27 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

Myanmar: Junta Announces Strict Election Law Ahead of Polls

Facts

  • Myanmar's military junta published on Friday a tough new law on political parties that replaces a 2010 legislation and bars parties and candidates deemed unlawful or allegedly linked to those committing terrorist acts.
  • This comes as the country's leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing announced that elections will be held in August this year in accordance with constitutional provisions after the end of the military-imposed two-year emergency period.
  • The 20-page new election law requires political parties to have at least 100K members within three months from the date of getting approval. It also requires a deposit of $43K at a state-owned bank, to open offices in at least half of the country's 330 townships within six months after registering, and to compete in at least half of all constituencies and by-elections.
  • Any existing political party will have to apply for registration within two months of the announcement to prevent being "automatically invalidated," and also being subject to suspension for three years and dissolution for failing to comply with the law.
  • Under the new law, only two of the 91 registered political parties reportedly have the capacity and resources to run at the national level: the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the National League for Democracy (NLD), which was ousted from office in 2021 and has since refused to work with the junta-appointed Union Election Commission.
  • The NLD-led shadow National Unity Government (NUG) has urged people to boycott what they claimed will be a bogus election, an allegation also made by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in November.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This legislation was brought forward to favor the military's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party in the upcoming nationwide rigged election. It will likely be the last nail in the coffin of Myanmar's political parties, effectively dissolving the National League for Democracy and other existing ones.

Establishment-critical narrative

This new law is necessary as it prevents political parties violating the constitution from being able to register. It also propels them to join forces to increase their representativeness as Myanmar prepares to hold a free and fair election this year.

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Israel Bombs Gaza Following Palestinian Rocket Attacks

Facts

  • Israel launched airstrikes against Gaza early Friday morning in response to rockets fired from the territory earlier that night as tensions continue to mount following one of the deadliest raids in the West Bank in years.
  • At least six rockets were fired overnight from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip towards southern Israel, four of which were intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome defense system, with the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad claiming responsibility for the attack during a rally in Gaza City.
  • Later, Gazan militants fired a second set of rocket attacks that Israel responded to by targeting "one of the most significant" Hamas military bases in the northern Gaza Strip. No casualties on either side were reported.
  • The overnight exchange comes after nine Palestinians, reportedly two of which were civilians, were killed on Thursday as Israeli forces raided the West Bank city of Jenin. A 10th Palestinian was shot dead later that day as he confronted Israeli troops near Jerusalem while protesting against the raid.
  • In a sign of further escalation, at least seven people were reportedly killed and three wounded by a Palestinian gunman on Friday evening in an attack at a synagogue on the outskirts of Jerusalem. While nobody has yet claimed responsibility, Hamas said the attack was related to the Jenin raid.
  • Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to arrive in Israel on Monday to meet with Israeli and Palestinian leaders to reiterate Washington's support of a two-state solution.

Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

These airstrikes show that Israel's defense establishment is prepared to take any action needed to ensure peace for its citizens. Though such a response to Thursday's Jenin raid was already anticipated, connecting events between Gaza and the West Bank is a dangerous precedent that threatens the very existence of the State of Israel.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israeli occupation forces carried out a planned massacre against the Palestinian people this Thursday, cutting off electricity and barring medical workers from evacuating the wounded from the refugee camp, and now have attacked Gaza. Emboldened by international silence after killing more Palestinians last year than in any other calendar year since the Second Intifada, it is Israel that's becoming even more violent.

Nerd narrative

There's a 44% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: Japan, Netherlands Joining US Chip Restrictions on China

Facts

  • Japan and the Netherlands will join the US in restricting exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, according to sources familiar with the matter.
  • With talks between the three countries expected to end Friday, the Dutch company ASML Holding will reportedly be banned from selling machines that make advanced chips, and Japan will impose similar restrictions on Nikon.
  • Seiji Kihara, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, said his country would take "appropriate steps" based on US and other nations' moves. In October, Pres. Joe Biden announced major restrictions on Chinese access to US chip technology.
  • In addition to the impact on Nikon, chip machinery manufacturer Tokyo Electron, which relies on China for about 25% of its sales, is predicted to be most affected. But the country reportedly expects affected companies to rebound because its manufacturing industry is expanding.
  • Some in the Netherlands also fear the move could hinder their companies' growing financial success. Meanwhile, Dutch PM Mark Rutte said any restrictions would be for national security reasons rather than to help protect US interests.
  • According to anonymous sources, a deal between the Netherlands and the US could be finalized by the end of the month.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

As China's military and technological prowess grow exponentially, Western allies need agreements like this to protect against Chinese military-grade computer chip manufacturing. Though cutting companies off from China will take incredible domestic investment, it will be worth it when the US and its allies are safe from the prying eyes of the CCP.

Establishment-critical narrative

Although Biden sees this as a victory, even ASML executives are warning this move could isolate western companies from the global market while China’s learning to manufacture semiconductors itself. This deal won’t do much to improve national security once the CCP figures out how to build military-grade computer chips on its own.

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Day 338: Canada, Poland to Arm Ukraine with Leopard Tanks

Facts

  • On Friday, it was announced that Poland is sending 60 modernized battle tanks and 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
  • Canada also confirmed it would supply four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after Germany allowed its allies to send the mighty battle tanks from their stock.
  • Meanwhile, Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev accused the West of being directly involved in Russia's war and warned Berlin's decision to send tanks to Kyiv was "highly dangerous," which could "take the conflict to a new level of confrontation."
  • Elsewhere, Ukrainian authorities claimed Russia's missiles and drone strikes on nearly a dozen Ukrainian provinces on Thursday damaged 35 buildings and killed at least 11 people. The attacks, which involved a total of 55 missiles, left an additional 11 residents severely injured.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency said powerful explosions were also reported near the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in south Ukraine. However, Russia rejected the claim describing it as a "provocation."
  • Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly killed 850 Russian soldiers and destroyed seven enemy tanks, 11 artillery systems, 33 operational-tactical UAVs, and 47 cruise missiles in the last 24 hours.

Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

It is no secret that Ukraine's war effort would have collapsed long back without the West's support. Now that the month-long Western intervention threatens to escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict into an all-out direct war between NATO and Russia, the West is arming Ukraine to provide political cover for politicians who fear the blame game when they lose the proxy war in Ukraine.

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia's continuous offensive has forced Kyiv to seek as many weapons as the West can send to reclaim every inch of its territory from the invaders. As the next battle phase threatens to witness full-scale tank-and-trench warfare, sending arms to Ukraine is a critical step toward helping the country regain lost ground. Hopefully, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will push Russia to accept a negotiated settlement.

Cynical narrative

More weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical Ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Judge Blocks Calif. COVID 'Misinformation' Law

Facts

  • A US judge on Wednesday blocked the implementation of a California law aimed at punishing doctors who give patients “misinformation or disinformation" related to COVID. He's considering a pair of lawsuits challenging the law on free speech grounds.
  • The law, known as Assembly Bill 2098, defines false information as anything "contradicted by contemporary scientific consensus" — including information about the risks of the virus, prevention, treatment methods, and vaccines.
  • Senior US District Judge William Shubb of Sacramento ruled that the bill, which was signed last October by Gov. Gavin Newsom, was too vague for doctors to know what kind of statements might put them at risk of being punished for misinformation.
  • Five California physicians filed a lawsuit against Newsom’s administration in November, saying that the law violates their First Amendment rights as well as their constitutional right to due process.
  • The American Civil Liberties Union filed briefs supporting the plaintiffs, saying that while the state does have the power to punish doctors for spreading harmful misinformation, AB 2098 was a "blunt instrument" that went too far.

Spin

Right narrative

This law is unconstitutional and the judge is right to block it. It violates Americans' right to freedom of speech and expression, and given there's no legal definition of "contemporary scientific consensus," it's unclear what exactly physicians can be penalized for. Doctors who give harmful advice to patients are already subject to malpractice lawsuits and discipline under existing state law; all Assembly Bill 2098 does is stifle important scientific debate around COVID.

Left narrative

Spreading COVID vaccine and treatment misinformation is medical malpractice and should be punished accordingly. Laws should exist to hold physicians accountable and make sure they don't spread COVID misinformation. Disinformation is a public health threat that existed long before this pandemic and will likely last long after. Unless these physicians are held accountable, the trust of the entire medical profession is in jeopardy.

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Chevron Records Annual Profit of $35.5B

Facts

  • On Friday, Chevron Corp. revealed that it pocketed its highest-ever annual profit in 2022, with its quarterly earnings report detailing profits of $35.5B. The company's shares rose 53% while other sectors fell.
  • News that Chevron has exceeded its previous record net profit, set in 2011, by around $10B kicked off the publication of global earnings across the energy sector. According to analysts, the spike in fuel prices over the past twelve months — prompted by the rising demand for energy amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine — has primed Western energy companies to a combined profit of $200B last year.
  • Amid news of record profits, Chevron is expected to face controversy over a new $75B share-repurchase plan that is to take place over the coming years. The White House expressed opposition to the program.
  • Chevron — the second largest oil producer in the US — recorded profits of $7.9B for its fourth quarter, which was 61% higher than the previous year but fell short of the $11.4B collected in its second quarter.
  • According to Chevron's finance chief Pierre Breber, following provisions for shareholder dividends, the company will prioritize funding production and debt repayment.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Chevron has published record profits, yet is continuing to exacerbate the cost of living struggles for US consumers to reward shareholders. The company is swimming in cash and has a responsibility to its customers to make petroleum consumption — a basic necessity in the US — more affordable.

Pro-establishment narrative

The investment Chevron executives are making in the company is not just about lining their own pockets — it's about future-proofing. Chevron's capital spending is still well below pre-COVID levels and, although oil prices have fallen from the highs of last summer, the reopening of China's economy will keep demand for crude oil high and maintain the pressure of global supplies.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the real price of gas will be at least $3.59 per gallon in the US in April 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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CVS, Walmart Cutting Pharmacy Hours

Facts

  • Walmart and CVS have announced they will be reducing pharmacy hours at their stores starting in March, in part because of a nationwide pharmacy staff shortage in the US.
  • CVS will cut or shift hours at approximately two-thirds of its 9k stores. Walmart will be closing its pharmacies at 7 pm on weekdays, which is two hours earlier than their current closing time of 9 pm.
  • In a statement, Walmart said it was making its cuts "to not only enhance" the work-life balance of its pharmacists, "but also to maintain the best level of service for our customers."
  • Meanwhile, a spokesperson for CVS said these cutbacks were part of “the normal course of business,” which often includes assessing whether store operating hours are aligned with high-demand times.
  • The shortage of pharmacy staff has persisted even as demand for COVID vaccines and tests has slowed. Companies have been offering pay raises, bonuses, and other perks in an attempt to bolster their workforces.

Spin

Narrative A

The US has been experiencing a labor shortage in all fields since the start of the COVID pandemic — particularly in the healthcare industry — and there’s no telling what it will take to get people back to work. Raising the minimum wage at these retail drug stores hasn’t worked, nor have other perks and bonuses, forcing businesses to make tough compromises, as seen by Walmart and CVS.

Narrative B

While the pandemic undoubtedly took a toll on the labor market, particularly in the healthcare industry, it also positively altered the structure of retail pharmacies, which have remained in high demand despite staffing shortages and new competition. Many drug stores were able to pivot to digital services, allowing their market scope to expand exponentially. As business processes evolve, it's no surprise that operations follow suit.

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US Military Kills Senior IS Official in Somalia

Facts

  • The Biden admin. announced on Thursday that US Special Forces killed Bilal al-Sudani, a key financial facilitator for the Islamic State (IS), and 10 other IS operatives in a mountainous cave complex in northern Somalia.
  • Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin said via a statement that al-Sudani was “responsible for fostering the growing presence of ISIS in Africa and funding the group’s operations worldwide, including in Afghanistan.”
  • US officials reported that there were no civilian casualties, while no details regarding the 10 other IS operatives were given. One US soldier was reportedly wounded after he was bitten by an American military canine.
  • US intelligence reportedly discovered al-Sudani’s hidden headquarters months ago in a remote cave complex in the Puntland region of northern Somalia and began monitoring the location to study his movements.
  • The operation's planning reached a "critical stage" last week when Biden was briefed on the plan, along with Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Deputy CIA Director David Cohen, and Attorney General Merrick Garland, among others. Biden then approved the plan earlier this week.
  • According to a US official, the US treasury sanctioned al-Sudani in 2012 for allegedly helping foreign fighters travel to a training camp run by al-Shabaab — which has waged a deadly war against the Somali government — and facilitating financing for IS networks.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The fact that Mogadishu has turned to the US, of all countries, for assistance in combatting extremists is just another example of America's desire for regional dominance. It's certainly no coincidence that Washington decided in May to redeploy troops to Somalia under the guise of "fighting terrorism." In reality, Washington is primarily concerned with containing the growing influence of China, but also Russia, in this strategically important region.

Pro-establishment narrative

After former Pres. Trump decided to withdraw US troops from Somalia, there was an uptick in terrorist violence. The fact that the Somali federal government is now making progress against terrorists is due to the return of US troops to the country and America's military cooperation with Mogadishu. Since al-Shabaab and IS also pose a direct threat to the US itself, defeating these terrorists is also a matter of national security.

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International Criminal Court Reopens Philippines Drug War Probe

Facts

  • The International Criminal Court (ICC) on Thursday announced it is reopening its investigation into “crimes against humanity” in the Philippines that allegedly occurred during former Pres. Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs.
  • Prosecutor Karim Khan last year asked ICC judges for permission to reactivate his investigation into thousands of deaths related to the drug war between November 2011 and March 2019. More than 6K drug suspects have been killed according to government sources, but activist groups believe the death toll is much greater.
  • The ICC suspended the investigation in 2021 after Manila said it was conducting its own probe into the situation. But a panel of ICC judges currently concurs with Khan deferring to Philippine authorities was “not warranted.”
  • Duterte assumed office in June 2016 after winning on a platform of fighting crime and immediately launched his “war on drugs.” Human Rights Watch says the ICC investigation is the “only credible avenue” for justice.
  • Current president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said he will continue the war on drugs but with a focus on rehabilitation.
  • Marcos intends to appeal the resumption of the probe, according to Solicitor General Menardo Guevarra. Since the Philippines withdrew from the ICC in 2019, Manila is not obliged to formally respond to the ICC.

Spin

Narrative A

The ICC is 100% correct to reopen its investigation into the brutal drug war. The Duterte and Marcos administrations failed to submit proof they were willing to genuinely investigate the killings. The ICC must take over this probe.

Narrative B

The ICC is overstepping its bounds and undermining the Philippines’ sovereignty. The ICC can only conduct proceedings in states without a functioning government, and the Philippines is not a country where the ICC can rightfully do so. The Philippines’ domestic investigative and judicial processes should take precedence in any probe.

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Study: Blood-Based Test Could Detect Alzheimer's Disease Early

Facts

  • New research from the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience at King's College London — published in the journal Brain — has established a blood-based test that can potentially predict the risk of Alzheimer's disease years before clinical diagnosis.
  • The study found that changes in neurogenesis occurred 3.5 years before a clinical diagnosis, the first evidence in humans that the circulatory system can influence the brain's ability to form new cells, according to the study's authors.
  • Researchers collected blood samples over several years from 56 people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a condition that leads to Alzheimer's disease at a much higher rate than the wider population.
  • Blood tests collected from the 36 people volunteering for this study who went to develop Alzheimer's disease promoted a decrease in cell growth and division and an increase in programmed cell death.
  • This comes weeks after another study published in Brain found that levels of the brain-derived tau protein — specific to Alzheimer's disease — in the blood correlated with levels of tau in the cerebrospinal fluid and with the severity of amyloid plaques and tau tangles in brain tissue from those who had died with this disease.
  • Alzheimer's disease — a brain disorder that gradually destroys memory and thinking skills — reportedly affects over 6M people in the US, most of them aged 65 or older, and is the seventh leading cause of death in the US. Early diagnosis and treatment can help preserve daily functioning for a while and allow families to plan for the future.

Spin

Narrative A

It's thrilling that we are able to witness this revolution in Alzheimer's disease diagnosis, as some one-quarter of clinical diagnoses are wrong, but blood-based biomarkers are not ready for widespread use yet. For them to be used as stand-alone tests in primary care, additional research is needed.

Narrative B

Though still costly and limited, blood tests for Alzheimer's disease are already a reality that can help to diagnose this devastating illness. Equally important, the development of these tests — which go hand-in-hand with finding a treatment — advance research and bring awareness. More data and research is always needed, but the future is bright, and hopefully, tests will soon be widely adopted.

Nerd narrative

There's a 99% chance that there will be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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