North Korea Claims Test of Submarine-Launched Cruise Missiles
North Korea on Sunday reportedly test-fired two submarine-launched cruise missiles off its eastern coast amid what Pyongyang claims are "frantic war preparation moves" by the US and South Korea.
According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency, the exercise was intended to confirm the weapon system's effectiveness as part of Pyongyang's "nuclear deterrent." Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, which are difficult to intercept, are not subject to UN sanctions against Pyongyang.
Meanwhile, the South Korean military confirmed the underwater launching drill but said Pyongyang's description of the launch differed from its own findings and that people should "not believe everything" North Korea claims, without revealing further details.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although the US and its allies blame Pyongyang for rising tensions, there is no doubt that Washington bears primary responsibility for having led diplomatic relations to a dead end, especially since the Biden administration switched back to a confrontational course following Donald Trump's efforts to de-escalate through negotiations. By fueling the conflict to forge closer ties with Japan and South Korea to increase its military footprint in the Indo-Pacific region, the US risks an incalculable escalation.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's time to acknowledge that the strategy of persuading Pyongyang to make concessions through a policy mix of negotiation and deterrence has failed. Instead, Washington should resort to a strategy that has already proven successful and aim to collapse the regime from within via a media campaign to educate North Koreans about the country's desolate human rights situation. A rising population is the best way to achieve complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization.
Nerd narrative
There is a 14% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Rohingya Refugee Camp Fire Was 'Planned Sabotage'
On Sunday, the seven-member probe committee into the March 5 fire at a Rohingya refugee camp in the Bangladesh district of Cox's Bazar presented its report, describing the blaze as a "planned and purposeful act of sabotage."
Investigators drew on input from scores of eyewitnesses to claim that militant groups were behind the alleged arson in a bid to establish supremacy inside the camps, with the panel finding that fire broke out in several places simultaneously.
The investigation committee added that almost 16K Rohingya refugees from more than 3K families were affected by the incident at the Balukhali Rohingya camp in Ukhiya. The blaze completely destroyed over 2.6K houses and 2.7K offices while also injuring 212 people.
Narrative A
The suffering of the Rohingya people is indescribable. The accommodations and conditions of the camp have been appalling and now the fire has destroyed countless homes and businesses, leaving people to face homelessness and uncertainty. Life can only improve in the camp if recovery includes homes made of more substantial and sturdy materials like steel and brick, and urgent health and safety needs are addressed.
Narrative B
Following the five-year mark of refugees inhabiting Bangladesh, the government is coercing the refugees to return home. The National League for Democracy-led government and the Myanmar State Administrative Council have failed to secure a safe and humane environment in the Rakhine state. The Rohingya people want nothing more than to leave the barbed-wire, subpar encampments, and return home but there are no safe options to do so.
Narrative C
This tragedy was bound to happen — and that was exactly why Bangladesh was urgently asking for help from all relevant stakeholders to achieve a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis. Bangladesh is a small, highly-populated country that already faces several other challenges, so the continued presence of more than 1M displaced people is neither reasonable nor sustainable.
Saudi Aramco Recorded a Historic $161B Profit in 2022
Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company of Saudi Arabia, reported that it earned $161B last year — the highest-ever annual profit recorded by a publicly listed company. The announcement drew immediate criticism from activists concerned about climate change.
Aramco is the latest energy firm to report record profits following soaring energy prices and bigger volumes. Earlier this year, ExxonMobil and Shell showed record 2022 results at $55.7B and $39.9B, respectively; Aramco's profit represents a 46.5% rise compared with last year.
The company's profits last year were almost triple those of Exxon and more than four times those of Shell, Chevron, and BP — all of which are performing at record levels.
Narrative A
Oil prices swung wildly throughout the globe after Russia invaded Ukraine which, as was the case with many other oil companies, led to higher profits. However, profits in and of themselves don't mean something nefarious occurred. Aramco will be able to take these record amounts and invest them in cleaner, lower-carbon energy sources in pursuit of a greener future.
Narrative B
Saudi Arabia, with a long history of human rights abuses within its own border and also in Yemen, should not be using Aramco's extraordinary profits to finance these atrocities. Instead, Aramco should fund a human rights-based transition to renewable energy.
Report: China to Host Gulf Cooperation Council-Iran Summit
The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that China is planning to host an unprecedented high-level summit between Iran and the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) later this year, as Beijing steps in regional politics.
Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping reputedly put up the idea for the gathering during a regional summit he attended in Saudi Arabia last December, with the GCC members allegedly welcoming his proposal to cool down tensions with Iran.
This report comes a few days after the PRC hosted talks that led to an unanticipated deal restoring diplomatic relations between Tehran and its regional rival Riyadh after seven years of severed ties.
Pro-China narrative
China has just proven that the US style of creating conflict to pit nations against one another is no way to achieve regional peace anywhere, let alone in the Middle East. These nations are fed up with war, and China has offered them an opportunity to slip out from under the thumb of the US and engage in legitimate, autonomous diplomacy with a different global power. This is the beginning of a new era, one in which countries don't have to cower in the face of Western might just to build economic success.
Anti-China narrative
While it does seem that China's goals in the Middle East are limited to energy and economic relations, what Beijing hasn't yet faced are the dire security problems that come with doing business in the region. Words like "common interests" and "political dialogue" are all good in theory, but only time will tell if Beijing can achieve these lofty goals in the face of rising militant groups and sporadic conflict.
US Regulators Close Another Bank as Financial Concerns Grow
On Sunday, New York bank regulators shut down Signature Bank to protect consumers and the financial network. The closing marks the third major bank collapse in less than a week.
A joint statement from the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced the closing and said that: "as with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), no losses will be borne by the taxpayer. Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected."
Signature Bank is the second well-known cryptocurrency bank to fail recently. Silvergate, valued at $4.4B, announced it would close and liquidate all assets last week. Security filings at the close of 2022 showed Signature Bank had more than $110B in assets.
Narrative A
The banking collapse last week set off more than a financial panic. Key players in the crypto, tech, and government sectors are now playing the blame game. Crypto backers and fans blame centralized banking and the feds for over-regulating, while the tech investors are pointing the finger at the bad actors of the crypto realm like Sam Bankman-Fried that resulted in the overnight collapse. One thing is for certain, it's been a hard year for both tech and crypto and the outlook isn't getting any better.
Narrative B
The US government is very concerned about protecting depositors through this banking collapse but make no mistake, a bailout for these banking institutions is not an option. Following the last financial collapse, a major government bailout took place forcing a reform to our systems and it cannot happen again. Regulators must review their options while considering that the fallout will be far-reaching and extraordinary measures should be used to provide protection and rights during this crisis. Those graces should not be extended to shareholders.
Day 383: Xi Jinping To Meet Putin, Speak To Zelenskyy
Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping is reportedly planning to speak with the Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy, after he visits Moscow next week to meet with Russian Pres. Putin in an attempt to play a more active role in facilitating the end of the year-long war.
Xi's efforts to play peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine come as China called for a ceasefire and peace talks to find a political solution to the conflict and put an end to unilateral sanctions in a 12-point proposal offered last month.
However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that military action was the only way to achieve goals in Ukraine, saying, "So far there are no preconditions for the transition of the process into a peaceful course."
Pro-establishment narrative
Beijing — which has refrained from condemning Russian military action in Ukraine or calling it an invasion, or speaking with Zelenskyy since the hostilities broke out — wants to use the opportunity to burnish its status as a global peace broker, navigate escalating competition with the US, and capitalize on the momentum from the Saudi-Iran deal. While it may cast itself as a neutral mediator, China would ensure the talks tilt in favor of Russia — its "no limits" partner.
Establishment-critical narrative
China officially regards Ukraine as a sovereign nation, while it was Ukraine’s largest trading partner before the war. If Xi Jinping calls for respecting the sovereignty of all countries and warns Moscow against escalating the conflict with nuclear weapons, his proposal to end the war must be given a chance. Given the appalling human cost of the war, the world must consider the proposal carefully instead of dismissing it outrightly. The PRC could potentially play a vital role in resolving this horrific conflict.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Yemen: Warring Sides Hold Prisoner Exchange Talks in Geneva
The UN announced on Saturday that Yemen's Saudi-backed government and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels began talks in Geneva regarding a prisoner exchange. The UN envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and the International Committee of the Red Cross have co-chaired the negotiations.
Grundberg expressed his hopes that "the parties are ready to engage in serious and forthcoming discussions to agree on releasing as many detainees as possible,” urging them to fulfill their commitments.
Yemen's official news agency reported on Monday that the Houthis released 117 inmates ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts next week, following inspections by local and judicial officials.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Houthis have continued to threaten peace and security in Yemen since they launched their coup in 2014. However, through mediation and compromise, an agreement can be made if the Houthis and their Iranian backers are willing to compromise and allow the country to enjoy peace. Saudi Arabia is surely willing to compromise and has always been willing to help bring peace to the impoverished Arab nation, but Iranian meddling has not helped the situation. Ultimately, the conflict can only end in a political settlement.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's the Yemeni government and its powerful Gulf allies who have obstructed peace in Yemen and continue to punish its citizens for standing up for themselves, but, ultimately, a political process is likely the best way to end the war at this stage in the conflict. The Houthis have shown in the past that they are willing to take good-faith actions for peace, and releasing prisoners demonstrates this desire. Hopefully, with good mediation, this war of aggression can finally come to an end.
McCarthy to ‘Slowly Roll Out’ Jan. 6 Footage to Media Outlets
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Sunday that he would "slowly roll out" to other media outlets the 40k hours of security footage from the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riots. He's so far given Fox News host Tucker Carlson exclusive access.
Carlson aired some of the footage last week, using it to claim the events of that day, which led to roughly 1k people being charged with crimes, were "mostly peaceful chaos."
Both McCarthy's decision to grant Carlson exclusive access and Carlson’s depiction of the events of that day have been criticized. Former Republican VP Mike Pence called what occurred on Jan. 6 a "disgrace" and argued Carlson’s depiction "mocks decency."
Pro-Trump narrative
Legacy media outlets worked in concert with the Democrat-dominated Jan. 6 committee to propagate a narrative around Jan. 6 that was very different from what happened. Therefore, it was important for transparency’s sake to release the footage to Carlson so he could show the miscarriage of justice that’s been brought against many citizens. Criticism of McCarthy's rollout is absurd, as other outlets will eventually get to see the footage and draw their own conclusions.
Democratic narrative
Rolling out the footage to other media outlets won’t mitigate the damage already done by granting Carlson, a spreader of conspiracy theories related to Jan. 6, access to it to then present biased reports and disinformation to his audience. The footage belongs to every American and should have been treated as such. McCarthy has either made a tremendous error in judgment or used his power to deliberately work with GOP-friendly media to build a false narrative.
US, Mexican Authorities Intervene on 1K Migrants Surging at Border Crossing
The US Customs and Border Protection agency (CBP) and the Mexican military Sunday had to defend the Juarez, Mexico-El Paso, Texas border against more than 1K migrants who tried to rush the US port of entry.
Authorities used traffic barriers, barbed wire, and agents in riot gear to hold off the migrants trying to pass through the Paso del Norte bridge. CBP said similar situations occurred at the Bridge of the Americas and the Stanton crossing.
Mario D’Agostino, the El Paso deputy city manager, said that the crowds had subsided and there was no breach of the border. CBP reopened the Paso del Norte bridge Sunday evening.
Republican narrative
This incident proves the US is being practically invaded by drug cartels, who use illegal migrants to commit violence and smuggle lethal drugs across the border. Biden’s government has ignored its constitutional duty to protect the border, which is why states should allocate all resources necessary to combat the criminals crossing into their cities and terrorizing their citizens.
Democratic narrative
This incident was not part of an invasion but was caused by online miscommunication and technical problems. The migrants had been misinformed on Facebook that the port of entry was open because it was "Migrants' Day." Others were eager to cross because the asylum app's interface wouldn’t work. This was an unfortunate, avoidable incident, not a product of the administration’s border policy.
Cyclone Freddy Hits Malawi and Mozambique, Killing Dozens
On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Freddy made its second landfall on mainland Africa killing at least 66 people in Malawi and Mozambique, while 93 were injured and 16 are reportedly missing. The storm made its first landfall in late February.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Freddy is one of the strongest ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere and could be the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in history.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) reported that more than 160K people had already been affected by Freddy ahead of its second landfall in Mozambique and Malawi, following its path of destruction that hit Madagascar for a second time last week.
Narrative A
A Category 5 storm was unheard of in this region prior to 1994, and cyclone seasons have since worsened to the point that the 19 season was the worst ever recorded. Data shows that climate change will increase the likelihood that the region will take impacts from stronger storms more frequently. It is incumbent upon African nations and the international community as a whole to help this vulnerable and impoverished region prepare for and become resilient to an onslaught of climate-fueled disasters.
Narrative B
For decades, African nations have been out of the climate change emissions problem. Africa is responsible for roughly one percent of global emissions and to date its nations have contributed pennies to the climate change fight. With such a small contribution to global warming, the people of Africa will be among those suffering the most. Wealthier nations are quick to place bans and limits on the cheaper, but emissions-rich solutions. Perhaps Africa will make the giant leap to renewable sources without ever having been bogged down with dirty fossil fuels.
Narrative C
It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century will be at least 8.84% of world GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.