Myanmar: Junta Announces Strict Election Law Ahead of Polls
Myanmar's military junta published on Friday a tough new law on political parties that replaces a 2010 legislation and bars parties and candidates deemed unlawful or allegedly linked to those committing terrorist acts.
This comes as the country's leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing announced that elections will be held in August this year in accordance with constitutional provisions after the end of the military-imposed two-year emergency period.
The 20-page new election law requires political parties to have at least 100K members within three months from the date of getting approval. It also requires a deposit of $43K at a state-owned bank, to open offices in at least half of the country's 330 townships within six months after registering, and to compete in at least half of all constituencies and by-elections.
Pro-establishment narrative
This legislation was brought forward to favor the military's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party in the upcoming nationwide rigged election. It will likely be the last nail in the coffin of Myanmar's political parties, effectively dissolving the National League for Democracy and other existing ones.
Establishment-critical narrative
This new law is necessary as it prevents political parties violating the constitution from being able to register. It also propels them to join forces to increase their representativeness as Myanmar prepares to hold a free and fair election this year.
Israel Bombs Gaza Following Palestinian Rocket Attacks
Israel launched airstrikes against Gaza early Friday morning in response to rockets fired from the territory earlier that night as tensions continue to mount following one of the deadliest raids in the West Bank in years.
At least six rockets were fired overnight from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip towards southern Israel, four of which were intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome defense system, with the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad claiming responsibility for the attack during a rally in Gaza City.
Later, Gazan militants fired a second set of rocket attacks that Israel responded to by targeting "one of the most significant" Hamas military bases in the northern Gaza Strip. No casualties on either side were reported.
Pro-Israel narrative
These airstrikes show that Israel's defense establishment is prepared to take any action needed to ensure peace for its citizens. Though such a response to Thursday's Jenin raid was already anticipated, connecting events between Gaza and the West Bank is a dangerous precedent that threatens the very existence of the State of Israel.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israeli occupation forces carried out a planned massacre against the Palestinian people this Thursday, cutting off electricity and barring medical workers from evacuating the wounded from the refugee camp, and now have attacked Gaza. Emboldened by international silence after killing more Palestinians last year than in any other calendar year since the Second Intifada, it is Israel that's becoming even more violent.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Japan, Netherlands Joining US Chip Restrictions on China
Japan and the Netherlands will join the US in restricting exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, according to sources familiar with the matter.
With talks between the three countries expected to end Friday, the Dutch company ASML Holding will reportedly be banned from selling machines that make advanced chips, and Japan will impose similar restrictions on Nikon.
Seiji Kihara, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, said his country would take "appropriate steps" based on US and other nations' moves. In October, Pres. Joe Biden announced major restrictions on Chinese access to US chip technology.
Pro-establishment narrative
As China's military and technological prowess grow exponentially, Western allies need agreements like this to protect against Chinese military-grade computer chip manufacturing. Though cutting companies off from China will take incredible domestic investment, it will be worth it when the US and its allies are safe from the prying eyes of the CCP.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although Biden sees this as a victory, even ASML executives are warning this move could isolate western companies from the global market while China’s learning to manufacture semiconductors itself. This deal won’t do much to improve national security once the CCP figures out how to build military-grade computer chips on its own.
Day 338: Canada, Poland to Arm Ukraine with Leopard Tanks
On Friday, it was announced that Poland is sending 60 modernized battle tanks and 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Canada also confirmed it would supply four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after Germany allowed its allies to send the mighty battle tanks from their stock.
Meanwhile, Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev accused the West of being directly involved in Russia's war and warned Berlin's decision to send tanks to Kyiv was "highly dangerous," which could "take the conflict to a new level of confrontation."
Pro-Russia narrative
It is no secret that Ukraine's war effort would have collapsed long back without the West's support. Now that the month-long Western intervention threatens to escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict into an all-out direct war between NATO and Russia, the West is arming Ukraine to provide political cover for politicians who fear the blame game when they lose the proxy war in Ukraine.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia's continuous offensive has forced Kyiv to seek as many weapons as the West can send to reclaim every inch of its territory from the invaders. As the next battle phase threatens to witness full-scale tank-and-trench warfare, sending arms to Ukraine is a critical step toward helping the country regain lost ground. Hopefully, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will push Russia to accept a negotiated settlement.
Cynical narrative
More weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical Ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Blocks Calif. COVID 'Misinformation' Law
A US judge on Wednesday blocked the implementation of a California law aimed at punishing doctors who give patients “misinformation or disinformation" related to COVID. He's considering a pair of lawsuits challenging the law on free speech grounds.
The law, known as Assembly Bill 2098, defines false information as anything "contradicted by contemporary scientific consensus" — including information about the risks of the virus, prevention, treatment methods, and vaccines.
Senior US District Judge William Shubb of Sacramento ruled that the bill, which was signed last October by Gov. Gavin Newsom, was too vague for doctors to know what kind of statements might put them at risk of being punished for misinformation.
Right narrative
This law is unconstitutional and the judge is right to block it. It violates Americans' right to freedom of speech and expression, and given there's no legal definition of "contemporary scientific consensus," it's unclear what exactly physicians can be penalized for. Doctors who give harmful advice to patients are already subject to malpractice lawsuits and discipline under existing state law; all Assembly Bill 2098 does is stifle important scientific debate around COVID.
Left narrative
Spreading COVID vaccine and treatment misinformation is medical malpractice and should be punished accordingly. Laws should exist to hold physicians accountable and make sure they don't spread COVID misinformation. Disinformation is a public health threat that existed long before this pandemic and will likely last long after. Unless these physicians are held accountable, the trust of the entire medical profession is in jeopardy.
Chevron Records Annual Profit of $35.5B
On Friday, Chevron Corp. revealed that it pocketed its highest-ever annual profit in 2022, with its quarterly earnings report detailing profits of $35.5B. The company's shares rose 53% while other sectors fell.
News that Chevron has exceeded its previous record net profit, set in 2011, by around $10B kicked off the publication of global earnings across the energy sector. According to analysts, the spike in fuel prices over the past twelve months — prompted by the rising demand for energy amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine — has primed Western energy companies to a combined profit of $200B last year.
Amid news of record profits, Chevron is expected to face controversy over a new $75B share-repurchase plan that is to take place over the coming years. The White House expressed opposition to the program.
Establishment-critical narrative
Chevron has published record profits, yet is continuing to exacerbate the cost of living struggles for US consumers to reward shareholders. The company is swimming in cash and has a responsibility to its customers to make petroleum consumption — a basic necessity in the US — more affordable.
Pro-establishment narrative
The investment Chevron executives are making in the company is not just about lining their own pockets — it's about future-proofing. Chevron's capital spending is still well below pre-COVID levels and, although oil prices have fallen from the highs of last summer, the reopening of China's economy will keep demand for crude oil high and maintain the pressure of global supplies.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the real price of gas will be at least $3.59 per gallon in the US in April 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
CVS, Walmart Cutting Pharmacy Hours
Walmart and CVS have announced they will be reducing pharmacy hours at their stores starting in March, in part because of a nationwide pharmacy staff shortage in the US.
CVS will cut or shift hours at approximately two-thirds of its 9k stores. Walmart will be closing its pharmacies at 7 pm on weekdays, which is two hours earlier than their current closing time of 9 pm.
In a statement, Walmart said it was making its cuts "to not only enhance" the work-life balance of its pharmacists, "but also to maintain the best level of service for our customers."
Narrative A
The US has been experiencing a labor shortage in all fields since the start of the COVID pandemic — particularly in the healthcare industry — and there’s no telling what it will take to get people back to work. Raising the minimum wage at these retail drug stores hasn’t worked, nor have other perks and bonuses, forcing businesses to make tough compromises, as seen by Walmart and CVS.
Narrative B
While the pandemic undoubtedly took a toll on the labor market, particularly in the healthcare industry, it also positively altered the structure of retail pharmacies, which have remained in high demand despite staffing shortages and new competition. Many drug stores were able to pivot to digital services, allowing their market scope to expand exponentially. As business processes evolve, it's no surprise that operations follow suit.
US Military Kills Senior IS Official in Somalia
The Biden admin. announced on Thursday that US Special Forces killed Bilal al-Sudani, a key financial facilitator for the Islamic State (IS), and 10 other IS operatives in a mountainous cave complex in northern Somalia.
Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin said via a statement that al-Sudani was “responsible for fostering the growing presence of ISIS in Africa and funding the group’s operations worldwide, including in Afghanistan.”
US officials reported that there were no civilian casualties, while no details regarding the 10 other IS operatives were given. One US soldier was reportedly wounded after he was bitten by an American military canine.
Establishment-critical narrative
The fact that Mogadishu has turned to the US, of all countries, for assistance in combatting extremists is just another example of America's desire for regional dominance. It's certainly no coincidence that Washington decided in May to redeploy troops to Somalia under the guise of "fighting terrorism." In reality, Washington is primarily concerned with containing the growing influence of China, but also Russia, in this strategically important region.
Pro-establishment narrative
After former Pres. Trump decided to withdraw US troops from Somalia, there was an uptick in terrorist violence. The fact that the Somali federal government is now making progress against terrorists is due to the return of US troops to the country and America's military cooperation with Mogadishu. Since al-Shabaab and IS also pose a direct threat to the US itself, defeating these terrorists is also a matter of national security.
International Criminal Court Reopens Philippines Drug War Probe
The International Criminal Court (ICC) on Thursday announced it is reopening its investigation into “crimes against humanity” in the Philippines that allegedly occurred during former Pres. Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs.
Prosecutor Karim Khan last year asked ICC judges for permission to reactivate his investigation into thousands of deaths related to the drug war between November 2011 and March 2019. More than 6K drug suspects have been killed according to government sources, but activist groups believe the death toll is much greater.
The ICC suspended the investigation in 2021 after Manila said it was conducting its own probe into the situation. But a panel of ICC judges currently concurs with Khan deferring to Philippine authorities was “not warranted.”
Narrative A
The ICC is 100% correct to reopen its investigation into the brutal drug war. The Duterte and Marcos administrations failed to submit proof they were willing to genuinely investigate the killings. The ICC must take over this probe.
Narrative B
The ICC is overstepping its bounds and undermining the Philippines’ sovereignty. The ICC can only conduct proceedings in states without a functioning government, and the Philippines is not a country where the ICC can rightfully do so. The Philippines’ domestic investigative and judicial processes should take precedence in any probe.
Study: Blood-Based Test Could Detect Alzheimer's Disease Early
New research from the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience at King's College London — published in the journal Brain — has established a blood-based test that can potentially predict the risk of Alzheimer's disease years before clinical diagnosis.
The study found that changes in neurogenesis occurred 3.5 years before a clinical diagnosis, the first evidence in humans that the circulatory system can influence the brain's ability to form new cells, according to the study's authors.
Researchers collected blood samples over several years from 56 people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a condition that leads to Alzheimer's disease at a much higher rate than the wider population.
Narrative A
It's thrilling that we are able to witness this revolution in Alzheimer's disease diagnosis, as some one-quarter of clinical diagnoses are wrong, but blood-based biomarkers are not ready for widespread use yet. For them to be used as stand-alone tests in primary care, additional research is needed.
Narrative B
Though still costly and limited, blood tests for Alzheimer's disease are already a reality that can help to diagnose this devastating illness. Equally important, the development of these tests — which go hand-in-hand with finding a treatment — advance research and bring awareness. More data and research is always needed, but the future is bright, and hopefully, tests will soon be widely adopted.
Nerd narrative
There's a 99% chance that there will be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.