India's Opposition Parties to Jointly Contest 2024 Elections
The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), formed in June by 28 opposition parties, announced on Friday that they will contest the 2024 national elections together "as far as possible" to avoid splitting votes in favor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The likely exceptions are reportedly the states of Kerala, where the BJP has a minor presence, and West Bengala, where the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is expected to challenge Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
The resolution to start seat-sharing arrangements to set up direct fights against BJP candidates in each voting district in the vote scheduled to be held by May 2024 came after a two-day meeting in Mumbai attended by several opposition key figures, including Congress party's Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi.
Narrative A
While seat-sharing agreements are likely to boost the opposition camp in the national elections, public disillusion alone may not be enough to dethrone Modi. Thus, the INDIA alliance must also have a communication strategy, an electoral plan, and a vision for the country, as the BJP has unmatched financial power and control over the media and the state machine.
Narrative B
Opposition leaders that have created this so-called unity platform exclusively to try to defeat Modi have groundlessly claimed that the premier has become scared to the point that he's planning to weaken democracy to remain in power. His actions say otherwise, as he has recommended the "one nation, one election" concept to bolster India's democratic system.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be a non-BJP prime minister of India before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Accuses Chinese Nationals of 'Gate-Crashing' Military Facilities
The US Dept. of Defense and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have identified about 100 incidents involving Chinese nationals — sometimes posing as tourists — allegedly trying to "gate crash" American military and other installations without proper authorization as potential acts of espionage.
The US government said these incidents include PRC nationals crossing into a US missile range in New Mexico and scuba divers swimming near a Florida rocket launch site.
Some incidents included visitors following Google Maps directions to a military base in order to arrive at McDonald's or Burger King. Chinese nationals allegedly tried to move past guards at an army base in Alaska saying they had hotel reservations on the base.
Anti-China narrative
This latest wave of Chinese espionage should come as no surprise. The PRC takes every opportunity it can to target US industry and government agencies to attempt to steal military and industrial secrets. The US must be on maximum alert for this type of behavior.
Pro-China narrative
Despite the constant allegations by Washington of supposed PRC espionage activities, the truth is that the US is the world's most extensive spy power. America should focus on building goodwill to mend its relationship with China and reduce its own surveillance state intrusions.
Ukraine: Rustem Umerov Replaces Sacked Defense Minister
Following allegations of corruption, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in his nightly address on Sunday that Oleksii Reznikov has been removed as the country’s defense minister, and replaced by Rustem Umerov.
Without making reference to the corruption allegations, Zelenskyy claimed that after “550 days of full-scale war” the defense ministry was in need of “new approaches and other formats of interaction with both the military and society at large.
Reznikov submitted his resignation letter to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, on Monday. In it, he stated: "Pursuant to the decision by the Pres. of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, [I] have submitted a letter of resignation to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine," adding that he will soon submit a report on the activities he's undertaken.
Pro-establishment narrative
Zelensky understands that if Ukraine is to join NATO or the EU, it has to clamp down on its problem of corruption that existed long before the war with Russia. He is rightly taking steps to eradicate this problem and should be commended for taking Ukraine in the right direction.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite Zelenskyy's public pronouncements, he himself has been at the center of corruption allegations to the tune of several hundred million dollars. How can he be taken seriously on corruption if he's also involved?
Nerd narrative
There is a 0.8% chance that Ukraine will join the European Union before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel: Netanyahu Calls for Deportation of African Migrants
Following protests and clashes between differing Eritrean groups and Israeli police in Tel Aviv, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday called for the removal of all African migrants from the country.
Speaking at a special ministerial meeting following the violence in the capital that began Saturday, Netanyahu called for "harsh measures," including the "immediate deportation of those who took part."
Clashes began following a march by Eritreans toward their country's embassy in Tel Aviv. Protesters and counter-protesters clashed over the 30th anniversary of Eritrea's current government's establishment, as well as Eritrea's Revolution Day, which commemorates the War of Independence against Ethiopia that began in 1961.
Right narrative
Israel must respond with strength against the foreign gangs causing violence and chaos in the streets of Israeli cities. While the judicial system has previously dismissed attempts to clamp down on infiltrators, the same mistake cannot occur again. Unless stern action is taken, Jewish culture will slowly become a minority because of those who take advantage of Israel's goodwill.
Left narrative
Netanyahu's government is using the weekend's unfortunate clashes to target the country's judicial system and engage in xenophobia and racism. To remove migrants in such a fashion is a clear violation of both civil and human rights, and the current detention of many individuals without trial highlights the state's growing authoritarian regime.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1.3% chance that civil war will break out in Israel before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Democrats Float Trump's Disqualification Under Constitution
Over the weekend, US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) argued that Donald Trump is in violation of section three of the 14th Amendment, which bars anyone who has engaged in insurrection or rebellion from serving in elected office.
This comes as Arizona's Democratic Sec. of State Adrian Fontes and New Hampshire's Republican Sec. of State David Scanlan revealed last week that they're figuring out what to do if Trump faces disqualification challenges.
This follows former Republican Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson's comment during the GOP primary debate last month that, should Trump become the nominee, he was morally and likely constitutionally disqualified as a result of the events surrounding Jan. 6, 2021.
Pro-Trump narrative
Democrats, the mainstream media, and RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) have been preparing for this move for a long time. Terrified that the former president will defeat Biden despite efforts to convict him and damage his reputation, they're now hoping to strip voters of their right to choose from all candidates. This is a deeply undemocratic move, especially with the former president surging in the polls.
Anti-Trump narrative
Given that Trump engaged in an insurrection after knowing he lost the 2020 presidential election, breaking the oath of office he took in 2017, all 50 state secretaries of state must enforce the enshrined Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and keep him off the ballot. Some might say that voters should be the ones judging Trump, but the supreme law of the land clearly states that only presidents who follow their constitutional oath are eligible on the ballot.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9% chance that Donald Trump will be removed or blocked from the ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russia Strikes Port Facilities in Odesa Ahead of Putin-Erdogan Talks
Russia launched a wave of drone attacks on one of Ukraine's largest grain-exporting ports in the Odesa region on Monday — hours before Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss the resurrection of the now-collapsed gain deal.
Oleh Kiper, head of Ukraine's military administration in Odesa, said that 17 Russian drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses in the space of the three-and-a-half-hour attack. "Unfortunately, some targets were hit," he said, adding that warehouses and production facilities, as well as agricultural equipment, were damaged in the attack.
However, a statement from Russia's defense ministry said the attacks targeted a Ukrainian shipbuilding plant where unmanned motorboats were assembled using foreign-imported parts. Similar sea drones were used by Ukraine to strike the Kerch Bridge in Crimea in July, as well as in other attacks including on Russian vessels.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's reasons for leaving the grain deal is that Western countries have not moved to lift the sanctions off of Russian grain and fertilizer exports as was initially agreed to when the deal was first struck. Russia has seen no promising signs that these promises would be fulfilled but remains open to reviving the deal if the export issue is resolved.
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite Russia's claims, Western countries have provided Russia with a comprehensive guide of how a series of exemptions had been issued on the country's grain and fertilizer exports. Russia is using the stoppage of the deal to seek more concessions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nairobi: First African Climate Summit Underway
On Monday in Nairobi, Kenya’s Pres. William Ruto and the African Union kicked off the first African Climate Summit. The summit will convene with representation from more than a dozen African nations seeking to have more involvement in climate change advocacy and policy.
The goal of the summit is for the African continent to showcase the continent's leadership in green power production. Proper investment and financial diplomacy through debt forgiveness will be emphasized.
Africa is home to 1.2B people residing across 54 countries with diverse strengths and vulnerabilities while being rich in natural resources and sources of renewable energy. Ruto said that the summit will show that Africa is "a critical player in solving the world’s climate crisis."
Establishment-critical narrative
While the summit's goals are laudable, there has been too much emphasis placed on carbon markets. While these markets seem like a positive way to invest in climate change, they simply reinforce the inequities already in existence between the wealthy carbon-emitting nations and poor, vulnerable nations. Continuing to increase emissions and shifting the climate responsibility to projects completed in Africa is a negligent and short-term solution to the global climate crisis.
Pro-establishment narrative
Africa is stepping into the spotlight as a critical driver in climate change conversations. The continent is home to a large swath of the world's biodiverse landscapes and a large portion of the world's most vulnerable populations. With Kenya leading, the consortium of nations will not only show the world that Africa is not the problem but a key piece of the solution — and a center for the future of climate change action.
ADHD Drug Shortage Continues as US Schools Open
With school starting back up for children across the US, an ongoing shortage of ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder) medications is causing stress in many American families.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) first announced a nationwide shortage of Adderall — which is one of the most widely used medications for ADHD —10 months ago. Experts expect the supply issues to possibly worsen in the coming months.
While some pharmaceutical manufacturers have predicted that the drug shortage will end soon, there is no definitive timeline for when the medication will be readily available again. In the meantime, some parents of children with ADHD have turned to finding alternative pharmacies or trying non-drug treatment alternatives.
Narrative A
Those who need stimulant medications to treat conditions like ADHD should be able to easily access these prescriptions. Being forced to cut off cold turkey or go without could be very harmful for many people — especially young schoolchildren. Pharmaceutical companies need to be more transparent and forward about how much longer these drug shortages will last.
Narrative B
Stimulant drugs, like those used to treat ADHD, are often misused, and overprescribing these serious medications is a big concern for parents and regulators. With a current shortage in place, this would be a natural time to reevaluate how these drugs can be prescribed safely and responsibly. This will help ADHD be managed in a more sustainable manner going forward.
Flooding and Mud Disrupts Burning Man Festival
On Saturday, the Pershing County Sheriff's Office in Nevada announced that an investigation had been launched into a death that occurred at the notorious Burning Man Festival.
It's estimated that 70K people attended the event in the Black Rock Desert before torrential downpours turned the usually dry and dusty landscape into a mud pit. Organizers issued a shelter-in-place order, however, some attendees attempted to drive or walk to the nearest paved highway 5 miles (8 km) away.
With the shelter-in-place order, attendees were asked to conserve food, water, and fuel until a safe route to leave had been established. Portable cell phone towers were brought in to provide communication for attendees stuck at flooded or muddied campsites.
Narrative A
The Burning Man Festival is a free-spirited event frequented by artists, self-expressionists, and the California elite. While the event is usually plagued by extreme heat and dust storms this time the haunting hazard was rain. As climate change alters Nevada's landscape and environment by increasing rainfall and the frequency of rainstorms, the event's organizers will need to increase their planning and preparation for new kinds of extreme weather events to keep their devoted followers safe and coming back year after year.
Narrative B
The community attending Burning Man is made up of resilient and self-reliant people. When plans change, as necessary with the unexpected rainfall, the Burning Man attendees adapted and were well equipped for survival. The organizers have run scenarios and drills that allowed them to best prepare attendees and manage the incident after it occurred as evident in their ability to provide transportation for those who made it to the main gate. The loss of life was tragic this year, but preparation and planning kept thousands of people safe.
Nerd narrative
There's a 43% chance that large-scale solar radiation management will be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Discusses Trump, the Economy, and Unions on Labor Day
Pres. Joe Biden gave a Labor Day speech in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, criticizing former Pres. Donald Trump and touting his administration's economic policies.
Speaking to a crowd of union workers in Philadelphia, Biden said, “Bidenomics is a blue-collar blueprint for America." He focused on job growth under his administration, saying that he added 13.5M jobs while the US recovered from the pandemic.
Refusing to call out Trump directly by name, Biden continuously referred to the former president as “the last guy” and said: “The guy who held this job before me was just one of two presidents in history...who left office with fewer jobs in America than when he got elected to office.”
Democratic narrative
President Biden is going back to his roots and showing his commitment to unions and the working class to the American people. The president has a record of defending workers that spans decades, and he made sure to let everyone in the audience know that his predecessor was no champion of the working class. Unlike the “last guy” who was all talk and no action, Biden has a plan that is working for all Americans.
Republican narrative
While Joe Biden may try to tell Americans that he has made the economy stronger than it was when he took office, the overwhelming evidence suggests that “Bidenomics” has failed and the American people know it. The Trump economy was soaring at a record pace before the entire world was shut down, and Biden completely botched the COVID recovery. The only record Biden has is making the economy he ruined slightly less awful.
Nerd narrative
There is a 60% chance that Joe Biden will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.