14 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

Thousands of Fish Found Dead After Ohio Train Derailment

Facts

  • After the dead fish had been spotted, residents in Pennsylvania were advised to open their windows, turn on fans, and wipe down all surfaces with diluted bleach.
  • Apart from resulting in the deaths of thousands of fish, the Ohio train derailment also fatally impacted foxes, coyotes, and wild birds.
  • The confirmation comes days after a Norfolk Southern train carrying vinyl chloride — a colorless and highly flammable gas used to make PVC plastics, which decomposes into toxic fumes — went off the tracks and burst into flames in north-eastern Ohio, stoking fears of a potential explosion.
  • The Ohio Department of Natural Resources said Monday that the train derailment and spillage of toxic chemicals in East Palestine on Feb. 3 has killed at least 3.5K fish — primarily small suckers, minnows, darters, and sculpin — in the Leslie Run stream.
  • The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Emergency Response confirmed an “impact to Sulfur Creek and waters of the state of Ohio,” but maintained there had been little to no impact on the air and water quality in the area.
  • Though the fire is no longer burning and authorities have assured evacuated residents that it is safe to return to their homes, the wreckage is still being removed from the site.

Spin

Narrative A

This accident raises questions about the rail transportation of vinyl chloride and brings rail safety in general under scrutiny. It also serves as a huge wake-up call to Americans living in close proximity to rail lines about the potential risks they face. The federal government's lax regulations on and inspections of the rail industry have enabled risks to rise — safety improvements must be made through the enforcement of proper protocols, checks, and balances.

Narrative B

Rail is the safest transport option for the movement of chemicals compared with truck travel. Rail transport experiences just 10% of the accidents that occur in truck transport, and those accidents are on the decline by as much as 33%. Nonetheless, higher investments in rail networks can improve safety performance, while investment in community relations can also help build trust between the public, railroads, and transportation safety agencies.

Narrative C

The real issue here is the response to the disaster. Vinyl chloride is a serious health hazard, and authorities failed to deal with the chemical spill properly, simply covering the contaminated soil after burning without proper assessment. Vinyl chloride, however, is highly mobile in soil and risks eventually leaching into groundwater. It's not a question of if there will be a problem, but simply when it will occur and how bad it will be.

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New Zealand Declares Rare Emergency for Cyclone

Facts

  • Auckland Airport canceled all domestic flights for the rest of Tuesday because of the strong winds. The New Zealand Meteorological Service recorded wind gusts of over 87 miles per hour (140 kilometers per hour) and waves reaching 36 feet high (11 meters) along the coast, while other regions, including Wellington, will receive additional rainfall of up to 150 millimeters through Thursday.
  • New Zealand declared a state of emergency for just the third time in its history on Tuesday, as Cyclone Gabrielle destroyed roads, flooded homes, and left more than 100K people without electricity.
  • New Zealand has declared national-scale emergencies only twice before — once after a 2011 earthquake and again for COVID in 2020.
  • Parts of the North Island have been completely cut off due to damaged roads and flooding, with the military supporting evacuations and delivering supplies in the worst-affected areas.
  • Rising waters stranded people on rooftops, roads were submerged by floodwaters and houses were swept away by landslides. Prime Minister Chris Hipkins told reporters, “It has been a big night for New Zealanders across the country, but particularly in the upper North Island…a lot of families displaced, a lot of homes without power, extensive damage done across the country.”
  • So far, about 2.5K people have been displaced and another 225K people are without electricity. New Zealand's Minister for Emergency Management called the event "unprecedented" for the North Island.

Spin

Narrative A

Cyclone Gabrielle is the most significant weather event New Zealand has seen in a century. Cyclones and other extreme climate-catalyzed weather disasters will ultimately change how nations like New Zealand build safe and sustainable communities. New Zealand has made many mistakes regarding sustainable planning in the past and it's time to confront a new normal.

Narrative B

It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century will be at least 8.84% of world GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Three People Killed at Michigan State University, Gunman Dead

Facts

  • A gunman on Monday opened fire at Michigan State University, killing three people and critically wounding five others. He fatally shot himself hours later as police confronted him following a manhunt.
  • According to data from the non-profit group Gun Violence Archive, this was the 67th mass shooting in America this year.
  • Police announced the death of the shooter as 43-year-old Anthony Dwayne McRae. Investigators are still determining the motive.
  • The suspect reportedly had no known affiliation with the university. Interim deputy chief of the campus police department Chris Rozman said he had no idea why the gunman had targeted the campus. "This truly has been a nightmare that we are living tonight," he said.
  • The three fatalities and five injuries are confirmed to be University of Michigan students. The wounded students are still in critical condition.
  • While there is no longer a perceived threat to the campus, officials have said the university will move into emergency operations for the next two days, including having an increased police presence on site. All classes, athletics, and campus-related activities have been canceled for the 48 hours following the shooting.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Yet another tragic and preventable mass shooting has taken place on US soil and Congress is still failing to act. The American legislature has not seriously debated the problem of gun control for a decade because Republicans are continuing to stall the desperately needed legislation. While new laws cannot prevent all mass shootings, they would stop some of them. Any change, even if it isn't perfect, is worthwhile to protect innocent lives.

Republican narrative

Bluntly imposing restrictions on legal ownership would do nothing to tackle the root causes of mass shootings, but it would threaten the second amendment rights of law abiding Americans. Mass shooters either obtain their weapons illegally, or legally before having a criminal record, so further restrictions on gun ownership serve no practical use in terms of prevention. Democrats may want to be seen to be doing something in response to these massacres, but autocratic and unconstitutional gun bans are not a solution.

Narrative C

If lawmakers truly want to act to prevent these heinous attacks plaguing America, they must bridge partisan dichotomies to understand the political and social convictions about guns and gun violence behind each other's ideological stances. Though to liberals more guns equate to more deaths, conservatives equate gun rights with fundamental American freedom. Despite conflicting priorities, both sides believe in a right to safety and liberty in US society. Through clearer dialogue, a route towards imposing more practical solutions to gun violence, that also respects the right to responsible gun ownership, is within reach.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the murder rate in the US will be at least 5.65 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.

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Philippines Accuses China of Using Laser at Sea

Facts

  • China, which claims "indisputable sovereignty" over almost the entire South China Sea, responded on Monday that the Philippine vessel had trespassed into the waters of the Chinese Renai Reef without Beijing's permission.
  • Last week, the PRC ship allegedly also navigated dangerously close, around 450 feet (137 meters), to block the Philippine patrol vessel BRP Malapascua from approaching Second Thomas Shoal — a submerged reef that has been occupied by Philippine forces.
  • The incident reportedly took place as the Philippine ship was attempting to support a navy mission to bring food and supplies to troops at the reef in the disputed Spratly Islands.
  • The Philippine Coast Guard claimed that China had also prevented its ships from reaching the shoal in August 2022, when two ships from the Chinese Military Militia reportedly joined two Chinese coast guard vessels to allegedly form a blockade, and also in November 2021.
  • The Philippines on Monday charged a Chinese coast guard ship with temporarily blinding some crew members of a Philippine coast guard vessel with a military-grade laser in the South China Sea, describing it as a "blatant" violation of Philippine sovereign rights.
  • This comes as the Philippine Pres. Marcos has recently deepened security ties with Japan and the US, granting the US access to additional military bases in the Philippines under a Visiting Forces Agreement.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

The country closest to Taiwan and the South China Sea, the Philippines is faced with opportunities and challenges it must deal with in the face of Chinese aggression. With its relationship with the US as the key, it's time for the Philippine people to come together and support a coherent foreign policy, modernize its defense forces, and defend their sovereign rights.

Pro-China narrative

The PRC vessel exercised professional restraint during its on-site operations. While China has been accused of aggression, it is the Philippines that has frequently engaged in provocative behavior on the reef in the past decade — seeking to undermine China's sovereign rights and regional stability.

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Day 356: At NATO Talks, Ukraine Seeks Warplanes; Allies Concerned Over Ammo

Facts

  • Ahead of the talks, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters: "It is clear that we are in a race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel, and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield."
  • Meanwhile, as officials continued to report heavy fighting in and around the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces have reportedly blown up a bridge near the city — signaling that Ukrainian forces may be preparing a retreat. Ukrainian officials also restricted journalists’ access to Bakhmut on Monday, though they have denied that they intend to withdraw.
  • Ten days away from the one-year anniversary of the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war last February, the Ukraine Defense Contact group met for the ninth time at NATO's headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday.
  • Ukrainian officials reported that one civilian was killed and three others were injured in Donetsk over the past day, while two civilians were killed and three more were injured in the Kherson region.
  • While Ukraine's defense minister Oleksii Reznikov used the talks to press allies for fighter jets — which Western partners have so far refused — partners were reportedly more concerned with providing ammunition amid fears Ukraine is using stockpiles faster than Western countries can currently supply.
  • While US defense secretary Lloyd Austin told the meeting that allies are prepared to support Ukraine "for the long haul" and reports suggested the US will unveil a new arms package next week, one senior Biden official told the Washington Post that diplomats are privately warning Ukraine that long-term security assistance is not guaranteed. "We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever," the official reportedly said on the condition of anonymity.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Supplying Ukraine with ammunition, fuel, and spare parts is currently more vital than supplying new weaponry. Delivering new equipment that would take months of training has to take a back seat to ensuring that Ukraine has the supplies it needs to operate existing weapons and systems.

Establishment-critical narrative

Multi-billion dollar weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical Ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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EU Lawmakers Approve Ban on Gas-Powered Cars From 2035

Facts

  • Several other countries, including Canada, the UK, and Norway, have approved similar target dates to ban new combustion engine vehicles. While the US hasn't joined these countries, California passed similar legislation last year.
  • The European Parliament (EP) on Tuesday approved a law that would effectively ban the sale of new gas- and diesel-powered vehicles in the EU starting in 2035. Specifically, it will require a 55% cut in CO2 emissions for new cars by 2030 — compared to 2021 levels — and 100% by 2035.
  • The formal approval comes after EU member states agreed on an outline of the bill last year, which includes a compromise that could allow the sale of vehicles running on carbon-neutral fuel. These would be the only new carbon-producing vehicles allowed after 2035.
  • Volkswagen, however, has already begun investing in and is prepared to only sell EVs in Europe by 2033.
  • While supporters of the bill argue it will give European carmakers a clear timeframe to achieve zero-emission electric vehicles, conservative MEPs say the industry isn't ready for such a change and that it could put hundreds or thousands of jobs at risk.
  • With final approval of the bill not expected until March, it has already faced industry resistance, resulting in concessions, such as allowing small carmakers producing less than 10k vehicles annually to negotiate weaker targets until 2036.

Spin

Left narrative

While any fossil fuel ban enshrined into law is better than no law at all, the 2035 rule is too late if Europe wants to abide by the Paris agreement and actually halt climate change. In order to do so, all cars should be electric by 2028. This would not only help prevent the Earth from warming more than 1.5°C but also save Europeans hundreds of millions of euros in fuel costs.

Right narrative

The EU's zero-emissions vehicle push isn't just likely to lead to job cuts; it definitely will. Car manufacturers are already planning on cutting jobs across the continent to meet EV goals, with Ford recently announcing plans to eliminate 3.8k positions in Europe. Moreover, these are skilled engineering jobs, but company executives say that as they switch from combustion engines to EV production, these skills will become obsolete.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 34.4% of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Syria Aid Enters Newly-Opened Border Crossing

Facts

  • Following an agreement between the Syrian government and the UN regarding the opening of two additional border crossings from Turkey into opposition-held northwest Syria earlier this week, 11 trucks crossed into the region on Tuesday to deliver aid to the millions of victims of last week's earthquakes.
  • Last week's earthquakes killed tens of thousands of people in southern Turkey and northern Syria. Aid delivery in Syria has been complicated by continued hostilities in the area between pro-government and opposition forces.
  • Originally, the UN Security Council established four approved routes in 2014: two from Turkey, one from Jordan, and one from Iraq. However, by 2021, Russia used its veto authority to limit aid delivery to only one crossing.
  • Over 4M people were in need of aid in opposition-held regions before the earthquakes even occurred, as Syria has been in a state of civil war for the past 12 years.
  • Russian Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy defended Russia's posture toward cross-border aid by saying that the UN was violating Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by sending aid directly from Turkey to opposition-held areas instead of working with the Syrian government in Damascus.
  • The two new crossing points at Bab al-Salameh, the crossing used on Tuesday, and al-Raee will be open for an initial period of three months. Before the agreement, the UN was only able to deliver aid via the Bab al-Hawa crossing between Turkey and Idlib.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the opening of more aid corridors is always a positive development, it should have happened far sooner. Indeed, if it were not for Russian interference, more cross-border aid deliveries could have been made before the earthquakes even struck the area. Ultimately, however, the US itself is not innocent either, as it has systematically failed the Syrian people at every turn.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though the Western media try to blame the Syrian government and Russia for the lack of aid to opposition-held areas, it is the opposition itself that is stopping aid delivery. The West has waged a long and dirty war against Syria using its jihadist proxies, who are now preventing aid from government-held areas from entering the regions that they control. Damascus has always been willing to help its own people.

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Nikki Haley Announces 2024 Presidential Run

Facts

  • According to South Carolina-based social conservative leader Dave Wilson, Haley has been "laying the groundwork" for a presidential bid since assuming the UN ambassadorship, which she left in 2018.
  • Ex-UN Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley officially announced her campaign for the 2024 Republican US presidential nomination on Tuesday, joining former Pres. Donald Trump as the second declared candidate.
  • Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, is seen as a long shot to win the GOP nomination, consistently polling behind Trump and potential contender Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday showed that 4% of Republicans currently support her.
  • Haley’s decision to run is an about-face from her previous position, having said that she would support Trump if he decided to run. The former president wished Haley luck and wrote on his Truth Social platform that she "has to follow her heart.”
  • Instead, Haley posted a video announcing her bid, in which she said that "It’s time for a new generation of leadership." She also touted her resume as a twice-elected governor and pushed back against the idea "that America’s founding principles are bad."
  • This follows her invitations to supporters last week for a "special announcement" in which she was expected to announce her candidacy at The Shed at the Charleston Visitor Center in downtown Charleston, SC, on Feb. 15.

Spin

Republican narrative

While Nikki Haley has an uphill battle to secure the GOP nomination in 2024, she is an intriguing candidate with unique qualities in the prospective primary field. As a woman of color, she could also represent a diverse face for the party. Being the first female and woman of color as president would look good for the Republican Party.

Democratic narrative

While some in the GOP will call her a refreshing change from Donald Trump, Nikki Haley has fought for the core tenets of the MAGA movement since before MAGA even existed. She supports abortion bans without exceptions for rape or incest, as well as ending Medicare and giving tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy. If she was willing to terminate the rights of thousands of her South Carolinian constituents, it's terrifying to think of what she would do on the national level.

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BBC Offices in India Searched Following Modi Documentary

Facts

  • According to BBC sources, officials questioned the BBC accounts officer working in the New Delhi office and didn't allow others to leave. Tax officials have described the operation as a "credible survey operation."
  • Clashes over the documentary have escalated since its release. The Supreme Court received a petition last week from Hindu nationalists, who called for a complete ban on the BBC in response to the broadcast — it was quickly thrown out by judges as "absolutely meritless."
  • Income tax authorities have searched BBC offices in New Delhi and Mumbai, just weeks after the broadcaster released a controversial documentary criticizing Indian Prime Minister and BJP leader Narendra Modi.
  • January saw the BBC air a two-part documentary, which claimed during the religious riots in Gujarat in 2002 that Modi was "directly responsible" for a "climate of impunity" that facilitated the violence of the protests. The current Prime Minister served as Gujarat's chief minister at the time of the events which resulted in the deaths of over 1K people, mostly from the minority Muslim population.
  • Rights officials as well as opposition officials have objected to Tuesday's search as a violation of press freedom.
  • The broadcast — entitled "India: The Modi Question" — has been blocked on social media in the country. Despite being dismissed by the government as propaganda and described by the foreign ministry as a biased piece that revealed a "continuing colonial mindset," the BBC has affirmed its reporting and stated Tuesday that it was cooperating with Indian tax officials.

Spin

Narrative A

This is a blatant attack on journalists who have, through rigorous investigation, exposed Modi's record of oppressive and intolerant leadership. New Delhi is sliding into authoritarianism, a regression that has been accelerated by Modi's style of governance. Tax raids are a thin cover for what government officials are truly up to — concealing the erosion of human rights and persecution of minorities in India.

Narrative B

The surveys on the BBC premises are entirely warranted. Distinct from the broadcaster's recent controversial documentary — which has done irreparable damage to the sovereignty and integrity of India, as well as relations abroad and public order domestically — the offices are facing allegations of tax evasion and irregularities of international tax and financial transactions. Tax officials must be allowed to do their jobs unhindered by interference from the meddling of the international community.

Nerd narrative

There is a 53% chance that there will be a non-BJP PM of India before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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CDC: Mental Health Issues Rising in Teens, Especially Girls

Facts

  • A new report released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Monday details increased levels of violence, sadness, and suicidal thoughts among teenagers, especially girls, over the past 10 years.
  • According to the data, 57% of high school girls felt persistently sad or hopeless in 2021 — almost 60% more than in 2011. In addition, 30% of girls seriously considered attempting suicide, 18% experienced sexual violence in the past year, and 14% reported having been forced to have sex.
  • Although the report presented troubling trends, several areas of teen health — including a decrease in risky sexual behavior and alcohol use — saw improvement over the past decade.
  • In terms of race, suicidal ideation was up among Black, Hispanic, and White students.
  • The annual Youth Risk Behavior Survey, which polls US high school students on health and behaviors, provided the CDC with the data, which also showed 29% of boys reporting feeling persistently sad or hopeless — up from 21% in 2011.
  • The report also found that 52% of LGBTQ+ youth experienced poor mental health, including 20% saying they had attempted suicide in the past year. 22% of LGBTQ+ youth also reported facing sexual violence.

Spin

Narrative A

This shocking report is the latest sign we have to ween our children off of social media. Teenage use of social media has increased toxicity and further isolated teens after the pandemic increased their loneliness. It’s up to parents, schools, and all adults to lessen, or at least better monitor, teenagers’ social media activity.

Narrative B

Social media can have a negative influence, but we shouldn’t let schools — which should have better mental health and sex education programs — off the hook. It’s also important to make sure teens are allowed to grow up while free from the control and expectations of overbearing adults.

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