16 March 2023

Daily Newsletter

Libya: Missing Uranium Recovered, Say Eastern Forces

Facts

  • According to Grossi's confidential one-page statement, the discovery was made on Tuesday after inspections initially scheduled for last year were postponed due to the country's bleak security situation.
  • IAEA Director Rafael Grossi informed the organization's member states that the organization's inspectors found that ten barrels of natural uranium in the form of uranium ore concentrate were no longer present at the undisclosed location "as previously declared."
  • In 2009, the last enriched uranium was reportedly removed from Libya. What remained was so-called yellowcake uranium, of which the UN estimated in 2013 that 6.4K barrels were stockpiled in the town of Sabha in the country's lawless southwest.
  • Ten drums of uranium ore that had been reported missing in Libya were recovered on Thursday near the border with Chad, according to armed forces in the country's east. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says it is "actively working to verify" the reports.
  • The IAEA first reported on Wednesday that about 2.5 tons of natural uranium went missing from a Libyan site not controlled by the interim government, prompting nuclear safety concerns.
  • The nuclear watchdog expressed concern that the missing uranium could pose a radiological and "nuclear security" risk and announced further steps to determine the circumstances of the uranium's removal and its "current location."
  • Under then-leader Muammar Gaddafi, Libya in late 2003 abandoned its nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons program and pledged to limit its ballistic missile stockpile to those with a range of up to 300 km (186 miles).

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While the recovery of the missing uranium is a major relief, this incident is a reminder that the country's security situation must finally be rectified. The best way to achieve this would be to hold the overdue elections this year to unite a divided country. The various factions must embark on the path of democracy for the good of Libya, and the West can be counted on to support this process. Libyans have freed themselves from the Gaddafi dictatorship, and they deserve a democratic and peaceful nation.

Establishment-critical narrative

The deeper cause underlying the conditions in which uranium can simply disappear ultimately stems from NATO's 2011 military assault on the country with Africa's largest known oil reserves. Though Libyans previously enjoyed a comparatively high standard of living, as well as safety in their own country, the North African nation plunged into chaos after its "liberation" and virtually turned into a failed state. It is the West that is to blame for the security risks resulting from Libya's fragmentation.

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Myanmar Officials Visit Bangladesh Refugee Camp for Repatriation Project

Facts

  • A 22-member delegation from Myanmar arrived on Wednesday in Teknaf, Cox's Bazar to verify the information about Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh's camps that are enrolled for repatriation and willing to return to the Rakhine State.
  • Myanmar and Bangladesh are reputedly working to start repatriation before the monsoon season gets underway in the next few months. Conditions for the Muslim majority Rohingya in Rakhine have allegedly improved.
  • Nearly a million Rohingya people have sought refuge in southeast Bangladesh since the Myanmar military allegedly launched a devastating campaign against the country's Muslim minority six years ago.
  • Reuters reported, citing a Bangladesh official, that 1,140 Rohingya refugees are to be repatriated under this pilot project, with 711 cases having already been cleared. It is unclear when they would be going home.
  • The Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen, is reportedly hopeful that the first wave of displaced Rohingya would return to Myanmar soon. At least 348 Rohingya refugees died at sea last year trying to escape poor conditions in Bangladesh and reach Malaysia and Indonesia.
  • This visit comes a few days after Bangladesh investigators stated that the blaze on March 5 in Cox's Bazar, which left tens of thousands of Rohingya refugees homeless, was a planned act of sabotage carried out by militant groups seeking to "dominate" the camps.

Spin

Narrative A

This is the first and most promising move to solve the Rohingya crisis, which has been disrupting South and Southeast Asia for six years. Bangladesh has long requested Myanmar to speed up the repatriation process but both COVID and the army's takeover disrupted the process. Because the situation is calmer in Rakhine now, this is the right time for repatriation to start.

Narrative B

Though every refugee must be allowed to voluntarily repatriate, conditions in Myanmar's Rakhine State are not auspicious for the sustainable return and reintegration of Rohingya refugees yet. The military junta is implementing this pilot project due to pressure from the international community, particularly from China, not out of its true goodwill. Discriminatory policies against Rohingya people are sadly likely to continue.

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US May Ban TikTok Without ByteDance Stake Sale

Facts

  • According to TikTok executives, ByteDance has 60% of its shares owned by global investors, 20% owned by its employees, and another 20% owned by its owners. However, the owners' shares carry outsized voting rights.
  • In response to growing bipartisan concerns, TikTok has committed to a wide-reaching $1.5B plan called "Project Texas" that would enact a stronger firewall between TikTok and employees of its Beijing parent company.
  • On Wednesday, TikTok spokesperson Brooke Oberwetter stated, “If protecting national security is the objective, divestment doesn’t solve the problem: a change in ownership would not impose any new restrictions on data flows or access.”
  • The Biden admin. has demanded ByteDance divest its stake in the video app TikTok or face a possible US ban. The move is the most dramatic in a series of recent steps taken by American officials and legislators concerned that user data could potentially be passed on to the PRC.
  • This policy change represents a major shift for the Biden administration, which has come under fire from some Republicans who allege that the admin. hasn't taken a tough enough stance on the perceived security threat posed by the app.
  • TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew will travel to Washington, DC, next week to testify before Congress and address concerns about the app's links to the Chinese Communist Party. On March 23, he's expected to appear before a House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

TikTok developer ByteDance has come under increased scrutiny from governments and regulators over fears that Beijing could gain access to the company's database — something that could be used to potentially harvest users' data to spy on Western nations to advance China's interests. This dramatic move by the Biden administration demanding divestment or a nationwide ban on TikTok is based on well-founded security concerns.

Pro-China narrative

The US government has not presented any meaningful evidence that the TikTok app poses a threat to national security. Instead, it has attempted to spread misinformation and unreasonably suppress legitimate private firms. The US crackdown on TikTok is nothing less than xenophobic bullying. They should stop the harassment and start providing a fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory business environment for foreign companies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that the US will ban Tiktok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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South Korea, Japan Renew Ties At Tokyo 'Fence-Mending' Summit

Facts

  • Ahead of the summit and as a result of a three-day dialogue between their industry ministries, Japan also removed the 2019 export restrictions imposed on some key materials to South Korea, while Seoul withdrew its complaint filed with the World Trade Organizations.
  • Japanese broadcaster NHK reported that the two leaders are preparing to announce the resumption of a bilateral security dialogue, which has been suspended since 2018, after Yoon stated he expects to revitalize security cooperation.
  • Security proposals came just hours after North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the second time this month, reportedly falling into waters west of Japan.
  • South Korean Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol on Thursday met with his Japanese counterpart, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in Tokyo for a summit to repair historically strained relations.
  • The first formal meeting between the leaders of the two countries since 2011 comes as Seoul and Tokyo seek to deepen coordination on regional challenges as they perceive threats from North Korea and China.
  • They agreed to restore "shuttle diplomacy" and expand cooperation in several areas, such as Seoul's proposal to settle a dispute over wartime labor and Kishida vowing to adhere to the 1998 declaration expressing "deep remorse" for Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula.

Spin

Narrative A

Historical disputes between Seoul and Tokyo will not cease overnight as they are rooted deeply in both nations, so this summit means little in the improvement of their relationship. If Yoon insists on bowing to the US-Japan strategy of creating a strong, unified front against China, he will risk infuriating domestic public opinion and sacrificing his country's national interests only to serve as a pawn in the destabilization of Asia.

Narrative B

Despite their long-standing controversies, Japan and South Korea have no other option than to ease tensions as they face mounting threats from North Korea and a rising China. The two like-minded democratic nations have many incentives to deepen their cooperation, which is vital to counter the growing influence of violent, authoritarian countries in the region.

Nerd narrative

There's a 72% chance that the Japan Self-Defense Forces will have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Shows Russian Jet Footage in Black Sea Drone Encounter

Facts

  • According to US officials who spoke to CNN, Russia had already reached the crash site in an attempt to recover the drone for intelligence gathering. The US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby would not confirm the development, but said the US had taken action that, "made it impossible for them to be able to glean anything of intelligence value off the remnants of that drone."
  • Elsewhere, a large fire was reported at the offices of Russia's intelligence and security service, the FSB, in the city of Rostov-on-Don on Thursday. Dozens of fires have taken place at shopping malls, ammunition depots, and other storage facilities inside Russia in the past year — a report from investigative journalist Jack Murphy, citing US officials, has suggested these were coordinated by the CIA as part of a covert sabotage campaign.
  • Meanwhile, Poland announced the first details of its intentions to send MiG-29 warplanes to Ukraine on Thursday, with government spokesperson Piotr Muller saying: "We will keep the Russian front from out borders at all times." It came shortly after the nation's defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak stated that his country's counterintelligence service had "dismantled" a Russian spy ring operating within Poland.
  • On the ground, Ukrainian officials said one civilian was killed and 11 more were injured in Russian attacks on the Donetsk region in the past day. Three civilians were reported injured in the Kherson region, while Russian attacks were also recorded in the regions of Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia without further reports of civilian casualties. Pro-Russia officials said four civilians were injured in Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk over the same time period.
  • On Thursday, the US European Command released declassified video footage from the encounter between a US surveillance drone and Russian fighter jets over the Black Sea earlier in the week.
  • The 42-second clip — part of an encounter that the Pentagon said lasted between 30 and 40 minutes — shows a Russian Su-27 jet approach the back of the US MQ-9 Reaper drone before dumping fuel as it passes over. In another portion of the clip, a Russian jet repeats the action, this time closer to the drone and seemingly disrupting the video transmission. Once video returns, damage can be seen to the drone's propeller, supporting the US case that there was contact between the two aircrafts.
  • The incident caused the drone to crash in the Black Sea and prompted a call between US Defense Sec. Austin Lloyd and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday — their first contact since last October. In a briefing after the meeting, Lloyd said: "We take any potential for escalation very seriously. And that’s why I believe it’s important to keep the lines of communication open."

Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

This collision over the Black Sea happened because the West has repeatedly refused to take action to avert dangerous mid-air incidents. Despite the attempts of numerous Russian delegations to address the potential for risky proximity between aircraft — especially around the borders of the alliance and Russia — western countries have pointedly ignored the warnings. The US purposely flew into this restricted zone, but Russian fighter jets avoided escalating the situation by refusing to engage their weapons.

Anti-Russia narrative

The Russian fighter pilots deliberately made a US drone unflyable by recklessly crashing into the MQ-9. The aggressive actions taken against the drone — which was merely carrying out routine operations in the airspace — forced US officials to deliberately crash the object. Moscow's denial of any culpability in this incident is ludicrous.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that there will be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US: Maternal Mortality Hits Highest Level Since 1965

Facts

  • Furthermore, the report found the maternal mortality rate among Black women was 2.6 times the rate for White women, at 69.9 deaths per 100K live births.
  • The dramatic rise, which was compounded by COVID, has pushed the maternal mortality rate to 33 deaths per 100K live births – the highest since 1965.
  • The leading causes of pregnancy-related deaths in the US include mental health conditions, cardiovascular conditions, hemorrhage, and hypertension.
  • The maternal mortality rate in the US rose 40% to 1,205 deaths in 2021, compared with 861 deaths in 2020 and 754 deaths in 2019, according to a report released Thursday by the National Center for Health Statistics.
  • The report also showed that the maternal mortality rate increased with the mother’s age. Among women 40 years and older there was a death rate of 138.5 per 100K live births, 6.8 times higher than for women under 25.
  • The US maternal mortality rate in 2021 was more than triple the rate of Canada, eight times the rate of the UK, and nearly 11 times the rate of Australia.

Spin

Narrative A

COVID had a dramatic and tragic effect on maternal mortality rates, but we cannot let that fact obscure the reality that structural racism, systemic discrimination, and health inequities compounded the crisis. Until issues related to income inequality, family planning, education, and racial injustice are addressed, pregnancy-related deaths will continue to soar in the country and disproportionately effect the most vulnerable.

Narrative B

These results are disheartening, but not surprising considering the myriad of external facts causing them such as the COVID pandemic and the influence of higher rates of diabetes and obesity. While the US must address these crucial issues, pregnant women also have agency and could take steps to lower their mortality risk, including by maintaining a healthy weight, eating a balanced diet, and ceasing the use of any substances.

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US Charges Chinese Businessman Guo Wengui With Fraud

Facts

  • Authorities have seized $634M in alleged criminal proceeds from Guo, who also goes by the names Miles Kwok and Ho Wan Kwok. The amount includes a $389M seizure in September 2022 from accounts tied to Silvergate Capital, a crypto-focused company that shut down last week.
  • Guo has agreed to detention while his attorney prepares a bail proposal. He's scheduled to next appear in court on April 4.
  • Guo Wengui, a Chinese businessman based in New York, has been charged by US authorities with leading a billion-dollar fraud scheme alongside his business partner Kin Ming Je — a dual Hong Kong-British citizen who's not yet in custody.
  • Guo, a critic of the Chinese government, left China in 2014. He sought asylum in the US in 2017, claiming he was being persecuted by the CCP for exposing corruption within China's leadership.
  • Guo, an associate of former Pres. Donald Trump White House advisor Steve Bannon, allegedly promised outsized investment returns via his company, GTV Media. He reportedly used some of the funds to purchase personal items, including a New Jersey mansion, a $37M yacht, and a $3.5M Ferrari.
  • He’s been charged with 11 criminal counts, including securities fraud, wire fraud, and concealment of money laundering. He was arrested Wednesday and pleaded not guilty in a Manhattan federal court.

Spin

Democratic narrative

From obscure and inconsistent names to wild accusations against other Chinese dissidents and now this latest scandal, there's no telling where Guo's allegiance really lies. What is clear, however, is that Bannon-comrade Guo is the latest indication that Trump's MAGA circle is surrounded by corruption.

Pro-Trump narrative

If found guilty, Guo should undoubtedly bear the brunt of the US justice system, but politics should be left out of this case. Guo is connected to a range of politicians, including former British PM Tony Blair of the left-wing Labour party, and assuming guilt by a distant association is dangerous.

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Israel Army: Bomber Suspected of Coming From Lebanon Killed

Facts

  • Israel and Hezbollah have a long history of animosity. Following Israel's 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, launched an armed campaign against Israeli forces. Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000 but fought another war with Hezbollah in 2006. More recently, Israel has struck targets associated with Iran and Hezbollah in Syria since the onset of its civil war in 2011.
  • Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated on Thursday that those involved in the attack would be found and held accountable, saying, "we will find the right timing and appropriate manner to hit back."
  • The alleged attacker placed a roadside bomb that seriously injured a driver near Megiddo Junction in northern Israel on Monday. The military said that he was stopped at a checkpoint soon after before being shot and killed, and was allegedly wearing an explosive vest and was armed.
  • The Israeli army announced that an armed man suspected of entering the country via Lebanon blew up a car before being killed by Israeli forces not long after, raising the risk of renewed tensions with Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite armed group and political party.
  • The Israeli military believed the attacker came from Lebanon because they considered the bomb's design to be unusual and said it didn't appear to be similar to explosive devices used by Palestinian groups in recent months.
  • Though the incident occurred on Monday, it wasn't officially announced until Wednesday, as the Israeli security establishment held several meetings over two days under a gag order. In response to the attack, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu cut a visit to Germany short.

Spin

Pro-Israel

Israel is facing an Iranian-backed axis of terror. Though the explosive used raises many questions, and Hezbollah might not have directly launched the attack, that doesn't mean Iran wasn't involved. Hamas and PIJ are both backed by Iran, and both groups have increased their activity in the northern West Bank, close to northern Israel. However, this could still be a terrorist attack unrelated to Iran, as a thorough investigation needs to be carried out.

Pro-Palestine

It's unclear if Hezbollah was involved or not, but either way, attacks like this are a symptom of Israel's occupation of Palestine, as well as areas in Lebanon and Syria. Violence is a terrible thing, but the violence of occupation is an everyday occurrence that is far greater than any attack like this.

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Dutch Farmers Protest Party Wins Victory in Provincial Election

Facts

  • A first exit poll projected BBB won 15 out of 75 seats in the Senate, which has the power to block legislation agreed upon in the Lower House of parliament. Meanwhile, the VVD is forecast to drop from 12 to 10 seats.
  • Marking the largest turnout in years, an estimated 57.5% of voters showed up to the election, with the environmentally-focused Greens and center-left Labor Party coalition also winning 15 Senate seats.
  • The BBB party, or BoerBurgerBeweging, soared to national prominence after widespread protests against the government’s climate and environment policies, and it's set to win more Senate seats than PM Mark Rutte’s conservative VVD party.
  • The BBB was founded in 2019 by agricultural journalist Caroline van der Plas, and it has already become the Netherlands' third-largest political force. Many of the party’s supporters are protesting Rutte’s plan to halve nitrogen emissions by 2030.
  • The election results cast doubt on Rutte’s plan to slash nitrogen emissions, and the PM will face difficulties passing legislation through an opposition Senate. The next national elections are scheduled for 2025.
  • The upstart Farmer-citizen movement (BBB) is set to become the largest party in the upper house of parliament following Dutch provincial elections on Wednesday.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

This is a big win for the BBB — and the Dutch people in general — which has fought back against globalist tyranny. While the EU shills in the Dutch government tried to destroy Dutch farming and essentially confiscate land illegally, Dutch voters have said “enough is enough” and stood up for their rights, proving that people can still stand together and send a shocking blow to the establishment.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Dutch elections are a scary reminder of how conspiracy theories and anti-establishment rhetoric can infect national, and even global, politics. Dutch extremists pedaled dangerous ideas like the “great replacement” theory as well as climate change denial to rally voters. Unfortunately, this type of strategy will likely be echoed in other parts of the world.

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GOP Governors Align to Oppose 'ESG' Investing

Facts

  • Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming have joined Florida in the announcement.
  • DeSantis has been vocal about his opposition to ESG — even writing in his recent book that it should be a government priority to take “crippling” action against it.
  • ESG is an acronym for prioritizing environmental, social, and governance when investing — a philosophy that has drawn much criticism from conservatives in the US.
  • In the press release, the governors decried ESG for “destabilizing the American economy and the global financial system” and insist that major asset managers should do all they can to “maximize shareholder value” rather than focusing on “woke ideology.”
  • Nineteen GOP governors, led by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, on Thursday announced in a joint press release their opposition to an investing strategy known as ESG ["Environmental, Social and Governance"].
  • Pres. Joe Biden’s Department of Labor has a rule that encourages investors to include ESG in their investment decisions. Congress this month passed a bill to end the rule, but Biden is expected to veto it.

Spin

Republican narrative

ESG is a dangerous menace to America, as it weaponizes investments against citizens through woke ideology. Leaders and residents of all freedom-loving states should do whatever’s necessary to prevent its harmful proliferation.

Democratic narrative

This is just another misguided shot in the Republicans’ war against so-called woke culture. ESG investing has been around for decades, and it aims to hold to account investors and managers of companies that have negative health or environmental impacts on society.

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