New Zealand: Labour Party Selects Chris Hipkins as PM
On Sunday, New Zealand's ruling Labour Party approved Chris Hipkins to replace Jacinda Ardern as its leader, making him the 41st prime minister in the country's history.
Hipkins — who emerged as the only candidate to lead the Labour Party — swiftly appointed Carmel Sepuloni as the nation's first deputy prime minister. Ardern will formally tender her resignation to the governor-general before Hipkins is sworn in on Wednesday.
This comes after Ardern unexpectedly declared on Thursday that she would step down from her position, citing burnout and lack of energy for re-election after her six "challenging" years in office.
Right narrative
Labour is bleeding public support as dissatisfaction with high inflation and prolonged COVID controls batter New Zealand's tourism industry. Though he's seen as the safest choice for the party, Chris Hipkins faces an uphill task to convince the country that he can turn the economy around. Strict lockdowns and extended border closures knocked the economy and Ardern out and the forecast isn't looking any different for Hipkins.
Left narrative
Ardern's sudden resignation left the Labour party without a successor and in far worse shape to fight the Oct. 14 election. Nonetheless, Hipkins is a household name who can step out of Ardern's shadow and take New Zealand to new heights. A career politician, Hipkins has the political antennae to reconnect the government with loyal voters, drop unpopular policies, and ensure New Zealand's politics reach global prominence.
California: Mass Shooting Leaves 10 Dead, Dozens Injured
The Los Angeles, California Sheriff's Dept. on Sunday identified Huu Can Tran as the suspected gunman in Saturday's Monterey Park shooting. He allegedly killed ten people celebrating the Lunar New Year at a ballroom dance studio.
The mass shooting, which occurred in the evening on Lunar New Year's Eve, also injured at least ten others whom authorities say are being treated in local hospitals — their conditions reportedly range from stable to critical.
Law enforcement originally described the suspect as being in his 30s to 50s, though police now say the perpetrator was 72-year-old Tran who was found dead Sunday morning by an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound.
Left narrative
This shooting was yet another senseless act of gun violence that tragically disrupted a cultural celebration in America. No matter who the victims or the perpetrators are, these constant tragedies need to come to an end so Americans of all backgrounds can feel safe in their communities.
Right narrative
The classic anti-white and anti-gun talking points were on full display when news of this shooting first broke — the only problem is that the suspect is an Asian man and the weapon he reportedly used was a pistol. This story will probably fade from the headlines in the coming days, as the mainstream media realizes it can no longer use it to moralize about "assault rifles " or "white supremacy."
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.38 small firearms per capita in the US by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
More Classified Documents Discovered at Biden's Home
Pres. Biden’s personal lawyer, Bob Bauer, revealed on Saturday that six additional classified documents were found at the president’s home in Wilmington, Del. during a search conducted by the Dept. of Justice (DOJ).
DOJ agents on Friday had full access to the president’s home, including "personally handwritten notes, files, papers, binders, memorabilia, to-do lists, schedules, and reminders going back decades.” The DOJ found documents with classification markings and surrounding materials from Biden's time as a senator and some from his tenure as vice president.
Previously, other classified documents were discovered at Biden's Wilmington home and in a private office at a Washington, D.C. think tank. Bauer did not disclose where in the Wilmington home the new documents were found.
Democratic narrative
The only similarity between Biden's and Trump’s situations is that both cases involve classified documents. Otherwise, the scenarios are totally different, as Biden has voluntarily informed the DOJ about the discovery of the documents and has been cooperative with the authorities every step of the way. Trump, however, forced the DOJ to get a warrant and conduct a surprise search — we still don’t know if all his documents have been returned.
Republican narrative
Every discovery of documents in Biden’s possession adds to his long list of offenses. If the most recent documents date back to his time in the Senate, then we know he’s been illegally holding them for more than a decade. The White House keeps saying it’s taking this case seriously, but the president has voiced no regrets over the matter, and his spokespeople have been stonewalling questions about the investigation.
Cynical narrative
That two presidents have been called out for possessing documents they shouldn’t have had should shed a light on the issue of overclassification, which has increased exorbitantly over the past decade, creating an administrative nightmare. There must be reforms to the flawed classification system.
Day 334: Poland to Ask Germany for Permission to Re-Export Leopard Tanks to Ukraine
Poland will formally ask Germany for permission to re-export its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday.
After days of mounting pressure on Germany over transfers of the vehicles, Morawiecki added that Poland is building a coalition of countries that are prepared to send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, and said a decision may be made to re-export them even if Germany declines to grant permission.
"We will ask [Germany] for permission, but this is a secondary theme," Morawiecki said. "Even if, eventually, we do not get this permission," he continued, "we will hand over our tanks, together with the others, to Ukraine."
Pro-establishment narrative
Germany — which has a unique historical responsibility to uphold the sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine — must consent to the use of Leopard 2 tanks by Kyiv. Ukrainians were some of the greatest victims of Hitler and Stalin, and Berlin now has the opportunity to intercede on Putin's war of terror against an innocent people. The whole of the West will judge the courage of Germany on whether it allows tanks to be sent to Kyiv.
Pro-Russia narrative
Countries that are sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine — be they Germany or another nation — are becoming increasingly intertwined in this conflict which aims to bring the strategic collapse of Russia. Ultimately, it's the Ukrainian people who will pay the highest price for the miscalculation by Western nations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Conservative Party Chairman Zahawi Fired
Conservative party chairman Nadhim Zahawi has been sacked by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak after an inquiry by an ethics advisor, Sir Laurie Magnus, found that he had been in a "serious breach of the ministerial code."
Calls for Zahawi's resignation started after The Guardian reported he paid a penalty to His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) for unpaid taxes while serving as chancellor of the exchequer — the UK's top finance minister.
When asked whether Zahawi should stand down during the investigation, Sunak said that the party chairman would continue in his role "as is longstanding practice." The Prime Minister had admitted that there were "clearly questions that need answering" and that the independent investigation would advise him on Zahawi's compliance with the ministerial code.
Right narrative
The story of Zahawi's downfall highlights the reality of ministerial life that once the media hounds are onto the scent of a wounded minister they will not let go until they get what they want. Zahawi's refusal to step down honorably, however, only added to the wider narrative of Tory government sleaze and distracted from Sunak's attempt to govern with integrity.
Left narrative
The lack of apology by Zahawi despite his sacking shows the arrogance of Tory ministers. Sunak should've sacked the ex-chairman weeks ago, and out of respect for democracy a General Election is owed to the British people so real change can finally occur.
Nerd narrative
There is an 80% chance that Rishi Sunak will remain the Prime Minister of the UK on January 1st, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan: Rolling Blackout Leaves 220M Without Power
On Monday, Pakistan suffered a nationwide power outage that left almost 220M people without electricity including the capital city of Islamabad and Peshawar, which have since had a "limited" number of grids restored.
Khurrum Dastgir, Pakistan's Energy Minister, said a large power surge occurred in the grid's southern area, causing a rolling blackout across the country's network. The outage that began on Monday morning was in the process of being resolved.
Dastgir told a local TV channel that Pakistan's grid temporarily switches off power generation units to save fuel costs during the winter. However, a surge occurred between Jamshoro and Dadu when the grid was restarted, reportedly resulting in a rolling blackout.
Narrative A
Pakistan's government understands that the nation is in the turbulent midst of an energy crisis. The government has stepped up its measures to conserve energy and reduce costs. Not only has the government cut back on days in the work week, but they have also devised a complex and comprehensive energy conservation plan. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has increased the country's efforts to conserve energy by 40% to make up for the previous administration's shortcomings.
Narrative B
Pakistan faces several crises surging from all sides. A financial crunch is colliding with both an energy crisis and the severe impacts of climate change. Rolling blackouts, and repeated flood inundations, are just the beginning. Pakistan and its government have become the poster child for what governments should avoid in their preparations for climate resiliency. Until significant investments are made in resilient infrastructure, Pakistan's power grid will continue to be vulnerable to the onslaught of heatwaves, flooding, and cascading blackouts, weather-related or not.
Poll: India Likely to Borrow Record $198B in FY 2023-24
Economists polled by Reuters predict that the Indian government will borrow a record ₹16T ($198B) in the fiscal year 2023-24 — unanimously stating infrastructure spending and fiscal discipline must be India's most significant budget priority.
Though predictions range between ₹14.8T and ₹17.2T, the median forecast of 43 economists estimates 2023-24's gross borrowing would still be the highest on record. In FY 2022-23, the country borrowed an estimated ₹14.2T.
This comes two weeks after India's chief economic advisor asserted that the country, whose GDP is currently $3.4T, will become a $7T economy by 2030.
Pro-establishment narrative
While the Indian economy may be slowing, it is growing above consensus estimates. Under PM Modi’s leadership, India is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G20 in FY 2022/23. As global manufacturers are looking beyond China, India is stepping up to seize the moment and is getting closer to finally meeting its economic potential.
Establishment-critical narrative
Even before COVID struck, India's financial sector was going through tough times. The current overview of the Indian economy is rather grim, as bad debt and rising interest rates are expected to hinder India's economic recovery. There's an urgent need for course correction, or the worsening global crises will soon bring more hardships for India's citizens.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that India's GDP will be at least $12.8 trillion at the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Zients to Replace Klain as Biden’s Chief of Staff
After two years of serving in Pres. Biden's administration, Ron Klain is expected to step down as White House chief of staff in the coming weeks. Klain lasted longer than any other Democratic president's first chief of staff in more than 50 years.
Klain, whose departure comes as Biden faces an investigation over the handling of classified documents from before his presidency, will be replaced by former Biden COVID lead Jeff Zients, who briefly left the administration in April, before returning ahead of the midterms.
Though no specific date has been set, Klain is expected to leave the White House after Biden's State of the Union address Feb. 7 — a move he's reportedly been telling colleagues in private about since the November midterm elections.
Republican narrative
This administration has been chock-full of chaos and controversy since the beginning, and the departure of Klain — who’s probably taking the opportunity to distance himself from the worsening classified documents situation — won't change much. Zients will likely be the same conduit between an aging Biden and the Democratic Party's demands.
Democratic narrative
For the most part, Biden has enjoyed staff consistency, keeping Klain and his entire cabinet until now — marking him and Obama as the only presidents since Ronald Reagan to keep a full cabinet through the midpoint of their term. Historically, it’s normal to make a change of chief of staff at this point in a presidency. Unlike the Trump administration, the Biden White House has been successful policy-wise and stable personnel-wise.
Nerd narrative
There's a 64% chance that Biden will officially declare his campaign for re-election by Nov. 15, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Japan: Kishida Says Nation 'On the Brink' with Population Decline
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said the government will take action to address the nation's declining birthrate, which fell to a record low in 2021. It is "now or never" for Japan, said the political leader.
The government has attempted to encourage people to have larger families in recent years, promoting incentives including cash bonuses and improved benefits. However, the promises did not stop births from dropping below 800K last year for the first time — the notable moment came eight years sooner than the government had expected.
Kishida said on Monday that Japan was "on the brink" of compromising its social function, and vowed to "create a children-first economy and society." The Prime Minister pledged macroeconomic reform, such as dealing with inflation and revising the seniority based-wage system with the aim of increasing overall salaries.
Narrative A
This population decline is the result of successive governmental failings to act swiftly or decisively on the issue of Japan's aging demographics. Despite vague promises to address slow growth and low pay in recent months, Kishida has failed to intervene with private employers to raise wages or commit government funding to make having children more affordable. The Prime Minister has continually dodged public debate over who will fund these necessary incentives to protect his electoral chances.
Narrative B
Japan's declining birthrate is not only a political issue — the declining population is inextricably linked to the nation's hostility to immigration. Only about 3% of its population is foreign-born and, until Japan adapts to be more accepting of a homogenous, immigration-based society that challenges the rigid hierarchy at the center of its culture, it will continue to face economic and social decline. This demographic crunch can't be blamed on the prime minister alone.
Nerd narrative
There is a 57% chance that any country will have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Spotify Laying Off 6% of its Workforce
Music streaming platform Spotify announced Monday the company will be laying off 6% of its global workforce, which is about 600 employees.
Spotify has a total workforce of around 9.8K people, employing 5.4K people in the US and 1.9K in Sweden.
Daniel Ek, Spotify’s CEO, said last year the company would slow hiring but did not plan layoffs. Ek said Monday, “Over the last few months we’ve made a considerable effort to rein-in [sic] costs, but it simply hasn’t been enough..."
Narrative A
For far too long, Spotify focused on unsustainable growth rather than turning a profit. Investors pressured the platform to focus on ad sales and revenue, but its management refused. Now, this poor business decision is coming back to haunt the company and forcing it to restructure after promising not to let people go.
Narrative B
Spotify isn’t alone in feeling the pain of a dip in consumer spending because of inflation, and funding drying up because of higher interest rates. In the larger picture, Spotify and other tech companies are laying off a small percentage of their staff. This mini reset will help them thrive moving forward.
France: Watchdog Warns Society Remains "Very Sexist"
The government-created High Council for Equity between Women and Men (HCE) released its annual report on Monday, in which it claimed that French society “remains very sexist in all of its spheres.”
The equality watchdog called for a national “emergency plan” in response to the alleged “massive, violent and sometimes lethal consequences” of sexism against women. According to its report, over 10% of women reported that they experienced sexual violence.
The HCE surveyed 2.5k people in France and found that more people are aware of gender inequality due to the “#MeToo” movement, but the report added that "bias and gender stereotypes, sexist cliches and everyday sexism are still commonplace."
Establishment-critical narrative
Sexism has stained France for generations, and it is only getting worse. Women continue to be mistreated and abused while men’s attitudes toward women become colder and more vitriolic. The “macho” response to feminist movements has brought even more violence and harm to women, and France must act quickly and decisively to combat sexism.
Pro-establishment narrative
While France’s society has been patriarchal in the past and women’s rights have not been where they need to be, French officials are working to promote equality amongst the genders. Social norms that have been reinforced for decades and centuries cannot be undone within a few years, but France is working to make the country more equitable for everyone.