US House Speaker Meets With Taiwan's President
On Wednesday, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and other Republican and Democratic lawmakers met with Taiwanese Pres. Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California. McCarthy, the third-highest ranking US leader, became the most senior US figure to meet with a leader of Taiwan on US soil in decades.
In a joint public appearance with McCarthy after their meeting, Tsai talked of how US support “reassures the people of Taiwan” that they’re not alone and paraphrased the late US Pres. Ronald Reagan by saying, “To preserve peace, we must be strong.”
Pro-China narrative
China is fully within its rights to respond to any suspected violation of the “One China” policy as it sees fit. If Pres. Biden wants to engage in better relations with China, he’d be wise to ensure McCarthy tones down, or even cancels, his meeting with Tsai — otherwise, China’s military aircraft and naval vessels in the region might have to send Taiwan a message.
Anti-China narrative
China has no right to tell US officials who they can and can’t meet with, so the CCP propagandists should calm their saber rattling. China’s harassment of Taiwan is undignified, and the CCP already looks weak due to hints that its threatened response will be kept proportional to the relative profile of the meeting. If China doesn’t want trouble in the region, it shouldn’t cause it.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 1% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Amnesty: El Salvador Committing Human Rights Abuses in Gang Purge
Amnesty International on Monday published a new report alleging that El Salvador's authorities have committed systematic human rights abuses since a state of emergency was declared last year.
The rights group alleged that the year-long war against gangs has resulted in more than 66K arbitrary detentions, as well as enforced disappearances, torture, and the deaths of at least 132 citizens in state custody.
Narrative A
The war on gangs has produced an extraordinary change in El Salvador, which recently celebrated a day streak without a single homicide. The emergency decree has reduced violence and proved popular in a country that, over three days in March 2022, reported the violent deaths of 88 people. The state of emergency hasn't violated human rights or suspended public liberties — it has only imprisoned terrorists and reduced high crime rates, making the country safer.
Narrative B
Amnesty's findings and demands chime with evidence of mass human rights abuses revealed through the leak of a government database, including the unlawful detention of children and mass arrests without investigation. Impoverished Salvadorans are being criminalized, rounded up, and wrongfully imprisoned despite the absence of any affiliation with gangs. The current state of emergency is eroding democracy and civil rights in El Salvador, and is being used to further the government's campaign of silencing opponents and independent media.
US Think Tank: Russia Continues to Make Gains in Bakhmut
On Monday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank, confirmed Russian advances in the city of Bakhmut after Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary force Wagner PMC, claimed to have captured its center and raised the Russian flag over its city hall on Sunday night.
This echoed Denis Pushilin, head of the pro-Russia Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) — which is fighting alongside Wagner — who said pro-Russia forces have since extended their gains in Bakhmut, claiming they have reached close to the city's main railway station.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia continues to make gains in Bakhmut, with all Ukrainian supply routes in and out of the city under the control of artillery fire. It's only a matter of time before Russian forces claim complete control over Donetsk city.
Anti-Russia narrative
Fierce fighting has already been going on in Bakhmut for months, and even if Russia prevails, it will have lost so many men and so much equipment that the result could hardly be celebrated. A Moscow victory in the region might be a symbolic gain but would provide little strategic benefit in the wider conflict.
Nerd narrative
There's a 6% chance that Russia will capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia Bans TikTok From Government Devices
On Tuesday, Australia banned Chinese-owned social media app TikTok from all federal government-owned devices amid data and security concerns, with Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus stating the measure would come into effect “as soon as practicable."
Exceptions are to be made on a case-by-case basis, subject to security precautions. Australia is the last of the “Five Eyes” intelligence partners to implement the social media ban, following the US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand.
Anti-China narrative
The data collected by TikTok poses a real security risk. While there's no definitive proof that China has used such information, given the current international climate, such a measure couldn't wait any longer. With Australia likely to follow the decision-making of the US, there may be a nationwide ban on the app in the near future.
Pro-China narrative
It's the US and the West, not China, that seek to use tech companies for political gain. The likes of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon effectively run the global internet, while those who profit attempt to distract the public through baseless accusations that they, themselves, are guilty of. Once again, the West is focused more on politics than fairness.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that the US will ban TikTok nationwide before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Arraignment: Ex-Pres. Pleads Not Guilty
On Tuesday, former US Pres. Donald Trump pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records after being indicted on Thursday, becoming the first-ever former president to face criminal charges.
The indictment was unsealed after the former president's plea, alleging that Trump concealed the publicizing of negative information about him in the run-up to the 2016 election — in violation of election laws.
Democratic narrative
Beyond the clear evidence against him, including his former lawyer serving prison time for facilitating this exact hush money payment, Donald Trump is terrified of this case as he has absolutely no control over the process. His fate is now in the hands of a New York jury, and no bombastic tweet or press conference can expel that reality.
Pro-Trump narrative
Each and every criminal case against Trump is as farcical and politically motivated as the next. This spectacle is based on low-level misdemeanor charges that Alvin Bragg — who openly campaigned on going after Trump — unashamedly decided to elevate to felonies. The political nature of this case is the same in the Georgia and DOJ investigations. Americans are witnessing their ruling elites rewrite the rules with no fear of retribution.
Nerd narrative
There's a 31% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
CENTCOM: US Military Kills Top IS Leader in Syria
The US military has announced that it killed Khalid Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri — who it accused of participating in the planning of Islamic State (IS) attacks in Europe — in an undisclosed location in Syria via a drone strike. No civilians were reported to have been killed or injured.
United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement that al-Jabouri was a senior leader who "developed the leadership structure for [IS].”
Pro-establishment narrative
It's always good news when an IS leader is killed, as it mitigates the group's ability to conduct terror attacks outside of its areas of influence. The US will continue to counter IS and the threat it poses to the world at large.
Establishment-critical narrative
This operation was an illegal violation of Syria's sovereignty. Though Damascus and Washington agree that IS is a terrorist organization, the US had no right to violate Syria's airspace in order to continue its policy of extrajudicial killings under the guise of counter-terrorism.
Bangladesh: Massive Fire At Dhaka Clothing Market
A massive fire erupted on Tuesday at Bangabazar Market — a popular clothing market in Bangladesh's capital Dhaka — destroying at least 3k shops ahead of the Eid festival later this month.
Though no deaths have been reported — given that the fire erupted at around 6 a.m. before most shops had opened — at least eight people were injured in the blaze, which destroyed Bangabazar before spreading to three adjacent markets.
Narrative A
Industrial fires are common in commercial places in Bangladesh because of government indifference, lax regulations, and poor monitoring and fire safety arrangements. The nation must develop a credible and accountable health and safety regulation structure and take responsibility for the tragedies that have already occurred.
Narrative B
It's not the first time a deadly fire has erupted in Bangabazar. Managed by the Dhaka South City Corporation, the market suffered at least six minor to medium fire incidents and was declared risky in 2019. If only businesses and local authorities had heeded the warnings, such a loss could have been avoided.
Florida Passes Bill Allowing Concealed Carry Without Permit
On Monday, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed legislation that eliminates the requirement of a permit to carry a concealed firearm, making Florida the 26th US state to pass a constitutional carry law.
The law, which passed 27-13 in the Senate and 76-32 in the House, allows eligible citizens who are at least 21 years old to carry the weapon without having to obtain a permit or pay a fee.
Left narrative
The pro-gun lobby uses several myths to sway the minds of decent pro-gun Americans. Unfortunately, these myths can and have led to tragic increases in gun violence and death. Gun violence is shown to increase after permit-less carry laws go into effect. The dangers of lax gun laws are understood by most Americans, which is why not only civilians are against such measures, but large swaths of law enforcement across the country as well.
Right narrative
While any side of an issue can drum up curated statistics to bolster their political arguments, the truth is that permit-less carry laws don't lead to an increase in violent crime or murder. Beyond the data, common sense dictates that criminals, by definition, don't follow the law. Constitutional carry doesn't necessarily lower crime, but it does allow law-abiding citizens to carry more easily and thus protect themselves from criminals who never cared about the law in the first place.
Report: Chinese Balloon Collected US Intelligence
On Monday, NBC News — citing one former and two current senior US officials — reported the alleged Chinese spy balloon that flew across the US in February gathered real-time intelligence on several US military sites despite Pres. Joe Biden's administration's attempt to intervene.
According to the anonymous officials, the information allegedly collected came from electronic signals possibly generated from weapons systems and communications from personnel.
Republican narrative
The Biden administration can’t be trusted to give the American public the facts or to protect the nation from foreign adversaries. It misled the public about the balloon every step of the way after failing to shoot it down before it could become a problem. It's now continuing this trend by downplaying the severity of the balloon's consequences.
Democratic narrative
The Biden administration has — and continues — to share all pertinent information that it is able to. From the onset, the State Dept. acknowledged that the balloon could possibly collect intelligence, and is still investigating. The Biden administration has done everything within its ability to protect the US, including taking the balloon down when it was safe to do so.
Pro-China narrative
The US is incompetent in dealing with crises because of the constant fighting between its political parties. The PRC's civilian airship wasn’t a threat, yet Biden shot it down to look tough in the face of Republican criticisms. Now he continues to be attacked by his political foes, but also has put US-China relations at risk with his overreaction. China can’t trust the US as a strategic partner because of its political dysfunction.
Wisconsin Votes in Pivotal Supreme Court Election
Voters in Wisconsin on Tuesday headed to the polls to elect the newest members of the state Supreme Court, with the winner determining the balance of power on the court that’s currently split with three liberals and three conservatives. Conservative Justice Patience Roggensack is retiring.
Roughly $42.3M has been spent on the race, the most expensive court race in US history. Liberal candidate Judge Janet Protasiewicz has spent nearly $12M, while conservative challenger Justice Daniel Kelly has spent about $2.2M.
Democratic narrative
If Kelly wins, abortion rights and labor unions could be decimated in Wisconsin. His support for loose gun laws and willingness to let fossil fuel companies pollute the state also makes him the lesser candidate. Even worse, tilting this court to the right could open the door for former Pres. Trump to succeed if he challenges election results in the state in 2024.
Republican narrative
The biggest issue in this race is Protasiewicz’s soft-on-crime track record. Wisconsin can’t reward her for all of the dangerously lenient sentences she’s handed out to violent criminals. If Wisconsin believes in law and order, this race will go for Kelly.