21 March 2023

Daily Newsletter

Sri Lanka Secures $2.9B Bailout From IMF

Facts

  • According to the IMF, the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement program aims to restore Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, mitigate the economic impact on the poor and vulnerable, safeguard financial sector stability, and strengthen governance and growth potential.
  • IMF personnel had conditionally approved the action in September, but formal approval was delayed until China pledged to restructure its loans to the island nation.
  • Pres. Ranil Wickremesinghe said the program would allow the country to access up to $7B in overall funding and help strengthen Sri Lanka's position in international capital markets as the Indian Ocean nation tries to recover from economic and social calamity.
  • Sri Lanka has been experiencing economic turmoil since it defaulted on its foreign debt in April 2022. Former Pres. Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and resigned in July amid social upheaval, being replaced by Wickremesinghe, who has implemented strict spending cuts to secure IMF funds.
  • Sri Lanka has reportedly obtained a [nearly] $3B bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it endures a crippling economic crisis. [Editors Note - widely reported as 2.9B in multiple sources.]
  • The IMF's Executive Board approved the four-year bailout program, authorizing an immediate release of about $333M and opening up financial support from other institutions following Colombo's adoption of austerity measures to meet IMF preconditions.

Spin

Narrative A

While Sri Lanka has endured many hardships over the past few years due to converging crises, the country has an opportunity to rise above economic collapse and political instability to forge a new future. The road to recovery will not be easy, but with some help from creditors and buy-in from citizens, Sri Lanka can start to provide its people with hope and security.

Narrative B

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis has spiraled into a human rights catastrophe that must be addressed before it is too late. Sri Lankans are struggling to put food on the table and many people are unable to receive vital healthcare. The IMF’s loan will do little to reverse the deep human cost of the ongoing crisis until the country's social problems are effectively dealt with.

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US: War Crimes by All Sides in Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict

Facts

  • Amhara and Eritrean forces fought alongside the Ethiopian military against the TPLF in the Tigray War, which began in November 2020 and claimed about 500K lives, making it one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century.
  • He added that Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces were also involved in what he characterized as crimes against humanity including murder, rape, and other sexual violence and persecution, and referred to alleged ethnic cleansing committed by Amhara forces against Tigrayans.
  • Sec. of State Antony Blinken said the "calculated and deliberate" war crimes were committed by the Ethiopian and Eritrean national armies as well as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and neighboring Amhara region forces.
  • The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry accused Washington of taking a "partisan" and "inflammatory" stance by accusing Ethiopian, Eritrean, and regional Amhara forces of alleged crimes against humanity while not mentioning TPLF forces.
  • The US claimed on Monday that all parties in Ethiopia's two-year Tigray conflict committed war crimes, and called for those most responsible to be held accountable.
  • This comes less than a week after Blinken visited Ethiopia, where he reportedly didn't address the issue of alleged war crimes but spoke with both sides about the importance of acknowledging atrocities committed by all parties along with accountability and reconciliation.

Spin

Narrative A

While Washington supposedly blames all parties involved for the atrocities of the Tigray conflict, it accuses only Addis Ababa and its allies of "crimes against humanity." By doing so, the US continues its campaign against Ethiopia on a smaller scale, having already punished only Addis Ababa and Eritrea but not the TPLF. With the TPLF having lost the war, caution is needed when the US pretends to now want "peace and reconciliation."

Narrative B

Though Addis Ababa may not like it, Blinken's remarks are based on an unbiased US review of atrocities during the Tigray War. Amid Blinken's visit to Ethiopia and a new aid package, the US has signaled that the time has come to revitalize the longstanding bilateral relations. Washington and the international community must keep a close eye on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed since he bears the main responsibility for the outbreak of the devastating civil war.

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Ukraine Launches Drone Attack on Crimea

Facts

  • Elsewhere, Vassily Nebenzia, Russia's ambassador to the UN, told a press conference on Monday that Russia plans to hold an informal meeting of the UN Security Council in April to discuss what he described as "the real situation" of Ukrainian children taken to Russia amid the war — an issue that gained the spotlight last week when the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants to Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin and another official over the matter.
  • Meanwhile, coinciding with China's Xi Jinping visit to Russia, the prime minister of rival power Japan, Fumio Kishida, made an unannounced trip to Ukraine on Tuesday to meet with Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
  • Nebenzia said the issue of the children was "totally overblown" and that they were taken to Russia "simply because we wanted to spare them of the danger that military activities may bring." When asked if Russia would return the children, he said: "When conditions are safe, of course. Why not?"
  • Overnight on Monday, a drone attack on Crimea struck the city of Dzhankoi in the north of the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. While Ukraine hasn't claimed responsibility, its defense ministry alleged that Russian Kalibr missiles intended for its Black Sea Fleet were destroyed as they were being transported by rail.
  • Russian media denied the presence of military targets near the strike and said only civilian infrastructure was damaged — including a shop, a house, and a school dormitory. Local officials said one civilian was injured and alleged that the drones were packed with shrapnel. Neither the Ukrainian nor Russian account could be independently confirmed.
  • This came as Zelenskyy on Monday thanked the US for its latest $350M military aid package, consisting largely of ammunition and rockets for High Mobility Artillery Rockets Systems. Zelenskyy also hailed the €2B ($2.14B) ammunition plan approved by the EU on Monday.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

The attack on Crimea — illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 — not only struck a legitimate military target, destroying cruise missiles to be used by Russia in its illegal invasion of Ukraine, but it also served another blow to Putin and exposed major weaknesses in Moscow's defense systems.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia's air defense was able to successfully counter Ukraine's attack on Crimea, which hit civilian targets only — damaging a shop, a house, and part of a school. The people of Crimea overwhelmingly voted in favor of joining the Russian Federation in 2014, and these types of assaults can't be tolerated.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: UK's Met Police 'Racist, Misogynistic, and Homophobic'

Facts

  • Current Met commissioner Sir Mark Rowley – who has been in the role since September — has kicked back against Casey's statements, saying he wouldn't use the labels of institutionally racist, misogynistic, or homophobic to describe the force. A new oversight board for the Met — to be chaired by London Mayor Sadiq Khan — will be put in place.
  • Other details revealed a female officer who tried to take her own life after becoming the "victim of domestic and sexual abuse," reportedly at the hands of an officer on her team. After two years of investigation into her allegations, nothing was done.
  • The report found that 22% of staff with protected status and 33% with an ongoing illness or disability experienced bullying. Homophobia was also found to be prevalent, with almost one in five lesbian, gay, and bisexual Met staff members having experienced homophobia, according to the report.
  • The report — which also concluded that the Black community in London is over-policed and under-protected and the internal misconduct system is in need of a serious overhaul — makes 16 recommendations for reform.
  • The review, commissioned following the rape and murder of Sarah Everard in 2021 by a serving officer, details shortcomings in basic procedures, including the poor state or usage of fridges containing forensic samples, reportedly leading to evidence becoming unusable and rape cases being dropped.
  • The UK's Metropolitan Police (Met) is rife with "systematic and fundamental" issues, and the institution itself rests on a bedrock of discrimination, according to a report from Baroness Louise Casey released on Tuesday.

Spin

Left narrative

The severity of this report raises the possibility of abolishing an institution that's failing the public and is set on a bedrock of discrimination. Perhaps most significantly, Casey finds that the depravity and suffering detailed in the review all link back to the austerity imposed under the coalition and Conservative governments since 2010. There's little chance that the Tories will be able to defend their record on crime in the lead-up to the next election. Their blind-sided focus on balancing the books has put the British public at risk and led to the country's largest police force reaching a potentially irreversible state of corrupt dilapidation.

Right narrative

Overemphasizing the role of austerity in this sorry state of affairs risks implying some kind of vindication of Met management, which Casey identifies as a "series of disconnected and competing moving parts" with "broken" vetting procedures and a lack of long-term planning. Senior officers facilitated a culture of bullying and discrimination to dominate an institution that's supposed to ensure justice and provide protection. Though the findings that the Met is institutionally sexist, racist, and homophobic are certainly contentious, there's no doubt the Met requires fundamental reform, which must come from the top.

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Biden Orders COVID & Wuhan Lab Intel Release

Facts

  • A report released last week linked the COVID virus with the sale of raccoon dogs in a Wuhan market, bolstering evidence that the pandemic could have originated through an infected animal. However, the findings haven't yet been peer-reviewed, and there's no definite explanation as to how the virus could have transferred to humans.
  • According to the bill, the Director of National Intelligence has 90 days to declassify all pertinent information. The director is then to submit the information as a report to Congress.
  • The bill cites “potential links” between the research at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology and the outbreak of COVID. However, the law will reportedly still allow for redactions to protect information deemed sensitive.
  • The House approved the COVID origins bill on March 10, after the Senate passed it without opposition a week prior. Following a week of deliberation, Biden said in an official statement that he shares Congress's goal of releasing as much information as possible about COVID.
  • The US intelligence community has been divided regarding COVID's origins, with the Dept. of Energy and FBI leaning toward the lab leak theory, while other agencies support the natural origin theory.
  • US Pres. Joe Biden signed off on legislation on Monday requiring the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to declassify information on any possible links between a Chinese lab and the origins of COVID.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Ultimately, Biden has made the right call by passing this legislation. Though the bill may exacerbate tensions with China amid an already strained relationship between Biden and Xi Jinping, it is a sound move by the Democratic leader, who is dealing with stiff Republican resistance and endeavoring to scientifically determine how COVID came to be.

Republican narrative

Though this is, of course, good news, the next step must be holding the government and Biden admin. accountable for their poor response to this origin controversy. The American people deserve to hear what they knew about COVID in the early days and after. As the US intelligence committee continues to move toward the lab leak theory, the US will have to put even more pressure on China and the US bureaucracy for answers.

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Fox Producer Sues Network, Claims Lawyers Coached Dominion Testimony

Facts

  • A Fox News spokesperson revealed that the company has engaged an "independent outside counsel" to investigate Grossberg's concerns, while affirming it would defend against the claims.
  • Dominion Voting Systems is suing Fox News for its highly controversial claims surrounding the 2020 presidential election. Grossberg alleges that before her September 2022 deposition, she was coached in a "coercive and intimidating manner" to protect executives and on-air figures.
  • Fox had filed for a restraining order against Grossberg — who has been placed on leave — to prevent her from disclosing the exchanges, but dropped the pursuit on Tuesday.
  • Grossberg, who was also head of booking for Tucker Carlson, has warned that she will publicly disclose privileged attorney-client conversations she had with Fox News lawyers ahead of the deposition.
  • In her lawsuits, Grossberg also accused the company of sexism and alleged that part of the network's strategy against Dominion's suit was to push the blame onto Fox host Maria Bartiromo as well as herself.
  • On Monday, Fox News producer Abby Grossberg filed two lawsuits against the network, claiming its lawyers pressured her into giving deceptive testimony in the $1.6B defamation suit filed by Dominion Voting Systems.

Spin

Left narrative

Fox News finds itself in real jeopardy concerning its defamation lawsuit defense. While media outlets rarely lose defamation cases, the amount of evidence against the network is exponentially growing. Not only did it knowingly promote false claims, but — as detailed in Grossberg's filings — the network also tried to cover its tracks by targeting its own employees.

Right narrative

While Grossberg's allegations should undoubtedly be investigated, the defamation lawsuit against the network and the stories that have accompanied it — gleefully parroted by the media — are baseless. Freedom of the press is foundational to democracy, and to continue to push that Fox is guilty of anything but journalism is dangerous.

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Texas Adds HSBC to Energy Sanctions List

Facts

  • However, HSBC maintained the firm doesn't boycott the fossil fuel industry and instead "seeks a balanced approach in the implementation of its net zero commitment" to support its clients' "transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy."
  • On Monday, Texas added HSBC Holdings to its list of financial firms that are allegedly boycotting the oil and gas industry in light of Europe's largest bank's new fossil fuel funding policy.
  • Terming HSBC's new energy policy an attempt to "push a social agenda and prioritize political goals over the economic health of their clients," Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar said the firm's policies threaten Texas jobs, state economy, as well as national security.
  • The crackdown on HSBC for allegedly prioritizing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies over its financial responsibilities came on the day the UN released a report emphasizing the need to move from fossil fuel-powered infrastructure to reduce global warming to 1.5 °C.
  • The move to add HSBC to the energy sanctions list — which stems from a state law established in 2021 — could prohibit Texas' governmental entities from investing in the firm as they are required to sell, redeem, divest, or withdraw all publicly traded securities of blacklisted companies.
  • This comes after HSBC's December announcement that it will no longer provide new finance and advisory services for projects pertaining to new oil and gas fields as part of its updated climate strategy.

Spin

Republican narrative

Prioritizing ESG, which is part of progressives' effort to promote woke capitalism, leads financial firms to discount their financial duties. Such policies don't just promote liberal priorities ranging from renewable energy to the Black Lives Matter movement, they lead to disinvestment in fossil fuel companies that provide tax revenue and jobs.

Democratic narrative

ESG considers the financial costs of environmental damage and social upheaval; it doesn't in any way prioritize political or ideological objectives. With ESG funds expected to see massive growth in the coming years, US states can attract investors by highlighting projects and companies with a favorable climate or social impact.

Narrative C

HSBC's annual lending to fossil fuel projects is to the tune of $20B. In the past, the bank's executives have downplayed climate change risks. Moreover, HSBC will continue to finance existing fossil fuel projects in line with current and future declining global oil and gas demand, which is why labeling HSBC as a financial company that prioritizes ESG issues is misplaced.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that the US will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029, if a Republican wins the 2024 US presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Saudi Arabia Releases Jailed US Man

Facts

  • Almadi’s imprisonment was one of several alleged human rights abuses that had eroded relations between Salman and US Pres. Joe Biden. Both administrations have recently taken steps toward restoring better relations.
  • Almadi’s son said his father remains banned from traveling and is staying at his home in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. He added, “All charges have been dropped but we have to fight the travel ban now.”
  • Almadi’s tweets included one noting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's consolidation of power in the kingdom, and another that spoke of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s killing, which US intelligence believes was authorized by the Saudi crown prince.
  • It’s unclear when Almadi can return to his Florida home, as neither US nor Saudi authorities have commented on his release.
  • On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia released US-Saudi dual national Saad Ibrahim Almadi from prison, more than a year after he was arrested for tweets critical of the kingdom, according to his son. The 72-year-old was sentenced to 16 years in prison before an appeals court upped his sentence to 19 years last month.
  • Saudi authorities arrested Almadi in November 2021 on several charges, including supporting terrorism, after he landed in Riyadh to visit family.

Spin

Narrative A

Saudi Arabia’s imprisonment of Almadi was part of a pattern of human rights abuses by the government. Dozens of people have been prosecuted for their opinions in Saudi Arabia, and there must be global action to combat this systemic oppression. Riyadh's criminalization of dissent must end now.

Narrative B

Almadi’s release is a step in the right direction for human rights in Saudi Arabia. Almadi should never have been imprisoned, but it’s encouraging to see Saudi Arabia loosen up a little bit in the name of justice. With continued work, hopefully, Riyadh's record on human rights will improve along with better relations between the US and Saudi Arabia.

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Nigeria: Obi Petitions Court Over Disputed Presidential Election

Facts

  • Election observers from the European Union, the Commonwealth, and other groups have criticized a number of issues with the election, including a lack of oversight to prevent vote manipulation, poor planning, and voting delays. However, the observers have not made any fraud claims.
  • Labour Party spokesperson Yunusa Tanko told journalists on Tuesday that the party is "challenging the qualifications of the candidate that was declared the winner. We are also challenging the processes that led to his declaration as the winner, among others.”
  • Obi, who finished third in last month's presidential race, has asked the court to declare him the winner and revoke winner Bola Tinubu’s victory, arguing among other complaints that Tinubu was not qualified to run because he does not meet the minimum educational requirements.
  • Peter Obi, Nigeria’s opposition Labor Party candidate, filed a formal court petition on Tuesday to challenge the outcome of last month’s presidential election.
  • The Appeals Court has 180 days to hear and make a ruling on Obi's challenge. If Obi is unsatisfied with the outcome of the appeals court, he can take the challenge to the Supreme Court, which will deliberate on an appeal within 60 days.
  • The Supreme Court of Nigeria has never overturned an election result, but legal challenges are fairly common. If no change in election results occurs, Tinubu will be sworn in as president on May 29.

Spin

Narrative A

The Labour Party is right to explore all legal and peaceful options to prove that Obi won the election. There were many issues with this year's election, and additional oversight is needed to check the election results. Tinubu is not qualified to be president.

Narrative B

Tinubu has already been declared the winner of the February presidential election and received the necessary number of votes. Political rivals of Tinubu and their supporters need to drop their baseless challenges and join together to strengthen the nation.

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GOP Caucus Opposes Guaranteeing Bank Deposits Above $250K

Facts

  • Currently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantees bank deposits up to $250K. The GOP group wrote that insuring deposits of more than that amount “enshrines a dangerous precedent” that “encourages future irresponsible behavior” that then gets paid for by those who obeyed the rules.
  • Granting such a guarantee will require approval from Congress under the [2010] Dodd-Frank [financial reform law].
  • Since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month, midsize banks say they are losing deposits to larger institutions, and they have requested a two-year universal guarantee on deposits to pause the outflows.
  • The Republican House Freedom Caucus on Monday issued a statement voicing its opposition to any universal federal guarantee of bank deposits more than the current limit.
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday, that her office would protect all deposits when there is a run on banks that could harm the system, and that this protection could extend to smaller banks — institutions she had not included in this policy before.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

At this time of shaky consumer confidence in the US banking system, the least the government could do is temporarily insure all deposits to prevent a dreaded bank run. Such a situation would lead to less competition while the big banks would get even bigger. After all, the smaller banks are not taking the same risks as the bigger ones, so they should not have to be put at risk.

Establishment-critical narrative

The government is propping up ultra-wealthy, politically-connected individuals at the expense of average Americans, and this has to stop. Universally protecting all deposits would be a moral hazard that would allow banks to continue their risky behavior without skin in the game. The FDIC is funded on the backs of bank customers. This attempt to protect the wealthy is nothing but another questionable bailout.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 4 FDIC-insured banks will fail in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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