13 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

FBI Finds Another Classified Document at Pence's Home

Facts

  • According to a source familiar with the matter, Pence and his wife weren't home during the search, but a member of the former VP's legal team was present as the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) searched for what it considered might be original records that should have been sent to the National Archives.
  • After he delivered two boxes of classified material to the Bureau more than three weeks ago, the FBI on Friday discovered one additional classified document and six unclassified records at the home of former VP Mike Pence. Pence spokesperson Devin O'Malley said the five-hour search was "consensual," "thorough," and "unrestricted."
  • As Trump faces his criminal probe regarding potentially obstructing the DOJ's attempts to recover classified material, a second special counsel, Robert Hur, is investigating Biden's documents that were found in his former office in Washington, DC, and his home in Wilmington, Delaware.
  • Pence, who is seen as a potential contender against his former boss Trump in the 2024 presidential election, has admitted that mistakes have been made but that he had "acted above politics and put national interests first."
  • Some of the documents that have been found at Pence's house reportedly came from his office drawer at the White House, while others were from the vice presidential home at the Naval Observatory.
  • This comes as Pence, who last month told his team to search his home and office for documents following discoveries at Pres. Biden's former think tank office, was recently subpoenaed by special counsel Jack Smith in his probe into the documents found at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Though the GOP is trying to equate Biden's handling of documents with that of Trump, both Biden and Pence have actually cooperated with the national archives while Trump actively fights them, which is why the current president and former VP will likely face more leniency from the DOJ than their counterpart. As 2024 approaches, the potential presidential campaigns of Pence and Biden will face less controversy simply due to this fact.

Pro-Trump narrative

As Biden continues to tout his cooperation with the national archives as evidence of his moral superiority, what the other side won't mention is that Trump's Mar-a-Lago was protected by the Secret Service, while Biden's documents were stashed in an unguarded public building. It's hard to imagine what the FBI would find if it raided the private property of any former president — say, Obama — because those politicians are friends of the powers that be, which is the true double standard here.

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12 Al-Shabaab Fighters Killed in Airstrike, US Military Says

Facts

  • According to an initial AFRICOM assessment, no civilians were killed or injured in Friday's operation in the remote area about 472 km (293 mi) northeast of the Somali capital, Mogadishu.
  • As Washington last year redeployed hundreds of US troops to Somalia, the latest AFRICOM operation in the Horn of Africa country marks the fifth US airstrike against al-Shabaab in recent months that collectively have killed dozens of extremists.
  • In its statement, the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) stated that the airstrike, targeting what it says is the world's largest and deadliest al-Qaeda offshoot, was carried out at the request of the Somali government.
  • Meanwhile, at least nine were killed in renewed clashes between government forces and local militias in the Somaliland town of Las Anod on Saturday, following fighting that left dozens dead last week. Somaliland broke away from Somalia in 1991.
  • The US military said Sunday that it killed 12 al-Shabaab fighters in a "collective self-defense" airstrike in central Somalia amid the federal government's efforts to recapture territories from the Islamist militants.
  • This comes as Mogadishu on Friday also claimed that its army, along with regional forces, killed 117 al-Shabaab fighters, confirming a supporting airstrike by "international security partners" during the battle.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The uprising of a terror-weary population and the government's readiness to deprive al-Shabaab of its military and social breeding ground is pushing the extremists increasingly into trouble. Recent successes in the struggle against the terrorists and the population's courage must now be sustained by intensified Western stabilization efforts and bolstered military support. Otherwise, the window of opportunity could quickly close again with Somalia turning into an international security threat.

Establishment-critical narrative

Al-Shabaab is merely a symptom, not the cause, of Somalia's malaise. The terrorist threat may eventually be overcome, but Mogadishu's political elite, supported by the international community, will continue to pursue primarily its own interests rather than those of the people. Added to this is the lack of will for structural reforms and the fragmentation of society along ethnic lines promoted during the colonial era. With or without al-Shabbab, Somalia's tragedy is likely to continue.

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Israel Legalizes Nine West Bank Settlement Outposts

Facts

  • Despite drawing condemnation from the United Nations, there are reportedly more than 200 Israeli settlements built on land where Palestinians seek statehood. Reacting to this latest decision, Palestinian officials claimed that Israel crossed "all red lines" and undermined the revival of "the peace process."
  • National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, along with defense ministry Bezalel Smotrich, had requested the cabinet to legalize 77 outposts, but that was reportedly considered neither feasible nor acceptable by those participating in the meeting.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu argued that this decision was a response to a string of recent "murderous terrorist attacks" in East Jerusalem. Earlier, he had expressed his willingness to "strengthen settlements" in the West Bank, where over 475K Israelis live.
  • The first legalization of outposts by the Israeli government since 2012 was also criticized by the Biden admin., which manifested its opposition to any unilateral moves that could frustrate negotiations toward a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
  • The government will have to prove that the outposts — listed as Avigayil, Beit Hogla, Givat Harel, Givat Arnon, Mitzpe Yehuda, Malachei Hashalom, Asahel, Sde Boaz, and Shacharit — were established on what Israel considers to be state land as the High Court of Justice is likely to object to such a move.
  • The new Israeli government on Sunday approved the legalization of nine Jewish settlements in the West Bank that had previously been considered unauthorized outposts. Tel Aviv also announced plans to build new settlement homes.

Spin

Pro-Israel

Israel's new coalition government has made good on its campaign promise to legalize the so-called "young Israeli settlements" in the West Bank within 60 days in office. As the Jewish people have an exclusive and undeniable right to all parts of the Land of Israel, it is legitimate that it applies its sovereignty to Judea and Samaria.

Pro-Palestine

The legalization of outposts in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal both under international and Israeli law, is part of a major offensive against Palestinians. Even Israel's most loyal ally, the US, has strongly opposed this unreasonable decision, but the apartheid regime is now preparing to introduce legislation to strip Palestinians of Israeli citizenship if they are charged with terrorism.

Nerd narrative

There is a 44% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Cambodia: Prime Minister Orders Shut Down of Independent Broadcaster

Facts

  • A statement published on Hun Sen's Facebook page on Sunday announced that the VOD had its license to publish revoked and was compelled to stop broadcasting at 10:00 am Monday local time. It also encouraged foreign donors to withdraw their investments from the outlet, with Hun Sen saying: "Commentators tried to attack me and my son..."
  • One of the last remaining independent broadcasters in Cambodia, Voice of Democracy (VOD), has ceased operations after Prime Minister Hun Sen on Sunday ordered its shutdown over alleged attacks by the outlets on the politician and his son.
  • The broadcaster, which has recently produced renowned coverage of a slavery scam, also publishes in Khmer.
  • The Cambodian Center for Independent Media responded to the allegations by saying the VOD report quoted a government spokesperson — they said they regretted any confusion caused. A number of Western embassies, along with rights and press freedom organizations, have funded the Center, such as Reporters Without Borders and Transparency International.
  • The VOD was co-founded by journalist Alex Willemyns who saw a gap in the market for an English language broadcaster in 2019 after The Cambodia Daily was forced to cease operation in 2017 and a Malaysian owner purchased The Phnom Penh Post the following year.
  • VOD was accused of reporting misleading coverage about earthquake aid to Turkey — claiming that Hun Sen's son Lt. Gen. Hun Manet signed a document authorizing $100K in relief aid on behalf of his father. Such foreign aid packages can only be signed off with the authority of the prime minister.

Spin

Narrative A

VOD has built a reputation for doggedly investigating corruption and human rights abuses in Cambodia, such as issues of human trafficking and scam compounds. Hun Sen has not shut this organization down due to misreporting, he is seeking revenge for VOD's role in exposing official complicity in systemic fraud and exploitation. The international community cannot let this suppression of the free press go unchallenged.

Narrative B

VOD has taken responsibility for its conduct, having sought forgiveness for misreporting over humanitarian aid. Despite the Ministry of Information facilitating a meeting with VOD representatives, the broadcaster failed to apologize for misleading the public about the prime minister. News organizations cannot be allowed to publish unsubstantiated claims without accountability. The global community must put this issue in the proper context.

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China Says it Recently Detected US Spy Balloons

Facts

  • As US officials say the sudden increase in detected flying objects might be due to enhanced airspace scrutiny and radar operations by the Pentagon, China is reportedly currently monitoring an object flying over its own airspace over the water near the city of Rizhao.
  • China on Monday accused the US of flying high-altitude balloons over PRC airspace without permission at least 10 times since early last year. Wang Wenbin, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "It is nothing rare for U.S. balloons to illegally enter other countries’ airspace."
  • This comes after the US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon, as well as three additional unidentified flying objects of unknown origins in recent days. US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson called the accusation China's attempt at "damage control."
  • Wang didn't specify whether the balloons were for military or espionage purposes, but suggested that the US should re-evaluate and change its international behavior.
  • Watson added that China has violated "the sovereignty" of "over 40 countries across five continents." In the wake of the first balloon incident, US Sec. of State Antony Blinken canceled his planned trip to Beijing.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

China’s claims are an attempt at damage control after it failed to convince the world that the surveillance balloon was a weather balloon. As the world’s leading espionage actor, China won’t be able to easily cast the US as the antagonist in this situation.

Pro-China narrative

By using its advanced technology for spying — not just in China but on every continent — the US is the one saber-rattling and posing military risks, not China. The US should respect the sovereignty of all nations and put its technology to more peaceful, helpful uses.

Nerd narrative

There is a 19% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 355: Russia Claims Gains Along Ukraine Frontline

Facts

  • Elsewhere, after Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy said his country uncovered a Russian plan "for the destruction of Moldova" last week, Moldovan Pres. Maia Sandu on Monday accused Russia of planning to use foreign saboteurs to bring down her country’s leadership and prevent it from joining the EU. Sandu alleged the saboteurs were planning to spark protests in an attempt to "change the legitimate government to an illegal government controlled by the Russian Federation."
  • Meanwhile, following a rift between Ukraine and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) after a decision was made to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete in the 2024 Olympic Games, IOC Pres. Thomas Bach said that while he shared the "grief and human suffering" of Ukrainians, national governments should not decide who takes part in international sporting events.
  • Meanwhile, Ukraine's military made no mention of any Russian advances but reported heavy shelling along the frontline on Monday — including the Donetsk city of Bakhmut where fighting remains the heaviest.
  • One such attack was reported in the Kherson region, reportedly striking the production facilities of a local business and killing one civilian. Russian attacks in Kherson also damaged railway infrastructure in the region.
  • Russia's defense ministry said on Monday that its troops had managed to advance a few kilometers west in four days of fighting, without specifying where the advances were made. The claim couldn't be independently confirmed.
  • Ukrainian officials also reported that one civilian was killed and another was injured in the Donetsk region while a further civilian was recorded injured in the region of Kharkiv.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's inability to take the Donetsk city of Bakhmut is symbolic of its wider deficiencies that will prevent it from conducting further successful offensives in Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk. It's only a matter of time before they take the city of Bakhmut and the remainder of the Donetsk region.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Turkey Investigating Over 130 People Over Building Collapses

Facts

  • Critics of Turkish Pres. Erdoğan and his government have also adopted the view that local and state officials are to blame for the destruction. Turkey is holding parliamentary and presidential elections in May.
  • On Sunday, Turkish authorities announced that they would investigate 131 people who could potentially be held responsible for the collapse of buildings in Turkey's devastating earthquakes last week. Of the reported suspects, authorities said that they ordered the detention of 113.
  • The government has acknowledged that the initial response was hampered by the extensive damage, with the worst-affected area reportedly being 310 miles (500 km) in diameter and home to about 13.5M people.
  • The lawyer of one of the contractors who was arrested suggested that his client was being used as a scapegoat by the government. The government agency tasked with regulation enforcement reported in 2019 that over half of all buildings in Turkey were not in compliance with building codes.
  • Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay said on Sunday that “We will follow this up meticulously until the necessary judicial process is concluded, especially for buildings that suffered heavy damage and caused deaths and injuries," as investigators have been deployed to the 10 affected provinces.
  • Twelve people, including building contractors, have already been taken into custody as of Sunday night. With 33K dead in Turkey alone, the public is demanding answers as to why so many buildings collapsed as suspicions regarding building code violations continue to grow.

Spin

Narrative A

The Turkish government is doing everything that it can to hold corrupt developers, officials, and contractors accountable. For too long, contractors and building companies have cut corners, leading to thousands of deaths in this horrific tragedy. The government's investigation will be as thorough as possible, as the public deserves answers to why so much devastation has occurred.

Narrative B

Sadly, many impacts of this earthquake could have been lessened if only Erdoğan's government had dealt seriously with supervising urban development in quake-prone areas, enforcing the mandatory earthquake-resistant design codes to buildings its legislation approved in 2000. There are two major fault lines along the Anatolian Plate, and earthquake mitigation is vital given the likelihood of catastrophic tremors. Erdoğan's prospects for re-election seem to be dwindling as anger grows.

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BOE: Brexit Has Cost UK Economy $29B in Lost Investment

Facts

  • Bank of England (BoE) policy maker Jonathan Haskel said Monday that Brexit has cost the UK £29B ($35B US) — or £1K per household — in lost investment. The assessment came in an interview about Britain's position as an "extreme outlier" in terms of productivity.
  • Haskell conceded that part of the slowdown in productivity is due to the UK's "large financial sector," but highlighted that there was still a "big boom" in investment "between 2012-ish to 2016," followed by a significant plateau.
  • He also noted that the UK faces a significant rise in the number of "inactive" people in the labor market, with a greater rise in inactivity levels only having been recorded in Colombia, Chile, Switzerland, and Iceland.
  • The BoE is currently facing rampant inflation and has raised interest rates ten consecutive times since late 2021, reaching 4% this February. Haskel has been more hawkish than some of his colleagues on the MPC, having stated last week that the bank should "guard very vigilantly against really bad outcomes."
  • The external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said that investment had been "stopped in its tracks" by the 2016 vote, resulting in a "productivity penalty" that has significantly affected the UK in comparison with remaining EU nations.
  • UK-based publication The Observer has noted that reports concerning the loss — which equates to about 1.3% of GDP — is timely, as it comes amid revelations that a cross-party summit has been held in the UK to address the shortcomings of Brexit.

Spin

Left narrative

Everyone knew Brexit would be a disaster — this is only the latest account to prove it. PM Rishi Sunak should show the same humility and courage as conservative MP and Brexiteer Michael Gove who, despite his hardline support for the UK's exit from the EU, attended the recent meeting to assess Brexit's failures. As the UK economy shrinks and the Northern Ireland trade war worsens, it's central to the national interest that the PM compromises with the EU, even if it means defying his pro-Brexit allies in the process.

Right narrative

Haskel's economic commentary is simply an interpretation of the data motivated by political agenda. The modeling relies on a prediction of what the economy would have looked like had the UK not left the EU, meaning it's built on a foundation of supposition that undermines its conclusions. Haskel has also failed to factor the recession of 2010 into his analysis, or the effect of the pandemic. This modeling lives solely in Haskel's biased mind, and Britons shouldn't believe that they'd all have an extra £1K to spend if they hadn't left the EU.

Cynical narrative

British politicians need to stop kicking Brexit around like a political football. The majority supported leaving the EU not due to the economic arguments, but because they believed it would reinvigorate the UK's democracy. In order to establish Britain as a nation free from the EU's tight grip, politicians must turn away from partisanship and ask more seminal questions concerning the reconciliation of alleviating poverty while incentivizing self-improvement. The upholding of national sovereignty is at stake and Westminster must do more to achieve this goal.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the UK will apply to rejoin the EU by August, 2049, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Govt: Americans in Russia Should Leave 'Immediately'

Facts

  • Ahead of Russia's reported upcoming new round of military mobilization, the US Embassy is urging Americans in Russia to leave immediately — citing an elevated risk of arbitrary enforcement of local laws and harassment, and the possibility of being conscripted to fight in the war against Ukraine.
  • In announcing the government's "severely limited" ability to help American citizens in Russia, those who choose to stay or who have not yet planned a way to leave have been advised to keep a low profile and avoid controversial locations.
  • In response to the State Dept. advisory, the Kremlin on Monday dismissed US warnings, pointing to similar announcements made in September which also came shortly after Putin called on more Russians to join the ranks in Ukraine.
  • The State Dept. added that Russia has already "arrested US citizens on spurious charges, singled out US citizens...for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials."
  • The travel advisory, which has remained at the highest level of "do not travel" since October, was updated Sunday to "depart immediately," and that Moscow might "refuse to acknowledge dual nationals' U.S. citizenship," "their access to U.S. consular assistance," "prevent their departure from Russia, "and/or conscript them."
  • US authorities warn that it may get increasingly difficult for Americans to leave Russia, as US credit and debit cards continue to not work in the country and the US government's ability to help becomes "severely limited."

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

The situation in Russia has been dangerous for a while and will likely continue to worsen as the country prepares for a second mobilization of troops to fight in Ukraine. Americans have been told to leave Russia for several months now, and if they choose not to leave, there is very little the US government can do to help them.

Pro-Russia narrative

These warnings that Russia "may do this" and "may do that" are nothing new, and the US government's inability to help its citizens leave is due to its own budgetary cutbacks. The fearmongering over banking issues is also not new, as they are the result of economic sanctions similar to those imposed on Moscow by the West. As was the case months ago, these are empty fear tactics with no evidence behind them.

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Georgia Judge Orders Partial Release of Trump Grand Jury Report

Facts

  • A partial report from a Georgia special grand jury investigating efforts by former Pres. Trump and his colleagues to overturn his 2020 election loss will be released later this week on orders from Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney.
  • The judge’s order, which comes three weeks after a hearing that featured prosecutors trying to keep the report secret — and media organizations requesting its release — will keep secret any recommendations about who should or should not be prosecuted by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to protect due process.
  • The report’s introduction, conclusion, and a portion regarding worries from the jurors that witnesses had lied under oath, will become public Thursday.
  • Willis convened the special grand jury, which lacked the power to issue indictments, to probe whether Trump and others acted to “disrupt the lawful administration of the 2020 elections in the State of Georgia and to prepare a report on whether anyone should be prosecuted for such potential crimes.”
  • Willis’ probe was sparked by revelations about a January 2021 phone call Trump made to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger asking him to “find” more votes that would make Trump the winner. The investigation has expanded to include claims Trump has made about election fraud, and the alleged plot to send fake electors to Washington, DC.
  • With full subpoena power, the 23-member special grand jury heard from dozens of witnesses between June and December 2022, including Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Enough is enough. Willis convened this special grand jury nine months ago, and she can’t keep dragging the former president through this without revealing what she does or doesn’t have on him. There was nothing wrong with Trump’s initial call to Raffensperger, and if the special grand jury has something else on Trump or anyone from his inner circle, it’s time to make it public.

Democratic narrative

The judge is striking just the right balance by protecting most of Willis’ potential prosecutions while revealing that, at the very least, many in Trump’s inner circle might’ve lied under oath — which is a crime. Those pushing for a full release of the report will find out in due time how Trump, and those around him, acted criminally to stop the lawful passing of the presidency.

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