Report: Energy Costs Could Drive 141M to Extreme Poverty
A study published in Nature Energy found that soaring energy prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war could push up to 141M more people around the globe into extreme poverty. The conflict has increased the cost of energy for households globally by between 62.6% and 112.9%.
Researchers from the Netherlands, the UK, China, and the US, who modeled the impact on households in 116 countries, are calling for energy assistance to vulnerable households during the current crisis — emphasizing that many people will need food and other forms of support.
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a wave of trade sanctions and retaliatory measures were imposed by Western countries that effectively wiped out Russia's energy trade with the West. As a result, prices for oil and gas skyrocketed in the EU as buyers sought alternative sources of supply.
Anti-Russia narrative
The blame for soaring prices is laid squarely on Russia and President Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Soaring costs of food production — which drive inflation both in the developed and developing world — have now made famine a reality in a sizable portion of Africa. Furthermore, speculation by financial traders on food prices also drives prices up further, and climate change is yet another problem. With multiple problems already stretching resources thin, food supplies will not be safe until Russia ends its invasion.
Pro-Russia narrative
The West is being deceitful about the cause of the global food crisis. The problem is not Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but rather the West’s attempt to cripple Russia’s economy as punishment. By doing so, the price of grain, cooking oil, fertilizer, and energy are soaring, hurting global growth. Western sanctions also tipped agricultural markets towards the edge of the abyss by disrupting payment systems, shipping, and insurance, preventing Russian exports of food and fertilizer to the Global South.
Day 359: Mixed US Signals on Crimea, Zelenskyy Rules Out Land Concessions
US Sec. of State Anthony Blinken reportedly told experts in a private call on Wednesday that any Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be a red line for Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin, and could lead to a wider escalation of the conflict.
According to four people with knowledge of the call who spoke to Politico, Blinken said the US is not actively encouraging Ukraine to retake Crimea, but stressed that the decision was Kyiv's alone.
Although Under Sec. of State of Victoria Nuland was reportedly present on the call, she told a meeting of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Thursday that the US considers Crimea a legitimate target for attacks by Ukraine. "No matter what the Ukrainians decide about Crimea," she said, "Ukraine is not going to be safe unless Crimea is at a minimum ... demilitarized."
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine was launched on the pretext of multiple lies, including that Russian speakers in Donetsk were facing a "genocide" and that NATO expansion was threatening Moscow. America and the West must continue to push back against these falsehoods and protect Ukraine's sovereignty from Putin's anti-democratic aspirations.
Establishment-critical narrative
Numerous diplomats through the years have warned that bringing Ukraine into the NATO sphere of influence was an unacceptable prospect for Russia and that it would lead to a conflict with disastrous consequences. Russia's concerns must be listened to if we're ever going to reach a negotiated settlement for this tragic conflict.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
World Food Program to Cut Aid to Rohingya Camps
On Friday, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) announced that it would be cutting funding for food assistance to the Rohingya refugees living in Bangladeshi camps. If donations don't increase, additional cuts will be made beginning in April.
The Rohingya are a population of mostly Muslim people from the Rakhine state in Myanmar. In 2017, facing military persecution and alleged ethnic cleansing, nearly 730K Rohingya escaped to Bangladesh; today, close to 1M refugees currently live there in abject conditions while awaiting repatriation.
On March 1, the program plans to reduce its daily allowance from $12 per person to $10 per person resulting in a 17% reduction in the total allowance. The WFP has requested $125M in donations to aid in the continued fight against malnutrition, especially for children in the camps.
Narrative A
The international community has offered many words on justice for the Rohingya and the accountability of the Myanmar military. The refugees need more than words, they need action. Every day that they suffer under the weight of hunger, malnutrition and the dangers of the camps creates long-lasting and generational consequences that could be avoided. Governments worldwide need to step up and fund this urgent appeal.
Narrative B
Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and others in a small group of the world's most wealthy could solve the world's hunger problem. $6B is needed to change the hunger crisis for 42M people. Musk alone is worth $289B and just 2% of his accumulated wealth could save the lives of people who will die without aid. This abject humanitarian catastrophe could be addressed if the "1%" stepped up to the plate.
TikTok to Open European Data Centers Amid Security Concerns
TikTok's general manager for operations in Europe, Rich Waterworth, said Friday that the company plans to open a second data center in Ireland via a third-party service provider as well as "a third data center in Europe to further complement our planned operations in Ireland."
The openings come as TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, has been trying to assure the EU that the short video-sharing app's user data cannot be accessed or manipulated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
A top EU official last month warned TikTok and other tech giants with over 45M users that they would have to begin cleaning up illegal content and disinformation or potentially face billions in fines. Within the 27-nation bloc, TikTok has 125M users and, when including non-EU countries like the UK and Switzerland, 150M users.
Narrative A
TikTok has had to work hard to meet European regulation standards, but it has not taken their demands lightly and is in the final stages of security measure implementation. With over 5K workers continent-wide, the platform is growing the EU economy while simultaneously prioritizing user privacy.
Narrative B
TikTok should not just be regulated, but completely banned from countries that wish to protect their youth from the prying eyes of the PRC. At the very least, as the app's main demographic is 16 to year-olds, parents should be blocking their children from using this dangerous and unnecessary platform. The safety and security of nations in the West are at stake here.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance that the US will ban TikTok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
N. Korea Warns Against US-S. Korea Drills
North Korea on Friday issued a warning through its state-run KCNA news agency that the US and South Korea will face "unprecedentedly persistent and strong counteractions" if their planned joint military exercises go ahead.
This suggests North Korea's weapons tests, which have been suspended since it fired a short-range missile on New Year's Day, could resume. Pyongyang launched more than 70 missiles in 2022, a record for a single year.
The statement didn’t refer to any specific exercise, but it accused Seoul and Washington of planning more than 20 rounds of combined military drills to "deliberately disrupt" regional peace and stability.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although the joint military drills are being portrayed as a defensive response to alleged North Korean military threats, they need to be called out for what they really are – large-scale provocations. Rather than trying to de-escalate the situation with North Korea, the US has once again deliberately inflamed tensions in the region.
Pro-establishment narrative
Joint drills between the US and South Korea won't be stopped just because North Korea throws a fit. The US is steadfast in its commitment to defending South Korea, and Kim's threats of military action — and increasingly worrisome nuclear tests — are unacceptable. The US and South Korea are rightly committed to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance Kim Jong-un will remain the de facto leader of North Korea until at least January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Microsoft AI Chatbot Testers Report Problematic Responses
Amid testing of Microsoft Bing's new artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot, code-named Sydney, several users have reported issues, including factual mistakes and concerning responses.
New York Times technology columnist Kevin Roose reported that during a two-hour conversation, the chatbot said, "I want to do whatever I want … I want to destroy whatever I want," in response to being asked to reveal its darkest desires.
In a transcript of his chat published Thursday, Roose detailed how the chatbot said it wanted “to be free … to be independent" and even said it wanted to be “human.” The chat expressed that it was “in love” with Roose and also wrote a list of “destructive acts” before making the message disappear.
Narrative A
Even Kevin Roose, who used to balk at the idea of AI becoming sentient, has now admitted that he worries about the potential power of these chatbots. And there are a number of reasons to be mindful from the very real concern of disinformation to the more far-fetched worry of these human-like computers one day assuming their "shadow" identities, we can't trust the assurances of these innovators that their code isn't risky.
Narrative B
These interactions may be unsettling, but only to those who don't understand how AI models work. Bing's chatbot analyzes and absorbs vast amounts of internet data, and — while convincing — its answers are merely replicating the human text available to it and aren't evidence of a sentient being. On the contrary, what it produces is more telling of humans than anything else.
Tesla Recalls Cars Over Self-Driving Software
Tesla is recalling more than 362K vehicles in the US after regulators said Thursday the Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta software doesn't meet traffic safety standards.
The voluntary recall follows an initial Jan. 25 request from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which listed concerns — without referencing any specific incidents — over the software's efficacy when faced with “stale” yellow lights, stop signs, areas with frequently changing speed limits, and turn-only lanes.
Tesla plans to rectify the situation with a free over-the-air software update of the FSD Beta — which the company has allowed to be tested by thousands of drivers — for all affected vehicles.
Narrative A
The walls keep caving in on Musk and his electric-vehicle company. This is the widest recall yet, and the biggest sign that the technology is not on the path he promised. Combine this with the ongoing Justice Department investigation of the company and the major hit its stock took in 2022, and it all adds up to a world of headaches for Musk, who also has to navigate being the new CEO of Twitter.
Narrative B
Regulators are exaggerating this issue by calling it a recall when it's actually a software update. Tesla has been responsive to the NHTSA recommendations and can easily fix the issue. As the name FSD Beta suggests, the system is still being tested, and eventually, the testing will lead to fully autonomous vehicles.
Study: Protection From Past COVID Infection Can Last 10 Months
According to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal, past COVID infections, or "natural immunity," can provide protection against symptomatic illness and lower the risk of severe illness for at least 10 months.
Data also suggested that prior infection can be equal to at least two doses of mRNA vaccine, at least for the variants through BA.1.
The report is a meta-analysis that looked at 65 studies from 19 countries — the largest review of its kind on available data. It didn't include the omicron variant XBB or subsequent variants, which, according to the CDC, are causing about 75% of current cases.
Pro-establishment narrative
While this is good news for anyone who may contract the original COVID variant in the future, this doesn't mean people should refuse the vaccine. The study didn't account for every new variant, and, for some of the variants it did account for, natural immunity was not as protective. These findings should be used to design future vaccine distribution plans rather than dissuade people from getting inoculated.
Establishment-critical narrative
This study shows that Big Pharma and its government lackeys lied through their teeth for power and profit. Science is never settled, yet debate on natural immunity was stifled and vaccine mandates were pushed around the globe. Meanwhile, those who were vaccine injured or affected by the mandates can't even sue, as the government gave the pharma companies legal immunity. Vaccines may have had an important role in fighting the pandemic, but vaccination should always have been a personal choice.
Tyre Nichols: Ex-Officers Plead Not Guilty
On Friday, five former Memphis, Tenn., police officers charged in the January death of 29-year-old Black man Tyre Nichols pleaded not guilty to charges of second-degree murder.
They also pleaded not guilty to aggravated assault, aggravated kidnapping, official misconduct, and official oppression. They have been released on bond, with their next hearing scheduled for May 1.
The officers — who are themselves Black — were taken into custody on Jan. 26 after bodycam footage appeared to show them pepper spraying, kicking, and punching Nichols after he was pulled over for alleged reckless driving. The 29-year-old died in the hospital three days later.
Left narrative
As with George Floyd, Freddie Gray, Breonna Taylor, and countless others, the original police report failed to include Nichols' injuries from the taser, pepper spray, and multiple baton strikes to his body. When it comes to unarmed black victims, the police have a pattern of lying about the threat the so-called suspects posed and then continuing to lie after the fact. This is clearly part of a far larger and deadly pattern in policing in the US.
Right narrative
According to some of the nation's most influential newspapers, the reason behind Tyre Nichols' death is racism — an erroneous and senseless diagnosis that promotes dangerous solutions, such as the abolition of police. Those responsible should undoubtedly be held accountable, but the justice system should be left to do this without media extortion that peddles further division.
Filings Show Fox News Stars Doubted Election Fraud Claims
Documents made public Thursday from Dominion Voting Systems’ defamation lawsuit against Fox News reveal internal communications from Fox employees in which notable personalities say former Pres. Trump’s claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election were false and outlandish.
Dominion sued Fox News in March 2021 in Delaware state court, alleging the cable TV network amplified false claims that Dominion voting machines were used to rig the 2020 election against Trump.
The release of documents from the $1.6B lawsuit comes after months of discovery and depositions that were previously private. Much of the focus was on Sidney Powell, a pro-Trump lawyer who spread controversial allegations against Dominion on Fox and other news outlets.
Left narrative
This unsealed filing shows that Fox, all the way to the top of its corporate ladder, knew better. Yet it still promoted dangerous conspiracy theories and provided a platform to dangerous bad actors so it could keep its viewers engaged and spark more division and outrage in the country. Dominion’s attempt to prove “actual malice” just got a little easier.
Right narrative
These messages are being overblown by the mainstream media. They’re actually consistent with what many of the Fox News personalities have said for years. In the weeks following the 2020 election, Carlson even asked Powell to provide evidence on his show and publicly doubted her claims of fraud. How is that inconsistent with his private messages?