Amazon River: Over 100 Dolphin Deaths Tied to Drought, Heat
The Brazilian government-funded Mamirauá Institute has blamed the death of over a hundred dolphins in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest on the historic drought and record-high water temperatures in the Tefé Lake region.
The carcasses of 120 river dolphins, which could represent up to 10% of the population, have been beached on the lakeside since last week. Thousands of fish have also reportedly died in the area where temperatures have exceeded 102°F (39°C).
Amazon river dolphins are among a handful of freshwater dolphin species left in the world, with both pink and grey dolphins — locally known as "boto" and "tucuxi," respectively — being on the International Union for Conservation of Nature's red list of threatened species.
Narrative A
While the cause of this extreme event has yet to be determined, the death of at least 120 dolphins in the Amazon is undoubtedly connected to a historic drought and jacuzzi-level searing temperatures in Tefé Lake. This tragedy must serve as a warning that climate change threatens the survival of humans and many other intelligent mammals.
Narrative B
It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with global warming. More research is needed before establishing any direct causal link between the two.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US, Switzerland Donate $8.4M to Brazil's Amazon Fund
The US and Switzerland have donated $8.4M to Brazil's Amazon Fund to preserve the world's largest tropical rainforest, the Brazilian National Development Bank (BNDES) said on Tuesday. The bank said Switzerland contributed $5.4M and the US $3M.
The Amazon Fund supports the prevention, monitoring, and combat of deforestation and fosters sustainable development in the rainforest region. Since its creation in 2008, it has funded 102 projects, investing $340M, BNDES said.
Germany, the US, the UK, the EU, and Switzerland together pledged $655M to the fund. However, to date, not all of them have paid, while some have not yet paid the full amounts they pledged.
Narrative A
Amazon countries need the world's help to curb deforestation. Besides financial incentives like funds and debt relief, they must also be assisted in fields such as law enforcement and resource conservation. At a time when the world is facing rapid destruction, it would be foolhardy to leave these nations to fend for themselves.
Narrative B
Over the years, many countries and companies have publicly committed to protecting the world's tropical lungs. Evidently, pledges alone are ineffective as there is no accountability — the risks to livelihoods, profitability, and demographics sap them of all political will. As long as it remains more profitable to cut down trees than to protect them, words are meaningless.
Nerd narrative
There's a 26% chance that Brazil will reach net zero deforestation before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan: Authorities Order Illegal Immigrants to Leave Country
On Tuesday, Pakistan ordered all undocumented immigrants — including about 1.73M Afghans — to leave the country by Nov. 1 or face extradition.
Claiming to possess "evidence" of the assertion, Pakistan Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti said 14 of the 24 suicide bombings in the country to have taken place this year were carried out "by Afghan nationals."
In a stern warning to any immigrants who should fail to leave before the deadline, Bugti stated: "All our state law enforcement agencies will unleash an operation with full-throttle to deport them."
Narrative A
The crackdown on undocumented immigrants, primarily Afghans, stems from a dramatic surge of terrorist attacks in Pakistan in recent months, suspected to be directed from militant sanctuaries in Afghanistan. The country has in this period witnessed the largest influx of Afghan refugees since the Soviet invasion in 1979. Islamabad's latest move will prevent militants from using Pakistani soil to train fighters and cripple law and order.
Narrative B
It is inhumane of Pakistan to demand passports and visas for entry from Afghans who have for decades crossed the border using only their national identity cards. Instead of fighting the Islamic state's militants who freely operate along the border and have routinely carried out attacks in Pakistan, Islamabad is evicting innocent people who have fled the Taliban's atrocities back home.
Narrative C
Islamabad may be justified in ordering illegal immigrants to leave the country under national security considerations. However, it should refrain from forcibly evicting the displaced. The authorities must realize that people fleeing persecution often lack necessary documents and permissions, so they must reevaluate how to go about this process.
Nerd narrative
There's an 82% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
NKorea Slams US for Labelling It 'Persistent Threat'
North Korea on Wednesday condemned the US Dept. of Defense's counter-weapons of mass destruction (WMD) strategy paper, which describes Pyongyang as a "persistent threat."
Last week, the Pentagon released the 2023 version of its Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, which identifies China as a "pacing challenge," and Russia as an "acute threat," with North Korea and Iran being labeled "persistent threats as they continue to further pursue and develop WMD."
North Korea's Defense Ministry rejected the designation and, for its part, accused the US of stepping up its nuclear threats, pointing to joint military exercises with South Korea and the deployment of a strategic nuclear submarine. It also criticized Russia and China's classification as a "political provocation."
Establishment-critical narrative
With its updated WMD counter-strategy, the US is turning reality upside down, as it is Washington and its military-industrial complex that pose the greatest threat to the world. The US is the world's largest WMD-armed state and the only one that has ever used nuclear weapons. To justify its policy of global military hegemony, it projects the threat it poses itself onto declared "enemies." This explains the need for North Korea to increase its nuclear arsenal and diversify its nuclear strike capability.
Pro-establishment narrative
Pyongyang not only rejects denuclearization but has also passed a law allowing the use of nuclear weapons as an offensive war option. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is developing and stationing nuclear capabilities that could reach regional US allies as well as the US itself. Moreover, the DPRK's chemical and biological arsenal poses a constant threat to any nation the regime considers an "enemy." The Kim regime represents an incalculable danger, and the US is right to adapt to this persistent threat.
Nerd narrative
There is a 31% chance that North Korea will possess enough fissile material to produce at least 100 warheads before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Brings Charges Over PRC Fentanyl Distribution
On Tuesday, the US Dept. of (DOJ) charged eight Chinese companies and 12 executives for their alleged role in the production and trafficking of fentanyl into the United States.
As part of eight separate indictments, the DOJ alleges the accused of producing fentanyl and methamphetamine, supplying precursor chemicals, and distributing synthetic opioids. Speaking at a news conference, Attorney General Merrick Garland said the global fentanyl supply chain "often" starts in China.
In 2022, fentanyl was linked to a record 109,680 deaths in the US. Garland further claimed the US knows "who is responsible for poisoning the American people" and revealed the Chinese government didn't work with the US on these investigations.
Anti-China narrative
Because of China, opioids are making their way into the biggest cities and the smallest towns throughout the US and they’re costing innocent lives. Obviously, the US has to better secure its Southern border, but also Beijing must be prohibited from preventing such deadly chemicals from reaching North America.
Pro-China narrative
Blaming China is the easy option, but the US should look within. While Washington is pointing fingers at Beijing, the US homemade fentanyl crisis is growing due to the influence of Big Pharma and other money-driven interests. The US should take care of its own business and leave the PRC out of this discussion.
Nerd narrative
There's a 19% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Cluster Munitions Used in Attacks Inside Russia, Regional Governor Claims
Alexander Bogomaz, governor of the Russian Bryansk region bordering Ukraine, claimed on Wednesday that Ukraine had used cluster munitions in four attacks on the region. He said several homes and outbuildings were damaged, but there were no reports of casualties at this stage.
Bogomaz also alleged the weapons were used in an attack on his region a day earlier, again stating that several buildings were damaged, but that there were no reports of injuries.
Despite condemnation from human rights groups, US Pres. Joe Biden approved the transfer of cluster munitions — which scatter bomblets that may continue to be dangerous for years after they're used — to Ukraine in July. Though a "difficult decision," Biden said that it was necessary as Ukraine was running out of regular artillery shells. The weapons have been used by both Russia and Ukraine in the war.
Pro-establishment narrative
The decision to arm to Ukraine with cluster munitions was difficult, but one that was necessary given its shortages of regular ammunition. Effectively allowing Russia to take more Ukrainian land and subjugate more of its citizens simply because the country is not sufficiently armed is an unacceptable prospect.
Establishment-critical narrative
When Russia was found to have used cluster munitions, the political and media establishment was up in arms over the devastation the weapons inflict on civilians. We should apply the same moral standard and condemn the use of cluster munitions any time they're used.
Nerd narrative
There's a 32% chance that the next Russian leader will disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Tory Conference: PM Sunak Cancels Major Rail Link
Speaking at the Conservative Party conference on Wednesday, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the government would cancel the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the country's HS2 high-speed train project.
While confirming that the London Euston to Birmingham leg would be completed, Sunak stated that he would be ending the "long-running saga" as the "facts have changed" concerning the price of the project.
The prime minister revealed that the cost of the HS2 rail link had "more than doubled" while claiming that the £36B ($43.8B) saved from canceling the route would be reinvested into projects in the north of England that would "make a real difference."
Right narrative
Sunak is more than aware of his party's decline in the polls and is now keen to focus on long-term decision-making to regain the public's trust. While essential long-term reforms to various public institutions are often synonymous with failure in the UK political sphere — predominantly down to a lack of will by politicians to withstand short-term criticism to achieve their goals — Sunak must pursue what he knows to be correct.
Left narrative
The scrapping of the HS2 link between Birmingham and Manchester is a historic betrayal of the North and the perfect demonstration of incompetency within the Tory party. While Sunak may purport to prioritize the nation's long-term health over short-term gains, this decision achieves the exact opposite as Sunak looks to shore up support ahead of next year's election — a clear indication of where his priorities truly lie.
Nerd narrative
There's a 77% chance that the Labour Party led by Sir Keir Starmer will form the first government after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
75K Kaiser Permanente Workers Strike Across US
More than 75K unionized employees at Kaiser Permanente went on strike Wednesday at healthcare facilities in five states, amid a dispute between labor negotiators and the company over staffing levels.
Employees in Virginia and Washington, D.C., California, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon, began striking today in what will be the largest healthcare workers strike in U.S. history.
The striking workers include nurses, emergency department technicians, radiology technicians, X-ray technicians, respiratory therapists, medical assistants, pharmacists, and other job functions.
Pro-establishment narrative
While there's no question that staffing shortages and employee burnout are an issue at Kaiser Permanente, these issues are affecting the entire healthcare industry, not just this company. It is unfair to blame Kaiser for an entire sector's problem. Additionally, Kaiser already has better compensation and benefits packages than most companies. A strike was unnecessary.
Establishment-critical narrative
Kaiser management failed to adequately address worker's concerns about unsafe staffing levels. Previous negotiations have not been done in good faith and a fair outcome has not yet been achieved. While unfortunate, a strike is necessary to improve working conditions, and staffing levels, which will improve the quality of patient care. This is another example of America's simmering labor movements.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 459K workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Interim House Speaker Instructs Pelosi to Vacate Capitol Office
US Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who is temporarily in charge of the House following a vote to vacate Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) speakership on Tuesday, has instructed former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to vacate her office in the Capitol building.
Offices such as Pelosi's, known as hideaways, are private, unlisted rooms used by the most senior-level officials in Congress and traditionally reserved for senators. McHenry's office said the room would be "re-keyed" Wednesday.
Pelosi, currently in California to attend the funeral of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, said she wouldn't be able to move her personal effects. According to one of her spokesmen, her belongings were moved out Tuesday with help from the staff of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).
Democratic narrative
Not only did McHenry break the long-held tradition and shared courtesy of retaining Pelosi's office for the former speaker, but he did so on a day the congresswoman was out of town mourning the death of a colleague. The GOP may enjoy petty disputes within its own party, but they shouldn't let this overflow into the personal lives of politicians on the other side.
Republican narrative
If Pelosi wants to talk about tradition, hideaway offices are traditionally given to a select number of high-level officials, which Pelosi no longer is. It's true that McHenry needs to get to work, which is why he removed an irrelevant politician from an office meant to be used by relevant leaders.
Republicans Voice Support for Trump as Next Speaker
Following the ousting of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) announced late Tuesday that he would look to nominate former US Pres. Donald Trump to be the next speaker of the House.
While Nehls wasn’t one of the eight Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy, he announced on X that he would nominate Trump as McCarthy isn’t running for the speakership again. All House Democrats joined the eight conservative Republicans to oust McCarthy.
Other Republicans, including Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, have voiced their support for Trump to become speaker. Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan also said Trump would be “great,” although he announced his intent to run for the speakership.
Pro-Trump narrative
There's no better choice for House speaker than Trump and many House Republicans are already coming to his support. While Trump’s primary mission is to retake the White House, he could serve as speaker in the meantime, which would allow him to restore order and unity in the House.
Anti-Trump narrative
While the House was able to oust Kevin McCarthy from his role — largely thanks to Democrats — it won't be able to secure Trump the speakership. Trump is being indicted for multiple crimes, and House rules disqualify people in his situation from becoming speaker. Besides, he doesn't have enough GOP support to win the vote.
Nerd narrative
There's a 58% chance that Steve Scalise will be elected to replace Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, according to the Metaculus prediction community.