16 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

Report: US and Iran in Indirect Talks on Prisoner Swap

Facts

  • According to the US Dept. of State, Washington is seeking the release of what it alleges are "wrongfully" detained US citizens, Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi, and Morad Tahbaz, from Iranian custody.
  • An NBC report published on Wednesday claimed that the US is holding indirect negotiations with Iran over a possible prisoner swap to secure the release of US citizens detained in the country.
  • As Washington continues to pursue the release of the detainees, tensions are rising between the US and Iran over the country's advancing nuclear program after efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal stalled.
  • Initially discussed in 2021, the scheme would allow Iran to access the funds only for purchasing food, medicine, or other humanitarian needs that are subject to existing US sanctions against the country.
  • The discussions with Qatar and the UK acting as mediators have reportedly progressed, but it remains uncertain if a final agreement can be achieved according to four unidentified sources reportedly familiar with the matter.
  • The potential agreement calls for the release of US citizens imprisoned in Iran in exchange for Washington unlocking billions in Iranian funds currently frozen in South Korea due to US sanctions.

Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

Tehran has already shown its goodwill by releasing a dual Iranian-American citizen a few months ago, but Washington has not yet responded in kind. Moreover, Western media is concealing the fact that Iranians are imprisoned in the US simply for violating illegal US sanctions against Tehran. It is up to the US, which already unilaterally terminated the nuclear deal, to bring the negotiations to a positive end.

Anti-Iran narrative

Along with the three detained Iranian Americans, Iran is using many other dual and foreign nationals as bargaining chips to force concessions. Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters have been killed and about 20K arrested since the Mahsa Amini protests began. Washington must not allow itself to be blackmailed by the Tehran regime and should demand political concessions in return for the release of Iranian assets.

Narrative C

Before protests erupted in Iran, which brought talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement to a virtual standstill, the release of up to $9B in Iranian assets in South Korean banks was seen as a first step toward resuming talks to revive the deal. Releasing the money as part of a US-Iran swap could create new momentum.

Nerd narrative

There's a 48% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

READ FULL STORY

Day 358: Russia Launches Renewed Missile Strikes on Infrastructure Facilities.

Facts

  • An additional Russian attack was also recorded in the region of Dnipropetrovsk, striking the city of Pavlohrad. One civilian was reported killed and seven more were injured.
  • Elsewhere, after initially pledging two battalions of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine — equivalent to 62 vehicles — German defense minister Boris Pistorius said on Wednesday that it's proving difficult to deliver that many vehicles at this stage. He noted that, as things stand, Germany will send 14 Leopard 2 tanks while Portugal will deliver three.
  • In other news, in video captured by the Associated Press, a mercenary fighting for Ukraine could be seen wearing what appears to be a patch belonging to the terror group Islamic State. Russia has previously accused Ukraine of recruiting Islamic State fighters from Syria, but Kyiv denied the allegation.
  • Meanwhile, in Russian attacks on the Donetsk region over the past day, Ukrainian officials said six civilians were killed and 13 more were injured.
  • Russia launched renewed missile attacks on infrastructure facilities across Ukraine in overnight attacks on Thursday — striking sites in the central regions of Poltava and Kirovohrad as well as the western region of Lviv.
  • Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, said Russia launched a total of 36 missiles, adding that 16 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. There were no reports of related civilian casualties at this stage.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing barbarity must be confronted.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and mistaken belief they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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FBI Searches Biden Papers at University of Delaware

Facts

  • According to a source familiar with the matter, the FBI has conducted two searches at the University of Delaware as part of its investigation into US Pres. Joe Biden's potential mishandling of sensitive government records.
  • Biden, who graduated from the University in 1965, donated over 1.8k boxes of records from his time as US Senator in 2012. Under the terms of the gift, the records are to remain sealed until two years after he retires from public life.
  • Earlier this year, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed special counsel Robert Hur to lead the federal investigation after classified documents were discovered at Biden's think tank office in Washington and one of his houses in Delaware.
  • Former Pres. Donald Trump is also still under investigation for classified documents found at his Florida residence, and former VP Mike Pence recently revealed that he found classified material at his Indiana home — searched by the FBI last week.
  • Sources report that the FBI conducted the searches in late January and early February, with agents retrieving multiple boxes from the college. The material recovered reportedly didn't appear to have classified markings, though the files are now being analyzed by the FBI.
  • The searches were reportedly carried out with the cooperation of Biden — who is expected to announce a re-election campaign in the coming weeks or month — and his legal team.

Spin

Republican narrative

Every link to potentially mishandled classified documents adds to Biden's long list of offenses. If the most recent documents are found to contain classified matters, then we know he’s been illegally handling them for more than a decade. The White House keeps saying it’s taking this case seriously, but the president has voiced no regrets over the matter, and his spokespeople have been stonewalling questions about the investigation.

Democratic narrative

The only similarity between Biden's and Trump’s situations is that both cases involve classified documents. Otherwise, the scenarios are totally different, as Biden has voluntarily informed the DOJ about the discoveries and has cooperated with authorities every step of the way. Trump, however, forced the DOJ to get a warrant and conduct a surprise search — and we still don’t know if all of his documents have been returned.

Cynical narrative

That both Biden and Trump have been called out for possessing documents they shouldn’t have had should shed light on the issue of overclassification, which has increased exorbitantly over the past decade, creating an administrative nightmare. There must be reforms to the flawed classification system.

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China: Retirees Protest Plan to Cut Health Benefits

Facts

  • A report released via a PRC government website addressed retirees' complaints, saying that, though there had been a reduction in monthly medical benefits, retired workers would have better access to healthcare and they would actually save money.
  • According to Wuhan residents, the monthly personal medical benefit allowance for retirees, which, before the cuts, was 260 yuan — around $38 — is now 83 yuan — about $12.
  • Hundreds of Chinese retirees in Wuhan and the northeastern city of Dalian demonstrated for a second time on Wednesday to protest government cuts to their medical benefits. This comes weeks before the annual National People's Congress, which will result in the PRC's new leadership.
  • In both cities, the protesters sang "The Internationale," a communist anthem, while others reportedly chanted "down with the reactionary government!" Videos on social media showed protesters scuffling with security forces, but the footage has not been fully verified.
  • The cuts were first announced late last year and center around the costs of medical care for the elderly while ensuring continued prosperity and care for the general population.
  • Wednesday's protests come only a few months after rare demonstrations in November in cities across the country regarding China's "zero-COVID" policy, which Beijing eventually abandoned the following month.

Spin

Pro-China narrative

Though no one likes when their benefits are being cut, China is in a tough situation socially and economically. In addition to the long-known fact that the population is rapidly aging, China's zero-COVID policy took a serious toll on the economy, especially on a local level. The reforms will give retirees additional benefits that will hopefully counteract the decrease in available monthly funds.

Anti-China narrative

While the sick and old are facing what amounts to austerity measures on their healthcare, party officials have access to generous medical treatments at public cost without having to pay for basic healthcare insurance. Retirees were already struggling before these cuts to their benefits, and now they will have to be even more frugal to survive.

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Report: US Could Default as Soon as July

Facts

  • The CBO also changed its prediction on the size of the annual federal budget deficit over the next decade, jumping 20% to $18.8T from $15.7T in May.
  • The CBO cites factors such as social security, Medicare, veterans benefits, and future interest payments as reasons for the growing debt and also predicts that incoming tax revenue won't keep pace with the rising prices. Pres. Biden is expected to detail his budget plan on March 9 and has called on Republicans to lay out their own proposals.
  • The decision to raise the debt limit has been at a deadlock, with the new GOP-majority House requesting that it be accompanied by spending cuts — a measure the Biden admin. and Democrats in Congress have declined.
  • The final projection will be determined by tax revenues received in April, with the CBO warning that if they don't meet expectations, a default could occur before July.
  • The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday predicted that unless the current $31.4T cap on borrowing — which the US reached on Jan. 19 — is raised or suspended, the Treasury Department will no longer be able to pay all of its bills sometime between July and September this year.
  • This comes a day after US Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen warned that a debt default would cause a "catastrophe," including failing to pay millions of social security beneficiaries and military members, despite initiating "extraordinary measures" since Jan. 19.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Republicans are holding the debt ceiling hostage in order to dismantle American welfare programs. Though raising the debt ceiling isn't a big deal in comparison to the repercussions of doing nothing, the new GOP majority is only too happy to continue with a stalemate as a government closedown will favor them. It's likely that the US will once again take a ride on the same stopgap merry-go-round as always, to the detriment of average Americans.

Republican narrative

The chief financial officer of the US is begging Congress to increase the nation's credit line because lawmakers continually spend more money than they have. Democrats have been likened to an out-of-control child with a credit card, already having given nearly $100B to Ukraine while Americans struggle to pay for gas and groceries. Hopefully, this emergency will serve as a wake-up call to those in power to manage the nation's finances responsibly.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US national debt will reach $50T by September 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

READ FULL STORY

PRC Sanctions Lockheed Martin, Raytheon for Taiwan Arms Sales

Facts

  • China placed US-based arms manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Raytheon on its "unreliable entities list" on Thursday, barring the companies from importing goods into China or making new investments in the country.
  • China's past sanctions were less clear regarding penalties for violations, though this time both companies are subject to fines "twice the amount" of their arms sales to Taiwan dating back to 2020. Their senior executives will also be barred from entering and working in China.
  • China's unreliable entity list is relatively new, having been announced by the state's Ministry of Commerce in 2019 — particularly aimed at combatting the growing US sanction regime — and implementation guidelines released in 2020.
  • These are the latest sanctions imposed on the companies over their sale of weapons to Taiwan. Raytheon was awarded $412M in September to upgrade Taiwan's military radar, and Lockheed Martin has also supplied the island with radar, helicopters, and air traffic control equipment; the aerospace giant has also helped with fighter jet development.
  • This comes as the US has already barred sales of weapons-related technology to China, though some military contractors also have civilian aerospace business dealings in the PRC. Lockheed Martin, for example, has sold air traffic control equipment to Chinese civilian airports.
  • US-China tensions have risen in recent years as China has raised its rhetoric around Taiwan. The US officially recognizes the One China policy but is also Taiwan's number one weapons provider.

Spin

Pro-China narrative

These sanctions are deserved as both these companies have been advocating for massive weapons shipments to Taiwan, which is a direct threat to Chinese security. Though the US has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies, the punishments against Lockheed and Raytheon may go further than the fine as they lose access to Chinese-based rare-earth elements for manufacturing.

Anti-China narrative

These sanctions are unnecessary as the US has never exported weapons as a means of antagonizing China. Since China and Taiwan split in 1949, the two states have never been the same. The US, as a long-time ally of Taipei, is also obligated by its federal law to maintain economic security with Taiwan, which is why Raytheon and Lockheed Martin conduct both military and commercial aerospace business with the island.

Nerd narrative

There is a 33% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

READ FULL STORY

Armenia Offers Peace Treaty Project to Azerbaijan

Facts

  • Armenia's PM Nikol Pashinyan announced on Thursday that a project for a full peace treaty to end the decades-long dispute over the Caucasus' Nagorno-Karabakh region has been presented to Azerbaijan.
  • Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ayxan Hajizada, however, reacted by claiming that Armenia has proposed an "unacceptable" international mechanism to reintegrate Armenians living in Karabakh and hasn't yet given up its allegedly unlawful territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
  • On Wednesday, Armenia's FM Ararat Mirzoyan declared that Yerevan is ready to restore peace and fully normalize relations with Turkey, which closed its borders with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War and backed Baku in the 2020 offensive.
  • The draft document has also been handed over to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk Group co-chairing countries; the US, Russia, and France.
  • The former Soviet republics have fought two wars for control of Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian-majority enclave, killing over 35K people, and Yerevan has recently accused Baku of ethnic cleansing and forcing Armenians to leave the region as Azerbaijani environmental activists block the only road linking Karabakh to Armenia.
  • This comes two days after the Kremlin stated that Vladimir Putin had stressed to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, the importance of ensuring stability and security in the southern Caucasus.

Spin

Narrative A

This peace treaty project displays Armenia's long-standing commitment to restoring peace in the Caucasus, which Azerbaijan has so far failed to meet. It's Azerbaijan's occupation of the Armenian sovereign territory and aggressiveness toward Armenians that is blocking peace, not Armenia. If Baku is indeed pragmatic and serious about peace, there's nothing impeding its return to negotiations.

Narrative B

This proposal is yet another political stunt made by Yerevan to try to deceive foreign powers into putting pressure on Baku in a cynical game of power politics that uses ethnic Armenians in Karabakh merely as pawns. There is no commitment to peace in this offering as Armenia has once again engaged in negotiations to play for time as it seeks to prepare its troops for a new offensive.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by October 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

READ FULL STORY

FDA Considering Over-the-Counter Narcan

Facts

  • According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 560K people have died from opioid use in the US in the past 24 years. The deaths occurred in three distinct phases of crises — first prescription opioids, then heroin, and more recently fentanyl.
  • In 2017, former Pres. Trump’s administration was the first to classify the opioid crisis as a public health emergency. Since then, Pres. Biden’s administration has renewed the declaration every 90 days.
  • Late in 2022, a Baltimore-area pharmaceutical company, Emergent BioSolutions, Inc., submitted an application to sell the generic nasal spray to the public, which could help support the opioid overdose problem in the US.
  • No determination has been made on how much the drug will cost.
  • On Wednesday, independent advisors to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voted unanimously to recommend the over-the-counter sale of Narcan, known generically as naloxone. Narcan is used to reverse the effects of opioid overdoses by blocking the effect of opiates on the brain.
  • The panel’s recommendation will now go to the FDA, which is expected to make its final decision by March 29. If approved, consumers will be able to purchase the drug in common locations, such as grocery stores, convenience stores, and possibly even vending machines.

Spin

Narrative A

Naloxone should be as accessible as common headache medications and cold and flu remedies, and the American Medical Association is urging the FDA to make this happen. The wider availability of this life-saving drug will go a long way in destigmatizing drug use and will help in fighting the horrors of the opioid crisis.

Narrative B

While everyone should have access to Narcan, much more must be done to teach people how to use it. In particular, kids must be able to administer it to their parents or siblings. Labels and instructions can be negotiated to ensure that anyone legally allowed to purchase it can then safely administer the medication for the intended outcome. Implementing this solution is more complex than the FDA approval alone.

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Israel Passes Law to Revoke Citizenship for Terror Convictions

Facts

  • Arab lawmakers in Israel as well as Palestinian officials in the West Bank criticized the new law, deeming it racist because it does not apply to Jews — despite its proponents arguing that those who profit from betraying their own country do not deserve citizenship.
  • Israel's Knesset passed a law on Wednesday to permit authorities to strip people of their citizenship or residency if they were jailed and received funds from the Palestinian Authority for actions determined to be terrorism.
  • Most Palestinians generally view prisoners favorably, and the Palestinian Authority considers payments to them and their families as a form of welfare for those in need. However, Israel claims they reward violence and serve as an incentive for others to carry out attacks.
  • The bill, which had received wide bipartisan support, passed by a vote of 94-10 in support, with most opposition to it originating from Arab parties.
  • The Israeli rights group HaMoked estimates that 4.7K Palestinians are imprisoned by Israel for security offenses. Approximately 360 are Israeli citizens or residents of East Jerusalem.
  • The legislation, which passed with a large majority, would largely affect Israeli citizens of Arab descent and Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem, who are not considered full Israeli citizens but permanent residents.

Spin

Pro-Palestine

This legislation, like many Israeli policies of the past 75 years, has one goal to advance the Zionist project of disenfranchising and displacing the Palestinian people from their homeland. Arabs were already second-class citizens, and the Knesset continues to codify this reality into Israel's legal system. Such a policy will not affect Jews who commit acts of violence against civilians. Indeed, this policy constitutes a war crime and only strengthens the Israeli apartheid.

Pro-Israel

Though the Palestinians love to cry foul whenever Israel implements a common sense policy such as this one, the reality is Israel is being far more lenient to terrorists and traitors than most other countries in the world. In many other countries, if a citizen were to betray their nation, they would be served the death penalty. However, Israel instead has decided that traitors will simply be deported to the West Bank, where they can live with the governing body that pays their salaries. The outrage is just the usual double standard applied to the Jewish state.

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GA Special Grand Jury Releases Partial Report on 2020 Election

Facts

  • On Thursday, a special grand jury in Fulton County, Ga., released a partial report from its investigation into allegations that former Pres. Donald Trump and his allies meddled in Georgia’s presidential election as part of a broader effort to overturn the 2020 election.
  • Seventy-five witnesses gave sworn testimony, including Trump allies Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), as the special grand jury examined Trump’s controversial claims of voter fraud and his Jan. 2, 2021, phone call with Georgia Sec. of State Brad Raffensberger in which he allegedly claimed he won the state.
  • The partial report said “one or more witnesses” may have lied under oath and urged Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to pursue indictments against them. The identities of the witnesses, however, weren't revealed in the few pages released to the public.
  • The special grand jury also unanimously voted that there was no “widespread” voter fraud in the state. The former president released a statement Thursday maintaining his innocence, asserting that he did “absolutely nothing wrong.”
  • This comes after Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney ordered a partial release of the panel's findings, including the introduction, conclusion, and any concerns the grand jury panel had about perjury earlier this week.
  • Unlike a regular grand jury, the special purpose grand jury cannot issue indictments, but rather it submits its findings to the district attorney, who can then decide whether to present evidence to a grand jury for criminal charges.

Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Just like its predecessors, this politically motivated investigation into Trump found absolutely nothing on him. The whole “Special Purpose Grand Jury '' was senseless from the beginning, and after wasting everyone’s time, it's trying to spin its findings to say that one or more witnesses “may” have committed perjury without revealing any names.

Democratic narrative

Trump is taking a very strange — and premature — victory lap by issuing a statement to a partial release of a report in which his allies may have lied under oath. Trump boasts about the report not mentioning him by name, but the partial report didn’t mention anyone’s name. This is another misleading statement from the former president, and much more will come to light from this investigation.

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