20 March 2023

Daily Newsletter

Former Taiwan President to Make Historic China Visit

Facts

  • During Ma's presidency, ties between Beijing and the self-governing nation improved, with the then-president negotiating a trade package with China in 2010. After the DPP's election victory in 2016, Beijing broke off relations with Taiwan's government.
  • Ma's China trip is reportedly set to coincide with a visit by Tsai to the US, where she is due to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. A visit by his predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, to the self-ruled nation in August 2022 led to a new low in Sino-Taiwanese relations.
  • Ma's foundation stated on Sunday that, following a PRC invitation, the 12-day trip beginning March 27 will see him pay tribute to his ancestors during what is known as the "Tomb Sweeping Festival." He will also visit historical sites and educational centers in various cities along with a delegation of students from his foundation.
  • Ma's office did not comment on whether he would meet with senior Chinese officials or with Pres. Xi Jinping, whom the senior member of Taiwan's Kuomintang Party (KMT) last met in Singapore in 2015 — shortly before successor Tsai Ing-wen became Taiwan's president. The KMT insists on maintaining dialogue with China amid bilateral tensions.
  • Taiwan’s former president, Ma Ying-jeou, will visit China next week in what will be the first trip of a sitting or former Taiwanese leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 amid strained relations between Beijing and Taipei.
  • While Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) views Taiwan as an independent country, Taiwan's opposition KMT considers it part of a Chinese nation. During his terms as Taiwan's president between 2008 and 2016, Ma agreed to the one-China principle — although interpretations of what that entails differ.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Ma's trip plays into the hands of the Chinese regime, which has been working to reclaim Taiwan since the Chinese Civil War. Taiwan plays a key role in Beijing's hegemonic ambitions as a springboard for dominating the Asia-Pacific region and challenging the US. At least since Tsai Ing-wen became president, Beijing has been gearing up for war against Taiwan; Washington and the world community must not let Ma's naïve trip blind them to the need to prepare for the worst.

Establishment-critical narrative

Given the increasingly hostile and hysterical US attempts to portray China as a threat, Ma's trip is a much-needed signal of détente. To preserve its hegemonic status, Washington, driven by the military-industrial complex, is using Taiwan to undermine China's growing status in the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan must not allow itself to be turned into an outright tool of US interests and must view Ma's historic trip as an opportunity to resume direct dialogue with China.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 58% chance that the Democratic Progressive Party will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Twitter Files: US Govt Backed COVID Information Censorship

Facts

  • "All were characterized as "potential violations" or disinformation "events" by the Virality Project, a "sweeping, cross-platform effort to monitor billions [sic] of social media posts by Stanford University, federal agencies, and a slew of (often state-funded) NGOs," Taibbi reported.
  • Aside from Twitter, the emails show Project Virality had the same arrangements in place with Google, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Medium, TikTok, and Pinterest.
  • However, Taibbi's findings showed that the Virality Project encouraged Twitter to censor "stories of true vaccine side effects" and "true posts which could fuel [vaccine] hesitancy."
  • In the latest "Twitter Files" — reporting on internal emails from the social media giant during COVID — investigative journalist Matt Taibbi focused on Stanford University’s Virality Project — a federally-funded initiative aimed at "detecting and mitigating the impact of false and misleading narratives related to COVID-19 vaccines."
  • The initiative also recommended censoring posts discussing "breakthrough" infections — cases in which vaccinated people are infected. It also suggested the same treatment for posts discussing natural immunity or suggestions that COVID was leaked from a lab; it even went as far as stating that "worrisome jokes" should be restricted.

Spin

Right narrative

This story is a scandal and as Orwellian as it gets. During a time when accurate information was most badly needed, tax-payer money was going to a project which worked with all the major social media platforms to control political messaging and censor content that was knowingly true at the time, or has since shown to be accurate. Is there any regard for speech and the Constitution?

Left narrative

Matt Taibbi's so-called "investigative journalism" has been widely criticized by Democrats and for good reason. Taibbi has been directly commissioned by Elon Musk for what are often biased and out-of-context "doxx and dump" stories to further Musk's right-leaning agenda. The grossly subjective so-called "Twitter Files" must be viewed in this light.

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Ex-Australian Soldier Charged with War Crime Over Afghan Killing

Facts

  • As the OSI recommended all charges be brought before a civilian court and jury, Schulz has been remanded in custody and will appear in a Sydney court at a later date. If convicted, he faces up to life in prison.
  • Australia, which deployed 39K troops to Afghanistan, was part of a NATO-led international force that trained Afghan security forces and fought the Taliban for twenty years after the West ousted the Islamist militants in 2001.
  • Following an investigation by Australia's Office of the Special Investigator (OSI) and the Australian Federal Police, ex-Australian soldier Oliver Schulz, 41, was arrested in New South Whales on charges of war crimes over the killing of an Afghan civilian.
  • The Australian Broadcasting Company says Schulz, who is the first Australian to be indicted on such charges, is the person referred to as Soldier C in a 2020 documentary. Footage allegedly shows him shooting an Afghan man in a wheat field in Uruzgan Province in 2012.
  • The OSI was established following the 2020 Brereton Report, which found "credible evidence" that some of Australia's elite forces unlawfully killed 39 people while in Afghanistan — including "prisoners, farmers or civilians" between 2009 and 2013.
  • The report alleged "blood lust" and "competition killings" as being the norm and patrol commanders requiring junior soldiers to shoot prisoners to achieve their first kill, known as "blooding." Allegedly none of the 39 killings were in the heat of battle and the victims were either non-combatants or no longer combatants.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Just as the allied forces did to Japan after World War Two, war crime charges should not be limited to lower-level soldiers. Commanding officers, too, should be held accountable for their roles in these heinous acts, as they were likely aware of what these elite forces were doing and could very well have stepped in to stop it.

Pro-establishment narrative

As evidenced by this indictment, Australia's armed forces have cooperated with and allowed independent investigators to probe and even prosecute its soldiers for all crimes committed on Afghan soil. Besides criminal inquiries, Australia's military is also considering compensating the victims of these crimes as well as stripping the alleged perpetrators of their military honors. This horrific situation is being handled responsibly by current protocols.

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Israel, Palestine Agree to Reduce Tensions

Facts

  • A similar meeting in Jordan last month also ended with pledges to de-escalate tensions, but the promise was quickly derailed when violence erupted on the same day. A Palestinian gunman shot and killed two Israelis in the West Bank town of Huwara, leading to Jewish settlers rampaging through the area, destroying property and killing one Palestinian.
  • At least 74 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli raids in the West Bank since the beginning of 2023, while 14 people have died in Palestinian attacks against Israelis.
  • Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) met for the second time in less than a month on Sunday, pledging — in Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh — to work toward easing tensions ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The measures include a partial freeze on Israeli settlements and an agreement to work together to “curb and counter-violence [sic].”
  • The US and Jordan were also present at the meeting. Egypt’s foreign ministry said via a statement that the aim of the talks was “to support dialogue between the Palestinian and Israeli sides, to work to stop unilateral actions and escalation, and to break the existing cycle of violence and achieve calm."
  • Violence, primarily in the West Bank, has continued to escalate since last year, following a string of Palestinian attacks in Israel. On Sunday, a Palestinian gunman opened fire on an Israeli couple in their car in Huwara — one man was wounded in the attack that occurred in the same town as last month's shooting attack and settler rampage.
  • Virtually all major Palestinian political parties and armed groups, save for Fatah which leads the PA, opposed the talks and called for a boycott. Hamas, the armed group that governs the Gaza Strip, said it “rejects the conference in Sharm al-Sheikh."

Spin

Pro-Palestine

The talks that occurred in Egypt are just that talk. In reality, the "agreements" made have virtually no impact on the ever-worsening situation in the occupied West Bank, in which Israel is brutally killing Palestinians on a near-daily basis. The Israelis always promise that they will freeze their illegal settlement policy, but they never actually do, as Israel's ultimate goal is to colonize the entire area between the river and the sea.

Pro-Israel

Though there is some value to the talks in Sharm al-Sheikh, ultimately they will do little to curb the wave of Palestinian terrorism and aggression that was unleashed last year. The PA continues to show its weakness and inability to contain Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank, which has forced Israel to increase its military activity. With Ramadan just around the corner, Palestinian violence will likely escalate, forcing Israel to respond aggressively.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by the start of 2071, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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IPCC Report: Climate Scientists Issue 'Survival Guide for Humanity'

Facts

  • António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, stated that the report was a compilation of efforts by more than 700 scientists and "is a how-to-guide to defuse the climate time-bomb."
  • Current goals for wealthier nations outline 2050 for them to achieve carbon neutrality. Finland and Germany have sought to speed up their timeline by reaching carbon-neutral status by 2035, and 2045 respectively.
  • Following a meeting in Switzerland, climate scientists have warned that a key climate goal will go unmet. In response, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report that the UN Chief has called a "survival guide for humanity."
  • Since pre-industrial times the earth has already warmed by 1.1°C. The globally imposed limit of 1.5°C is quickly approaching, and yet no country is on target to meet the 1.5°C goal or the goal commitments made during climate agreements. To meet the goal, governments will need to cut emissions in half by 2030.
  • The report, published on Monday, acknowledged that keeping warming below the landmark 1.5°C above pre-industrial times has become increasingly difficult. IPCC urged governments to take stronger actions as current plans are inadequate and will not reduce stop or reduce the impacts of the changing climate.
  • The report, which is slated to be the closing chapter of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment, reiterates the results and findings of their reports going back to the 1990s. The warnings are direr and now document the clear changes and impacts that result from the previous warnings not being heeded.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Our planet is already showing signs of suffering under the weight of horrible decisions regarding climate change. To go one step further in sealing the fate of a dim future, Biden greenlit the Willow project in Alaska. The project will contribute 9.2M metric tons of pollution attributed to warming the climate annually. China is planning to expand its coal operations as well. The louder scientists try to get with their warnings the more it seems they are unheard. People around the globe are already suffering from extreme heat, drought, flooding, and other climate attacks. What more is needed to make a change?

Pro-establishment narrative

Biden campaigned for the role of POTUS on the back of a very ambitious plan to combat climate change. He has committed the US to cut emissions by 50% by 2030 and so far the US is on track. Other nations worldwide are also following in the footsteps of the US with the urgent objective to keep emissions under 1.5°C. The plans are in place, and, by and large, the global community knows the clock is ticking.

Narrative C

Climate and environmental disasters have been predicted by modern-day doomsayers for decades. None of the apocalyptic predictions have come true so far; why would this time be any different?

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 44.0% of countries that pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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UBS to Buy Credit Suisse for $3.24B in Govt-brokered Deal

Facts

  • On Sunday, UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, agreed to buy Credit Suisse for approximately $3.24B ($3B Swiss francs) in a deal that contains $108B ($100B Swiss francs) in liquidity assistance from the Swiss central bank.
  • Swiss authorities brokered the deal in an attempt to halt a confidence crisis in the global financial markets, despite already giving the bank an emergency loan earlier last week.
  • Swiss authorities have also announced that $17B worth of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier 1 bonds would be completely wiped out by the merger. On Monday, in response to the deal, shares in UBS Group AG dropped by more than 12%.
  • The 167-year-old Swiss lender had faced troubles in recent years, including a sell-off of shares in 2021 triggered by losses associated with the collapse of Greensill Capital. This February, the company announced that clients had pulled 110B Swiss francs ($119B) of funds in the fourth quarter of 2022 while suffering their biggest annual loss since the financial crisis.
  • The takeover price is approximately 60% less than what the bank was worth when the market closed last Friday. Credit Suisse shareholders will receive the equivalent of 0.76 Swiss francs ($0.82) for UBS stock, replacing the shares in Credit Suisse that were worth 1.86 Swiss francs before the weekend.
  • The US Federal Reserve has also given its assent to the deal. The Swiss government intends to circumvent standard corporate governance rules by halting a UBS shareholder vote on the takeover, a move that has faced criticism. To do this, the government is preparing to introduce legislation that will bypass the normal six-week consultation period to process the deal immediately.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

There have been much bigger banking collapses in the past and the move by UBS and the Swiss government is part of a typical financial pattern. Banking is a business of confidence and deals as these must occur for such confidence to remain in the global markets. The primary objective is to keep the depositors safe, which is exactly what central bankers are doing right now.

Establishment-critical narrative

With a bank such as Credit Suisse to be bailed out in a manner horribly reminiscent of 2008, it is time for a radical rethinking of central bank policy. Such crises are the product of the central banks' policies and failure to supervise. Bankers cannot continue to attempt to serve both society and themselves — they must make the right decision or the markets are at risk of falling off a cliff.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by March 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Xi Arrives in Moscow for State Visit

Facts

  • Elsewhere, the EU approved a €2B ($2.14B) plan to boost ammunition deliveries to Ukraine on Monday. Under the plan, €1B of ammunition would be sent from existing European stockpiles while a further €1B would be sourced from new orders with weapons manufacturers. However, some diplomats raised doubts about whether the targets can be hit under tight time constraints.
  • In what both countries described as a deepening of their bilateral ties, Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Russia on Monday for a three-day visit. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Xi and Russian Pres. Putin would hold informal talks on Monday before dining together — formal talks on a range of subjects, which would "inevitably" touch on the war in Ukraine, would commence the next day, Peskov said.
  • Meanwhile, ahead of Xi's arrival, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that any PRC calls for a ceasefire following the visit would be unacceptable, saying such a move would only "ratify Russia’s conquest to date." Kirby added: "All that’s going to do is give Mr. Putin more time to re-fit, re-train, re-man, and try to plan for a renewed offensive at the time of his choosing."
  • Oleg Nikolenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's foreign ministry, said his country is closely watching the visit. "We expect that Beijing will use its influence on Moscow to force it to stop its aggressive war against Ukraine," he said.
  • Upon arriving in Moscow, Xi said, "...China is ready to act in concert with Russia to firmly uphold the UN-centric international system." He added that their countries would work together to "support true multilateralism" and "promote multipolarity in the world" — echoing previous remarks from both countries in which they railed against America as a single hegemon, alleging it dictates to others in favor of its self-interest.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Coming just three days after an international arrest warrant for Putin, Xi's visit shows he has no desire to hold the Russian leader accountable for his war crimes. Despite being globally isolated, this visit will likely give Putin a political boost, allowing him to play the part of a diplomat and leader.

Pro-Russia narrative

Xi's visit is a sign of the growing relationship between Russia and China who, together, are shaping a more multipolar world — one where the interests of the US don't come before everyone else's.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that Russia will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Trump Claims He'll Be Arrested Tuesday

Facts

  • Bragg’s case revolves around the payment to Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford; she said it was made to convince her to keep her affair with Trump a secret, which could be an infringement of campaign funds.
  • Cohen, who pleaded guilty to federal campaign finance violations in 2018, said Trump ordered him to make the payment.
  • In his Truth Social post, Trump also called for his supporters to “protest” to “take our nation back” in response to his arrest.
  • On Saturday, former Pres. Donald Trump announced via social media that he expects to be arrested on Tuesday in relation to the Manhattan district attorney’s office’s investigation into a $130K payment Michael Cohen, his former lawyer, made to Stormy Daniels.
  • The possible culmination of the New York investigation comes as Trump also faces criminal investigations in Atlanta and Washington [DC] over his attempts to undo the results of the 2020 election.
  • Trump accused the Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office of informing him about the arrest via "illegal leaks," even while the former president’s lawyer and spokesperson confirmed there had been no communication from prosecutors. There has also been no time frame set for the secret grand jury’s work.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump’s post looks like another in the unending string of lies he has spewed from his social media accounts and microphone stand. Aside from the fact that it doesn’t appear an indictment or arrest is imminent, he also falsely ranted about open borders and Jan. 6 suspects being held inhumanely before using violent rhetoric to inspire his followers. His message is dangerously reminiscent of what he exclaimed before Jan. 6. He could set off problems he can’t control.

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump has no choice but to alert his supporters that a district attorney who has been bought by Democratic megadonor George Soros is attacking the former president with yet another politically-motivated case. This is an abuse of power, and it’s the First Amendment right of the former president and his followers to voice their displeasure over it.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 95% chance that Trump will be indicted on criminal charges in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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French Govt. Survives No-Confidence Vote, Pension Reform Becomes Law

Facts

  • After protests erupted against his controversial pension reform, French Pres. Macron's government survived two votes of no-confidence on Monday. Government officials filed motions for the vote after Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne used a special constitutional power, called Article 49:3, to push the bill through without a vote last week.
  • If the no-confidence vote had succeeded, the pension plan would have become null, and the government would have resigned. Macron would've stayed in power and could have chosen to retain Prime Minister Borne, which was likely since no other name has been floated.
  • Protests have erupted throughout France against Macron’s proposal to raise the national retirement age from 62 to 64. Approximately 4K protesters gathered in the Place d’Italie in Paris, many chanting “Macron, resign!” However, Macron's position was safe even if the vote of no confidence had passed.
  • The first of the two proposals came from a centrist group and came just nine votes short of the 287 needed to pass. The other came from the right-wing National Rally and garnered 94 votes.
  • The pension reforms are now adopted under French law, but opposition legislators have vowed to continue their fight against the controversial new law.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

There comes a time when a leader must make a difficult and unpopular decision for the long-term betterment of his society, and Emmanuel Macron did that in his efforts to save France’s pension problem. France’s demographics make it nearly impossible to maintain the status quo — the ratio of workers to retirees shows insolvency in the near future. Macron made a tough political decision to save France’s pension program.

Establishment-critical narrative

Macron’s government has defied the will of the French people, and it should have fallen. The grassroots support shows how much Macron’s constituents oppose his policy, and to make matters worse, Macron used undemocratic means to advance his unpopular pension reform. French democracy looks more like a farce each day, and Macron’s government does not represent the people.

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Amazon Lays Off Another 9K Workers

Facts

  • Amazon last year had planned on terminating 10k positions, but later bumped it to almost double that figure, mostly for its PXT employees, Amazon Devices, Amazon Books, and the closure of Amazon Stores. Growth of its Amazon Fresh grocery store chain has also stalled.
  • Amazon on Monday announced it will lay off another 9K employees in the coming weeks, mostly in its advertising and cloud computing divisions — just two months after it terminated 18K people.
  • Amazon's streaming platform Twitch will also be impacted by the layoffs, with more than 400 jobs expected to be lost.
  • Amazon’s layoffs come while Facebook parent company Meta plans on laying off roughly 12% of its nearly 87K employees, SiriusXM CEO announced it will be firing about 8% of its nearly 6K employees, and other companies have announced cutbacks in recent weeks.
  • In his memo to staff, CEO Andy Jassy cited the current economy as well as "uncertainty that exists in the near future” for the layoffs. He added, "we have chosen to be more streamlined in our costs and headcount."
  • Jassy is also conducting a broad overview of the company's expenses amid an economic downturn and slowing growth in its core retail business. Amazon has also frozen hiring, terminated experimental projects, and stalled warehouse growth.

Spin

Narrative A

These companies have no choice but to downsize. The pandemic tech boom allowed companies to increase their workforces by as much as 200%, but the economy has since turned for the worse. With the US Federal Reserve reacting to inflation by hiking interest rates, there’s less available venture capital, and digital-ad revenue has dipped.

Narrative B

Instead of layoffs, which are an old-school way of dealing with a recession, companies should find alternative strategies because social media has made everyone a workers' rights activist with a global microphone. Companies that conduct layoffs suffer from poor optics, the cost of restructuring, and the low morale they create — leading them to perform poorly.

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