have been called out for possessing documents they shouldn’t have had should shed a light on the issue of overclassification, which has increased exorbitantly over the past decade, creating an administrative nightmare. There must be reforms to the flawed classification system.

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Day 334: Poland to Ask Germany for Permission to Re-Export Leopard Tanks to Ukraine

Facts

  • Poland will formally ask Germany for permission to re-export its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday.
  • After days of mounting pressure on Germany over transfers of the vehicles, Morawiecki added that Poland is building a coalition of countries that are prepared to send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, and said a decision may be made to re-export them even if Germany declines to grant permission.
  • "We will ask [Germany] for permission, but this is a secondary theme," Morawiecki said. "Even if, eventually, we do not get this permission," he continued, "we will hand over our tanks, together with the others, to Ukraine."
  • Nonetheless, Morawiecki's remarks come after Germany's foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, stated on Sunday that, "if we were asked" by Poland for approval to send the tanks, "we would not stand in the way."
  • Elsewhere on Sunday, in his nightly address, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledged to crack down on corruption in his country after Vasyl Lozynskyi, the deputy minister for community development, was arrested over the weekend for allegedly receiving $400K in bribes during the purchase of generators.
  • Zelenskyy also said he will shortly announce a series of "powerful necessary steps" in response to revelations of alleged bribery. "Let me be clear," he said, "this is not going back to how it was before, whether you are close to state institutions or have spent your life chasing a chair."
  • Meanwhile, on the ground, Ukrainian officials reported that one civilian was killed and one was injured in the Kharkiv region. Four civilians were reportedly injured in Donetsk, and one in Zaporizhzhia, while a further three were injured in Kherson. Pro-Russia officials said one civilian was killed in Ukrainian attacks on Luhansk for the same time period.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Germany — which has a unique historical responsibility to uphold the sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine — must consent to the use of Leopard 2 tanks by Kyiv. Ukrainians were some of the greatest victims of Hitler and Stalin, and Berlin now has the opportunity to intercede on Putin's war of terror against an innocent people. The whole of the West will judge the courage of Germany on whether it allows tanks to be sent to Kyiv.

Pro-Russia narrative

Countries that are sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine — be they Germany or another nation — are becoming increasingly intertwined in this conflict which aims to bring the strategic collapse of Russia. Ultimately, it's the Ukrainian people who will pay the highest price for the miscalculation by Western nations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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UK: Conservative Party Chairman Zahawi Fired

Facts

  • Conservative party chairman Nadhim Zahawi has been sacked by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak after an inquiry by an ethics advisor, Sir Laurie Magnus, found that he had been in a "serious breach of the ministerial code."
  • Calls for Zahawi's resignation started after The Guardian reported he paid a penalty to His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) for unpaid taxes while serving as chancellor of the exchequer — the UK's top finance minister.
  • When asked whether Zahawi should stand down during the investigation, Sunak said that the party chairman would continue in his role "as is longstanding practice." The Prime Minister had admitted that there were "clearly questions that need answering" and that the independent investigation would advise him on Zahawi's compliance with the ministerial code.
  • The report stated that Zahawi failed to declare interests prior to becoming chancellor under Boris Johnson that "might be thought to give rise to a conflict." The Labour Party has accused Sunak of being "too weak" over the matter and asked for "full transparency" surrounding when the PM became aware of the HMRC probe into Zahawi.
  • Sunak has defended his actions, arguing that he acted "decisively" and stressed his commitment to "integrity" and following the "right process." The PM's official spokesperson has denied that Zahawi's improper tax affairs were disclosed to Sunak upon his appointment.
  • Senior Tory MP Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, head of the party's backbench 1922 committee, has added to the rising number who are also asking Zahawi to resign as an MP, stating that someone who had committed such a "serious offence" should "consider their position."

Spin

Right narrative

The story of Zahawi's downfall highlights the reality of ministerial life that once the media hounds are onto the scent of a wounded minister they will not let go until they get what they want. Zahawi's refusal to step down honorably, however, only added to the wider narrative of Tory government sleaze and distracted from Sunak's attempt to govern with integrity.

Left narrative

The lack of apology by Zahawi despite his sacking shows the arrogance of Tory ministers. Sunak should've sacked the ex-chairman weeks ago, and out of respect for democracy a General Election is owed to the British people so real change can finally occur.

Nerd narrative

There is an 80% chance that Rishi Sunak will remain the Prime Minister of the UK on January 1st, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Pakistan: Rolling Blackout Leaves 220M Without Power

Facts

  • On Monday, Pakistan suffered a nationwide power outage that left almost 220M people without electricity including the capital city of Islamabad and Peshawar, which have since had a "limited" number of grids restored.
  • Khurrum Dastgir, Pakistan's Energy Minister, said a large power surge occurred in the grid's southern area, causing a rolling blackout across the country's network. The outage that began on Monday morning was in the process of being resolved.
  • Dastgir told a local TV channel that Pakistan's grid temporarily switches off power generation units to save fuel costs during the winter. However, a surge occurred between Jamshoro and Dadu when the grid was restarted, reportedly resulting in a rolling blackout.
  • Dastgir denied that the widespread blackout was a "major crisis" despite hospitals, schools, and other critical facilities remaining without power for over six hours.
  • Pakistan's complex power network has failed multiple times in recent years. In 2021, a fault in a power facility shuttered the entire network —forcing residents to demand a new grid to replace the antiquated transmission system.
  • Following the energy crisis that began last year, Pakistan's government has sought methods for reducing the use of costly, imported liquefied natural gas including closing markets, malls, and government offices early each day.

Spin

Narrative A

Pakistan's government understands that the nation is in the turbulent midst of an energy crisis. The government has stepped up its measures to conserve energy and reduce costs. Not only has the government cut back on days in the work week, but they have also devised a complex and comprehensive energy conservation plan. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has increased the country's efforts to conserve energy by 40% to make up for the previous administration's shortcomings.

Narrative B

Pakistan faces several crises surging from all sides. A financial crunch is colliding with both an energy crisis and the severe impacts of climate change. Rolling blackouts, and repeated flood inundations, are just the beginning. Pakistan and its government have become the poster child for what governments should avoid in their preparations for climate resiliency. Until significant investments are made in resilient infrastructure, Pakistan's power grid will continue to be vulnerable to the onslaught of heatwaves, flooding, and cascading blackouts, weather-related or not.

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Poll: India Likely to Borrow Record $198B in FY 2023-24

Facts

  • Economists polled by Reuters predict that the Indian government will borrow a record ₹16T ($198B) in the fiscal year 2023-24 — unanimously stating infrastructure spending and fiscal discipline must be India's most significant budget priority.
  • Though predictions range between ₹14.8T and ₹17.2T, the median forecast of 43 economists estimates 2023-24's gross borrowing would still be the highest on record. In FY 2022-23, the country borrowed an estimated ₹14.2T.
  • This comes two weeks after India's chief economic advisor asserted that the country, whose GDP is currently $3.4T, will become a $7T economy by 2030.
  • The Indian government's ability to cut borrowing in the near term is expected to be limited due to a fall in tax revenue and slow economic growth, while its debt has more than doubled what it was before the COVID pandemic.
  • Last month, the International Monetary Fund said that India needed a more ambitious plan for fiscal consolidation to ensure debt, which is equal to 83% of annual GDP, would be sustainable in the medium term.
  • The Feb. 1 budget will be the last completely developed before national elections in 2024 and several state elections that will be key tests for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While the Indian economy may be slowing, it is growing above consensus estimates. Under PM Modi’s leadership, India is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G20 in FY 2022/23. As global manufacturers are looking beyond China, India is stepping up to seize the moment and is getting closer to finally meeting its economic potential.

Establishment-critical narrative

Even before COVID struck, India's financial sector was going through tough times. The current overview of the Indian economy is rather grim, as bad debt and rising interest rates are expected to hinder India's economic recovery. There's an urgent need for course correction, or the worsening global crises will soon bring more hardships for India's citizens.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that India's GDP will be at least $12.8 trillion at the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Zients to Replace Klain as Biden’s Chief of Staff

Facts

  • After two years of serving in Pres. Biden's administration, Ron Klain is expected to step down as White House chief of staff in the coming weeks. Klain lasted longer than any other Democratic president's first chief of staff in more than 50 years.
  • Klain, whose departure comes as Biden faces an investigation over the handling of classified documents from before his presidency, will be replaced by former Biden COVID lead Jeff Zients, who briefly left the administration in April, before returning ahead of the midterms.
  • Though no specific date has been set, Klain is expected to leave the White House after Biden's State of the Union address Feb. 7 — a move he's reportedly been telling colleagues in private about since the November midterm elections.
  • Having worked for Biden off and on for more than 30 years, Klain is seen by admirers as uniquely capable of advocating on behalf of the president, which showed during the process of passing the $1.9T COVID relief plan, the $1T bipartisan infrastructure program, and other economic policies.
  • Klain’s tenure was also marked by some controversial social media posts. He retweeted an op-ed in 2021 insisting that year wasn't "all bad;" he also retweeted a poll showing Biden's approval underwater, and one that impacted the president's vaccine mandate.
  • Zients also has a history with Biden, having worked for the then-senator from Delaware in the 1980s, and during Biden’s 1988 and 2008 presidential campaigns. He also worked as acting and deputy director of the Office of the Management and Budget under former Pres. Obama.

Spin

Republican narrative

This administration has been chock-full of chaos and controversy since the beginning, and the departure of Klain — who’s probably taking the opportunity to distance himself from the worsening classified documents situation — won't change much. Zients will likely be the same conduit between an aging Biden and the Democratic Party's demands.

Democratic narrative

For the most part, Biden has enjoyed staff consistency, keeping Klain and his entire cabinet until now — marking him and Obama as the only presidents since Ronald Reagan to keep a full cabinet through the midpoint of their term. Historically, it’s normal to make a change of chief of staff at this point in a presidency. Unlike the Trump administration, the Biden White House has been successful policy-wise and stable personnel-wise.

Nerd narrative

There's a 64% chance that Biden will officially declare his campaign for re-election by Nov. 15, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Japan: Kishida Says Nation 'On the Brink' with Population Decline

Facts

  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said the government will take action to address the nation's declining birthrate, which fell to a record low in 2021. It is "now or never" for Japan, said the political leader.
  • The government has attempted to encourage people to have larger families in recent years, promoting incentives including cash bonuses and improved benefits. However, the promises did not stop births from dropping below 800K last year for the first time — the notable moment came eight years sooner than the government had expected.
  • Kishida said on Monday that Japan was "on the brink" of compromising its social function, and vowed to "create a children-first economy and society." The Prime Minister pledged macroeconomic reform, such as dealing with inflation and revising the seniority based-wage system with the aim of increasing overall salaries.
  • Birthrates in Japan have faced continuous decline for 14 years and now the country has the second-highest median age on the globe at 49 — only the tiny nation of Monaco exceeds that median at 55. The current population of 125M in Japan is predicted to fall to 86.7M by 2060.
  • According to an analysis by YuWa Population Research, Japan is the third-most expensive nation to raise a child globally. Only China and South Korea are more expensive locations — both countries are also struggling with shrinking populations.
  • Some experts argue that the maintenance of strict immigration policies — that have limited the number of people able to settle in Japan and resulted in a largely homogenous society — needs to be relaxed in order to offset the rapid aging of Japan's population.

Spin

Narrative A

This population decline is the result of successive governmental failings to act swiftly or decisively on the issue of Japan's aging demographics. Despite vague promises to address slow growth and low pay in recent months, Kishida has failed to intervene with private employers to raise wages or commit government funding to make having children more affordable. The Prime Minister has continually dodged public debate over who will fund these necessary incentives to protect his electoral chances.

Narrative B

Japan's declining birthrate is not only a political issue — the declining population is inextricably linked to the nation's hostility to immigration. Only about 3% of its population is foreign-born and, until Japan adapts to be more accepting of a homogenous, immigration-based society that challenges the rigid hierarchy at the center of its culture, it will continue to face economic and social decline. This demographic crunch can't be blamed on the prime minister alone.

Nerd narrative

There is a 57% chance that any country will have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Spotify Laying Off 6% of its Workforce

Facts

  • Music streaming platform Spotify announced Monday the company will be laying off 6% of its global workforce, which is about 600 employees.
  • Spotify has a total workforce of around 9.8K people, employing 5.4K people in the US and 1.9K in Sweden.
  • Daniel Ek, Spotify’s CEO, said last year the company would slow hiring but did not plan layoffs. Ek said Monday, “Over the last few months we’ve made a considerable effort to rein-in [sic] costs, but it simply hasn’t been enough..."
  • The layoffs were announced in a filing, with reports saying the job cuts will impact all departments across the company's workforce.
  • Spotify also announced Dawn Ostroff, chief content officer, was leaving the company. Spotify's stock jumped more than 2% in early trading Monday after the announcement.
  • These layoffs come as more than 200K tech industry workers have been laid off since the start of 2022 — with layoffs recently announced at tech giants Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta as well as other companies.

Spin

Narrative A

For far too long, Spotify focused on unsustainable growth rather than turning a profit. Investors pressured the platform to focus on ad sales and revenue, but its management refused. Now, this poor business decision is coming back to haunt the company and forcing it to restructure after promising not to let people go.

Narrative B

Spotify isn’t alone in feeling the pain of a dip in consumer spending because of inflation, and funding drying up because of higher interest rates. In the larger picture, Spotify and other tech companies are laying off a small percentage of their staff. This mini reset will help them thrive moving forward.

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France: Watchdog Warns Society Remains "Very Sexist"

Facts

  • The government-created High Council for Equity between Women and Men (HCE) released its annual report on Monday, in which it claimed that French society “remains very sexist in all of its spheres.”
  • The equality watchdog called for a national “emergency plan” in response to the alleged “massive, violent and sometimes lethal consequences” of sexism against women. According to its report, over 10% of women reported that they experienced sexual violence.
  • The HCE surveyed 2.5k people in France and found that more people are aware of gender inequality due to the “#MeToo” movement, but the report added that "bias and gender stereotypes, sexist cliches and everyday sexism are still commonplace."
  • 20% of males between the ages of 25 and 34 said bragging about sexual exploits was necessary to “be respected as a man in society.” 25% of men say sexual violence gets “too much attention,” while 14% of women said they had a sexual act forced on them.
  • HCE’s president, Sylvie Pierre-Brossolette, sounded the alarm about sexism among younger men which she attributes to culture from social media and pornography. She adds that sexism must be fought as early as possible.
  • The HCE will present its findings to French Pres. Macron on Wednesday; the council proposed a 10-point plan to counter sexism including regulation. Macron’s admin. has taken a progressive approach to women’s issues offering free birth control to women up to 25 years old and attempting to constitutionally guarantee abortion rights.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Sexism has stained France for generations, and it is only getting worse. Women continue to be mistreated and abused while men’s attitudes toward women become colder and more vitriolic. The “macho” response to feminist movements has brought even more violence and harm to women, and France must act quickly and decisively to combat sexism.

Pro-establishment narrative

While France’s society has been patriarchal in the past and women’s rights have not been where they need to be, French officials are working to promote equality amongst the genders. Social norms that have been reinforced for decades and centuries cannot be undone within a few years, but France is working to make the country more equitable for everyone.

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