Guatemala: Heavy Rains, Landslide Kill at Least 6
A flash flood and a landslide in Guatemala's capital early Monday caused a river to burst its banks, killing at least six people. Initial reports suggest 15 others, including minors, could be missing.
Waters from the swollen Naranjo River swept away at least six homes in the town of Dios es Fiel, according to Guatemala's National Coordination for Disaster Reduction agency.
Guatemala City officials stated that the choking of Naranjo with garbage caused water to pool upstream following the overnight downpour. A sudden declogging of the river then let loose the torrent that set off landslides, washing away houses built along the river's edge.
Narrative A
Plastic pollution is choking Guatemala's rivers. The Motagua River, the country's largest watercourse, reportedly carries almost 8.5K tonnes of waste every year. Until the mess is cleaned up and the trash cleared upstream, roaring waters will continue to breach the banks, particularly during the rainy season, leading to such tragedies.
Narrative B
While Guatemala is Central America's largest economy, more than half of its population lives below the poverty line — and often in places prone to natural disasters. To avoid similar tragedies, the government must address the country's housing shortage that leads to the mushrooming of shantytowns.
ChatGPT Rolls Out Voice and Image Prompts
On Monday, OpenAI announced that it intends to add voice and image features to ChatGPT over the next two weeks.
The voice feature will reportedly allow ChatGPT's Plus and Enterprise users to converse with the chatbot, including seeking its opinions on dinner-time debates.
OpenAI has collaborated with professional voice actors to help ChatGPT generate human-like audio from text in five different voices.
Narrative A
Less than a year since its launch, ChatGPT's rapid evolution through the use of voice-based assistants and large language models signals the arrival of AI as a mass-market product like Google's search engine. This brings the realm of science-fiction a step closer to the real world.
Techno-skeptic narrative
Beyond the initial thrill and amusement, AI's rapid advancement must be matched with rising awareness of the risks of it spinning out of control. From using private images malevolently to the potential to assemble bombs, AI's unregulated evolution is yet to address several concerns prompted by the tech giants' global rush to reign supreme.
Nerd narrative
There's an 85% chance of an AI malfunction precipitating an event that will cause at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B in economic damage before 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Mali's Junta Postpones Presidential Election
Mali's military government on Monday announced it would postpone a planned presidential election, intended to restore democracy in the conflict-torn country, originally scheduled for February.
In a statement, the junta said the voting "will be slightly postponed for technical reasons," including problems related to the adoption of a new constitution this year.
Further, it also referred to a dispute with the French company Idemia — involved in the country's census process — for the delay, adding that "the new dates for the presidential election will be communicated later."
Narrative A
The announcement is the most recent testimony to the autocratic nature of the so-called transitional government. That this is the second time Bamako has postponed presidential elections makes it clear that the supposed "technical issues" are merely a pretext to prevent Mali's transition to democracy. Since there are no valid reasons for postponing the elections, renewed sanctions by ECOWAS are an option to bring the military junta to its senses.
Narrative B
Criticism of Mali's government ignores an important lesson of recent years — that "democracy" has failed to deliver on its promise of development and peace. Recent African coups could only succeed because people are desperate and prefer military rule to a democratic façade. Moreover, countries like Saudi Arabia, courted by the West, show that democracy is no prerequisite for creating prosperity and stability. For the people, results matter more than the form of government.
US, Kenya Sign Defense Deal
The US and Kenya on Monday signed a defense agreement that will provide resources and support for security deployments in East Africa. As part of the agreement, Kenya has volunteered to lead an international mission to Haiti, where strife has been prevalent.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Kenya's Defense Minister Aden Duale signed the agreement in Nairobi. The agreement aims to intensify defense cooperation for the next five years as Kenya fights al-Shabab.
Austin thanked Kenya for pledging to send 1K security officers to Haiti to combat gang violence on a mission that is awaiting UN Security Council approval. And he assured Duale that the Biden administration would work with Congress to secure the $100M in funding it pledged on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Pro-establishment narrative
Although this deal focuses on Nairobi's efforts to fight al-Shabaab, it also enhances Kenya's role on the global geopolitical stage by elevating Nairobi to a leadership role in the international mission to stabilize violence-plagued Haiti. The US and Kenya are strengthening their partnership, which will make the world safer.
Establishment-critical narrative
There are concerns about the legitimacy of any foreign intervention in Haiti, which is on the minds of human rights advocates and security analysts alike. All eyes will be on this mission as Kenyan forces enter a Caribbean nation that has a painful legacy of colonization and imperial intervention.
Ukraine Claims Commander of Black Sea Fleet Killed in Crimea Strike
On Monday, Ukraine claimed to have killed 34 officers — including Viktor Sokolov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet — in its missile strike on Russia's navy headquarters in Crimea last week.
Ukraine's Special Operation Forces further claimed that 105 people were injured in the strike on Sevastopol. However, Ukraine provided no evidence for its claims, which were vastly different from how the event was portrayed in Russian reports.
Russia's defense ministry initially reported that one serviceman was killed in the attack, but later issued a clarification to state that he was missing. [Nonetheless, Russia's defense ministry has routinely minimized losses and adverse news throughout the conflict.]
Pro-Ukraine narrative
As reported by Ukraine's military, Viktor Solokov was killed alongside 33 other officers in Ukraine's attack on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea on Friday.
Pro-Russia narrative
As a result of Ukraine's attack on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, one serviceman was reported missing, but there were no reports of fatalities. Ukraine's claims are incorrect.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Palestinian Authority Welcomes Its First Saudi Ambassador
The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has hosted a self-proclaimed "historic milestone" of welcoming its first Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — Nayef al-Sudairi.
The delegation to Palestine is the first of its kind to travel to the West Bank since the Oslo Accords in 1993. Al-Sudairi was initially met by Palestine's highest-ranking diplomat, Riyad Al-Maliki.
Non-resident al-Sudairi, who is also Saudi's ambassador to Jordan, continued the two-day visit by meeting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
Pro-Israel narrative
Having previously disregarded the importance of diplomatic ties with Israel for nearly a year, the White House now expects Tel Aviv to accept and allow concessions to Palestine in return for a deal with Saudi Arabia. Such a reality may be a stretch for Netanyahu's government, which will not relinquish to external international pressure. Israel has a high bar for any realignment of relations of nations in the region.
Pro-Palestine narrative
This is not the first time that Saudi Arabia has shown goodwill towards Palestine, nor will it be the last. If the Saudis truly desire change in the West Bank, they must provide more than rhetoric and show they are truly supportive of the Palestinian cause. Palestine too, has a high bar as the geopolitics shifts in the region.
Nerd narrative
There is a 42% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metcaulus prediction community.
South Korea Holds First Military Parade in 10 Years
South Korea held its first large-scale military parade in a decade on Tuesday to mark the country's Armed Forces Day with a range of weapons and machinery marched through the streets of the capital city of Seoul.
The parade reportedly displayed hundreds of pieces of military equipment — such as tanks, self-propelled artillery, and drones — and featured thousands of soldiers, including 300 of the 28.5K US troops stationed in the nation.
The celebrations, which mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the country’s armed forces, come as tensions rise on the Korean peninsula, with South Korea turning closer to its alliances with the US and Japan as North Korea advances its weapons program.
Narrative A
While this parade is projecting an image of the strength and unity of South Korea and its military allies, the biggest impact is not going to be felt internationally but instead domestically. The elaborate display of the parade and its celebrations show the South Korean people that their country is now an important global power and underlines the success of the country's defense exports industry.
Narrative B
The arms race in Asia risks spiraling out of control, with the US and its allies Japan and South Korea, China and its partnership with Russia, and North Korea each vying for control of contentious land and sea areas. With no measures of restraint or arms control, the situation is likely to continue to worsen, as deterrence and escalation are often one and the same.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Joins UAW Strikers on Picket Line in Michigan
US Pres. Joe Biden on Tuesday joined United Auto Workers strikers on their picket line at a General Motors parts distribution warehouse in Michigan, encouraging them to keep fighting for a 40% raise despite concerns that a prolonged strike could harm the economy.
Though lawmakers and presidential candidates often appear at walkouts, this is reportedly the first time in American history that a sitting president has ever walked a picket line to show support for an ongoing strike.
UAW members have been on strike since Sept. 15 after the union and the Big Three automakers — Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis — failed to reach a deal before contracts expired, affecting 41 facilities nationwide.
Democratic narrative
This historic visit to the UAW picket line attests to the truth of Biden's self-proclaimed staunch pro-union stance, sending a powerful symbolic message in support of striking workers and stressing the rising influence of organized labor in the country. His decision is likely to give UAW members more leverage in negotiations while also calling out right-wing false populists.
Republican narrative
As Biden sees his polling numbers sinking deeper ahead of the 2024 election, he is desperately trying to secure an endorsement from the UAW — one of the biggest private sector unions in the country. That is precisely why he decided to take sides in this union negotiation. Yet, walking the picket line does not change the fact that his pro-EV policies and economic mishandling have harmed working-class Americans.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 459K workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Government, 17 States Sue Amazon in Landmark Monopoly Case
The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC), alongside 17 state attorneys general (AGs), has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon, claiming the company unfairly promotes itself at the expense of third-party sellers who rely on the company’s e-commerce marketplace for distribution.
The lawsuit, filed in Seattle, Wash., alleges that Amazon illegally punishes merchants for offering lower prices elsewhere, as well as coerces sellers to use its logistics service if they want their goods to appear on the Amazon Prime subscription service.
The FTC, whose chair, Lina Khan, has called for regulating Amazon since her days as a law student in 2017, claimed the company "exploits its monopolies in ways that enrich Amazon but harm its customers."
Narrative A
Amazon uses coercive and punitive tactics to keep its top spot in the e-commerce market and then raises prices for goods due to the inorganic lack of competition that would normally bring them down. This tech behemoth has continued this regime of economic suppression for far too long, so, thankfully, the FTC — backed by a bipartisan group of states — is finally laying down the law.
Narrative B
Since 2021, FTC Chair Lina Khan has unfairly targeted Amazon and its executives in an egregiously handled probe that shows a clear personal vendetta against CEO Andrew Jassy and Jeff Bezos. Khan has publicly shown her bias against Amazon since her 2017 article berating the company, and she is now abusing her power to target Amazon and its key figures.
SCOTUS Rejects Alabama's Redistricting Proposal
On Tuesday, SCOTUS rejected Alabama’s bid to keep its GOP-drawn congressional map that included only one majority-Black district, ensuring that the state will likely have a second Black district for the 2024 elections.
In rejecting Alabama’s emergency bid to approve its proposed map, SCOTUS doubled down on its June ruling that affirmed a lower court order for Alabama to redraw its seven-seat congressional map to include a second majority-Black district to reflect the state’s 27% Black population.
The decision allows a court-appointed special master to continue working on a new congressional map. On Monday, he put forth three proposals that included two districts with majority-Black populations that comply with the court’s decision.
Democratic narrative
The conservative Supreme Court actually did something positive and stood up to Alabama’s assault on voting rights – again. SCOTUS already upheld lower court decisions that require Alabama to give fair representation to its Black citizens, but the state’s Republicans did everything they could to ignore the decision and disenfranchise Black voters. The court’s decision is a great victory for democracy and equality, and brings some light to a region that has been plagued with discrimination and voter suppression.
Republican narrative
This decision to enforce racial quotas in congressional redistricting defies prior decisions by the court’s very same justices and only reinforces the idea that race is the most important part of a citizen’s identity. While it's unsurprising that the court’s liberal wing rules in favor of any decision that gives more power to the Democratic party, it is very surprising to see level-headed Justices like Roberts and Kavanaugh completely disregard their judicial philosophy.