Day 382: Russian Advance Stalled In Bakhmut, US Think Tank Says
Despite Russian units from the paramilitary Wagner PMC launching continued ground attacks in Bakhmut, they are finding it difficult to make any significant advances in the eastern Ukrainian city, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank covering military affairs, said late Saturday.
The ISW's report comes following claims from Wagner PMC chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that his fighters had moved closer to capturing Bakhmut. In a video post, he stated: "That's about a five-story building where the smoke comes from — the building of the city administration, the administrative center of the city. It's one kilometer and two hundred meters away."
On Sunday, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba compared the Russian forces' offensive in Bakhmut to a thief breaking into a house. In an interview with Germany's Bild newspaper, he said: "When someone breaks into your house, you don't ask yourself how long you can resist... You think what else can you do to evict him from your home and get the police to arrest him."
Pro-Russia narrative
Artyomovsk is a strategically significant transport hub and logistical center for the Ukrainian army. Ukraine's forces have already sustained huge losses — including several of their best brigades — fighting to keep control of the city and Moscow's forces now have the upper hand on the ground. Artyomovsk will be a key victory for Russia in the wider battle for control of the Donbass.
Anti-Russia narrative
Even if Russian forces do gain control of Bakhmut, it would not represent a decisive shift in the war. The development would be much more of a symbolic than strategic victory and, while Russia continues to funnel troops and resources into Bakhmut in the hope of being able to publicize some positive news about the invasion, Kyiv is making a more considered strategic assessment of its troops' position in view of the wider conflict.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1.8% chance that Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Rohingya Refugee Camp Fire Was 'Planned Sabotage'
On Sunday, the seven-member probe committee into the March 5 fire at a Rohingya refugee camp in the Bangladesh district of Cox's Bazar presented its report, describing the blaze as a "planned and purposeful act of sabotage."
Investigators drew on input from scores of eyewitnesses to claim that militant groups were behind the alleged arson in a bid to establish supremacy inside the camps, with the panel finding that fire broke out in several places simultaneously.
The investigation committee added that almost 16K Rohingya refugees from more than 3K families were affected by the incident at the Balukhali Rohingya camp in Ukhiya. The blaze completely destroyed over 2.6K houses and 2.7K offices while also injuring 212 people.
Narrative A
The suffering of the Rohingya people is indescribable. The accommodations and conditions of the camp have been appalling and now the fire has destroyed countless homes and businesses, leaving people to face homelessness and uncertainty. Life can only improve in the camp if recovery includes homes made of more substantial and sturdy materials like steel and brick, and urgent health and safety needs are addressed.
Narrative B
Following the five-year mark of refugees inhabiting Bangladesh, the government is coercing the refugees to return home. The National League for Democracy-led government and the Myanmar State Administrative Council have failed to secure a safe and humane environment in the Rakhine state. The Rohingya people want nothing more than to leave the barbed-wire, subpar encampments, and return home but there are no safe options to do so.
Narrative C
This tragedy was bound to happen — and that was exactly why Bangladesh was urgently asking for help from all relevant stakeholders to achieve a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis. Bangladesh is a small, highly-populated country that already faces several other challenges, so the continued presence of more than 1M displaced people is neither reasonable nor sustainable.
Saudi Aramco Recorded a Historic $161B Profit in 2022
Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company of Saudi Arabia, reported that it earned $161B last year — the highest-ever annual profit recorded by a publicly listed company. The announcement drew immediate criticism from activists concerned about climate change.
Aramco is the latest energy firm to report record profits following soaring energy prices and bigger volumes. Earlier this year, ExxonMobil and Shell showed record 2022 results at $55.7B and $39.9B, respectively; Aramco's profit represents a 46.5% rise compared with last year.
The company's profits last year were almost triple those of Exxon and more than four times those of Shell, Chevron, and BP — all of which are performing at record levels.
Narrative A
Oil prices swung wildly throughout the globe after Russia invaded Ukraine which, as was the case with many other oil companies, led to higher profits. However, profits in and of themselves don't mean something nefarious occurred. Aramco will be able to take these record amounts and invest them in cleaner, lower-carbon energy sources in pursuit of a greener future.
Narrative B
Saudi Arabia, with a long history of human rights abuses within its own border and also in Yemen, should not be using Aramco's extraordinary profits to finance these atrocities. Instead, Aramco should fund a human rights-based transition to renewable energy.
Report: France Challenging Russia as World's Second Biggest Arms Exporter
According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — entitled 'Trends in International Arms Transfers' — France is set to become the world's second-largest arms exporter in the coming decade, as it has recently narrowed its share gap to Russia's exports.
Paris has reportedly expanded its participation in the global arms trade from 7.1% in 2013-2017 to 11% in 2018-2022, due to rising exports to Asia Pacific and the Middle East. France is also one of the biggest suppliers to NATO members, along with the US and South Korea.
Meanwhile, Russia — which has long ranked only behind the US in its share of global weapons exports — saw its share drop from 22% to 16% over the past five years. The decrease began in 2014, when Moscow first supported the secession of parts of Ukraine and the downturn has since been aggravated by the invasion in 2022.
Pro-establishment narrative
The thundering success of the French defense industry means, not only that the country has achieved its long-sought goal of strategic autonomy, but also that it has expanded the country's share of global arms sales and, consequently, its diplomatic influence. In the face of anticipated economic slowdown, this key sector must be treated as a national priority.
Establishment-critical narrative
While those boasting France's weapons sales claim that the country would take advantage of so-called arms diplomacy to justify exports to authoritarian regimes — that may even use French-made weapons against civilians — Paris has failed to turn the assertion into a reality. France is not achieving any strategic autonomy but rather disturbingly becoming more dependent on autocratic, unscrupulous clients.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 2.19% of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
PRC Parliament Approves Changes to Speed Up 'Emergency' Laws
According to Xinhua news agency, China's parliament on Friday approved changes to its Legislation Law, which dictates how laws are enacted, that will allow emergency legislation to be passed after a single review session.
The change occurred during the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. NPC deputies also approved the national economic and social development plan for 2023 and the central budget for 2023.
The powers granted by the amendment are to be applied only to the roughly 170-member NPC Standing Committee, the highest body of the national parliament. Readouts from a delegates' meeting called the decision an "important measure" to "improve" the quality and efficiency of legislation in China.
Pro-China narrative
This amendment will help ensure that the drafting and updating of laws will bring PRC governance into the modern, coherent, and forward-looking 21st century. Rather than abide by the wishes of lobbyists as is the case in other countries, it will increase parliament's efficiency and capacity to strengthen moral and ethical standards in China. Laws exist to serve the people, and the decision to streamline this process makes compelling sense.
Anti-China narrative
Pres. Xi Jinping is a merciless man who has ruthlessly cracked down on civil society, academic freedom, and human rights in China. Parliament is only a rubber-stamping process and its legitimacy and competency cannot be taken seriously. While the leader of China and its Communist Party continues to make many problems for his country across the world, Xi has further cemented his illegitimate authority over the domestic legislative process.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Xi Jinping will continue leading China in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Yemen: Warring Sides Hold Prisoner Exchange Talks in Geneva
The UN announced on Saturday that Yemen's Saudi-backed government and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels began talks in Geneva regarding a prisoner exchange. The UN envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and the International Committee of the Red Cross have co-chaired the negotiations.
Grundberg expressed his hopes that "the parties are ready to engage in serious and forthcoming discussions to agree on releasing as many detainees as possible,” urging them to fulfill their commitments.
Yemen's official news agency reported on Monday that the Houthis released 117 inmates ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts next week, following inspections by local and judicial officials.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Houthis have continued to threaten peace and security in Yemen since they launched their coup in 2014. However, through mediation and compromise, an agreement can be made if the Houthis and their Iranian backers are willing to compromise and allow the country to enjoy peace. Saudi Arabia is surely willing to compromise and has always been willing to help bring peace to the impoverished Arab nation, but Iranian meddling has not helped the situation. Ultimately, the conflict can only end in a political settlement.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's the Yemeni government and its powerful Gulf allies who have obstructed peace in Yemen and continue to punish its citizens for standing up for themselves, but, ultimately, a political process is likely the best way to end the war at this stage in the conflict. The Houthis have shown in the past that they are willing to take good-faith actions for peace, and releasing prisoners demonstrates this desire. Hopefully, with good mediation, this war of aggression can finally come to an end.
McCarthy to ‘Slowly Roll Out’ Jan. 6 Footage to Media Outlets
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Sunday that he would "slowly roll out" to other media outlets the 40k hours of security footage from the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riots. He's so far given Fox News host Tucker Carlson exclusive access.
Carlson aired some of the footage last week, using it to claim the events of that day, which led to roughly 1k people being charged with crimes, were "mostly peaceful chaos."
Both McCarthy's decision to grant Carlson exclusive access and Carlson’s depiction of the events of that day have been criticized. Former Republican VP Mike Pence called what occurred on Jan. 6 a "disgrace" and argued Carlson’s depiction "mocks decency."
Pro-Trump narrative
Legacy media outlets worked in concert with the Democrat-dominated Jan. 6 committee to propagate a narrative around Jan. 6 that was very different from what happened. Therefore, it was important for transparency’s sake to release the footage to Carlson so he could show the miscarriage of justice that’s been brought against many citizens. Criticism of McCarthy's rollout is absurd, as other outlets will eventually get to see the footage and draw their own conclusions.
Democratic narrative
Rolling out the footage to other media outlets won’t mitigate the damage already done by granting Carlson, a spreader of conspiracy theories related to Jan. 6, access to it to then present biased reports and disinformation to his audience. The footage belongs to every American and should have been treated as such. McCarthy has either made a tremendous error in judgment or used his power to deliberately work with GOP-friendly media to build a false narrative.
Texas Judge to Consider Banning Abortion Pill in US
US District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk is set to hear arguments on Wednesday over whether mifepristone, an abortion pill, should be banned nationwide. The pill was granted approval over two decades ago.
When used with a second pill the drug is the most common method of abortion in the US. Kacsmaryk, an appointee of former-Pres. Trump, will hear arguments in Amarillo from the Alliance for Defending Freedom — a pro-life Christian group — on behalf of several anti-abortion groups and physicians.
The group claims that the FDA exceeded its regulatory authority in approving the drug and has removed acceptable safeguards surrounding its distribution and use. These include dosage and route of administration amendments in 2016 as well as lifting an in-person dispensing requirement allowing pills to be mailed in 2021.
Left narrative
The Texas lawsuit is weak, as mifepristone has been proven safe and effective for years. The drug, if anything, has been overly regulated since its approval in 2000. The attempt to ban its use highlights the extreme and dangerous lengths that anti-abortion activists will go to attack civil rights. In a post-Roe v. Wade world, such assaults on abortion will continue unless states and Congress take a stand.
Right narrative
While mifepristone has been advertised and sold to women as a fundamental need, in reality, the drug is a synthetic steroid that causes healthy reproductive systems to malfunction. With deadly infection risks and daunting adverse effects, it is little wonder that the Texas lawsuit is questioning the legitimacy of the FDA's approval.
Nerd narrative
There is a 4% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Dow Jones Falls as Credit Suisse Shares Plummet
Credit Suisse shares hit a record low on Wednesday as European banks reel amid investor concerns in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse last week. The bank’s shares fell by as much as 30.8%, driving a 7% fall in the European banking index.
The US stock market also took a massive hit as concerns about the global banking industry deepened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 406 points, or 1.3%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1%.
The Swiss bank’s losses came after its largest investor, the Saudi National Bank (SNB), said it couldn't provide Credit Suisse with more financial assistance. The Saudi lender acquired a nearly 10% stake in Credit Suisse last year, which it can't surpass due to regulatory constraints.
Establishment-critical narrative
The 2023 financial crisis is here, and it is not surprising that we are in this situation. Unfortunately, government officials are repeating the same mistakes of 2008 by bailing out failed banks and creating programs that will allow banks to acquire capital artificially. We are just at the beginning of a new collapse, and people’s money isn't safe in this financial environment.
Pro-establishment narrative
While there are certainly causes for concern regarding the economy, and banking sector specifically, we are not experiencing a style collapse, and failed banks are not being bailed out. Regulators are doing their best to secure the funds of depositors while not repeating the mistakes of the past.
Whistleblower Doctor Who Alleged China's SARS Cover-up Dies
Jiang Yanyong, a former PRC military surgeon who blew the whistle on Chinese authorities' alleged cover-up of the 2003 SARS [SARS-CoV-1] epidemic, died of pneumonia on Saturday at the age of 91.
A source who knows Jiang’s family said the surgeon tested positive for COVID in January, but it is unknown if he died from the virus.
Yanyong gained notoriety after he sent a letter in April 2003 — accusing the Chinese government of understating the severity of the SARS outbreak. After Chinese media ignored Yanyong’s email of the letter, Western outlets leaked it to the public.
Anti-China narrative
China covered up the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in 2003, which cost thousands of lives. Afterward, China used its failures in addressing that crisis to create a state of complete control when the COVID [SARS-CoV-2] pandemic erupted in 2020. Instead of apologizing for its mistakes, China ignored any responsibility while setting up gruesome propaganda that restricted basic rights during the most recent pandemic.
Pro-China narrative
China has been on the cutting edge of fighting viral diseases for two decades, and its scientists have learned from the SARS outbreak of 2003 to improve its efforts against COVID. PRC doctors have expedited processes and created technology that can detect and fight against viruses coronaviruses. While deadly outbreaks are tragic, China is learning as information evolves to make the world safer.