03 April 2023

Daily Newsletter

Oil Prices Surge After OPEC+ Surprise Output Cuts

Facts

  • Fuel prices rose sharply after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries announced a surprise round of output cuts on Sunday. The 1.16M barrel-per-day ("bpd") cuts could potentially spell trouble for global inflation, which was slowing down just days after an optimistic report on US price data.
  • According to an official with the Saudi Ministry of Energy, Saudi Arabia will begin its planned production cuts in May. The cuts will last through the end of the year.
  • Following the announcement, oil prices initially jumped by as much as 8%.
  • In addition, Russia said it will extend its reduction of 500K bpd until the end of the year. Oil prices soared when Russia invaded Ukraine, however, the US has been calling for oil producers to increase output, and prices have stabilized to pre-war levels.
  • OPEC+ had been expected to maintain its earlier decision to cut output by 2M bpd until December at its monthly meeting on Monday. The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66M bpd, equal to 3.7% of global demand.
  • Saudi Arabia reportedly is relying on high oil revenues to support ambitious development plans aimed at diversifying Riyadh's economy away from oil. Oil prices dipping toward $70 per barrel in mid-March may have unsettled the Kingdom, which may have prompted the production cut.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The surprise cuts by OPEC+ are ill-advised, as the decision comes just as markets and inflation are recovering. Tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia have been strained since last year when the kingdom refused to pump more. US-Saudi relations will only deteriorate further so long as OPEC+ continues this trend.

Establishment-critical narrative

Saudi Arabia was looking to offer the US a 500K barrel-per-day deal, but Washington said no. The problem here is simple, and it all lies at the feet of the US government. If America doesn't want to drill its oil in the name of transitioning to green energy, then it shouldn't be mad when OPEC+ does the same thing.

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St Petersburg Blast Kills Russian Blogger, Injures 32 More

Facts

  • A blast in a St Petersburg café on Sunday killed a prominent Russian military blogger and injured 32 other civilians — 10 of whom remain in serious condition, Russian authorities said on Monday.
  • Russian officials also confirmed that they arrested Darya Trepova on Monday — a St Petersburg resident wanted in connection with the blast after she was seen handing a figurine (the source of the blast) to Vladlen Tatarsky moments before it detonated and took his life. Tatarsky, whose real name was Maxim Fomin, had more than 560K followers on Telegram and was one of the country’s most influential military bloggers.
  • Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova blamed Ukraine for the attack. Meanwhile, Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, said turmoil inside Russia was to blame. "Spiders are eating each other in a jar," he said. Neither account could be confirmed and the motivation for the blast has not been publicly identified.
  • Meanwhile, a separate terror attack was carried out on Monday in the Russian-held city of Melitopol in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region. A car explosion targeted Maksym Zubarev, a Ukrainian serving as the head of the Russian administration in the village of Yakymivka. It was reported that he was in hospital with serious injuries, but that he survived the attack.
  • In Russian attacks over the past day, Ukrainian officials reported that six civilians were killed and 15 more were injured in the Donetsk region. One civilian was reported killed in Kherson while another was reported injured in Kharkiv. The region of Mykolaiv was also attacked without reports of civilian casualties.
  • In Donetsk's Bakhmut — the site of months of fighting — the head of the Russian mercenary force Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he has raised a Russian flag over Bakhmut's city hall, making it Russian "in a legal sense." However, he conceded that Ukrainian forces remain engaged in fighting in the west of the city. Ukrainian officials said Prigozhin's account was "fake."
  • In other developments, the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), Metropolitan Pavel — who is currently at the center of a dispute with the Ukrainian government over leasing the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra monastery — was placed under house arrest and ordered to wear an electronic bracelet over the weekend. He was charged with condoning Russia's invasion, which he denies.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

The murder of the Russian military blogger took place inside a café owned by Wagner PMC head Yevgeny Prigozhin. This was likely intended as a warning to Prigozhin, who has questioned the Kremlin's talking points on Ukraine, and was part of an effort by Russian authorities to consolidate control of the information space.

Pro-Russia narrative

This was a despicable act of terrorism that resulted in the death of one person and injured 30 more. Russia's National Antiterrorism Committee is still investigating the crime and it remains too early to identify the motive. However, there are signs that Ukraine's Security Service may have had a hand to play.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Israeli Cabinet Approves Ben-Gvir’s National Guard Plan

Facts

  • On Sunday, Israel approved the formation of a national guard — proposed by controversial National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — to deal with civil unrest in mixed Jewish-Arab areas. They refrained, however, from immediately giving Ben-Gvir direct command.
  • Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, said the force would deal with "emergency scenarios, nationalistic crime, terror, and strengthening sovereignty."
  • To create the force, Israeli ministries across the board will see a 1.5% cut to their budgets, handing the National Security Ministry around $278M. The force will also have 2K service members in its ranks.
  • Amid concerns that it could become a private "militia," PM Benjamin Netanyahu's office said a committee comprised of members of "Israel's security agencies" would propose within 90 days whether the police "or another body" should be in charge of the force.
  • The creation of a new national guard was a condition set by Ben-Gvir to agree to freeze the government's controversial judicial overhaul, which had sparked weeks-long protests across the country and a crippling general strike last Monday.
  • It was also noted in Netanyahu's statement that the force would deal with "national emergency situations" like the unrest that swept some Israeli cities during the 11-day Gaza conflict in 2021 with Palestinian militants.

Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

Considering the riots that swept Israel during the 2021 war with terrorists in Gaza, it makes sense that the government should create a new force to deal with similar situations in the future. However, Ben-Gvir might not be the right person to command such a force, as he is particularly controversial within the Israeli public and security apparatus. Though he is an integral part of Netanyahu's government, putting too much power in his hands may cause issues for Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As Netanyahu continues to pander to Israel's far-right Jewish supremacists, Palestinians will ultimately suffer at the hands of Ben-Gvir's sectarian militia. Besides the fact that such a militia will only worsen the brutality of the occupation, it will also, quite ironically, negatively affect Israel's security. Ben-Gvir cannot be allowed to build his own state within a state.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that civil war will break out in Israel before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Twitter Strips Check Mark for New York Times

Facts

  • Twitter has removed its verification check mark from the site's main profile of the New York Times.
  • Last month, Twitter owner Elon Musk announced that legacy verified users would have their blue ticks removed unless they paid the subscription fee for the site's new service, Twitter Blue, by April 1. It comes at a cost of $8 per month, while for organizations, the monthly rate is $1K.
  • However, as the deadline came and went, many organizations that had announced they wouldn't pay the fee alongside the Times — including outlets such as the Washington Post, CNN, and Politico — still had their check marks intact.
  • Some have speculated that Musk may be retaliating against the Times after learning of their decision from a post shared on his site. "Oh ok, we'll take it off then," he said.
  • According to two former Twitter employees, other organizations haven't had their verifications removed because it requires a manual process — meaning it could take weeks to remove the blue checks for all those who haven't upgraded to the new service.
  • A further reason, according to an internal Twitter document cited by the Times, was that the 10K most-followed organizations would be exempt from the rule anyway, meaning popular news sites were likely to be spared in either case.
  • Among those who also said they wouldn't pay for the new service is the White House. The decision doesn't necessarily apply to government agencies and it's expected that some individuals, such as the president and vice president, would retain their grey check marks — representing a government official — free of charge.

Spin

Narrative A

Musk should never have overhauled the legacy system, and his latest decision is a direct assault on the New York Times — a publication for which he's openly aired his dislike. After deciding to remove their verification, he hurled abuse at them, accusing them of spreading propaganda and stating that "their feed is the Twitter equivalent of diarrhea."

Narrative B

Twitter gave plenty of warning that those who failed to subscribe to the new service would lose their blue tick. The New York Times may be the first, but it won't be the last. The new subscription service — which also offers additional features such as the ability to edit tweets — is fairer than the classist old system and will rightly increase revenue.

Narrative C

While the issue surrounding legacy verification check marks sorts itself out, an immediate consequence is that it's no longer possible to distinguish between profiles that deserved the verification and those who paid for it. Celebrities and public figures often relied on check marks to avoid being confused with imposters. That reassurance is no longer available.

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Malaysian Parliament Moves to End Mandatory Death Penalty

Facts

  • Malaysia's House of Representatives on Monday approved a parliamentary bill abolishing the mandatory death penalty and lifelong imprisonment, after years of the government seeking to make such punishment optional in the country.
  • Alternatives to the death penalty, which will also be repealed as an option for some serious crimes that do not cause death, include whipping and imprisonment of between 30 to 40 years under the amendments passed.
  • The Parliament's upper house Dewan Negara will now take up the legislation, which is widely expected to be passed. If approved, it will be sent to the king to be signed into law.
  • While a moratorium on all executions has been in effect since 2018, the death penalty is the mandatory sentence for 11 crimes in Malaysia, including murder and terrorism. In exceptional cases, judges will retain discretion to impose capital punishment.
  • More than 1.3K people currently on death row, including those who have exhausted all other legal appeals, may now seek a sentencing review under the new laws.
  • Once the bill comes into effect, prisoners will reportedly have 90 days to file a review of their sentences but not their convictions. Most cases are related to drug trafficking.

Spin

Narrative A

Capital punishment causes irreversible harm and violates people's right to life. Despite being mandatory for decades, the death penalty and other capital punishments have not deterred crime effectively. It is about time Malaysia achieved this breakthrough to inspire other countries in Southeast Asia to rethink their use of the death penalty.

Narrative B

The death penalty is still necessary and should remain enforced in Malaysia, especially when it comes to serious crimes like murder and terrorism. Capital punishment does not just deter crimes; it also offers a sense of justice for victims. Serious crimes deserve serious punishments, and the law should reflect this.

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Finnish PM Concedes Defeat, Right-Wing Party Wins Vote

Facts

  • Finland's left-wing Prime Minister Sanna Marin conceded defeat in the nation's parliamentary election on Sunday as the opposition right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP) claimed victory in a tightly fought contest.
  • The NCP won 48 out of 200 parliamentary seats and 20.8% of the vote. While the right-wing populist Finns party took 46 seats and scored 20.1% of the vote, Marin's Social Democratic Party emerged as the third-largest party with 19.9% of the vote and 43 seats.
  • Since no party is in a position to form a government alone, NCP leader Petteri Orpo will reportedly get the first chance to lead negotiations and form a coalition to obtain a majority in parliament and, presumably, become prime minister.
  • Marin — the world's youngest prime minister when she took office in 2019 at age 34 — headed a coalition of five parties, all led by women.
  • Under Marin, Finland — which shares the longest EU border with Russia — moved away from neutrality and joined NATO in response to the invasion of Ukraine. The country officially becomes the military alliance's 31st member on Tuesday.
  • Meanwhile, Finland is grappling with a rising cost of living and energy crisis, with public debt reaching 71% of GDP as of the third quarter of 2022. The country's economy survived the pandemic, but growth slowed to 1.9% last year, while inflation peaked at 9.1%.

Spin

Left narrative

Sanna Marin's defeat is the latest setback for the left amid a larger shift to conservative and nationalist parties across Europe. It also signals a power shift in Finland's political scene, as the nation is likely to get a new center-right government with an anti-immigration, anti-EU, and anti-climate action coalition partner. Europe must keep a close eye on Finland's far-right and try to understand why populists and the far-right are sweeping the elections.

Right narrative

Though she was applauded for her response to Russia's war against Ukraine and Finland's bid to join NATO, Marin was primarily responsible for eroding the country's economic resilience. The global progressive icon's attempt to keep her coalition together at the cost of economic growth led to a sharp rise in the country's public debt. Meanwhile, her determination to exercise her right to party with Finnish celebrities at the peak of the energy crisis eventually dashed her hopes of a second term as prime minister.

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Former Arkansas Gov. Hutchinson Announces Presidential Run

Facts

  • Asa Hutchinson, former Republican Governor of Arkansas, on Sunday announced during a television appearance that he will run for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. He said he will make a formal announcement later this month.
  • Hutchinson is the fourth Republican to announce a 2024 run, following former Pres. Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
  • During his appearance on “ABC This Week,” Hutchinson said during his travels around the US people have asked for better leadership from “leaders that appeal to the best of America, and not simply appeal to our worst instincts.”
  • Hutchinson’s announcement is the first by a Republican candidate since Trump was indicted by a New York grand jury last week. When asked if Trump should drop out of the race, Hutchinson said the former president should “for the sake of the office” and to avoid making it a “sideshow and distraction.”
  • Term limits ended Hutchinson’s tenure as Arkansas governor in January. He served in Congress in the 1990s, and was head of the Drug Enforcement Agency as well as an undersecretary of homeland security during the George W. Bush administration.
  • As governor, Hutchinson signed a near-total abortion ban and supported the death penalty. But he also bucked his party's positions when he vetoed legislation banning gender transition surgery for minors and supporting mask mandates during the COVID pandemic.

Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Hutchinson is another RINO (Republican in Name Only) with a minuscule chance of claiming the GOP nomination. He was on the wrong side of Biden’s vaccine and mask mandates and vetoed a bill that would have protected children from gender-affirming care. He truly sealed his fate, however, with his criticisms of Trump who is still the standard-bearer for the party.

Republican narrative

Attacking Hutchinson on his Republican bona fides is ridiculous considering his track record on abortion, his strong relationship with the National Rifle Association, and his hardline position against the Affordable Care Act. Republicans would be wise to consider someone like Hutchinson in the primary mix, along with Trump, to provide multiple options to defeat Biden.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 52% chance that on Jan. 1, 2024 prediction markets will say Trump will most likely be the Republican nominee for president in 2024.

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Report: DeSantis-Supporting Super PAC Has Raised $30M

Facts

  • On Sunday, an anonymous official from Never Back Down, a "super PAC" [Political Action Committee] that will likely serve as a source of support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' potential bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, said the PAC has raised $30M since March 9.
  • DeSantis has not officially announced his candidacy.
  • Never Back Down was formed last month by former senior Trump official Ken Cuccinelli, and recently hired Matt Wolking, the head of Trump’s rapid response team during the 2020 campaign. Jeff Roe, who was campaign manager for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) during the 2016 presidential race, has also been hired.
  • The super PAC has raised more than half its money online from outside Florida, and none of it was transferred from another fundraising entity.
  • DeSantis is considered by the polls to be former Pres. Trump's stiffest competitor. The Florida governor has been on a book tour that already took him through Iowa, an important early-voting state, and should soon take him to New Hampshire.
  • Meanwhile, Trump was indicted last week by a Manhattan grand jury. His campaign has raised more than $4M since the indictment was announced.

Spin

Republican narrative

Trump had his chance as president for four years, and now it’s DeSantis’ turn to make America great again — but this time in a more stable, adept manner. DeSantis is by far the best chief executive the US has seen at any level of government in decades. He’s proven he can defeat the radical Left on everything from coronavirus restrictions to corporate activism. When he gets into the race, there will be a groundswell of support already waiting for him. This will be an exciting GOP primary.

Pro-Trump narrative

DeSantis and the other would-be challengers to Trump should just forget about it. Now that the Democratic witch hunt has led to a Trump indictment in New York, the former president is more popular than ever and his lead in the polls is growing. Trump is a sure bet to be the nominee, and the DeSantis hype is fading.

Democratic narrative

As dangerous as Trump is, DeSantis has shown himself to have extremely concerning authoritarian impulses. His Orbanist-style of Florida policies doesn't make him a Republican centrist — he is a competent and dangerous extremist. If elected, he could do great damage to American democracy.

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NASA Names First Woman and Black Man for Moon Mission

Facts

  • The US space agency NASA has named four astronauts, three Americans and one Canadian, for the Artemis-2 lunar mission. Among them are the first woman and first Black man to partake in a mission to the Moon - Christina Koch and Victor Glover.
  • 44-year-old Koch, who will be a mission specialist for the lunar flyby, is an engineer who already holds the record for longest continuous spaceflight by a woman and was part of NASA's first three all-female spacewalks.
  • Glover, 46, is a US Navy test pilot who joined NASA in 2013 and made his first spaceflight in 2020. He was previously the first African American to stay on the space station for an extended period of six months.
  • Though they won't land on or even enter the Moon's orbit, the four astronauts will be the first to fly NASA’s Orion capsule no earlier than 2024 as a prelude to a lunar landing by two others a year later.
  • The announcement comes after NASA and the Canadian Space Agency reached an agreement in 2020 to put a Canadian on the Artemis-2 mission; Royal Canadian Air Force captain Jeremy Hansen will also be making his first space flight mission.
  • Artemis-2's astronaut crew shows NASA is keeping its promise to bring greater diversity to its exploration efforts, as all previous crewed missions to the Moon consisted of White men.

Spin

Left narrative

When NASA first put humans on the Moon over 50 years ago, the US was severely lacking in diversity and inclusivity. Thankfully, the country and NASA have come a long way not only in providing opportunities for women and people of color but in acknowledging the professional and scientific benefits of a more diverse team of astronauts. The diverse future of space exploration will expand our knowledge and experiences both on the Moon and back on Earth.

Right narrative

While equal opportunity should be celebrated, whether in the academic or professional world, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs can have a negative impact. If the best person for the job happens to be Black or a woman — which may certainly be the case here — that's fine; but to pursue diverse candidates for the sole purpose of fulfilling a racial or gender quota may not even lead to true diversity, let alone picking the best candidate. Skin color, or any other immutable characteristic, won't tell you if someone is the cream of the crop — only their proven skills can do that.

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Finland Formally Joins NATO

Facts

  • Finland formally joined NATO Tuesday as its flag was hoisted alongside those of the alliance's 30 other members, with the country's accession ending seven decades of military non-alignment as its neighbor Russia remains in conflict with Ukraine.
  • NATO Sec. General Stoltenberg called the move “historic” as Finland shares an 810-mile border with Russia. Moscow has pledged to bolster its border security as adversarial NATO’s frontier with Russia has doubled.
  • Stoltenberg also criticized Russian Pres. Putin, stating that Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has yielded “the exact opposite” of Putin’s goal of a diminished NATO presence.
  • Turkey’s vote paved the way for Finland to join the alliance days after Hungary endorsed Helsinki’s bid. However, both countries have refrained from supporting Sweden’s application, and the Nordic country’s status remains unresolved.
  • Sweden’s head of the Foreign Ministry, Tobias Billström, recently said that he's less confident that Sweden would be able to join NATO by July.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Finland’s accession to NATO is a huge affront to Putin as Moscow’s geopolitical calculations worsen. The Atlantic Alliance has now doubled its border with Russia, despite the Kremlin's previous threats against Nordic countries for attempting to join NATO. Putin's war on Ukraine has brought the exact opposite of what he hoped for.

Pro-Russia narrative

While Russia is certainly not thrilled about Finland joining NATO, the Kremlin is not overly concerned. Moscow will do what it must to reinforce its military capabilities on its western and northwestern borders, but Russia does not pose a threat to Finland or Sweden. This is more of a non-event than Western governments would like to convey.

Nerd narrative

There's a 70% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.

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