Rhino Poaching Surges in Namibia
The number of endangered rhinos poached in Namibia reached an all-time high in 2022 with 87 animals being killed compared to 45 in 2021 — a 93% increase. Most were poached in Namibia's largest park.
Over the decades, Africa's rhino population has been decimated to meet the demand for their horns in East Asia, which are prized as a supposed medicine and as jewelry despite being made of the same material as rhino hair and fingernails.
In a statement released Monday, Ministry of Environment, Forestry, and Tourism spokesman Romeo Muyunda reported that poachers had killed 61 black rhinos and 26 white rhinos primarily in Namibia's largest park, Etosha. 46 rhinos were found dead in the park.
Narrative A
Poaching is a savage and brutal practice. Some believe that shooting poachers on sight will reduce the problem, but that approach fails to address the root of the issue — namely, that countries demanding rhino horns enable its purchase by driving up demand for the product. The horns sell for $60K per kilogram on the black market, which is more than gold or cocaine. If we want to save the rhinos, we need to come up with a new plan because this one isn't working.
Narrative B
Botswana reported a dramatic drop in rhinoceros poaching in 2022 after taking further steps to protect its shrinking rhino population. After losing 126 animals between 2018 and 2021, only six rhinos were killed in Botswana in 2022. This is due to a robust national anti-poaching structure that deploys the army to poach hotspots, dehorning the rhinos, and moving the animals away from vulnerable areas. However, another reason could be that the poaching syndicates literally have cleaned it out and taken their business to neighboring countries.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 24.6% of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife by January 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
IMF Lifts Global Growth Forecasts
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on Monday, revising its previous global growth projections upward by 0.2%.
According to the report, global output is forecast to slow to 2.9% in 2023, down from 3.4% last year, as central banks continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, but a global recession would likely be avoided due to resilient customers and the reopening of China's economy.
Britain is the only member of the G7 group of leading developed nations expected to see a recession this year, with the IMF now calculating a 0.6 percentage point contraction.
Narrative A
This year will certainly be challenging, but it may well represent the turning point of the global economy. Though uncertainty still looms, confidence that a global recession can be avoided has improved as the world's three main economic engines – China, Europe, and the US – have outperformed expectations and averted some predicted problems so far.
Narrative B
Indeed, there's reason to be cheerful about the world economy as inflation has eased in the US, energy prices have plunged in Europe, and China has gotten rid of its destructive "zero-COVID" policy. It's too early, however, to dismiss the risk of a global recession as overheated labor markets and the energy crisis still endure.
Nerd narrative
There's a 66% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 342: Biden Says US Won't Provide F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine
US Pres. Biden has — for the time being — ruled out providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Asked by reporters at the White House on Monday if the US would provide the aircraft, Biden said, "No."
This comes as Ukraine's defense minister Oleksii Reznikov traveled to Paris to meet with French Pres. Macron and to raise the prospect of warplanes on Tuesday. Earlier, Macron didn't rule out providing warplanes as long as certain conditions were met — including that it did not lead to an escalation, that they would not be used "to touch Russian soil," and that it would not "weaken the capacities of the French army."
Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki also signaled that his country may be willing to provide fighter jets. However, he stressed such a move would only be made in consultation with NATO allies. "We coordinate all actions aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defense forces with our NATO partners," he said.
Pro-establishment narrative
Now that Ukraine has fulfilled its desire for tanks, it is rightly asking for modern fighter jets to replace its long-outdated Soviet-era fighters. While the aircraft will not be a magic bullet, Western partners will continue to discuss Ukraine's needs in order to help them defeat Russia. Whether fighter jets are provided in the coming months is an open question.
Pro-Russia narrative
Irrespective of what weapons Ukraine receives, Russia's special military operation will continue till it meets its intended objectives. Western weapons simply drag out the conflict while increasing the prospect of an escalation into all-out war.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Canada: B.C. Experiments with Decriminalizing Hard Drugs
On Tuesday, the Canadian province of British Columbia (B.C.) began a three-year decriminalization experiment, allowing anyone over the age of 18 to carry up to 2.5 grams of illegal drugs.
The province was granted an exemption under the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act in May. Individuals possessing less than the limited amount of illegal substances, including opioids, cocaine, methamphetamine, and MDMA, for personal use will not be arrested, charged, or have their drugs seized.
Those who are caught selling or trafficking drugs in B.C., however, will still face criminal penalties.
Progressive narrative
This experiment will make strides toward treating addiction as the health issue it is rather than solely as a criminal situation. Although there is a ways to go – such as creating a regulated and safe supply – this is a step in the right direction to reducing the stigma associated with drug use, and it could help save lives in the province.
Conservative narrative
As Canada's nanny state — which usually employs stigmatization as a tool to regulate the middle class — continues its anti-stigma drug paradox, the very people the government claims to be helping are the ones who will suffer. The policy normalizes drug addicts as nothing more than a population with an incurable health condition to be pitied rather than fixed, denying them agency over their lives and thus making rehabilitation inaccessible.
Trump Sues Bob Woodward Over Audio Recordings
Former US Pres. Trump on Monday sued veteran investigative journalist Bob Woodward, who in October released audio recordings of interviews conducted with Trump during his last two years in office.
Although Trump consented to the interviews that were the basis of Woodward's 2020 book "Rage,” the lawsuit alleges Trump didn’t grant permission for releasing the interviews. The recordings were released alongside the audiobook "The Trump Tapes: Bob Woodward’s Twenty Interviews with President Donald Trump."
In the lawsuit, Trump claims he told Woodward the interviews were for his personal use for the sole purpose of accurately quoting the then-president. One of the most high-profile audio clips concerns Trump confiding to Woodward the threat of the COVID pandemic while asserting an intention to downplay dangers in public messaging.
Democratic narrative
Trump, who has a history of filing frivolous lawsuits that go nowhere, is at it again. He expects anyone to believe that after sitting for dozens of interviews with Woodward, throughout two book projects, he didn’t authorize the release of the recordings? Like his suit against Hillary Clinton and media companies, this Woodward case is going to be dead on arrival.
Pro-Trump narrative
As Woodward surely knows, consent to record interviews for a book project is different than permission to release those recordings, especially if they’re going to be edited to misrepresent what the subject has said. Woodward saw an opportunity to maximize revenue from his access, and at the very least Trump should share in that compensation.
Cynical narrative
From former Trump aids Mark Esper to Deborah Birx to Mark Meadows, many others have written "tell all" books about the former president in an attempt to cash in. Not surprisingly, the sales of these have largely flopped. If the warnings in this canon of Trump revelations were so severe, why didn't the authors come forward earlier in the public interest? Americans see through the banal and hollow intent of authors trying to capitalize on the lucrative book market.
France Criticized Over Security Plan At Paris Olympics
Rights groups are claiming the French government is trying to extend police surveillance powers ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games, calling for more public debate on a special bill — approved by the Senate on Tuesday — that would allow AI-assisted video surveillance. The lower house of parliament is set to consider it next month.
The initial text was already amended after the National Commission for Information Technology and Freedoms (CNIL) and the Council of State raised concerns over the possibility of mass processing of personal data.
Security plans involve large-scale, real-time cameras supported by an algorithm to spot suspicious behavior, including unaccompanied luggage and potential stampedes, as France seeks to prevent the chaos seen at last year's UEFA Champions League final.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Olympic Games are being used as an excuse for the French government to approve the mass surveillance measures it has long sought to impose. The legislation, which is allegedly intended to be temporary, even hints at making this long-term by mentioning gatherings other than sports events and setting the conclusion of the so-called experiment ten months after the Olympics end.
Pro-establishment narrative
This bill — overwhelmingly passed in the Senate — will help France detect potentially dangerous disturbances and ensure mitigated crowd control risks to those attending public events. Despite existing concerns about data privacy, neither biometric data nor facial recognition will be used and there will be no link with any other personal data system.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that a Machine Learning model will achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast by November 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Falls in Global Corruption Rankings
Following a year of high-profile corruption scandals, the UK has dropped from 11th place to 18th with a score of 73 out of 100 on Transparency International's 180-country corruption perceptions index (CPI), which uses measures from the Economist Intelligence Unit, World Economic Forum, and World Justice Project.
The report, which notes the UK as experiencing the sharpest decline among all G7 countries, came two days after PM Rishi Sunak fired Conservative party chair Nadhim Zahawi over his tax affairs.
The UK has also recently dealt with public spending scandals, particularly regarding the Dept. of Health's mishandling of £14.9B ($17.3B) in COVID-era equipment, with Baroness Michelle Mone currently under criminal investigation into a fraudulent COVID supplies company.
Narrative A
London's leaders should be ashamed. The "corruption perceptions index" is the ultimate global poll, showing political and business experts' views on how transparent and frugal government leaders are. The UK's carelessness regarding taxpayer money and "pay-to-play politics" is clear for all the world to see.
Narrative B
What this report shows is that every nation — Western, democratic, Eastern, and authoritarian — is corrupt. With only eight countries actually improving their scores, the world is becoming more dangerous for people all across the globe with no signs of reversing. The UK's decline is symbolic of worldwide corruption.
Santos Steps Down From House Committees Assignments
A spokesperson for US Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) confirmed on Tuesday that he has decided to step down from his House committee assignments to prevent from being a "distraction" amid investigations into his finances and other issues.
Santos, who was set to serve on the Small Business and Science Committees, reportedly expressed his choice at a closed-door GOP gathering on Tuesday and privately to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) a day earlier.
This comes as federal authorities and the House Ethics Committee are probing the origins of $700K the congressman loaned from his consulting company to his 2022 campaign, along with several expenditures that were a penny below the itemization threshold.
Republican narrative
Even though casting Santos aside could have made it easier to punish Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, and Ilhan Omar, Speaker McCarthy remained professional in his neutral stance on the Santos saga. But now that the New York representative has decided to step down, the GOP has the moral high ground to hold the three Democrat representatives accountable and strip their assignments.
Democratic narrative
This was likely part of a compromise among House Republicans to persuade those resisting to boot Ilhan Omar from her assignment on the Foreign Affairs Committee. Though the GOP may successfully limit its exposure to claims of hypocrisy, there is still a chance that this indicates another damaging story about Santos is about to break.
Nerd narrative
There's a 71% chance that Republicans will win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden to End COVID Emergency in May
US Pres. Biden on Monday announced to Congress that his admin. will end the national and public COVID health emergencies on May 11, as most of the world has moved to or towards normalcy almost three years after the pandemic was declared.
Biden's announcement comes amidst resolutions put forward by House Republicans to bring the emergencies to an immediate end and launch investigations into the federal government’s response to the virus. In contrast, the Office of Management and Budget has said an "abrupt end" would cause "wide-ranging chaos" within the healthcare system.
As of right now, the COVID national emergency is set to expire on March 1 while the public health emergency will expire on April 11, but once Biden extends them they will both end on May 11.
Democratic narrative
Though it was not always clear what the right answer was at the time, the US has managed to persevere through the pandemic, and the decision to officially end these emergencies will soon become necessary. COVID has not disappeared by any means, which is why Biden is giving healthcare facilities months to prepare.
Republican narrative
Though it is much appreciated that the government will finally declare the pandemic over, this move should have been made far earlier as opposed to waiting another third of a year. The Biden admin. is still unable to get a clear message out about COVID — having previously said it's over before backtracking. Biden's move to end Title 42 will likely exacerbate the southern border crises even more. The administration's COVID policies have been dysfunctional and harmful.
Study: COVID Set Back Students By 35% of a Year
A study published in “Nature Human Behavior” on Monday reported that students lost more than one-third of a school year’s worth of learning after the start of the COVID pandemic, which caused global school closures.
The study analyzed 42 reports across 15 countries and found that, in addition to closures, the shift to remote learning and the mental health toll of being out of school contributed to the learning loss, with particular deficiencies found in math.
The analysis also concluded that, although efforts by schools to prevent further learning loss have mostly been successful, attempts to catch the kids up have fallen short.
Narrative A
In the face of an unprecedented pandemic, governments did their best, and school closures were deemed necessary. While COVID's exacerbation of what was an already existing global education crisis is inarguable, it's now time to focus on collective action to lay the foundations for more equitable and resilient education systems worldwide.
Narrative B
School closures were universally rushed based on the misplaced presumption that it would prevent the spread of COVID, and children worldwide are now paying the price. Even with aggressive action, the drain on students' learning, mental health, and socio-economic development will be felt for years to come.