10 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

South Africa Declares 'State of Disaster' Over Energy Crisis

Facts

  • South African Pres. Ramaphosa on Thursday announced a national "state of disaster“ over the country’s severe energy crisis in his annual State of the Nation address to parliament.
  • Noting that the power outages, which have struck Africa's most industrialized economy on a daily basis since 2023, pose an "existential threat" to the country's economy and social cohesion, Ramaphosa said the emergency measure will take immediate effect.
  • He stated that the legislation will feature measures to safeguard critical infrastructure, as well as to speed up energy projects and the roll-out of generators and solar panels while limiting regulatory requirements.
  • This comes as state-owned power company Eskom continues the worst rolling blackouts in the country's history, affecting households and all sectors of the economy. The energy crisis is expected to cut South Africa's economic growth to 0.3% in 2023.
  • Meanwhile, the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, announced it would challenge the government's emergency measure in court. The party cited alleged abuse of power during disaster legislation in response to the COVID pandemic.
  • Analysts indicate that years of underinvestment in maintaining outdated coal-fired power plants have forced Eskom to step up power cuts in order to keep the country's electricity grid from completely collapsing. South Africa relies on coal for 80 percent of its energy requirements.

Spin

Narrative A

The dire energy crisis is homegrown, but part of the problem is that South Africa has a growing demand for energy while leading the industrialized world in coal consumption. That's why the government is boldly embracing a plan to switch to renewable energy without sacrificing economic growth. If the transition succeeds — and South Africa receives billions in support — it could boost the economy and make the country a model for coal-dependent countries.

Narrative B

It is unlikely that declaring a state of disaster will change the country's dire energy crisis anytime soon. The measure will not turn an incompetent government into a competent one and will instead lead to less accountability but more corruption. The extreme measure is primarily an expression of desperation, as evidenced by the government's intention to appoint a Minister of Electricity to deal with the crisis. South Africa faces a bleak and shaky future.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least a 3.34% share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Issues Sanctions Relief for Syria Earthquake Aid

Facts

  • On Thursday, the US Dept. of the Treasury authorized financial transactions to Syria for 180 days following the devastating earthquake that rocked southern Turkey and northern Syria on Monday. "Syria General License 23" authorizes transactions that would otherwise be prohibited by the Syrian Sanctions Regulations.
  • Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said, "US sanctions in Syria will not stand in the way of life-saving efforts for the Syrian people." However, he also stated that there had already been "robust exemptions for humanitarian efforts."
  • UN chief Antonio Guterres has called for more funds to be allocated to disaster relief in Turkey and Syria and to widen access for aid to reach the earthquake-stricken parts of Syria. He also claimed that “no sanctions of any kind interfere with relief to the population of Syria in the present."
  • Organizations like the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said that US sanctions on Syria have raised prices and hampered humanitarian operations.
  • Syria and the US have had a tense relationship for decades, as the US first designated Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism in 1979. It then placed sanctions on Syria in 2004 following its then-military occupation of Lebanon.
  • In more recent years, the US has placed sanctions on the Syrian government following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. In 2019, the US adopted the so-called Caesar Act, which is the toughest set of sanctions the US had placed on Syria to date.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Though the US has lifted some sanctions, this is largely a superficial move to avoid criticism of its brutal sanctions regime. If sanctions weren't obstructing aid delivery, why did the US lift some of them? All routes from Turkey into the country's north have been destroyed, making it even more necessary for Western governments to work directly with the Syrian state to help alleviate this crisis. The West must lift all of these cruel sanctions.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US should not and will not work with a government that has killed hundreds of thousands of its own people with barrel bombs, starvation sieges, and chemical weapons. US sanctions on Syria have a very minor effect on aid delivery, as such areas are excluded from the sanctions which largely target individuals and companies, and any possible hindrances have now been lifted. The US will do everything it can via the NGOs with which it has worked for years to provide Syrians with aid, but it will not assist Bashar al-Assad, Syria's dictator after he destroyed his own country.

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Poland Closes Belarus Border Checkpoint

Facts

  • Poland's Interior Ministry on Thursday announced the indefinite closure of the main Bobrowniki-Bierestowica border checkpoint with Belarus starting on Friday at noon, reportedly leaving only two crossing points open along the whole border.
  • Warsaw also stated that it's considering imposing further sanctions against Belarusian officials allegedly responsible for crackdowns on Poles in the neighboring country.
  • This comes as an eight-year prison sentence given on Wednesday to Polish activist and journalist Andrzej Poczobut on charges of inciting hatred and threatening national security, which Poland claims to be politically motivated.
  • These moves bring tensions between the two countries to a new height, with Belarusian officials arguing that the border decision was irrational and dangerous and designed to "further aggravate the situation at the border."
  • Poland has provided sanctuary for opponents of Belarus Pres. Alexander Lukashenko, and Warsaw has become one of Ukraine's fiercest supporters in its war with Belarus' main ally Russia.
  • Following World War II, the borders in the area were redrawn, and land that used to be Polish territory became part of Belarus. As a result, thousands of ethnic Poles now live in the western region of the country.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The Lukashenko regime is cracking down on the dissent ripping through Belarus, and the conviction of Andrzej Poczobut — only guilty of fighting for the truth — is just one demonstration of this. More than 35K people have been arrested, many have been beaten, and tens of thousands of others have fled in fear for their lives. Poland, and the West, can't stand by idly amid this repression.

Establishment-critical narrative

Ripple effects from the Western-sponsored migration crisis are fueling unrest in Belarus, and the closure of the Bobrowniki-Bierestowica border will only worsen this. In an attempt to thrust its vision of democracy on other nations, the West, particularly the US, has instigated a succession of regional conflicts in the Middle East and Northern Africa, resulting in massive migration flows. Rather than imposing further sanctions, constructive dialogue — as advocated for by Minsk — is the way forward.

Narrative C

Poland — which touts an open-door policy to Ukrainian refugees — has a history of unlawfully and violently throwing Belarusian migrants back across the border into the hands of an oppressive and cruel regime. This inhumane policy has exacerbated the migrant crisis at the border and is unacceptable for an EU country.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Pres. Lukashenko will leave power in Belarus by December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 352: Ukraine Says Russian Missiles Crossed into Romanian, Moldovan Airspace

Facts

  • Commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said on Friday that two Russian missiles launched from the Black Sea had crossed into Romanian and Moldovan airspace before landing in Ukraine. The claim could not be verified and Russia has so far failed to comment on the allegation.
  • The Romanian Defense Ministry, however, contradicted the account, saying that "an aerial target ... most likely a cruise missile" had flown through Ukrainian airspace, crossed into Molvoda, and then re-entered Ukrainian airspace without flying over Romania. In contrast, Moldova confirmed that its airspace had been violated, with the nation's foreign minister ordering "the urgent summoning" of Russia's ambassador in Chisinau.
  • Meanwhile, in Kyiv, residents were forced to take shelter from a barrage of attacks on Friday. Ukraine's air force stated it had intercepted 61 of 71 missiles fired overnight, but added that Russian strikes had hit "cities and critical infrastructure facilities." Reportedly, "up to 35 anti-aircraft guided missiles" also hit the regions of Kharkiv in the east and Zaporizhzhia in the south.
  • Acting mayor for Zaporizhzhia, Anatolii Kurtiev, stated via Telegram that at least 17 missiles had hit the area in a single hour on Friday morning, while Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Synehybov said that "about 10 explosions" had occurred in the region as a result of Russian shelling and some areas were facing power cuts; no reports of casualties had been reported.
  • Elsewhere, reports emerged on Thursday that Russia is preparing for a "huge invasion" in the Donbas region of Ukraine to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion on Feb. 24. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, nearly 2K tanks and 300K soldiers have been prepared for a renewed offensive aimed at seizing the eastern Ukrainian region. The Kremlin last month appointed General Valery Gerasimov as the commander of Moscow's forces — he is reportedly expected to focus on capturing the Donbas, along with Donetsk and Luhansk.
  • In Europe, amid ongoing pressure from Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy for EU leaders to intensify weapons packages for Kyiv, French Pres. Macron said he would not rule out sending fighter jets to Ukraine. "I have heard it from a number of European leaders," Zelenskyy told reporters on Thursday, "about the readiness to give us the necessary weapons and support, including the aircraft."

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Australian Study: Lung Protein May Prevent COVID

Facts

  • According to a University of Sydney study published in the journal PLOS Biology on Friday, a protein produced in the lungs called LRRC15 can stick to the COVID virus to form a natural protective barrier to block infection, which could explain why different people suffer from different severities of the disease, or not at all.
  • The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID infects humans by using a spike protein that binds to the human ACE2 receptor, of which lung cells have a high level, thus resulting in severe harm to the organ. LRRC15 is like ACE2 in that SARS-CoV-2 can bind to it, however, unlike ACE2, it immobilizes the virus once attached.
  • LRRC15 isn't present in humans before infection, and appears to be part of the body's immune response to COVID. It is also produced in the tongue, skin, fibroblasts, placenta, and lymph nodes after infection, but researchers specifically found the protein lit up in the lungs.
  • While LRRC15 was found in patients who had died of COVID, the researchers speculate that it was in insufficient quantities, or was produced too late. Comparing to the amount present in patients who recovered is difficult as a lung biopsy is required. A separate London study, however, found elevated LRRC15 in the blood samples of patients with mild COVID compared to those with a severe infection.
  • The researchers, led by University of Sydney functional genomics professor Greg Neely, found LRRC15 using a genetic engineering tool called CRISPR to analyze human tissue cell culture and search the entire human genome for COVID-binding proteins.
  • In a statement, the University said the study "opens up an entirely new area of immunology research," adding that it "offers a promising pathway to develop new drugs" for preventing "infection from coronaviruses" or "fibrosis in the lungs."

Spin

Narrative A

Though there's still research to be done, this study has discovered a novel virus-binding protein that could help create future treatment strategies. Not only can LRRC15 capture and immobilize COVID in human airways, but it can possibly even help fibroblast cells pass these immobilized cells onto the lung for further protection. This is an exciting breakthrough.

Narrative B

This is undoubtedly promising news, but it's tainted by its late arrival. Although the vaccine has helped protect millions, it consumed researchers' energy and resources, resulting in research like this — which should have taken place when the pandemic began — being neglected. Doctors should learn this lesson and spread out their resources should another viral outbreak ever occur again.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 18 named variants of SARS-CoV-2 in its first 10 years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

READ FULL STORY

Reports: Pence Subpoenaed by Special Counsel

Facts

  • Former Vice President Mike Pence has reportedly been subpoenaed by Jack Smith, the special counsel overseeing a criminal investigation into former Pres. Trump’s attempts to overturn his loss in the 2020 presidential election. Smith is also overseeing the investigation into Trump’s handling of classified documents.
  • As the two-years-long Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation continues, Smith’s office is seeking documents and testimony from Pence about his interactions with Trump before and during the day of the Jan 6. Capitol riots.
  • Pence, who still could cause a lengthy court battle by claiming that executive privilege precludes him from testifying, previously declined to testify as part of the recently concluded House committee investigation of the riots. He is the highest-level person the DOJ has subpoenaed so far.
  • Pence’s recently published memoir detailed many of his interactions with Trump. Of the Capitol riots, Pence wrote, the seat of democracy was “desecrated” by millions of supporters of the administration that day.
  • Trump cast Pence as a central figure in plans to ignore the results of the 2020 election. In a Jan. 6, 2021 speech, Trump said he hoped “Mike is going to do the right thing” and not certify the results.
  • In December 2022, Smith subpoenaed local officials, including ones in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona, for official communications they had with Trump.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Few people can bring the perspective about the Capitol riots that Pence can, considering he was both pressured by Trump to not certify the votes and hunted down by the rioters. The former VP has already shared his story and opinions in public appearances, so giving an honest account to law enforcement shouldn’t be an issue. He should ignore any executive privilege claims and do what’s best for America.

Pro-Trump narrative

Pence should take his cue from Trump, who has pointed out that Smith is a politically-motivated prosecutor who is running an illegitimate investigation. Smith has botched prosecutions in the past — both domestically and overseas — and there’s no way anyone, let alone the former vice president, should tell Smith anything.

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House GOP Requests Documents in Biden Family Probe

Facts

  • House Republicans, via the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, have made the first official requests for documents from Hunter and James Biden — the family of the US President — concerning foreign business dealings, specifically related to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
  • House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) alleged that the committee had evidence that Biden family members attempted to "sell access around the world" including to members of the CCP, to "enrich themselves" to the detriment of the US.
  • In addition to sending letters to Pres. Joe Biden's son and brother, a letter was also sent to Hunter Biden's business associate Eric Schwerin. The committee chairman has asked for the requested information to be provided by Feb. 22.
  • Comer has asked the individuals to provide any records "designated classified" as well as communications between the president, his wife, and Hunter Biden concerning travel and finance over an 11-year period beginning Jan. 20, 2009. Comer has revealed he will consider subpoenas if the February deadline is not met.
  • Hunter Biden's lawyer, Abbe Lowell, called the committee's request "inaccurate" for pursuing a private citizen, accusing the committee of "peddling" their own "baseless" conclusions under the auspices of a real investigation. Pres. Biden has also dismissed the inquiry, claiming that making up family allegations will not go "very far."
  • The committee request is part of a wide-ranging investigation by Republicans into the President and his son concerning Hunter Biden's business deals in Ukraine and China.

Spin

Republican narrative

News surrounding Hunter Biden's laptop has continually been the source of desperate lies by Democrats, attempting to brush over the actions of the Biden family. Despite their best attempts, the stage has now been set by Comer for Republicans to finally force the truth out of the Biden family and the Biden administration.

Democratic narrative

It is hypocritical for Comer to investigate and complain about the Biden family when he himself has used his position in the past to help his brother out of COVID Paycheck Protection Program loans. Rather than spending all its time on politically-motivated character assassination, the GOP machine would do better to address more important issues of value to the American people.

Nerd narrative

There is a 37% chance that Hunter Biden will be indicted by Nov. 5, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

READ FULL STORY

Qatargate: Belgian MEP Arrested Over Corruption Allegations

Facts

  • Another Member of the European Parliament (MEP), Marc Tarabella of Belgium, was arrested on Friday as part of an investigation into alleged parliamentary money laundering, bribery, and corruption. The news follows former EP vice-president Eva Kaili's arrest in December.
  • Tarabella was arrested early in the morning, and will go before a judge within the next 48 hours, who will decide whether he will remain in detention. MEPs typically enjoy immunity from detention and legal proceedings, but the EP last week voted to strip him of his privileges.
  • The development is the latest in a years-long probe into whether MEPs accepted bribes from Morocco and Qatar. Tarabella reportedly stands accused of supporting "certain positions within the European Parliament in favor of a third state" in exchange for up to €140K ($153K).
  • Tarabella has been a socialist party MEP since 2004, during which time he has sat on several committees including the delegation for relations with the Arab Peninsula, of which Qatar is a part. He has defended Qatar's labor rights, voted in favor of visa waivers for Qatari and Kuwaiti citizens, and failed to disclose a 2020 working trip he made to Qatar.
  • Though no charges have yet been announced, the Belgian prosecutor said that multiple raids had occurred, including a search of a safe deposit box at Tarabella's bank in Liège and multiple offices in the town of Anthisnes, where he is still mayor.
  • Eva Kaili, her partner Francesco Giorgi, and former MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri are still in prison in relation to alleged corruption. Last week, the judge released Sec. General of the NGO No Peace Without Justice Niccolò Figà-Talamanca. Police have also searched the house of MEP Cozzolino, whose office was sealed but not searched.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The European Parliament prides itself on being above corruption, which is why the vast majority of MEPs — who are not involved in this case — have called for swift and concrete measures to be implemented in response to these bribery allegations. Radical actions, such as the criminalization of all corruption through the "defense of democracy package," are set to be imposed to quash the behavior of this rogue minority.

Establishment-critical narrative

The irony of these so-called socialist European MEPs engaging in bribery and fraud is incredible, and the few arrests made so far may only be the tip of the iceberg in the European Parliament. Up to 60 MEPs could potentially be involved — those outside of this chaos should watch this space and note the display of hypocrisy as it unfolds.

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Two Killed in Jerusalem Car Ramming Attack

Facts

  • According to Israeli police, a man plowed his car into a crowded bus stop in Jerusalem on Friday, killing two people, including a six-year-old boy, and injuring five others in what is being called a "ramming terror attack."
  • Police reportedly shot and killed the suspect at the scene. The second casualty was identified as a man in his 20s, while those injured ranged from eight to 40 years old and are in moderate to severe condition. Police say people were waiting at the bus stop in the Jewish settlement of Ramot in east Jerusalem when the attack occurred.
  • Police say the attacker was 31-year-old Hussein Qaraqa, an Israeli citizen residing in the East Jerusalem Palestinian neighborhood of Issawiya, adding that he was mentally ill. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas terror groups didn't claim the attack despite praising it as "heroic."
  • Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu ordered security forces to crack down on possible accomplices to the attack, directing units in the area to be reinforced while also ordering that the suspect’s home be demolished.
  • This is the latest in a series of deadly incidents amid escalating tensions between Israel and Palestine. On Jan. 27, a Palestinian shooting attack killed seven people outside a synagogue in Jerusalem's deadliest attack in over a decade.
  • Meanwhile, last month, 10 Palestinians, including two civilians, were killed in an Israeli raid in the West Bank city of Jenin; five Palestinian militants were also killed in a battle with Israeli troops earlier this week. So far this year, at least 39 Palestinians have reportedly been killed by Israeli forces, while at least eight Israelis have died in Palestinian attacks.

Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

This latest attack by a Palestinian extremist, brutally killing an innocent six-year-old boy, illustrates why Israel needs to enhance its efforts to root out terrorism and protect the Israeli people. As tough as his policies are, security minister Ben Gvir has seen many Israelis die on his watch, and it's time he strengthens enforcement. This conflict is not subsiding, and Israel is obligated to defend itself.

Pro-Palestine narrative

All violence is tragic and must be condemned, but people must not forget the violence and oppression first imposed by Israel’s apartheid regime. Palestinians are being abused, dispossessed, and even killed every day, and something must be done to dismantle the occupation of the West Bank. As governments and international organizations increasingly speak out against Israel, they must not cower in the face of public backlash and lobbying efforts.

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Florida Passes Bill to Relocate Undocumented Immigrants

Facts

  • The Florida state legislature passed a bill Friday that sets aside $10M to hire contractors to pick up undocumented immigrants from anywhere in the country and transport them elsewhere. The bill passed the House two days after the Senate and now heads to Gov. Ron DeSantis for his signature.
  • The legislation — passed along party lines in both chambers — formalizes the Unauthorized Alien Transport Program enacted by DeSantis last year that enabled government officials to fly migrants to blue states that have sanctuary policies.
  • This follows DeSantis' decision in September to relocate almost 50 Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Mass., after which the governor faced legal challenges alleging he violated Florida law by relocating them from outside the state.
  • To avoid further legal battles, the bill — titled SB-6B and which passed 77-34 in the House — specifically authorizes the government to relocate migrants from other states and will only ship those who voluntarily agree to go to sanctuary cities and states.
  • This comes just weeks after hundreds of Haitian and Cuban migrants landed in Florida, many by way of handmade boats.
  • The bill came alongside two other legislative proposals, including one to strip Disney of its self-governing status and another that strengthens prosecutions tied to the state’s election police unit.

Spin

Democratic narrative

These migrants are poor, homeless, and hungry refugees, not so-called illegal aliens, and DeSantis is using them to gain traction ahead of his potential presidential run. The governor and his GOP allies are outright admitting that this is a political stunt, which makes it all the worse. If signed, DeSantis' human trafficking policy will continue to target people based on race and national origin — constitutional violations that have already been brought up in previous lawsuits.

Republican narrative

Florida Republicans and their governor are using this as a national political stunt, but it's not to boost DeSantis' presidential bid. Florida and other border states have been left with no other choice as the Biden admin. ignores the country's illegal immigration crisis. This is the only way to make Democrats up north aware of this fact, and as long as their concerns keep falling on deaf ears, state governments are going to have to keep shipping the problem to their doorstep.

Conservative narrative

Though these migrant flights are understandable, governors like DeSantis in Florida and Greg Abbott in Texas shouldn't be pushing illegals further into the country; they should be deporting them. As Kari Lake promised to do if she became governor of Arizona, they should correctly categorize this crisis as an invasion and deport each undocumented immigrant back to where they came from.

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