01 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

Day 343: Russian Forces Claim 'Operational Encirclement' of Bakhmut

Facts

  • Pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) claimed on Wednesday that their forces have largely encircled the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, which is referred to as Artyomovsk in Russian.
  • "Artyomovsk is currently in an operational encirclement and our forces are closing in on the city," Yan Gagin, an adviser to the head of the DPR, told Russian television on Wednesday. "Fighting is underway to control the highway connecting Artyomovsk with Chasiv Yar because it is the only route that Ukraine can use to provide supplies to its troops in Artyomovsk."
  • The city, with a pre-war population of 80K, has largely turned into a ghost town according to accounts. Russia poured scores of fighters to take the city, and Ukraine did the same to defend it — both are believed to have sustained heavy losses in months of fierce fighting since the summer.
  • Earlier in the week, Denys Yaroslavskyi, who commands a Ukrainian unit in Bakhmut, told CNN that leadership may decide to withdraw from the city to save lives if encirclement looks imminent.
  • Ukrainian officials said that four civilians had been killed in the Donetsk region over the past day — including two people in Bakhmut. One civilian was killed and another was injured in Kherson, officials added; one civilian was injured in Kharkiv while Russian attacks were also recorded in the regions of Sumy and Mykolaiv with no reports of civilian casualties at this stage.
  • Elsewhere, as Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy said he is preparing a range of reforms targeting corruption ahead of an EU-Ukraine summit later this week, Ukrainian media reported that authorities raided the home of billionaire Igor Kolomoisky on Wednesday.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

In attempting to take Bakhmut, Russian forces have used scorched earth tactics and turned the once-popular tourist destination into a hell-on-earth. The Kremlin is so hungry for any success that it's willing to go to any length to take the city — even if it's been turned to rubble.

Pro-Russia narrative

If Russian forces take control of Bakhmut, it would be a devastating loss for Ukraine. Not only has Ukraine lost hundreds of troops in trying to retain the city, but this operation would also enable Russia to continue its advance into key areas of Donetsk including Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance that the regions surrounding the Dnipro River (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson) will be under Russian control by June 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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UK: Worst Strikes in a Decade Close Schools, Cripple Rail Network

Facts

  • Some 475k union members in the UK went on strike on Wednesday, demanding pay raises in response to the cost of living crisis. Major train stations in London completely closed, and roughly 85% of schools in England and Wales either fully or partially closed.
  • Teachers, university staff, train drivers, and civil servants stopped working as the Trades Union Congress, representing 48 unions, also launched over 75 rallies across the country in response to a government bill it calls an "attack" on the right to strike.
  • The bill in question — approved by MPs by a vote of 315 to 246 on Tuesday — would require basic service levels be upheld in the rail industry and emergency services in the event of strikes. It now moves to the House of Lords for further review.
  • The strikes, expected to be the largest in over a decade, come as the public sector union members saw pay raises of less than 5% last year compared to inflation rates above 10%. More than 100k teachers from 23k schools in England and Wales are expected to strike.
  • Commuters will also face disruptions as 15 train operators are expected to halt operations on Thursday and Friday. Rail union TSSA on Wednesday received two formal offers and is now deciding whether to bring them to its members.
  • Last year's strikes cost the UK an estimated £1.5B ($1.85) in the final quarter of 2022, and the economy is projected to shrink further in the first quarter of 2023, leaving PM Rishi Sunak's government searching for answers as it faces approval ratings of under 50%.

Spin

Left narrative

Historically low wages call for historically massive strikes. Adjusted for inflation, public sector workers today are making £203 ($250) less per month than in 2010, and the government is now trying to strip their only way of bargaining for a living wage. If Sunak's government really wants to help the working class, his ministers should focus on putting more money in their pockets rather than ridiculing the only form of self-empowerment they have.

Right narrative

This is being represented as a massive, unified national strike when, in reality, obscure government departments that aren't as crucial as train drivers and teachers are being lumped together with essential workers to bolster its impression. Even regarding essential workers, the unions conveniently left out that they continued to get paid during the pandemic — even if they didn't work — while private sector workers were left out to dry. While pay has certainly lagged behind inflation, increases need to be accompanied by productivity, which has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.

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Biden Proposes Bill to Cut "Junk Fees"

Facts

  • During the fourth meeting of the Presidential Competition Council on Wednesday, US Pres. Joe Biden urged Congress to pass a bill known as the Junk Fee Protection Act to curb hidden fees across various industries.
  • The legislation — a joint proposal with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) — takes aim at reducing or eliminating allegedly excessive consumer fees placed on online ticket purchases for concerts, sporting events, and other entertainment events.
  • It also targets airline fees for families traveling together, resort and destination fees, and the costs associated with canceling TV subscriptions, phone, and internet services.
  • The CFPB also proposed cutting late credit card fees to $8 — a move estimated to save families billions of dollars and make the credit card market more competitive.
  • Currently, credit card companies charge roughly $30 for late fees. The cumulative total of fees collected is estimated at $9B annually. Following a comment period and the finalization of the new rule, the $8 fee maximum would go into effect in 2024.
  • The meeting also saw the Commerce Dept. release a report evaluating Apple's and Google's hold in the app world, issuing calls for an end to the companies' alleged "self-preference" for their own apps and a ban on requirements that apps use the companies' in-app payment network.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Pres. Biden and his economic policies — such as this latest effort — have brought the US into the best economic growth since the former Pres. Bill Clinton was in office, even in the face of the current tumultuous environment. While consumer prices have risen faster under the Biden presidency, the economy overall is in much better shape than he's given credit for. Once inflation slows, his leadership through tough economic times will shine.

Republican narrative

Not only is the economy actually suffering, but Biden doesn't seem to notice, showing how out of touch the White House is with the American people. Under his administration, inflation rates have risen to their highest in 40 years, and 78% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse. As Biden continues to lie to the American people about the state of their pockets, Americans are left wondering where a soft-landing spot will be found.

Cynical narrative

While Biden may have good intentions, targeting these so-called "junk fees" may actually end up costing Americans more. These extra fees are what's known as "unbundling," which allows consumers to pay more or less depending on the services they need. By getting rid of them, businesses will likely level the playing field by raising and standardizing prices, forcing customers to pay for services they don't want.

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EU Sets Forth 'Green Industry Plan'

Facts

  • On Wednesday, the European Commission announced plans to loosen state aid rules and propose a new European sovereignty fund to counter the US's $369B Inflation Reduction Act and China's "unfair" subsidies to domestic green technologies.
  • According to the proposal, the Green Deal Industrial Plan would preserve a European edge on critical and emerging technologies.
  • In addition, EU Pres. Ursula von der Leyen proposed faster approval of green projects and sealing trade agreements to secure supplies of critical raw materials to reduce EU dependence on China.
  • The EU is reportedly racing to compete with the US to avoid businesses relocating to North America — where energy costs are cheaper — making the United States a leader in green tech at Europe's expense.
  • EU leaders are due to meet next week in Brussels to discuss the plan — which includes an estimated $500B in new spending and tax breaks over a decade — to secure the EU's industrial leadership in the fast-growing net-zero technology sector.
  • The International Energy Agency estimates the global market for mass-produced clean energy will triple to around $650B a year by 2030.

Spin

Narrative A

US green subsidies — which offer incentives for US buyers of electric vehicles if they "Buy American" — and unfair competition from China threaten the EU's industries as they tend to leave European firms uncompetitive and lure investments to the US and Asia. As a result, the EU plan offers a global playing field.

Narrative B

The EU plan must be revisited as it only helps wealthy countries such as Germany, which have the fiscal capacity to invest in domestic firms. Not all EU countries can offer subsidies to the same extent as France or Germany. As the plan could entail further joint borrowing, the EU must use funds already approved instead of seeking more money.

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FBI Searches Biden's Delaware Home, No Classified Documents Found

Facts

  • After a 3.5-hour FBI search of US Pres. Joe Biden's home in Rehoboth Beach, Del. on Wednesday, Biden's lawyer Bob Bauer said the "planned search" found no classified documents, but agents took "for further review some materials and handwritten notes that appear to relate to his time as Vice President."
  • This comes as classified documents were discovered at one of Biden's other homes and a private office. According to Bauer, the FBI "sought to do this work without advance public notice" and the president "will continue to fully support and facilitate" the investigation.
  • Biden most recently visited the beach house on the weekend of Jan. 20-23 to avoid the then-ongoing search at his Wilmington, Del. home. Both residences reportedly lacked Secret Service protection for several months following his vice presidency.
  • Wednesday's search came one day after multiple media outlets reported that the FBI had already searched the president's old Washington, DC, office after a small number of classified documents were found there last November.
  • The FBI's Jan. 20 search of Biden's Wilmington home confiscated multiple documents dating back to the president's time as vice president and US Senator.
  • US Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed special counsel Robert Hur to probe Biden's potential mishandling of the documents. Former Pres. Donald Trump is also still under investigation for classified documents found at his Florida residence, and former VP Mike Pence recently revealed that he found classified material at his Indiana home.

Spin

Republican narrative

After already waiting weeks to reveal the original batch of classified documents found in Biden's DC office, the FBI again took its sweet time to finally search his Rehoboth Beach house. You would think the FBI would want to quickly sweep the house after discovering that Hunter Biden was using his father's Wilmington mansion as an unofficial office to conduct business with some of the same countries cited in the documents. The hypocrisy after the treatment of Trump is dumbfounding.

Democratic narrative

There’s a big difference between the Trump and Biden cases. Trump violated the law by possessing classified papers and attempting to cover up his actions. The former president is facing a serious investigation because he knowingly held sensitive information and actively worked to keep it from the archives. Biden did neither of those things and is being fully cooperative with the investigation, so GOP claims of hypocrisy are unfounded.

Cynical narrative

Neither Trump nor Biden should have ever mishandled any classified information, and both should be investigated per the severity of their violations. However, the "overclassification" of US government documents has been raised for over a decade, and the bureaucracy of the federal government has produced an administrative nightmare. There must be accountability and reforms to a flawed classification system.

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Tom Brady Announces Retirement

Facts

  • Tom Brady, a record-breaking, seven-time Super Bowl champion quarterback, announced his retirement on Wednesday, marking the end of his 23-year career.
  • Brady made his announcement via a video posted to social media informing the public that he was “retiring for good.” He previously retired exactly one year ago to the day, before announcing he would return to play for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two months later.
  • Despite rumors that teams, including the Miami Dolphins or Las Vegas Raiders, were interested in the soon-to-be 46-year-old, it’s been reported that Brady only considered two options: retiring or re-signing with Tampa Bay.
  • During his prior retirement, Brady inked a 10-year, $375M contract with Fox Sports to be the network’s lead game analyst alongside Kevin Burkhardt. This means Brady might replace Greg Olsen, Fox’s current lead analyst and former NFL tight end.
  • Brady spent 20 seasons with the New England Patriots, rising to stardom after being the 199th pick in the 2000 draft. He won six Super Bowl championships and three NFL MVPs with the club before signing with Tampa Bay in 2020, winning the Super Bowl in his first season with the club.

Spin

Narrative A

There’s nothing you can say about Brady to overstate his greatness and legacy. The numbers, accolades, and championships speak for themselves, but what truly made him the “GOAT” was his sheer will to be great and overcome adversity. Despite being doubted his whole career, and not possessing the best physical attributes, he accomplished more than anybody has or ever will.

Narrative B

There will be an endless stream of Brady echo chambers lauding his achievements while eulogizing his career, but don’t forget its darker side. Brady and the Patriots were embroiled in scandals from the start of his career, and he should not be able to escape the “cheater” label. If sports greats like Barry Bonds and Lance Armstrong are considered cheaters, even while out of the spotlight, so should Brady.

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Report: French Forces Seize Yemen-Bound Weapons

Facts

  • A Wall Street Journal report published on Wednesday says that French Special Forces last month, in coordination with the US military, intercepted a boat allegedly carrying Iranian-supplied weapons and ammunition bound for Yemen.
  • A French warship reportedly stopped a suspected smuggling ship off the Yemeni coast on Jan. 15 and, after boarding the ship, discovered more than 3k assault rifles, 500k rounds of ammunition, and 20 anti-tank guided missiles.
  • The operation came a little over a week after the US Navy seized more than 2K assault rifles and 50 tons of ammunition when it intercepted a suspected smuggling vessel operated by Yemeni nationals in the Gulf of Oman.
  • In July, the UK navy, with support from a US navy destroyer, reported that it seized a shipment of advanced Iranian surface-to-air missiles and engines for land-attack cruise missiles en route to Yemen in the Gulf of Oman.
  • The US and its allies believe Iran has supplied the Houthis with missiles, drones, and other weapons used in attacks against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and their allied forces in Yemen, breaking the UN's arms embargo on the country. Iran denies arming the Houthis.
  • War broke out in Yemen in 2014, driving the country toward the brink of famine and a humanitarian disaster. Though a UN-backed truce took effect in April of last year, it ended on Oct. 2 after just six months. Despite this, fighting hasn't escalated. The UN has since been pressing for an extended and broader deal.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This seizure confirms a long-standing suspicion that Iran has been sneaking arms to Yemen's Houthis in breach of the UN weapons embargo. By doing so, Tehran continues to undermine peace efforts in the country and is prolonging the conflict.

Establishment-critical narrative

Having sold countless billions of dollars worth of advanced weapons to the self-proclaimed military coalition behind the brutal war, the West lacks any credibility when it accuses Iran of foreign meddling. Though they blame Tehran for the conflict and the subsequent humanitarian crisis, it's ultimately the Western nations that are partnering with a coalition of war criminals.

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Myanmar: Junta Extends State of Emergency

Facts

  • Myanmar's military leaders announced on Wednesday — two years after taking over the country — a six-month extension to a state of emergency, a move that would likely delay elections the government vowed to hold by August.
  • The announcement made on state-run media stated that the National Defense and Security Council agreed in a meeting on Tuesday that the country remains in an abnormal situation and time is needed to prepare for a peaceful and stable election.
  • This comes as opposition demonstrators held a "silent strike" to mark two years since the ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi, urging people to stay indoors and businesses to close, while Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US coordinated a new round of sanctions against the junta.
  • Suu Kyi's government was overthrown on Feb. 1, 2021, as the military declared a two-year-long state of emergency amid allegations of widespread election fraud after her party achieved a landslide victory.
  • After the military junta took over the country, large parts of Myanmar descended into chaos and a civil war erupted. Some 1.5M people have reportedly been displaced, with the UN believing that around 15M people are facing food insecurity.
  • More than 2.9K people have been killed and 18K have been arrested, according to a local monitoring group, as a direct consequence of the military's crackdown on dissent, including Suu Kyi who has been sentenced to 33 years in prison following a series of closed-court trials.

Spin

Narrative A

The international community must remain firm against Myanmar's illegal and illegitimate military rule, imposing further coordinated sanctions on the junta and supporting the pro-democracy shadow National Unity Government. Because the nationwide human rights, humanitarian, and economic crisis resulting from the coup remains, a peaceful and democratic transition is impossible.

Narrative B

Due to its commitment to restoring perpetual peace and stability in Myanmar, the State Administration Council had no option other than to extend the state of emergency as insurgents and terrorists are trying to seize power. In addition, this move is needed also to ensure correct voter lists for the upcoming election.

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UK Archives: GW Bush Ordered CIA to Find Replacement for Arafat

Facts

  • Recently-released British documents reveal that former US Pres. George W. Bush ordered the CIA to search for a replacement for Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat a few months after he entered the White House. This was concurrent with the second Intifada ramping up in 2001.
  • This comes as the UK National Archives disclosed last month the "PREM49/2354" files about the UK-US relations covering the period from Feb. 24 to Apr. 26, 2001.
  • Bush reportedly confided via telephone to then Prime Minister Tony Blair on Mar. 31, 2001 that the CIA had unsuccessfully looked to find a replacement for Arafat, who he described as "weak as hell" while talking about the Middle East Peace Process.
  • Then US Secretary of State Colin Powell reportedly opposed the search for a replacement for Arafat. Arafat died a few years later — on Nov. 11, 2004 — at a Paris hospital after a cerebral hemorrhage allegedly caused by the toxic substance polonium. Palestinians blamed Israel for his death, which it denied.
  • The Bush admin., which took office in January 2001 when the second Intifada was at its peak, had urged Palestinian leaders to halt the uprising before launching security talks with Israel.
  • The second Intifada broke out following Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's entry into the Al-Aqsa compound in September 2000 amid stalled previous negotiations between Arafat and the then Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, at the 2000 Camp David Summit.

Spin

Narrative A

Arafat was not the leader of the Palestinians, but rather someone with authoritarian tendencies who furthered corruption in the region. The defeat of his Fatah party in the 2006 elections was the people's response to those who could have established a state but preferred to pursue their personal interests. Bush's concerns were well-founded.

Narrative B

Arafat sacrificed his life for the Palestinian cause, serving as a role model for future generations and achieving undeniable success — such as convincing the world about the legitimacy of his people's resistance against Israeli oppression and proving Zionist racism was morally, ethically, and legally wrong. As Palestinians face hardship today, a visionary leader like Arafat is needed once again.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US pretends to be a proponent of democracy and popular rule, yet the gap between its rhetoric and actual foreign policy couldn't be bigger. For years, the US has unapologetically meddled in foreign countries to suit its own agenda; wanting to overthrow the democratically elected Arafat is but one example. Sadly, it doesn't look like this will change anytime soon.

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Nikki Haley Planning to Announce 2024 Presidential Run

Facts

  • After teasing the concept for months, former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is expected to announce her candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
  • Haley’s team is reportedly sending invitations to her supporters to attend a "special announcement" on Feb. 15 at The Shed at the Charleston Visitor Center in downtown Charleston, S.C.
  • Haley is set to become the second major GOP candidate to enter the 2024 race following former Pres. Donald Trump, who announced his White House bid after the November midterm elections.
  • Haley’s expected announcement is a reversal from her previous statements in which she said that she would not run for president if Trump ran. In April 2021, she said, "I would not run if President Trump ran, and I would talk to him about it."
  • Trump told reporters on Saturday that Haley called him to say she was considering a run, to which he reportedly told her to "go by your heart if you want to run." Haley and fellow S.C. Republican Tim Scott were absent at Trump’s Saturday campaign event in Columbia.
  • Haley is considered a longshot to win the GOP nomination as she was in fourth place in a recent Trafalgar Group poll.

Spin

Narrative A

While Nikki Haley has an uphill battle to secure the GOP nomination in 2024, she is an intriguing candidate with unique qualities compared to the prospective primary field. As a woman of color, she could represent a diverse future for the party, and being the first female of color president would look great for the Republican Party. Her victory might finally end America's divisive culture wars.

Narrative B

Nikki Haley represents everything that is wrong with the GOP and is a dangerous neocon relic from the G.W. Bush era. She will likely focus on the military-industrial complex instead of taking on Big Tech or standing up to leftist ideology, which is concerning. America and the GOP can't afford a candidate driven by the elitist political winds.

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