Report: US and Iran in Indirect Talks on Prisoner Swap
An NBC report published on Wednesday claimed that the US is holding indirect negotiations with Iran over a possible prisoner swap to secure the release of US citizens detained in the country.
The discussions with Qatar and the UK acting as mediators have reportedly progressed, but it remains uncertain if a final agreement can be achieved according to four unidentified sources reportedly familiar with the matter.
The potential agreement calls for the release of US citizens imprisoned in Iran in exchange for Washington unlocking billions in Iranian funds currently frozen in South Korea due to US sanctions.
Pro-Iran narrative
Tehran has already shown its goodwill by releasing a dual Iranian-American citizen a few months ago, but Washington has not yet responded in kind. Moreover, Western media is concealing the fact that Iranians are imprisoned in the US simply for violating illegal US sanctions against Tehran. It is up to the US, which already unilaterally terminated the nuclear deal, to bring the negotiations to a positive end.
Anti-Iran narrative
Along with the three detained Iranian Americans, Iran is using many other dual and foreign nationals as bargaining chips to force concessions. Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters have been killed and about 20K arrested since the Mahsa Amini protests began. Washington must not allow itself to be blackmailed by the Tehran regime and should demand political concessions in return for the release of Iranian assets.
Narrative C
Before protests erupted in Iran, which brought talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement to a virtual standstill, the release of up to $9B in Iranian assets in South Korean banks was seen as a first step toward resuming talks to revive the deal. Releasing the money as part of a US-Iran swap could create new momentum.
Nerd narrative
There's a 48% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 358: Russia Launches Renewed Missile Strikes on Infrastructure Facilities.
Russia launched renewed missile attacks on infrastructure facilities across Ukraine in overnight attacks on Thursday — striking sites in the central regions of Poltava and Kirovohrad as well as the western region of Lviv.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, said Russia launched a total of 36 missiles, adding that 16 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. There were no reports of related civilian casualties at this stage.
An additional Russian attack was also recorded in the region of Dnipropetrovsk, striking the city of Pavlohrad. One civilian was reported killed and seven more were injured.
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing barbarity must be confronted.
Pro-Russia narrative
Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and mistaken belief they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FBI Searches Biden Papers at University of Delaware
According to a source familiar with the matter, the FBI has conducted two searches at the University of Delaware as part of its investigation into US Pres. Joe Biden's potential mishandling of sensitive government records.
Biden, who graduated from the University in 1965, donated over 1.8k boxes of records from his time as US Senator in 2012. Under the terms of the gift, the records are to remain sealed until two years after he retires from public life.
Sources report that the FBI conducted the searches in late January and early February, with agents retrieving multiple boxes from the college. The material recovered reportedly didn't appear to have classified markings, though the files are now being analyzed by the FBI.
Republican narrative
Every link to potentially mishandled classified documents adds to Biden's long list of offenses. If the most recent documents are found to contain classified matters, then we know he’s been illegally handling them for more than a decade. The White House keeps saying it’s taking this case seriously, but the president has voiced no regrets over the matter, and his spokespeople have been stonewalling questions about the investigation.
Democratic narrative
The only similarity between Biden's and Trump’s situations is that both cases involve classified documents. Otherwise, the scenarios are totally different, as Biden has voluntarily informed the DOJ about the discoveries and has cooperated with authorities every step of the way. Trump, however, forced the DOJ to get a warrant and conduct a surprise search — and we still don’t know if all of his documents have been returned.
Cynical narrative
That both Biden and Trump have been called out for possessing documents they shouldn’t have had should shed light on the issue of overclassification, which has increased exorbitantly over the past decade, creating an administrative nightmare. There must be reforms to the flawed classification system.
China: Retirees Protest Plan to Cut Health Benefits
Hundreds of Chinese retirees in Wuhan and the northeastern city of Dalian demonstrated for a second time on Wednesday to protest government cuts to their medical benefits. This comes weeks before the annual National People's Congress, which will result in the PRC's new leadership.
In both cities, the protesters sang "The Internationale," a communist anthem, while others reportedly chanted "down with the reactionary government!" Videos on social media showed protesters scuffling with security forces, but the footage has not been fully verified.
The cuts were first announced late last year and center around the costs of medical care for the elderly while ensuring continued prosperity and care for the general population.
Pro-China narrative
Though no one likes when their benefits are being cut, China is in a tough situation socially and economically. In addition to the long-known fact that the population is rapidly aging, China's zero-COVID policy took a serious toll on the economy, especially on a local level. The reforms will give retirees additional benefits that will hopefully counteract the decrease in available monthly funds.
Anti-China narrative
While the sick and old are facing what amounts to austerity measures on their healthcare, party officials have access to generous medical treatments at public cost without having to pay for basic healthcare insurance. Retirees were already struggling before these cuts to their benefits, and now they will have to be even more frugal to survive.
Report: US Could Default as Soon as July
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday predicted that unless the current $31.4T cap on borrowing — which the US reached on Jan. 19 — is raised or suspended, the Treasury Department will no longer be able to pay all of its bills sometime between July and September this year.
The final projection will be determined by tax revenues received in April, with the CBO warning that if they don't meet expectations, a default could occur before July.
The CBO also changed its prediction on the size of the annual federal budget deficit over the next decade, jumping 20% to $18.8T from $15.7T in May.
Democratic narrative
Republicans are holding the debt ceiling hostage in order to dismantle American welfare programs. Though raising the debt ceiling isn't a big deal in comparison to the repercussions of doing nothing, the new GOP majority is only too happy to continue with a stalemate as a government closedown will favor them. It's likely that the US will once again take a ride on the same stopgap merry-go-round as always, to the detriment of average Americans.
Republican narrative
The chief financial officer of the US is begging Congress to increase the nation's credit line because lawmakers continually spend more money than they have. Democrats have been likened to an out-of-control child with a credit card, already having given nearly $100B to Ukraine while Americans struggle to pay for gas and groceries. Hopefully, this emergency will serve as a wake-up call to those in power to manage the nation's finances responsibly.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the US national debt will reach $50T by September 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
PRC Sanctions Lockheed Martin, Raytheon for Taiwan Arms Sales
China placed US-based arms manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Raytheon on its "unreliable entities list" on Thursday, barring the companies from importing goods into China or making new investments in the country.
These are the latest sanctions imposed on the companies over their sale of weapons to Taiwan. Raytheon was awarded $412M in September to upgrade Taiwan's military radar, and Lockheed Martin has also supplied the island with radar, helicopters, and air traffic control equipment; the aerospace giant has also helped with fighter jet development.
China's past sanctions were less clear regarding penalties for violations, though this time both companies are subject to fines "twice the amount" of their arms sales to Taiwan dating back to 2020. Their senior executives will also be barred from entering and working in China.
Pro-China narrative
These sanctions are deserved as both these companies have been advocating for massive weapons shipments to Taiwan, which is a direct threat to Chinese security. Though the US has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies, the punishments against Lockheed and Raytheon may go further than the fine as they lose access to Chinese-based rare-earth elements for manufacturing.
Anti-China narrative
These sanctions are unnecessary as the US has never exported weapons as a means of antagonizing China. Since China and Taiwan split in 1949, the two states have never been the same. The US, as a long-time ally of Taipei, is also obligated by its federal law to maintain economic security with Taiwan, which is why Raytheon and Lockheed Martin conduct both military and commercial aerospace business with the island.
Nerd narrative
There is a 33% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Armenia Offers Peace Treaty Project to Azerbaijan
Armenia's PM Nikol Pashinyan announced on Thursday that a project for a full peace treaty to end the decades-long dispute over the Caucasus' Nagorno-Karabakh region has been presented to Azerbaijan.
The draft document has also been handed over to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk Group co-chairing countries; the US, Russia, and France.
This comes two days after the Kremlin stated that Vladimir Putin had stressed to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, the importance of ensuring stability and security in the southern Caucasus.
Narrative A
This peace treaty project displays Armenia's long-standing commitment to restoring peace in the Caucasus, which Azerbaijan has so far failed to meet. It's Azerbaijan's occupation of the Armenian sovereign territory and aggressiveness toward Armenians that is blocking peace, not Armenia. If Baku is indeed pragmatic and serious about peace, there's nothing impeding its return to negotiations.
Narrative B
This proposal is yet another political stunt made by Yerevan to try to deceive foreign powers into putting pressure on Baku in a cynical game of power politics that uses ethnic Armenians in Karabakh merely as pawns. There is no commitment to peace in this offering as Armenia has once again engaged in negotiations to play for time as it seeks to prepare its troops for a new offensive.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by October 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FDA Considering Over-the-Counter Narcan
On Wednesday, independent advisors to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voted unanimously to recommend the over-the-counter sale of Narcan, known generically as naloxone. Narcan is used to reverse the effects of opioid overdoses by blocking the effect of opiates on the brain.
Late in 2022, a Baltimore-area pharmaceutical company, Emergent BioSolutions, Inc., submitted an application to sell the generic nasal spray to the public, which could help support the opioid overdose problem in the US.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 560K people have died from opioid use in the US in the past 24 years. The deaths occurred in three distinct phases of crises — first prescription opioids, then heroin, and more recently fentanyl.
Narrative A
Naloxone should be as accessible as common headache medications and cold and flu remedies, and the American Medical Association is urging the FDA to make this happen. The wider availability of this life-saving drug will go a long way in destigmatizing drug use and will help in fighting the horrors of the opioid crisis.
Narrative B
While everyone should have access to Narcan, much more must be done to teach people how to use it. In particular, kids must be able to administer it to their parents or siblings. Labels and instructions can be negotiated to ensure that anyone legally allowed to purchase it can then safely administer the medication for the intended outcome. Implementing this solution is more complex than the FDA approval alone.
Israel Passes Law to Revoke Citizenship for Terror Convictions
Israel's Knesset passed a law on Wednesday to permit authorities to strip people of their citizenship or residency if they were jailed and received funds from the Palestinian Authority for actions determined to be terrorism.
The legislation, which passed with a large majority, would largely affect Israeli citizens of Arab descent and Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem, who are not considered full Israeli citizens but permanent residents.
The bill, which had received wide bipartisan support, passed by a vote of 94-10 in support, with most opposition to it originating from Arab parties.
Pro-Palestine narrative
This legislation, like many Israeli policies of the past 75 years, has one goal to advance the Zionist project of disenfranchising and displacing the Palestinian people from their homeland. Arabs were already second-class citizens, and the Knesset continues to codify this reality into Israel's legal system. Such a policy will not affect Jews who commit acts of violence against civilians. Indeed, this policy constitutes a war crime and only strengthens the Israeli apartheid.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though the Palestinians love to cry foul whenever Israel implements a common sense policy such as this one, the reality is Israel is being far more lenient to terrorists and traitors than most other countries in the world. In many other countries, if a citizen were to betray their nation, they would be served the death penalty. However, Israel instead has decided that traitors will simply be deported to the West Bank, where they can live with the governing body that pays their salaries. The outrage is just the usual double standard applied to the Jewish state.
GA Special Grand Jury Releases Partial Report on 2020 Election
On Thursday, a special grand jury in Fulton County, Ga., released a partial report from its investigation into allegations that former Pres. Donald Trump and his allies meddled in Georgia’s presidential election as part of a broader effort to overturn the 2020 election.
This comes after Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney ordered a partial release of the panel's findings, including the introduction, conclusion, and any concerns the grand jury panel had about perjury earlier this week.
The partial report said “one or more witnesses” may have lied under oath and urged Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to pursue indictments against them. The identities of the witnesses, however, weren't revealed in the few pages released to the public.
Pro-Trump narrative
Just like its predecessors, this politically motivated investigation into Trump found absolutely nothing on him. The whole “Special Purpose Grand Jury '' was senseless from the beginning, and after wasting everyone’s time, it's trying to spin its findings to say that one or more witnesses “may” have committed perjury without revealing any names.
Democratic narrative
Trump is taking a very strange — and premature — victory lap by issuing a statement to a partial release of a report in which his allies may have lied under oath. Trump boasts about the report not mentioning him by name, but the partial report didn’t mention anyone’s name. This is another misleading statement from the former president, and much more will come to light from this investigation.