Iran Agrees to Stop Arming Houthis in Yemen
As part of a China-brokered deal to re-establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran has agreed to halt covert weapons shipments to its Houthi allies in Yemen, according to US and Saudi officials. The development is being hailed as a positive step towards ending one of the region's longest-running civil wars.
In 2014, Iranian-linked Houthi rebels seized the capital of Yemen, Sanaa. Then, in 2015, neighboring Saudi Arabia led a military intervention to support Yemeni government forces. The war has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions. A truce introduced in April 2022 expired in October without the Yemeni government and Houthis coming to an agreement.
Saudi Arabia has invested hundreds of billions of dollars into the military campaign in Yemen, but is now looking to de-escalate the conflict amid efforts to rebrand and attract investors under the Vision 2030 plan.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Houthis have continued to threaten peace and security in Yemen since they launched their coup in 2014. However, through mediation, an agreement can be made if the Houthis and their Iranian backers are willing to compromise. Saudi Arabia has always been willing to help bring peace to the impoverished Arab nation, but Iranian meddling has not helped the situation. Ultimately, the conflict can only be resolved through a political settlement, but it remains to be seen what role the Yemeni government will play in peace talks.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's the Yemeni government and its powerful Gulf allies who have obstructed peace in Yemen and who continue to punish its citizens for standing up for themselves. A political process like this between Saudi Arabia and Iran is likely the best way to end the war at this stage in the conflict. This is a window of opportunity for Washington to end support for the brutal Saudi war of aggression on Yemen and instead offer more robust humanitarian aid.
Lebanon’s Central Bank Chief Appears Before Corruption Hearing
European investigators on Thursday questioned Riad Salameh, the Governor of Lebanon's Central Bank [BDL], probing his personal wealth and allegedly suspicious financial transfers abroad. Salameh has held his post for three decades, making him one of the world's longest-serving central bank governors.
The 72-year-old, who claims he is innocent, is being investigated alongside his brother Raja in Lebanon and at least five European countries regarding accusations that he stole hundreds of millions of dollars and laundered some of the proceeds abroad.
Salameh was originally supposed to be questioned on Wednesday but refused to attend, arguing that the presence of the European investigators was “in conflict with [Lebanon’s] national sovereignty.”
Narrative A
Though Salameh is surely guilty of many things, it is obvious that he is being used as a scapegoat by Lebanon's entrenched political elite. Up until Lebanon's financial collapse in 2019, both Lebanese and European leaders considered Salameh a financial magician, lauding him for his economic policies. Now that the Lebanese system has failed, all the blame has been put on Salameh, when, in reality, it is Lebanon's entire political class that is at fault.
Narrative B
Riad Salameh is an American agent who works only for the US embassy in Lebanon. So many facets of Lebanon's current crisis are based on Western meddling, such as sanctions. It is well known that Salameh is protected by the Americans, as they try to blame Hezbollah and the resistance for Lebanon's decline, when, in reality, it is the West that has inflicted this suffering on the Lebanese people.
Narrative C
Ultimately, Salameh, though corrupt, is a highly skilled political actor. Though he has often portrayed himself to the West as a victim of Hezbollah and Iran's meddling in the country, in reality, he has played both sides for his own personal gain. Though the Americans have indicated their dissatisfaction with him, most recently by putting sanctions on Hassan Moukalled, over alleged financial ties to Hezbollah, ultimately he is still in the game.
Report: At Least 22 Killed in Alleged Massacre at Myanmar Monastery
According to a doctor's post-mortem report, at least 22 people, including three monks, were killed at a Buddhist monastery in Myanmar's southern Shan state on Saturday as local insurgent groups and Mynammar's junta accused each other of carrying out a massacre of civilians.
The post-mortem report by Dr. Ye Zaw, who is part of the National Unity Government — an exiled civil administration formed since the 2021 coup — said automatic weapons were likely used at close range, and the victims were civilians since "there were no military uniforms, equipment, and ammunition found on the rest of the bodies."
Photos and videos provided by the armed insurgent group Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) appeared to show at least 21 bodies with multiple gunshot wounds around the Nan Nein Monastery, with its walls dotted with bullet holes.
Narrative A
The international community must remain firm against Myanmar's illegal and illegitimate military rule, imposing further coordinated sanctions on the junta and supporting the pro-democracy shadow National Unity Government. As long as the nationwide human rights, humanitarian, and economic crises from the coup remain and the junta continues to legitimize its indiscriminate violence against civilians, a peaceful and democratic transition is impossible.
Narrative B
Due to its commitment to restoring perpetual peace and stability in Myanmar, the junta has no option other than to use lethal force to fight armed insurgents and terrorists trying to seize power. Exactly what happened on Saturday morning remains unclear as there are no eyewitnesses, which is why accusing Myanmar's military of committing crimes against humanity is unacceptable.
First Republic Secures $30B Rescue From 11 Banks
First Republic Bank on Thursday received a lifeline from 11 of America's largest banks, who pledged to deposit $30B in order to shore up lenders' concerns at a time of crisis for the US banking industry, including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week.
Following the two collapses, and over fears First Republic could be next in line because many of its deposits exceed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) threshold of $250K – meaning they’re uninsured – First Republic said it secured $70B in liquidity Sunday. However, that did little to calm the nerves of investors or creditors.
By Thursday, First Republic's shares plummeted 36% as depositors continued to withdraw their funds and send them elsewhere. However, as news broke of a further liquidity injection, the stock rose 10% to $34.35 by market close.
Pro-establishment narrative
A joint effort between the federal government and the US's largest banks has done well to avoid a run on banks with this lifeline for First Republic and other swift measures. The US banking sector, however, isn’t out of the woods yet, and it’ll take more government action to prevent a wider crash.
Establishment-critical narrative
Amid the precarious financial environment, banks should have taken proactive measures to mitigate their losses, such as selling off their long-term bonds when they had a chance. It wasn’t a secret that the Fed intended to raise the yields on treasury bonds, yet many banks — such as Silicon Valley Bank — did nothing to shore up their vulnerable balance sheets.
EU Countries Seek to Weaken Livestock Emission Limits
Member states of the European Union agreed on Thursday to attempt to curb the number of farms covered by proposed rules to slash pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from livestock, despite criticism from some countries.
The EU has failed to significantly reduce the methane emissions produced by livestock for more than a decade. EU member states and the European Parliament plan to negotiate more stringent limits on farms and factories for waste disposal and other polluting gases like sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.
Last year, the European Commission proposed that all cattle, pig, and poultry farms with over 150 livestock units should face new limits on their emissions — around 184K of Europe's largest farms. Cattle would be included in this first-time regulation and it would increase the number of poultry and pig farms covered by the directive from the present 20K.
Pro-establishment narrative
The EU's Industrial Emissions Directive aims at reducing pollution from cattle, pigs, and poultry factory farms and is essential to tackling the climate and biodiversity crises. Requiring these giants of industrial livestock farming to obtain a pollution permit would be a step toward more sustainable food systems.
Establishment-critical narrative
Curbing nitrogen emissions on farms by limiting the use of nitrogen fertilizers and slashing livestock numbers will put 5K jobs at risk in agriculture and 15K indirect jobs. This nitrogen plan, which follows EU legislation, will create a socio-economic bloodbath. The proposed cuts will put many farmers out of business. That is why farmers need to protest this proposed legislation before it's too late.
FDA Advisers Back Full Approval of Paxlovid
Independent advisers to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday voted 16-1 in support of full approval of Paxlovid — Pfizer’s oral treatment for COVID — for high-risk adults.
The FDA is expected to decide by May whether to grant full approval to the medication, which has been used by millions of Americans since it received emergency use authorization from the FDA in 2021.
Paxlovid is for people over 50 years old, or those with medical conditions that could land them in the hospital or put them at risk of dying from COVID, who become infected.
Narrative A
Paxlovid should be on a clear path to full approval from the FDA, and that status can’t come soon enough. This important tool in the fight against COVID would have prevented thousands of deaths last winter, and it will be useful in the winters ahead. Concerns about COVID rebound and problems with drug interactions have been addressed, so the FDA shouldn’t postpone Paxlovid’s wider availability much longer.
Narrative B
Not so fast. The data on who would benefit most from Paxlovid is still lacking, and there are still numerous questions that need to be answered. Doctors are already tentative about prescribing it because of the fear of side effects, in addition to uncertainty over whether it’s safe for people who are pregnant or in vulnerable populations. The FDA will have to solve many of these mysteries before full approval.
France: Macron Overrides Parliament, Passes Pension Reform
On Thursday, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron — invoking Article 49.3 — sidestepped a lower house of parliament vote on his controversial pension reform plan, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64.
The decision was met with widespread protests across the nation, with French police allegedly using batons, tear gas, and water cannons to clear thousands of demonstrators in Paris’s Place de la Concorde Thursday night.
At least 310 people were reportedly detained across France, with Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin revealing 258 arrests were made in Paris on Thursday night. Although the streets were calm Friday, government ministers are still on alert.
Narrative A
The French people are reigniting a centuries-old spirit as they fight back against autocratic ruler Emmanuel Macron. While he incessantly purports to be a proponent of democracy, Macron took matters into his own hands by raising France's retirement age. Not only did Macron abuse his power by sidestepping a parliamentary vote, but he also subverted the will of the French people in a complete slap in the face to democracy.
Narrative B
While controversial, leaders must make difficult and unpopular decisions for the long-term betterment of society, and Emmanuel Macron did just that in his efforts to save France’s pension problem. France’s demographics make it nearly impossible to maintain the status quo as the ratio of workers to retirees shows insolvency in the near future. Macron made a tough political decision, but it will pay off.
440K Gallons of Radioactive Water Leaks from Minn. Nuclear Plant
Xcel Energy is cleaning up a leak of 400K gallons of water contaminated with radioactive tritium from the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant in Minnesota after a leak occurred.
According to a statement from the utility company, the leaked water "is fully contained on-site" and has not been detected in any local drinking water supplies.
Xycel has said that its findings came after monitoring more than two dozen on-site monitoring wells.
Pro-establishment narrative
While the leak does not pose a risk to the public or the environment, authorities are still taking this situation seriously and working very hard to address the situation. This incident — including its health and environmental consequences — is being carefully monitored and all potential risks are being evaluated.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although this leak is not dangerous, and tritium spills happen from time to time, any nuclear leak is still worrying. The nuclear plant is not far from a major city and it could have been a lot worse. Any time a nuclear leak occurs, there is cause for concern — and it took authorities a while to make this information public.
ICC Issues Arrest Warrant For Putin
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday for the alleged war crime of unlawfully deporting children from Ukraine.
The ICC’s move obligates its 123 member states to arrest Putin and transfer him to The Hague for trial if he sets foot on their territory. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are ICC members, although Kyiv has granted it jurisdiction to prosecute crimes committed on its territory.
The ICC also issued an arrest warrant for Russia’s commissioner for children's rights Maria Lvova-Belova, accusing her of similar crimes.
Pro-Russia narrative
The ICC is another illegitimate international entity aligned against Moscow, but it's entirely powerless. While NATO-backed nations and NGOs may issue their aggressive statements, they have no jurisdiction in Russia. This is another attempt to encourage anti-Russian sentiment around the world by spreading manufactured allegations.
Anti-Russia narrative
The international community continues to fight against Putin and the brutal war crimes he has committed during his illegal invasion of Ukraine. Despite criticisms that this decision won't bear any weight, it marks a decisive stance as the ICC continues to investigate the atrocities committed in Ukraine and is the first step to holding Putin accountable.
Nerd narrative
There's a 7.6% chance of a coup or regime change in Russia by 2024 according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Turkey's Erdoğan Approves Finland's NATO Bid
On Friday, Turkey's Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan approved Finland's bid to join NATO — ending nearly a year of impasse after he threatened to veto both Finland and Sweden's application over concerns about their alleged ties to militant groups.
In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden applied to join the alliance last May, marking a reversal from their usual political neutrality.
The two nations had initially submitted their application as a package deal, and in June, signed a 10-point agreement with Turkey to address its security concerns.
Narrative A
While on the surface this appears to be a win for Finland, it's a decisive ploy to stoke division between the two Nordic countries. While much of Turkey's disapproval has always been directed at Sweden, Finland has made it consistently clear that NATO entry is a joint ticket. Sweden is as valuable an asset to NATO as NATO is to Sweden, and — for the sake of the Atlantic Alliance — it will be best for all parties if the issue is resolved.
Narrative B
Turkey doesn't oppose NATO enlargement — as evidenced by Erdoğan's latest decision — however, it does take a stand against countries that protect those who pose a security threat to Ankara. Sweden holds a bigger PKK presence than Finland and has long been criticized for its housing of multiple terrorists. There must be a change in the country's stance towards Ankara's national security if they wish to join NATO alongside Finland.