09 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

North Korea Displays Possible New Missile at Military Parade

Facts

  • Experts speculate that some of North Korea's ICBMs may be mockups, while others could be solid-fuel rockets. According to nuclear policy expert Ankit Panda, solid-fuel rockets are more responsive than their liquid-fuel counterparts and can be launched more quickly, making them more difficult to spot with satellites.
  • North Korea displayed as many as 11 new Hwasong-17 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) during a night-time parade in Pyongyang on Wednesday, state media reported. The new ICBMs have the potential of reaching the continental United States.
  • North Korea has continued to develop its ballistic missile program despite UN Security Council resolutions and sanctions. Last year Pyongyang test-launched dozens of advanced missiles.
  • North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, presided over the parade — accompanied by his young daughter, Kim Ju Ae — as it marked the 75th founding anniversary of the country's army and emphasized its ability to face down its enemies "nuke for nuke, confrontation for confrontation," as characterized by official state media.
  • The North Korean parade showcased more intercontinental ballistic missiles than ever before. The ICBMs could reportedly represent enough volume to overwhelm US ballistic missile defenses if each missile were equipped with multiple nuclear warheads.

Spin

Narrative A

Pyongyang is sending a message to the world that it has nuclear capabilities to deter and coerce. This was evident in Wednesday night's military parade, which featured ICBMs capable of striking the US mainland, as well as a variety of other nuclear-capable weapons. The new ICBMs support North Korea's policy of power-to-power, all-out confrontation against its enemies.

Narrative B

This show of force is actually about Kim Jong Un ensuring the continuity of his family's dynasty. Kim's daughter was prominent in the parade, which telegraphs an intention to maintain the survivability of his family's command of the nation if conflict were to occur.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that there will be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 351: Zelenskyy Addresses EU Summit, Fighting Rages Around Bakhmut

Facts

  • Elsewhere, SpaceX's president Gwynne Shotwell said on Wednesday that the company, which has provided Ukraine's military with broadband communications, is seeking to prevent Ukraine from using the Starlink satellite internet service for drone operations in the country.
  • In his address, Zelenskyy said that a victory for Ukraine would be a victory for European values. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, also posted a photo of himself and Pres. Zelenskyy with the caption: “Welcome home, welcome to the EU" via Twitter.
  • In other news, Ukraine has denounced Roger Waters — a lead member of Pink Floyd — following his speech at the UN Security Council at Russia’s invitation. Waters said that Russia's actions regarding Ukraine were illegal, but he added that the nation was provoked and said he condemned the provocateurs.
  • Meanwhile, Russian officials have called Zelenskyy "pompous" and "hypocritical" for traveling through Europe to rally support for Ukraine. UK PM Rishi Sunak said "nothing is off the table" regarding assistance to the war effort in Ukraine, adding that fighter jets "are part of the conversation."
  • On Thursday, during a summit of EU leaders, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked European countries for helping Ukraine while urging them to send more weapons to help Kyiv's forces. It came as the Kremlin responded to Zelenskyy's visit to the UK that took place the previous day, stating Ukraine would suffer if Western nations sent it fighter jets.
  • Zelenskyy's visit comes as fighting has intensified in the country's east, particularly around the city of Bakhmut. Russian forces are slowly making progress around Bakhmut and are reportedly preparing for a new offensive across the east — Ukraine has said it will not give up the city.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Church of England Approves Same-Sex Union Blessings

Facts

  • By a vote of 250-181 on Thursday, the General Synod — the legislative body of the Church of England — voted to allow blessings of same-sex marriages and unions, though priests will be allowed to opt-out.
  • Church law currently states that marriage can only be between one man and one woman. Six lawyers who sit on the synod warned that clergy could be exposed to the "risk of litigation," advising the blessings be given so long as they don't equate "civil marriage" to "holy matrimony."
  • The approval also includes an apology to LGBTQ+ people, and a review of the ban on clergy entering into same-sex civil marriages and the celibacy rule for clergy in same-sex relationships.
  • The blessings are expected to start later this year after guidance is issued.
  • The debate was procedurally complex, with over two dozen amendments to the motion, including one proposal for marriage equality to be put before the synod within two years that lost by a vote of 52% to 45%.
  • To get the vote passed, the Bishop of London — the Rt. Rev. Sarah Mullally — agreed to an amendment stating that there will be no change in official Church doctrine regarding marriage.

Spin

Progressive narrative

While Britons can certainly take the small win here, the Church of England is still holding on to old beliefs that the majority of Anglicans don't agree with anymore. Within the Church, as is already the case in secular society, there is plenty of room for differing views on sexuality and marriage. Hopefully, this is only the first step toward the Church finally approving same-sex marriage and thus fulfilling the demands of inclusivity preached by God and the British government.

Conservative narrative

This is the result of the decades-long secularist movement to overtake religious institutions as our moral leaders. Most of the world for most of its history understood marriage as a permanent sacrament between men and women who, regardless of their personal or emotional qualms, were unified in the goal of raising children. Though progressives will counter with anecdotal what-about-isms, this fundamental human purpose can only occur between the two sexes. While blessing unions is one thing, approving same-sex marriages would be an attack on fundamental Church doctrine.

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Survey: Half of Americans Worse Off Than Year Ago

Facts

  • Despite this, 60% of people revealed that they expected to be better off financially a year from now, while only 28% expected to be worse off.
  • In a new Gallup survey, 50% of Americans have claimed that they are financially worse off now than they were the previous year — the highest percentage since the Great Recession over a decade ago.
  • The latest results are based on answers received between Jan. 2 - Jan. 22, with 35% of Americans stating they are better off than they were a year ago, compared to an even split between the two choices in the two years prior, with 41%-41% in 2022.
  • This comes after Biden asserted his desire to build the economy "from the bottom up and the middle out" rather than the top down at his second State of the Union (SOTU) address Tuesday, also noting record-low unemployment, job growth, and inflationary decline but that there is still work to be done.
  • When split up by income, 61% of respondents from lower-income groups said that their financial situation had worsened over the past year, compared with 49% from middle-income groups and 43% from upper-income groups.

Spin

Republican narrative

Biden is blaming inflation on the pandemic rather than his reactionary policies to it, and many of his comments at the SOTU highlight the real danger of his administration's attempts to arbitrarily control the markets rather than support them. Such a strategy has historically only taken power away from the average worker and destroyed nations — under Biden, the US economy looks likely to continue to suffer.

Democratic narrative

Americans' economic woes aren't unfounded, but it's Biden's agenda that's keeping hope alive. In a U-turn from years past, the president is calling out corporate corruption and tax evasion while highlighting the importance of a strong working class. Even Republicans, albeit grudgingly, applauded some of the president's speech, which — along with the poll's optimism surrounding the economy's future — shows the American people are willing to latch onto the hopeful message Biden has for the country.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that the US will enter a recession before the end of 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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EU Warns Twitter Over 'Incomplete' Content-Moderation Report

Facts

  • Failing to fully comply with the Code could put Twitter in trouble with regulators as a wide range of content moderation rules is set to be implemented by Sept. 1 in the EU's upcoming Digital Services Act. Companies could face fines of up to 6% of their annual revenues or even a ban if they breach the Act.
  • The EU published in November an evaluation made before Musk took over the company that found Twitter took longer to address hateful content in 2022 compared to 2021.
  • The European Commission on Thursday admonished Twitter for allegedly not being seriously committed to tackling disinformation as the company has reportedly lagged behind other tech giants in the last six months.
  • The report was issued as part of the 2022 Code of Practice on Disinformation — a set of regulatory standards based on guidelines set out by the European Commission that Twitter and more than 30 other companies voluntarily agreed to follow.
  • This comes as EU officials asserted that the Elon Musk-owned firm submitted to the EU an incomplete report about how it is fighting intentionally false and misleading information posted on the platform.
  • Twitter was allegedly the only tech company that failed to provide information about its plan to cooperate with fact-checkers as well as the required data on how they tackle falsehoods and foreign interference on their platforms.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The EU has been taking decisive action to curb online hate speech and the spread of misinformation and extremism, with the regulatory Digital Services Act coming into effect next year to enforce social media platforms to protect people's life and safety. As the Internet is no longer a lawless land, Musk-owned Twitter could face fines and even a ban if goes down a shaky path.

Establishment-critical narrative

Most European countries have never genuinely valued free speech. Yet, Brussels is taking this attitude to a new level by imposing a radical censorship mechanism intended to force social media companies — especially Twitter — to follow an imposed ideological content-moderation policy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 44% chance that Twitter's net income will be higher in 2023 than in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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India Urges Citizens to 'Hug a Cow' on Valentine's Day

Facts

  • As India's economy has liberalized over the past decade, young people have increasingly celebrated Valentine's Day, Feb. 14, through romantic gestures like giving flowers, teddy bears, and heart-shaped gifts.
  • Due to the "progress of 'West' culture over time," the Board says Hindu traditions are "almost on the verge of extinction." However, the board added that "it's just an appeal to cow lovers" and that it hasn't "planned any special event around it."
  • The Board also emphasized that the policy has been approved by India's multiple animal welfare departments. It also follows the state of Haryana's Chief Minister's directive last year to have "at least one hospital in each district of the state for timely treatment and care of stray cows injured in road accidents."
  • The cow is a highly polarising and political animal in India. Considered a sacred animal in Hinduism, cow slaughter is banned in most Indian states, leading to frequent clashes erupting between Muslims and Hindus.
  • The government-run Animal Welfare Board of India is encouraging citizens to mark Valentine's Day as "Cow Hug Day" to promote Hindu values, saying on Wednesday that it will "bring emotional richness and increase individual and collective happiness."

Spin

Narrative A

India's democratic boom over the last decade is rapidly distancing from the multicultural and multiethnic foundation it was built upon. The beauty of India since its independence from the UK was that it allowed Hindu, Muslim, and secular beliefs to flourish side-by-side. The nation's constitution was written with those values in mind, but the current regime has sadly used its popularity to go directly against the founders' wishes.

Narrative B

Cows are the backbone of India's majority-Hindu tradition, which is under attack as Western influence grows. This innocent initiative is a light-hearted way of reminding the population of that fact and honoring Vedic traditions, all while bringing emotional and mental health benefits to those who partake.

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Disney to Lay Off 7k Employees

Facts

  • According to the company, it earned a better-than-expected $1.28B (70¢ per share) in the last three months of 2022, compared to $1.1B (60¢ per share) a year earlier.
  • Disney will now be organized into three company units: Disney Entertainment, encompassing its streaming platforms and film studios; ESPN for sports coverage; and Parks, Experiences, and Products.
  • Iger also announced that executives in the entertainment unit will be responsible for picking which movie and TV projects to produce, as well as marketing and distribution.
  • On Wednesday, Walt Disney Co. announced plans for 7k layoffs – representing a 3.6% reduction in its global workforce – and a broad restructuring of the company in the aftermath of the release of its first quarterly results since the reinstatement of CEO Bob Iger.
  • The company is looking to save $5.5B by undergoing what Iger, who returned as CEO in November after two years away, called a “significant transformation.” One of Disney’s main focus areas will be making its streaming business profitable.
  • The Disney+ streaming service, which started in 2019, lost subscribers for the first time last quarter, dropping from 2.4M subscribers to 161.8M. It also recorded a $1.5B loss.

Spin

Republican narrative

It shouldn't be surprising that Disney is suffering, considering all the bad press it earned last year. Iger took over a company that fought and lost a culture war against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and has made its name synonymous with “woke” content. Disney used to be old-fashioned fun for the whole family, but now most average Americans are steering clear of the brand and its sinister agenda.

Democratic narrative

Disney was predicated on being a morally instructive company and has long been esteemed as a model for a healthy civic society. Its recent so-called shift in content is merely a reflection of the nation's progressing culture, and GOP's accusation of woke nonsense attests to its inability to keep up with the mainstream.

Narrative C

Although Disney+ Hotstar took a hit in Southeast Asia because of the loss of Indian Premier League streaming rights, subscriber growth has been promising in the US and Canada. Streaming services are all facing stiff competition and are trying to find ways to stop finicky users from canceling and returning month to month. Disney+’s new, cheaper ad-based tier – in addition to its wide-ranging content – could help it grow toward the desired profits.

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DR Congo: Eight Civilians Dead in Clashes With UN Convoy

Facts

  • Anti-UN sentiment has risen in DRC since the M23 staged a brutal offensive last year that has displaced hundreds of thousands and killed dozens. Uprooted civilians are reportedly claiming MONUSCO and regional forces are failing to protect them.
  • Eight civilians were killed and 28 wounded on Tuesday as clashes erupted in the east Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) North-Kivu province after protesters blocked and attacked a convoy of UN peacekeepers.
  • M23 has seized significant territory in East Africa since its comeback in November 2021 and is one of the many militia groups that have caused disturbances in the mineral-rich country for decades.
  • Protests against the peacekeepers have grown over the past months, with demonstrators storming MONUSCO facilities across the country in July to demand their departure. At least 36 people, including four peacekeepers, were reportedly killed.
  • The casualties were confirmed on Wednesday by Lt. Gen. Constant Ndima, who added that those killed had been displaced by attacks of the allegedly Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group in the territories of Nyiragongo and Rutshuru.
  • The UN mission MONUSCO, which has been in the DRC since 1999 and deploys some 16K soldiers, reported that the convoy was returning from a resupply mission north of the provincial capital, Goma, when rebels set four of its trucks on fire at Kanyaruchinya.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

While violence must be condemned, the Congolese people have a right to be upset with the UN peacekeepers. Decades of MONUSCO presence in the country have failed to subside rebel attacks and conflict that have displaced nearly 200K people. Furthermore, the UN mission has neither listened to the Congolese people about their grievances nor denounced Rwanda's involvement in this crisis.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though it's undeniable that MONUSCO has fallen short of achieving its mandate to stabilize the country and bring peace to eastern Congo, demanding UN peacekeepers leave the country is not a solution. As peacekeepers are the only ones ultimately trying to protect civilians, their departure would benefit only rebels and unscrupulous soldiers.

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US Lawmakers Seek to End 'Forever War' Authorizations

Facts

  • A bipartisan group of six US lawmakers — Senators Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.), and Representatives Tom Cole (R-Okla.), Chip Roy (R-Texas), Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) – has introduced legislation to repeal the 1991 and 2002 "Authorizations for the Use of Military Force."
  • Only Congress has the authority to declare war according to the US Constitution; the president does not.
  • Previous legislation to repeal the authorizations was passed in the House in June 2021, but it didn’t receive a vote in the gridlocked Senate.
  • The 2002 Authorization, which was passed for the Iraq War, was used by former Pres. Obama for airstrikes in Syria and Iraq in 2010. Former Pres. Trump used the same authority when he ordered an airstrike in Iraq that killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani in 2020; Pres. Biden says he supports the repeal.
  • The repeal would end both the Iraq and Gulf Wars, and revoke the president’s unilateral authority to deploy troops. Congress would reassert its authority over declaring war if the action is approved.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Constitutionally, the argument against these Authorizations is clear as day Congress is the sole governmental body with the power to declare war. Since the illegal authorization to fight the so-called "War on Terror" 20 years ago, nearly a million people have been killed and more than $21T has been spent, all because of executive branch-led ventures. It's well past time to repeal these laws.

Pro-establishment narrative

These Authorizations are legal and necessary in the counter-terrorism era of warfare we live in today. The US faces threats from state and non-state actors — including al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group — which is why the president and the Pentagon need authority and flexibility. Congress can be briefed by the executive branch, but the president can’t wait around for a painstaking declaration of war process.

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Missouri Dismisses Ban on Minors Carrying Guns

Facts

  • Currently, there's no minimum age for firearm possession in Missouri, and possessing a weapon without a permit isn't illegal. Police can only act if someone is committing a crime or acting menacing.
  • Legislators in Missouri's Republican-majority House on Wednesday voted 104-39 to reject a proposal that would’ve banned minors from carrying guns in public without adult supervision. Only one Republican voted in favor of the proposal.
  • Since SCOTUS overturned a concealed carry law in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen last summer — which led to easier access to concealed-carry permits — it has reportedly been more difficult to adopt gun regulations nationwide.
  • The provision, originally included in House Bill 301 by a bipartisan working group, was removed by the Crime Prevention and Public Safety Committee before a floor vote. It was then defeated after being reintroduced as an amendment by Democratic Rep. Donna Baringer.

Spin

Republican narrative

Unlike California's renewed anti-Second Amendment agenda, Missouri understands that gun control doesn't lead to safer communities. While those opposed to unfettered concealed carry laws will claim it allows criminals to run rampant, what it actually does is give citizens a more affordable chance to defend themselves. All Missourians should be free from police harassment so long as they carry their weapons properly and in accordance with the law.

Democratic narrative

Despite the proposal being unanimously recommended by the bipartisan working group, Republicans, in their fanatical attempt to protect the Second Amendment, decided to block it. But the Second Amendment isn't meant to allow children to carry weapons or hinder police from preventing crimes committed by armed minors.

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