13 March 2023

Daily Newsletter

North Korea Claims Test of Submarine-Launched Cruise Missiles

Facts

  • According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency, the exercise was intended to confirm the weapon system's effectiveness as part of Pyongyang's "nuclear deterrent." Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, which are difficult to intercept, are not subject to UN sanctions against Pyongyang.
  • Despite boasting dozens of submarines, North Korea is said to have only one experimental submarine to test submarine-launched ballistic missiles. If confirmed, the latest exercise would reportedly be North Korea's first-ever submarine-launched cruise missile test.
  • Meanwhile, the South Korean military confirmed the underwater launching drill but said Pyongyang's description of the launch differed from its own findings and that people should "not believe everything" North Korea claims, without revealing further details.
  • North Korea on Sunday reportedly test-fired two submarine-launched cruise missiles off its eastern coast amid what Pyongyang claims are "frantic war preparation moves" by the US and South Korea.
  • Pyongyang's latest missile launch came a day before South Korea and the US began their largest joint military exercises in five years. Called "Freedom Shield 23," the drills are set to last at least ten days and are designed to reportedly focus on the "changing security environment" caused by North Korea's enhanced military buildup.
  • While the South Korean military stresses the "defensive" nature of the joint exercises, Pyongyang characterizes all such drills with the US as rehearsals for an invasion, and last week North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un commanded his military to step up exercises to get ready for a "real war."

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Although the US and its allies blame Pyongyang for rising tensions, there is no doubt that Washington bears primary responsibility for having led diplomatic relations to a dead end, especially since the Biden administration switched back to a confrontational course following Donald Trump's efforts to de-escalate through negotiations. By fueling the conflict to forge closer ties with Japan and South Korea to increase its military footprint in the Indo-Pacific region, the US risks an incalculable escalation.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's time to acknowledge that the strategy of persuading Pyongyang to make concessions through a policy mix of negotiation and deterrence has failed. Instead, Washington should resort to a strategy that has already proven successful and aim to collapse the regime from within via a media campaign to educate North Koreans about the country's desolate human rights situation. A rising population is the best way to achieve complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization.

Nerd narrative

There is a 14% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: Rohingya Refugee Camp Fire Was 'Planned Sabotage'

Facts

  • Investigators drew on input from scores of eyewitnesses to claim that militant groups were behind the alleged arson in a bid to establish supremacy inside the camps, with the panel finding that fire broke out in several places simultaneously.
  • On Sunday, the seven-member probe committee into the March 5 fire at a Rohingya refugee camp in the Bangladesh district of Cox's Bazar presented its report, describing the blaze as a "planned and purposeful act of sabotage."
  • Since the devastating blaze on March 5, at least seven other fire incidents were reported in different locations within the camp. The Bangladesh defense ministry last month stated that 222 fire incidents took place in the Rohingya camps from Jan. 2021 to Dec. 2022, including 60 cases of arson.
  • The interviewees said that refugees were intentionally instructed not to extinguish the blaze as they were told to run for their lives. A day earlier, two unidentified criminal groups reportedly clashed and exchanged gunfire.
  • The investigation committee added that almost 16K Rohingya refugees from more than 3K families were affected by the incident at the Balukhali Rohingya camp in Ukhiya. The blaze completely destroyed over 2.6K houses and 2.7K offices while also injuring 212 people.
  • Violence has been mounting through the camps in southeast Bangladesh, where almost a million Rohingya have sought refugee status since 2017. This has stemmed from concerns surrounding persecution by the Myanmar military, as militant groups have turned against each other; at least 40 refugees were killed in 2022.

Spin

Narrative A

The suffering of the Rohingya people is indescribable. The accommodations and conditions of the camp have been appalling and now the fire has destroyed countless homes and businesses, leaving people to face homelessness and uncertainty. Life can only improve in the camp if recovery includes homes made of more substantial and sturdy materials like steel and brick, and urgent health and safety needs are addressed.

Narrative B

Following the five-year mark of refugees inhabiting Bangladesh, the government is coercing the refugees to return home. The National League for Democracy-led government and the Myanmar State Administrative Council have failed to secure a safe and humane environment in the Rakhine state. The Rohingya people want nothing more than to leave the barbed-wire, subpar encampments, and return home but there are no safe options to do so.

Narrative C

This tragedy was bound to happen — and that was exactly why Bangladesh was urgently asking for help from all relevant stakeholders to achieve a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis. Bangladesh is a small, highly-populated country that already faces several other challenges, so the continued presence of more than 1M displaced people is neither reasonable nor sustainable.

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Saudi Aramco Recorded a Historic $161B Profit in 2022

Facts

  • Aramco also declared a dividend of $19.5B for Q4 of 2022, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, which will be paid out in the first quarter of this year. The company's board has recommended that shareholders be issued bonus shares, with one new share being given for every 10 shares owned.
  • Aramco CEO and President Amin Nasser said, "Given that we anticipate oil and gas will remain essential for the foreseeable future, the risks of underinvestment in our industry are real — including contributing to higher energy prices."
  • Aramco is the latest energy firm to report record profits following soaring energy prices and bigger volumes. Earlier this year, ExxonMobil and Shell showed record 2022 results at $55.7B and $39.9B, respectively; Aramco's profit represents a 46.5% rise compared with last year.
  • Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company of Saudi Arabia, reported that it earned $161B last year — the highest-ever annual profit recorded by a publicly listed company. The announcement drew immediate criticism from activists concerned about climate change.
  • The company's profits last year were almost triple those of Exxon and more than four times those of Shell, Chevron, and BP — all of which are performing at record levels.

Spin

Narrative A

Oil prices swung wildly throughout the globe after Russia invaded Ukraine which, as was the case with many other oil companies, led to higher profits. However, profits in and of themselves don't mean something nefarious occurred. Aramco will be able to take these record amounts and invest them in cleaner, lower-carbon energy sources in pursuit of a greener future.

Narrative B

Saudi Arabia, with a long history of human rights abuses within its own border and also in Yemen, should not be using Aramco's extraordinary profits to finance these atrocities. Instead, Aramco should fund a human rights-based transition to renewable energy.

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Report: China to Host Gulf Cooperation Council-Iran Summit

Facts

  • Beijing emerged as a mediator in regional disputes in January 2022, when then-foreign minister Wang Yi hosted his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Turkey, and Iran, and vowed to strengthen ties with all players based on "common interests and mutual respect."
  • Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping reputedly put up the idea for the gathering during a regional summit he attended in Saudi Arabia last December, with the GCC members allegedly welcoming his proposal to cool down tensions with Iran.
  • If the planned meeting between GCC states and Iran takes place and is effective, Beijing would secure yet another meaningful diplomatic victory in the region.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that China is planning to host an unprecedented high-level summit between Iran and the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) later this year, as Beijing steps in regional politics.
  • This report comes a few days after the PRC hosted talks that led to an unanticipated deal restoring diplomatic relations between Tehran and its regional rival Riyadh after seven years of severed ties.
  • Xi is supposedly pushing for the expansion of Chinese influence in the Middle East, focusing on politics in the strategic region while US preeminence dwindles.

Spin

Pro-China narrative

China has just proven that the US style of creating conflict to pit nations against one another is no way to achieve regional peace anywhere, let alone in the Middle East. These nations are fed up with war, and China has offered them an opportunity to slip out from under the thumb of the US and engage in legitimate, autonomous diplomacy with a different global power. This is the beginning of a new era, one in which countries don't have to cower in the face of Western might just to build economic success.

Anti-China narrative

While it does seem that China's goals in the Middle East are limited to energy and economic relations, what Beijing hasn't yet faced are the dire security problems that come with doing business in the region. Words like "common interests" and "political dialogue" are all good in theory, but only time will tell if Beijing can achieve these lofty goals in the face of rising militant groups and sporadic conflict.

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US Regulators Close Another Bank as Financial Concerns Grow

Facts

  • A joint statement from the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced the closing and said that: "as with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), no losses will be borne by the taxpayer. Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected."
  • Barney Frank, a Signature Bank board member, blamed the bank's collapse on the fallout from the SVB failure. After the news of SVB shuttering, consumers reported that they felt more confident in banking with larger institutions such as JP Morgan Chase.
  • On Sunday, New York bank regulators shut down Signature Bank to protect consumers and the financial network. The closing marks the third major bank collapse in less than a week.
  • Signature Bank is the second well-known cryptocurrency bank to fail recently. Silvergate, valued at $4.4B, announced it would close and liquidate all assets last week. Security filings at the close of 2022 showed Signature Bank had more than $110B in assets.
  • The bank held more than 40 branches across New York, California, Connecticut North Carolina, and Nevada. Its $83B in deposits were transferred to the FDIC-operated Signature Bridge Bank to "maximize the value of the institution for a future sale and maintain banking services in the communities formerly served by Signature Bank." Banking operations for existing consumers were expected to return on Monday.
  • With several banks shuttering, US regulators are facing a potential financial crisis. US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has committed to considering extraordinary measures to protect small banking institutions that may be at risk.

Spin

Narrative A

The banking collapse last week set off more than a financial panic. Key players in the crypto, tech, and government sectors are now playing the blame game. Crypto backers and fans blame centralized banking and the feds for over-regulating, while the tech investors are pointing the finger at the bad actors of the crypto realm like Sam Bankman-Fried that resulted in the overnight collapse. One thing is for certain, it's been a hard year for both tech and crypto and the outlook isn't getting any better.

Narrative B

The US government is very concerned about protecting depositors through this banking collapse but make no mistake, a bailout for these banking institutions is not an option. Following the last financial collapse, a major government bailout took place forcing a reform to our systems and it cannot happen again. Regulators must review their options while considering that the fallout will be far-reaching and extraordinary measures should be used to provide protection and rights during this crisis. Those graces should not be extended to shareholders.

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Day 383: Xi Jinping To Meet Putin, Speak To Zelenskyy

Facts

  • Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping is reportedly planning to speak with the Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy, after he visits Moscow next week to meet with Russian Pres. Putin in an attempt to play a more active role in facilitating the end of the year-long war.
  • Earlier, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin referred to the situation in Bakhmut as "very difficult." He said: "The enemy is battling for every metre [sic]...Ukrainians are throwing endless reserves..."
  • Elsewhere, Zelenskyy awarded the Hero of Ukraine to Oleksandr Matsievskyi — a sniper from the 119th Separate Brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces who was executed by machine gun fire on camera after being captured by Russian soldiers.
  • However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that military action was the only way to achieve goals in Ukraine, saying, "So far there are no preconditions for the transition of the process into a peaceful course."
  • Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are locked in a brutal battle with Russian troops to control Bakhmut. The commander of Ukrainian ground forces, Colonel general Oleksandr Syrskyi, said: "All enemy attempts to capture the town are repelled by artillery, tanks, and other firepower," and that Russian Wagner Group mercenaries "are attacking from several directions trying to break through the defenses of our troops and advance to the central districts of the town."
  • Xi's efforts to play peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine come as China called for a ceasefire and peace talks to find a political solution to the conflict and put an end to unilateral sanctions in a 12-point proposal offered last month.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Beijing — which has refrained from condemning Russian military action in Ukraine or calling it an invasion, or speaking with Zelenskyy since the hostilities broke out — wants to use the opportunity to burnish its status as a global peace broker, navigate escalating competition with the US, and capitalize on the momentum from the Saudi-Iran deal. While it may cast itself as a neutral mediator, China would ensure the talks tilt in favor of Russia — its "no limits" partner.

Establishment-critical narrative

China officially regards Ukraine as a sovereign nation, while it was Ukraine’s largest trading partner before the war. If Xi Jinping calls for respecting the sovereignty of all countries and warns Moscow against escalating the conflict with nuclear weapons, his proposal to end the war must be given a chance. Given the appalling human cost of the war, the world must consider the proposal carefully instead of dismissing it outrightly. The PRC could potentially play a vital role in resolving this horrific conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Yemen: Warring Sides Hold Prisoner Exchange Talks in Geneva

Facts

  • Grundberg expressed his hopes that "the parties are ready to engage in serious and forthcoming discussions to agree on releasing as many detainees as possible,” urging them to fulfill their commitments.
  • The most recent large prisoner exchange between the warring sides occurred in October 2020, with over 1K prisoners being swapped. Regional and international mediators have been calling for another deal to free thousands of detainees as hostilities have notably halted since April last year under a UN-brokered agreement.
  • The negotiations were launched only a day after Saudi Arabia and Iran announced that they would be re-engaging diplomatically following negotiations mediated by China. Talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement have also progressed since they began in October.
  • The UN announced on Saturday that Yemen's Saudi-backed government and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels began talks in Geneva regarding a prisoner exchange. The UN envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and the International Committee of the Red Cross have co-chaired the negotiations.
  • Yemen has been engulfed by violence and instability since 2014, when the Houthi rebels captured much of the country, prompting a Saudi-led intervention.
  • Yemen's official news agency reported on Monday that the Houthis released 117 inmates ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts next week, following inspections by local and judicial officials.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The Houthis have continued to threaten peace and security in Yemen since they launched their coup in 2014. However, through mediation and compromise, an agreement can be made if the Houthis and their Iranian backers are willing to compromise and allow the country to enjoy peace. Saudi Arabia is surely willing to compromise and has always been willing to help bring peace to the impoverished Arab nation, but Iranian meddling has not helped the situation. Ultimately, the conflict can only end in a political settlement.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's the Yemeni government and its powerful Gulf allies who have obstructed peace in Yemen and continue to punish its citizens for standing up for themselves, but, ultimately, a political process is likely the best way to end the war at this stage in the conflict. The Houthis have shown in the past that they are willing to take good-faith actions for peace, and releasing prisoners demonstrates this desire. Hopefully, with good mediation, this war of aggression can finally come to an end.

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McCarthy to ‘Slowly Roll Out’ Jan. 6 Footage to Media Outlets

Facts

  • Both McCarthy's decision to grant Carlson exclusive access and Carlson’s depiction of the events of that day have been criticized. Former Republican VP Mike Pence called what occurred on Jan. 6 a "disgrace" and argued Carlson’s depiction "mocks decency."
  • Carlson aired some of the footage last week, using it to claim the events of that day, which led to roughly 1k people being charged with crimes, were "mostly peaceful chaos."
  • In his interview, McCarthy accused the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 riots of misrepresenting what happened that day, in light of many Republicans describing the events as peaceful protests.
  • McCarthy also drew a comparison between those arrested in relation to Jan. 6 and racial-justice protesters from the summer of 2020, who he said didn’t face prosecution for violent acts.
  • US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Sunday that he would "slowly roll out" to other media outlets the 40k hours of security footage from the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riots. He's so far given Fox News host Tucker Carlson exclusive access.

Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Legacy media outlets worked in concert with the Democrat-dominated Jan. 6 committee to propagate a narrative around Jan. 6 that was very different from what happened. Therefore, it was important for transparency’s sake to release the footage to Carlson so he could show the miscarriage of justice that’s been brought against many citizens. Criticism of McCarthy's rollout is absurd, as other outlets will eventually get to see the footage and draw their own conclusions.

Democratic narrative

Rolling out the footage to other media outlets won’t mitigate the damage already done by granting Carlson, a spreader of conspiracy theories related to Jan. 6, access to it to then present biased reports and disinformation to his audience. The footage belongs to every American and should have been treated as such. McCarthy has either made a tremendous error in judgment or used his power to deliberately work with GOP-friendly media to build a false narrative.

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US, Mexican Authorities Intervene on 1K Migrants Surging at Border Crossing

Facts

  • Authorities used traffic barriers, barbed wire, and agents in riot gear to hold off the migrants trying to pass through the Paso del Norte bridge. CBP said similar situations occurred at the Bridge of the Americas and the Stanton crossing.
  • Mario D’Agostino, the El Paso deputy city manager, said that the crowds had subsided and there was no breach of the border. CBP reopened the Paso del Norte bridge Sunday evening.
  • Migrants, mostly from Venezuela, have recently had trouble securing asylum appointments via a new US government app. Some of the migrants threw a barrier at the US side, while others claimed they were pepper sprayed.
  • The port of entry, which was where Pres. Biden made his first trip to the border in January, has seen a surge of illegal entries in recent months, with CBP encountering a total of more than 2.3M migrants in the fiscal year 2022.
  • The US Customs and Border Protection agency (CBP) and the Mexican military Sunday had to defend the Juarez, Mexico-El Paso, Texas border against more than 1K migrants who tried to rush the US port of entry.

Spin

Republican narrative

This incident proves the US is being practically invaded by drug cartels, who use illegal migrants to commit violence and smuggle lethal drugs across the border. Biden’s government has ignored its constitutional duty to protect the border, which is why states should allocate all resources necessary to combat the criminals crossing into their cities and terrorizing their citizens.

Democratic narrative

This incident was not part of an invasion but was caused by online miscommunication and technical problems. The migrants had been misinformed on Facebook that the port of entry was open because it was "Migrants' Day." Others were eager to cross because the asylum app's interface wouldn’t work. This was an unfortunate, avoidable incident, not a product of the administration’s border policy.

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Cyclone Freddy Hits Malawi and Mozambique, Killing Dozens

Facts

  • According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Freddy is one of the strongest ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere and could be the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in history.
  • Earlier, the "once-in-a-lifetime" storm across the Indian Ocean wreaked havoc on Mauritius and Réunion Island. At the height of Freddy's lifecycle, winds reached 160 mph (257 km per hour), the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane.
  • French weather agency Météo-France’s regional tropical cyclone monitoring center in Réunion on Monday warned that the storm would continue over the next 48 hours, expecting to weaken and exit back to sea on Wednesday.
  • On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Freddy made its second landfall on mainland Africa killing at least 66 people in Malawi and Mozambique, while 93 were injured and 16 are reportedly missing. The storm made its first landfall in late February.
  • Since its first landfall last month in Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique, Freddy has claimed the lives of at least 136 people and has caused shutdowns in all major hydropower stations of Malawi and cutoffs in power supply and phone signals in Mozambique.
  • The UN World Food Programme (WFP) reported that more than 160K people had already been affected by Freddy ahead of its second landfall in Mozambique and Malawi, following its path of destruction that hit Madagascar for a second time last week.

Spin

Narrative A

A Category 5 storm was unheard of in this region prior to 1994, and cyclone seasons have since worsened to the point that the 19 season was the worst ever recorded. Data shows that climate change will increase the likelihood that the region will take impacts from stronger storms more frequently. It is incumbent upon African nations and the international community as a whole to help this vulnerable and impoverished region prepare for and become resilient to an onslaught of climate-fueled disasters.

Narrative B

For decades, African nations have been out of the climate change emissions problem. Africa is responsible for roughly one percent of global emissions and to date its nations have contributed pennies to the climate change fight. With such a small contribution to global warming, the people of Africa will be among those suffering the most. Wealthier nations are quick to place bans and limits on the cheaper, but emissions-rich solutions. Perhaps Africa will make the giant leap to renewable sources without ever having been bogged down with dirty fossil fuels.

Narrative C

It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century will be at least 8.84% of world GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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