Right narrative

Labour is bleeding public support as dissatisfaction with high inflation and prolonged COVID controls batter New Zealand's tourism industry. Though he's seen as the safest choice for the party, Chris Hipkins faces an uphill task to convince the country that he can turn the economy around. Strict lockdowns and extended border closures knocked the economy and Ardern out and the forecast isn't looking any different for Hipkins.

Left narrative

Ardern's sudden resignation left the Labour party without a successor and in far worse shape to fight the Oct. 14 election. Nonetheless, Hipkins is a household name who can step out of Ardern's shadow and take New Zealand to new heights. A career politician, Hipkins has the political antennae to reconnect the government with loyal voters, drop unpopular policies, and ensure New Zealand's politics reach global prominence.

Left narrative

This shooting was yet another senseless act of gun violence that tragically disrupted a cultural celebration in America. No matter who the victims or the perpetrators are, these constant tragedies need to come to an end so Americans of all backgrounds can feel safe in their communities.

Right narrative

The classic anti-white and anti-gun talking points were on full display when news of this shooting first broke — the only problem is that the suspect is an Asian man and the weapon he reportedly used was a pistol. This story will probably fade from the headlines in the coming days, as the mainstream media realizes it can no longer use it to moralize about "assault rifles " or "white supremacy."

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.38 small firearms per capita in the US by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The only similarity between Biden's and Trump’s situations is that both cases involve classified documents. Otherwise, the scenarios are totally different, as Biden has voluntarily informed the DOJ about the discovery of the documents and has been cooperative with the authorities every step of the way. Trump, however, forced the DOJ to get a warrant and conduct a surprise search — we still don’t know if all his documents have been returned.

Republican narrative

Every discovery of documents in Biden’s possession adds to his long list of offenses. If the most recent documents date back to his time in the Senate, then we know he’s been illegally holding them for more than a decade. The White House keeps saying it’s taking this case seriously, but the president has voiced no regrets over the matter, and his spokespeople have been stonewalling questions about the investigation.

Cynical narrative

That two presidents have been called out for possessing documents they shouldn’t have had should shed a light on the issue of overclassification, which has increased exorbitantly over the past decade, creating an administrative nightmare. There must be reforms to the flawed classification system.

Pro-establishment narrative

Germany — which has a unique historical responsibility to uphold the sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine — must consent to the use of Leopard 2 tanks by Kyiv. Ukrainians were some of the greatest victims of Hitler and Stalin, and Berlin now has the opportunity to intercede on Putin's war of terror against an innocent people. The whole of the West will judge the courage of Germany on whether it allows tanks to be sent to Kyiv.

Pro-Russia narrative

Countries that are sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine — be they Germany or another nation — are becoming increasingly intertwined in this conflict which aims to bring the strategic collapse of Russia. Ultimately, it's the Ukrainian people who will pay the highest price for the miscalculation by Western nations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

The story of Zahawi's downfall highlights the reality of ministerial life that once the media hounds are onto the scent of a wounded minister they will not let go until they get what they want. Zahawi's refusal to step down honorably, however, only added to the wider narrative of Tory government sleaze and distracted from Sunak's attempt to govern with integrity.

Left narrative

The lack of apology by Zahawi despite his sacking shows the arrogance of Tory ministers. Sunak should've sacked the ex-chairman weeks ago, and out of respect for democracy a General Election is owed to the British people so real change can finally occur.

Nerd narrative

There is an 80% chance that Rishi Sunak will remain the Prime Minister of the UK on January 1st, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Pakistan's government understands that the nation is in the turbulent midst of an energy crisis. The government has stepped up its measures to conserve energy and reduce costs. Not only has the government cut back on days in the work week, but they have also devised a complex and comprehensive energy conservation plan. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has increased the country's efforts to conserve energy by 40% to make up for the previous administration's shortcomings.

Narrative B

Pakistan faces several crises surging from all sides. A financial crunch is colliding with both an energy crisis and the severe impacts of climate change. Rolling blackouts, and repeated flood inundations, are just the beginning. Pakistan and its government have become the poster child for what governments should avoid in their preparations for climate resiliency. Until significant investments are made in resilient infrastructure, Pakistan's power grid will continue to be vulnerable to the onslaught of heatwaves, flooding, and cascading blackouts, weather-related or not.

Pro-establishment narrative

While the Indian economy may be slowing, it is growing above consensus estimates. Under PM Modi’s leadership, India is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G20 in FY 2022/23. As global manufacturers are looking beyond China, India is stepping up to seize the moment and is getting closer to finally meeting its economic potential.

Establishment-critical narrative

Even before COVID struck, India's financial sector was going through tough times. The current overview of the Indian economy is rather grim, as bad debt and rising interest rates are expected to hinder India's economic recovery. There's an urgent need for course correction, or the worsening global crises will soon bring more hardships for India's citizens.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that India's GDP will be at least $12.8 trillion at the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

This administration has been chock-full of chaos and controversy since the beginning, and the departure of Klain — who’s probably taking the opportunity to distance himself from the worsening classified documents situation — won't change much. Zients will likely be the same conduit between an aging Biden and the Democratic Party's demands.

Democratic narrative

For the most part, Biden has enjoyed staff consistency, keeping Klain and his entire cabinet until now — marking him and Obama as the only presidents since Ronald Reagan to keep a full cabinet through the midpoint of their term. Historically, it’s normal to make a change of chief of staff at this point in a presidency. Unlike the Trump administration, the Biden White House has been successful policy-wise and stable personnel-wise.

Nerd narrative

There's a 64% chance that Biden will officially declare his campaign for re-election by Nov. 15, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This population decline is the result of successive governmental failings to act swiftly or decisively on the issue of Japan's aging demographics. Despite vague promises to address slow growth and low pay in recent months, Kishida has failed to intervene with private employers to raise wages or commit government funding to make having children more affordable. The Prime Minister has continually dodged public debate over who will fund these necessary incentives to protect his electoral chances.

Narrative B

Japan's declining birthrate is not only a political issue — the declining population is inextricably linked to the nation's hostility to immigration. Only about 3% of its population is foreign-born and, until Japan adapts to be more accepting of a homogenous, immigration-based society that challenges the rigid hierarchy at the center of its culture, it will continue to face economic and social decline. This demographic crunch can't be blamed on the prime minister alone.

Nerd narrative

There is a 57% chance that any country will have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

For far too long, Spotify focused on unsustainable growth rather than turning a profit. Investors pressured the platform to focus on ad sales and revenue, but its management refused. Now, this poor business decision is coming back to haunt the company and forcing it to restructure after promising not to let people go.

Narrative B

Spotify isn’t alone in feeling the pain of a dip in consumer spending because of inflation, and funding drying up because of higher interest rates. In the larger picture, Spotify and other tech companies are laying off a small percentage of their staff. This mini reset will help them thrive moving forward.

Establishment-critical narrative

Sexism has stained France for generations, and it is only getting worse. Women continue to be mistreated and abused while men’s attitudes toward women become colder and more vitriolic. The “macho” response to feminist movements has brought even more violence and harm to women, and France must act quickly and decisively to combat sexism.

Pro-establishment narrative

While France’s society has been patriarchal in the past and women’s rights have not been where they need to be, French officials are working to promote equality amongst the genders. Social norms that have been reinforced for decades and centuries cannot be undone within a few years, but France is working to make the country more equitable for everyone.