26 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

Trump's Facebook, Instagram Accounts Reinstated

Facts

  • Meta Platforms Inc. on Thursday restored former Pres. Donald Trump’s Facebook and Instagram accounts, which had been suspended since the Jan. 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol. Meta had announced its plan to restore Trump last month.
  • In a blog post last month, Nick Clegg, Meta's president of global affairs, said the company has put “new guardrails in place to deter repeat offenses," adding "the public should be able to hear what their politicians are saying" in order to make "informed choices."
  • Classifying Trump's prior suspension as "an extraordinary decision taken in extraordinary circumstances," Clegg said the former president would be suspended for up to two years if his posts further violate Meta’s community standards.
  • Meta was a critical source of fundraising for Trump's political campaigns, and the former president reportedly spent nearly $20M on Facebook marketing in 2019 alone.
  • Trump reacted to last month's announcement on his social media platform, Truth Social, saying, "Such a thing should never again happen to a sitting President or anybody else who is not deserving of retribution!"
  • Trump's Twitter account was reinstated in November, coinciding with his announcement that he will again campaign for the White House in 2024. But he has not posted anything on Twitter since his reinstatement.

Spin

Democratic narrative

The reinstatement of Trump's accounts on Facebook and Instagram — key vehicles for political outreach and fundraising — could change the trajectory of the 2024 presidential election, with Trump once again repeating debunked election fraud claims. Allowing the former president, who allegedly incited an insurrection, to post divisive and inflammatory narratives sets a dangerous precedent.

Republican narrative

Meta has been disproportionately silencing conservative voices all the way up to the former president. Instead of making substantial efforts to stop the spread of dangerous misinformation in real-time, it dramatically distorted and inhibited the public discourse. Censorship by Big Tech should have been stopped long ago. Hopefully, political voices will not be silenced anymore, and social media platforms will resist inappropriately interfering in the American political and election process.

Narrative C

Regardless of political ideologies, banning political figures on social media platforms is a slippery slope. Given the importance of protecting free speech, social media platforms must not engage in political censorship. If they do, they must refrain from imposing penalties on an ad-hoc or political basis. This is an issue that crosses party lines.

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Day 337: At Least One Killed in Renewed Missile Attack on Kyiv

Facts

  • Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has said at least one person was killed and two more were injured after Russia launched renewed missile attacks on the capital on Thursday. He also confirmed that those with injuries had been taken to hospital.
  • Blasts were also recorded in the regions of Vinnytsia and Odesa, where officials said two energy infrastructure facilities were struck. There were no reports of additional civilian casualties resulting from the attacks.
  • Russian strikes also targeted an energy facility in the Zaporizhzhia region overnight, while extensive shelling has continued to be reported in the Kherson region. Ukrainian officials said three civilians were killed and nine more have been injured in Russian attacks on Kherson in the past 24 hours.
  • Meanwhile, in Donetsk, Russian attacks in the region killed one civilian and injured seven more over the past day. Pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that two civilians were injured in Ukrainian attacks for the same time period.
  • Elsewhere, following announcements from the US and Germany that they would both send battle tanks to Ukraine — M1 Abrams and Leopard 2s, respectively — Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked both countries for the "historic achievement" in his nightly address on Wednesday. However, he quickly turned his attention to Ukraine's desire for long-range missiles and fighter jets, which allies have thus far refused to send.
  • "We have to unlock the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine," Zelenskyy said. "It is important," he continued, "for us to expand our cooperation in artillery. We have to achieve the supply of aircraft to Ukraine."
  • Meanwhile, following the announcement that the US and Germany will send tanks to Kyiv, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that Russia increasingly views the actions of both countries as "direct involvement" in the conflict.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 8% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Concerns Over India's Plan for Digital IDs in Kashmir

Facts

  • The Indian government's decision to introduce a unique eight-digit family identity card for residents in Jammu and Kashmir (JK) has sparked surveillance and privacy concerns in the disputed Himalayan region.
  • The implementation of a unique alpha-numeric code — called JK Family ID — is reportedly aimed at creating a transparent database of JK families, which will have information on births, deaths, and marriages of eligible beneficiaries.
  • According to the government, the new digital IDs will improve access to state welfare benefits such as subsidized food grains, free medical treatment, old age pensions, and scholarships.
  • Meanwhile, many mainstream political parties in Indian-administered Kashmir oppose the proposed JK Family ID over privacy and data safety concerns.
  • These concerns echo those of activists that allege loopholes in India's national digital ID — called Aadhaar — pose risks of data leaks since it was introduced in 2009 to streamline welfare payments. Authorities have pledged to collect data with beneficiaries' consent and strengthen cybersecurity measures.
  • Meanwhile, some JK residents reportedly fear the unique family ID is the ruling Hindu nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party's way of exerting greater control over the Muslim-majority region, which lost its autonomous status and was split into two union territories in 2019.

Spin

Narrative A

The sole purpose of allotting JK Family IDs is to allow the needy to receive welfare benefits unhindered. To thwart threats and secure sensitive and essential data, the state government will develop an information security policy per all applicable laws and rules on data protection. By doubting the government's intentions, political parties are blocking the region's prosperity and fanning communal hatred.

Narrative B

This exercise is not only a waste of time and resources but also an intrusive policy under the guise of promoting the effective deliverance of existing benefits. By creating a personal database of all JK families, the Indian government just wants to keep a watch on Kashmiris. However, the move will backfire as it will deepen the suspicion against the Indian government in Jammu and Kashmir.

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Project Veritas: Pfizer Allegedly Exploring 'Mutating' COVID For New Vaccines

Facts

  • In a new release from Project Veritas — a US undercover journalism outlet — an alleged senior Pfizer employee appears to admit that the drug company is exploring "mutating" the COVID virus so that the firm can preemptively create new vaccines.
  • In the clandestine video, which Project Veritas said featured Jordon Trishton Walker — an individual they said was confirmed as a Pfizer director of research and development in strategic operations, the individual said COVID vaccines were a "cash cow" for the drug company.
  • The interviewee says the company is exploring mutating "it [COVID] ourselves" to "preemptively develop new vaccines," adding that "If we're gonna do that though, there's a risk of like, as you could imagine — no one wants to be having a pharma company mutating... viruses."
  • After urging the undercover reporter not to "tell anyone," he explained, "The way it [the experiment] would work is that we put the virus in monkeys, and we successively cause them to keep infecting each other, and we collect serial samples from them."
  • He further stated: "From what I’ve heard is they [Pfizer scientists] are optimizing it [COVID mutation process], but they’re going slow because everyone is very cautious — obviously they don’t want to accelerate it too much. I think they are also just trying to do it as an exploratory thing because you obviously don’t want to advertise that you are figuring out future mutations."
  • The individual also claimed that the process was different from gain-of-function research — a controversial method of cultivating potent viruses in labs that has been rumored by some to be linked with the emergence of COVID. He described it as "directed evolution."

Spin

Right narrative

This is an apparent shocking admission from a senior Pfizer employee about how the drug company is seeking to continue making large profits off the back of COVID vaccines. The processes described are extremely dangerous and regulatory scrutiny is needed immediately.

Left narrative

Everything heard in this video must be taken with a grain of salt, as not only is it unclear whether the interviewee is actually a Pfizer official, but also as Project Veritas' murky past raises concerns about its credibility. At this point in time, this so-called reporting is nothing more than unverified claims from a highly controversial organization.

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UN: Myanmar's Opium Production Surging

Facts

  • According to an annual survey published on Thursday by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), opium farming has sharply increased in Myanmar since the military took control of the country in 2021. This reverses a consistent drop that occurred between 2014 and 2020.
  • In 2022, opium production in the country totaled close to 795 metric tons, a nine-year high that nearly double the cultivation of the previous year at 423 metric tons.
  • The military takeover sparked a deadly civil war that is ongoing. The UNODC report attributes the increase in production to a rise in global prices for the opium resin used in heroin production coupled with the economic downturn and insecurity within the country.
  • In addition to being a global supplier of opium, Myanmar is a leading supplier of methamphetamine. To increase its supply, Myanmar increased the hectares for poppy cultivation from below 30K hectares in 2020 to 40.1K hectares in 2022, a 33% increase. In 2013, the country peaked at over 57.8K hectares dedicated to poppy growth.
  • A majority of the opium produced in the area dubbed the "Golden Triangle," an area where Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos meet, is trafficked into China and Vietnam before traveling to other countries in the region. Using the survey, the UNODC estimated that Myanmar's opium economy has an overall value between $660M and $2B.
  • The increased profit from opium production does not equate to greater buying power for farmers due to the costs of fuel and fertilizer, both of which have soared due to the Ukraine war.

Spin

Narrative A

Myanmar carried out at least 37 special operations to combat drugs last year, seizing tons of narcotic and opioid drugs as well as chemical precursors, and anti-drug operations will be accelerated this year in accordance with new policies. Fighting drugs, however, is a monumental task and there is still a lot to do despite the cooperation of the armed forces.

Narrative B

Myanmar's military coup in 2021 has created the ideal conditions for illicit drug production to escalate, as the formal economy has collapsed and the country is embroiled in unrest and violence. The military's regime lacks law enforcement capacity to tackle drugs, and rebel groups and pro-military militias have intensified drug operations to finance the conflict.

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Australia: Thousands Attend 'Invasion Day' Protests

Facts

  • Thousands of Australians on Thursday protested the nation's Australia Day holiday, which commemorates the first British fleet to land in the nation on Jan. 26, 1788. Opponents of the holiday call it "Invasion Day" due to the impact colonialism had on Indigenous peoples.
  • Protesters gathered in the business district of Sydney — the capital of Australia's most populous state of New South Wales — with some people waving Aboriginal flags and others partaking in an Indigenous smoking ceremony.
  • The protesters, whose demands included abolishing the holiday, were warned that they could be fined or jailed for violating limits on large crowds. However, many of them wore masks and adhered to social distancing rules, and only a few arrests were made.
  • The protesters focused on the history of oppression of the Aboriginal people, whose current population of roughly 880K dates their continental roots back at least 65K years. One historian estimates that 10K have been killed in 400 separate massacres since British colonization first began.
  • The protests, which were met with pro-Australia Day counter-protesters — come as the nation is set to vote on a referendum adding Indigenous representation in Parliament. However, speakers, including Greens party Sen. Lidia Thorpe, called for a treaty with Indigenous peoples instead.
  • The referendum, a pledge the Labor Party took during the general election last May before winning the majority, would alter the constitution — a feat that has only been achieved eight times since 1901. It would require a majority of votes in a majority of states.

Spin

Left narrative

The Aboriginal people have voiced their opposition to Australia Day for decades, but the majority has ignored them. Today, however, a new generation of Australians is joining forces with Indigenous communities in the fight to expose the country's history of racism and genocide and abolish the holiday that celebrates such a horrific past. This is no longer a controversial demand, and the government should take note of that.

Right narrative

While no one would deny the past discrimination faced by Aboriginal peoples, Australia Day is not a celebration of historic brutality. Before it even became a federation in 1901, the Irish, English, Welsh, and Scottish settlers worked alongside the Indigenous peoples to build the remarkable modern state we see today. Australia Day is a celebration of Australia and the entirety of its people. The small faction who oppose it seems to have forgotten that.

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Lawsuits Challenge State Bans on Abortion Pills

Facts

  • Two lawsuits challenging state restrictions on abortion medication were filed on Wednesday, the first suits of this kind since SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the federal constitutional right to the procedure.
  • Both lawsuits argue that state limits on drugs usurp the federal authority of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which has deemed the abortion pill, mifepristone, as safe and effective.
  • GenBioPro, a West Virginia mifepristone manufacturer, argues that state restrictions shouldn’t be allowed to contradict the FDA, which approved the drug in 2000 and recently allowed patients to acquire it through the mail and at certified pharmacies.
  • In North Carolina, Dr. Amy Bryant argues that state laws can’t interfere with FDA regulations and that abortion pill restrictions are "not supported by medicine or science."
  • Demand for mifepristone has soared since SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade last June, with at least 14 states having restricted nearly all abortions, including abortions via medication.
  • This comes as the conservative group Alliance Defending Freedom is in the midst of challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone. That case could be decided as early as next month, with pro-abortion activists speculating about the possibility of a nationwide ban if the judge grants a temporary injunction on approval.

Spin

Republican narrative

Biden’s pro-abortion agenda is seeking to destroy the states' rights created by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. When the president signed an order to "protect access to medication abortion" immediately after the ruling in June, he opened up states, which now have the constitutional right to regulate abortions, to lawsuits of this type. The courts must follow SCOTUS' lead and protect the sovereignty of the states.

Democratic narrative

Federal law has overarching authority over state laws, and state regulations cannot constitutionally contradict or interfere with that authority. The states have to be held to this standard; otherwise, a slippery slope could form, leading to state restrictions on other approved drugs, such as COVID vaccines and the morning-after pill.

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Report: US Economy Grew by 2.9% in Q4

Facts

  • According to the latest US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures released on Thursday, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, higher than growth forecasts predicted.
  • This follows a 3.2% growth in Q3, with initial market reactions causing the US dollar to strengthen against rival currencies. The BEA said the increase in real GDP reflected increased government and consumer spending, increased private investments, and decreased imports.
  • For the entire year of 2022, US GDP expanded by 2.1% after growing by 5.9% the year prior. Economists at Bank of America expect growth to slow to a 1.5% annual rate from January to March before receding in the following three quarters.
  • Consumer spending, which comprises roughly two-thirds of domestic activity, rose 2.1% in Q4, down 0.2% from the previous quarter, while residential investment decreased by 26.7% as home sales dropped against rising mortgage rates.
  • Another report also released Thursday showed that weekly jobless claims fell by 6k to 186k, the lowest since April 2022 and below the Dow Jones estimate of 205k.
  • Despite the seemingly strong data, some economists predicted the recent surge in interest rates — with the Federal Reserve having increased its benchmark rate by 4.25 percentage points since March — will see a mild recession in the first half of 2023.

Spin

Narrative A

While the economy is expected to be headed for a slowdown this year, it's clear that economic growth in 2022 showed a marked improvement from the first half of the year. Despite the headwinds of inflation and increased interest rates, as well as being a difficult year for the housing sector, the economy continues to defy recession fears.

Narrative B

Despite the strength of the labor market, the hiked interest rates — which will be felt in full force this year — means that the US likely won't be able to avoid a recession. Just because GDP didn't decline in Q4 doesn't mean that the economy is back on track by any means.

Nerd narrative

There's a 66% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Palestinian Authority Suspends Security Coordination With Israel

Facts

  • The Palestinian Authority (PA) announced on Thursday that it would stop working with Israeli security forces to fight militants in the West Bank, a move it has made in previous crises with Israel but has been short-lived in the past.
  • Fully implementing this move would limit communication and intelligence sharing as well as reduce Ramallah's policing of armed groups in the area, risking a serious escalation of tensions between both sides.
  • This comes after Israeli forces killed nine Palestinians and wounded several others during a raid in the Jenin refugee camp on Thursday, reportedly carried out against an alleged Islamic Jihad "terror squad."
  • Palestinian media identified a member of the militant Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades –the 22-year-old Izz al-Din Salahat– among the dead, while Israel reportedly launched a probe into the death of the 61-year-old uninvolved civilian Magda Obaid.
  • This large-scale daytime raid is the deadliest single operation in the West Bank in two decades. Later in the day, a 22-year-old Palestinian was also shot dead in the north of Jerusalem while confronting Israeli troops.
  • So far this month, at least 29 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces during raids in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as Israel has ramped up raids since last year following a series of Palestinian attacks in Israel.

Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israeli occupation forces carried out a planned massacre against the Palestinian people this Thursday, cutting off electricity and barring medical workers from evacuating the wounded from the refugee camp. Emboldened by international silence after killing more Palestinians last year than in any other calendar year since the Second Intifada, the occupation is becoming even more violent.

Pro-Israel narrative

The massive three-hour-long battle that erupted was a result of Palestinians attacking Israeli forces that were simply trying to capture three terrorists and foil planned terror attacks against Israeli civilians within the Green Line. Sadly, an innocent person was accidentally killed during this extended firefight, but the death toll is actually low given the amount of fire exchanged.

Nerd narrative

There's a 44% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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FBI Hacks Criminal Ransomware Gang

Facts

  • The FBI has seized the computer infrastructure used by a prominent ransomware group, which has extorted over $100M from hospitals, schools, and other victims across the globe, US officials announced Thursday.
  • Hive ransomware is one of the most notorious hacker gangs in the world, and the US government issued a November advisory about the group’s cyberattacks. Ransomware hackers received heightened focus after a cyberattack forced a major US pipeline operator offline in 2021.
  • US Attorney General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and Deputy US Attorney General Lisa Monaco held a news conference revealing that government hackers broke into Hive’s network. The US government also reportedly put the gang under surveillance.
  • Monaco asserted, “Using lawful means, we hacked the hackers," which allowed the FBI to prevent Hive from collecting more than $130M in ransomware demands from over 300 victims.
  • The FBI revealed it gained access to Hive’s computer networks in July 2022 and acquired decryption keys to over 1300 victims. Ransomware groups are often decentralized with members around the world; Hive’s core group spoke Russian leading to speculation about a Kremlin tie.
  • Despite the victory against Hive, cybersecurity experts worry another ransomware group will take its place. John Hultquist of the cybersecurity firm Mandiant said the Hive disruption won’t cause a “serious drop” in ransomware activity, but it at least delivered a blow to a “dangerous group.”

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US government has made great progress in the arena of cybersecurity and is taking the necessary steps to address the growing threat of ransomware attacks. The intelligence community has rightly prioritized shutting down nefarious hacker groups — its efforts are clearly paying off.

Establishment-critical narrative

The federal government has not taken cybersecurity seriously enough, and even government-created watchdog groups recognize the lack of urgency. Federal agencies need to be held accountable for their slow pace. Antiquated systems simply lag behind sophisticated hackers waiting to wreak havoc.

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