Iran State Media Claims Teenager 'Brain Dead' After Alleged Morality Police Assault
Armita Geravand, the teenage girl who fell into a coma earlier this month after allegedly being assaulted by the 'morality' police at a Tehran metro station for not wearing a hijab, is "brain dead" despite medical efforts, according to Iran's Tasnim news agency.
This comes nearly a fortnight after Hengaw Organization for Human Rights reported that six doctors at Fajr Air Force Base Hospital treating the 16-year-old — whose level of consciousness had fallen to 3 on the Glasgow Coma Scale — told her family that she had no hope of recovery.
According to Iran International, authorities have pressured the Geravand family to discreetly relocate her body from Tehran to Jafar Abad, Kermanshah in the event of her death, in a bid to avoid public demonstrations similar to those following the death of Mahsa Amini in mid-September last year.
Anti-Iran narrative
The Islamic Republic's morality police have yet again victimized a young girl so as to enforce a mandatory dress code. While journalists reporting on their inhumane behavior will be imprisoned, the victim's family will be forced to air fabricated views. The Iranian authorities are using the very same playbook they applied to malign Amini.
Pro-Iran narrative
The West has again resorted to distorting the facts of a sad incident in a smear campaign against the Islamic Republic. Such malicious allegations can only prove that Western countries don't care about human rights, as they have no qualms using women as a political tool against independent nations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by November 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FIFA to Host 2030 World Cup on Three Continents
On Wednesday, FIFA's governing council announced that the 2030 soccer World Cup will be held in six countries on three continents to mark the tournament's centenary.
The combined bid of Morocco, Portugal, and Spain was unanimously agreed as the sole candidacy to host the event. The centenary celebration ceremony will be held in Montevideo to pay homage to the inaugural World Cup hosted and won by Uruguay in 1930.
While Argentina and Spain have previously hosted the World Cup — in 1978 and 1982, respectively — Uruguay, Morocco, Paraguay, and Portugal will be first-time hosts.
Narrative A
This innovative and audacious decision is groundbreaking and will appropriately mark the 100th anniversary of the FIFA World Cup by creating a unique hosting agreement to celebrate soccer's rich heritage and global unity. FIFA must be praised for putting forward a visionary arrangement that will prevent a prolonged and costly bidding process.
Narrative B
Given that scandals have long marred FIFA, one can only speculate why the governing body has taken such an illogical decision that adds to its ongoing cycle of destruction against the World Cup. Supporters and players will not only have to travel up to 12K miles and spend a small fortune, this proposal will dampen the atmosphere usually found in single-nation tournaments.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that Brazil will win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
TikTok Shuts E-Commerce Service in Indonesia Following Ban
On Wednesday, TikTok Indonesia halted its online shopping service to avoid being shut down. The move followed a government order last week, which requested the app drop its e-commerce feature.
The social media giant must now obtain a license from Indonesia's Ministry of Trade and create a standalone app so it can continue operating. The country is TikTok Shop's largest e-commerce market in Southeast Asia in terms of gross merchandise value.
The move to split TikTok's e-commerce from its video-sharing service was initially part of the company's attempt to protect local physical and online retailers, while the TikTok Shop was originally piloted in Indonesia.
Narrative A
Jakarta has taken decisive action to balance e-commerce with physical market operations, protecting local shops from being squeezed out of business — TikTok has wisely adhered to the new rule. Like television networks, the video-sharing app can carry advertisements but cannot establish shops.
Narrative B
While the Indonesian government claims to be leveling the field, new regulations clearly show an alignment with established players to the detriment of disruptive micro, small, and medium enterprises that have grown through digitalization. This policy may help some underprivileged businesses but is also likely to hurt technological progress in the country.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that the US will ban TikTok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Member States Reach Deal on Migration Policy
EU member state representatives on Wednesday reached an agreement on how to address irregular immigration in crisis situations paving the way for establishing common rules on migration and asylum.
The agreement aims to ease pressure on countries like Italy, where many refugees arrive via the Mediterranean, and allow them to speed up their asylum procedures and ask EU countries for swift assistance — including financial support and relocation to other member states of the bloc.
The agreement on the so-called crisis regulation, which European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen welcomed as a "gamechanger," would, if implemented, require countries that refuse to take in asylum seekers to pay those who accept them.
Establishment-critical narrative
The EU likes to portray itself as a human rights champion, but the deal proves that this is nothing more than empty talk when it comes to itself. What is missing from the whole discussion about "illegal migration" is how to enable people in need - including thousands of children to seek EU asylum legally and safely. Instead of offering protection, the EU wants to protect itself with its increasingly punitive asylum and migration policies, while the Mediterranean has become a cemetery for people trying to reach "Fortress Europe."
Pro-establishment narrative
After years of negotiations, it is no exaggeration to describe the deal as historic. EU member countries have shown solidarity with frontline states like Italy, and the joint measures will help prevent a refugee crisis like the one in 2015. Given that 250K people have already entered the EU through irregular migration again this year, sharing the burden of migration across the EU is mandatory. The EU has taken a big step in creating a robust migration and asylum policy that also ensures a minimum set of humanitarian standards during a crisis.
Report: Global Carbon Emissions Plateau; Wind, Solar Grow
According to a report published by energy think tank Ember, carbon emissions from the global energy sector stalled in the first six months of 2023 and may peak later this year while global wind and solar power increased.
The report, which analyzed data from January to June 2023, covered 78 countries that reportedly make up about 92% of global electricity demand.
It found that the global power sector released 0.2% more carbon in the first half of 2023 than last year. However, the report also found that wind and solar energy contributed 14.3% of global electricity, up from 12.8% in 2022.
Narrative A
The impressive rise of solar and wind energy, along with other renewables, in the mix of global energy sources shows that collective action can lead to planet-saving results. Some of the world's worst polluters, like China and India, have led the way in weaning the international community from fossil fuels. The world can breathe a sigh of relief.
Narrative B
The deficit in hydropower generation shows how fickle the global renewable energy mix is. This must put the world on guard. The international community must ensure that the advances made till now are not squandered. It must remain focused on tripling the world's renewable energy capacity, which is the only thing that can pause the world's runaway warming.
Nerd narrative
There's an 85% chance that renewable energy will contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden 'Worried' That Washington Turmoil Could Upend Ukraine Aid
On Wednesday, US Pres. Joe Biden stated that current political conditions in Washington could derail future military aid to Ukraine, urging Republicans to end their infighting and back "critically important" assistance for Kyiv.
"It does worry me," Biden told reporters when asked to comment on the consequences of Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) removal from the position of House Speaker. However, Biden emphasized that bipartisan support for Ukraine remained in the chamber.
Biden revealed that he would soon deliver a "major" speech about funding for Ukraine, claiming it was “critically important for the United States and our allies that we keep our commitment."
Left narrative
Due to the instability in Congress created by Republicans, America's future assistance to Ukraine is now in jeopardy. This creates a risk that Ukraine will no longer be able to meaningfully defend itself from Russian aggression. Republicans need to end this political brinksmanship immediately.
Right narrative
Despite over $113B of US funding, the front lines in Ukraine have barely shifted in months of fighting. As such, Americans are right to ask what the strategy is and how the war will eventually be brought to a close. The US cannot be expected to continually throw money at the war, particularly with problems at home and with the national debt spiraling to over $5T.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Reports: Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet From Crimea
Following a series of Ukrainian attacks, Russia has withdrawn the majority of its Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, according to a Wall Street Journal report published on Wednesday.
Citing British intelligence officials and satellite imagery, The Telegraph has also reported that "fleet activities are likely relocating to Novorossiysk in the face of threats to Sevastopol."
Previously, the US military think tank the Institute for the Study of War had claimed that Russia had transferred at least ten vessels from Sevastopol to a port in Novorossiysk "to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in occupied Crimea."
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Reports of Russia's fleet retreats from Crimea are the latest setback for Putin as it shows that Ukraine is winning the battle for the Black Sea. The feat is even more remarkable given that Ukraine doesn't have a functioning navy but has carried out attacks using domestically manufactured sea drones and commando raids.
Pro-Russia narrative
The news of the demilitarization of the Russian Black Sea fleet is just Western propaganda. Moscow doesn't comment on the positions and possible transfers of personnel and equipment of its defense ministry, as the revelations would put both assets and personnel at risk of attack.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Opening Statements Presented in Bankman-Fried Trial
On Wednesday, opening statements were made in front of a jury of 10 women and two men in the criminal trial of former cryptocurrency entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried in a downtown Manhattan courtroom.
Bankman-Fried, who founded the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, and sister hedge fund Alameda Research, is accused of diverting billions of FTX customers’ money to risky trades at Alameda and unlawful purchases.
Prosecutors estimated Bankman-Fried took more than $10B from unsuspecting customers, with lead prosecutor Thane Rehn describing Bankman-Fried’s actions as "a massive fraud" committed to "make himself even richer."
Narrative A
There was no fraud committed here. Anyone investing with FTX knew the risks involved and was informed about their money being shared with Alameda. All decisions made by Bankman-Fried were made above board, and had it not been for a run on FTX it would still be rolling along.
Narrative B
Whether the defense tries to paint Bankman-Fried as a good-faith actor or a naive math nerd, there are numerous technical reasons not to believe the story Bankman-Fried’s lawyers are telling. What it comes down to is that Bankman-Fried was living in a $30M penthouse while he was betting big with clients’ money, and now their money is gone. This doesn't look good for the former crypto czar.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to at least 188 months in prison before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Layoffs Up Nearly 200% in 2023
According to a report released Thursday by the career services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, US companies laid off more than 47K employees last month, up 58% year-over-year. Over the first nine months of the year, the report said there were roughly 605K layoffs, a 198% jump from last year.
While the worst industry in this respect was the tech sector, which has had 152K layoffs so far this year, up 716% year-over-year, the retail and health sectors were second and third, laying off 71K and 53K, respectively. On a percentage basis, the media industry was right behind tech, showing a 550% increase in layoffs.
Earlier this week, the Labor Department reported an unexpected surge in job openings, with ADP announcing that private payrolls grew below forecasts at 89K. Friday's upcoming nonfarm payroll report is expected to show jobs increased by 170K in September, down 17K from August.
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite fears that the Fed's rate hikes — which were necessary in the face of record inflation — would lead to reduced spending, job cuts, and high unemployment, the actual outcome has been more positive. Inflation has decreased from 9.1% to 3.7%, and unemployment remains below 4%. Furthermore, inflation was driven more by supply disruptions from the pandemic and geopolitical events rather than overheated demand. If current trends persist, the Fed might actually achieve a soft landing.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's not the Fed but rather the bond market, particularly the year Treasury yield, that has the biggest impact on rising interest rates in everyday life. As the Fed and China have bought up most of the US's $33T debt, Americans should be concerned about when the creditors demand higher interest rates. The US Treasury yield is the most important asset in the world, but Washington continues to spend recklessly while bickering about the less consequential Fed rate.
Nerd narrative
There's a 41% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Approves New Border Wall Construction
The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it has waived 26 federal laws in South Texas in order to construct more border wall, marking a reversal from the administration’s campaign policy regarding the Southern border.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced the decision overnight in the Federal Registry, noting that the administration was waiving laws including the Clean Air Act, the Safe Drinking Water Act, and the Endangered Species Act in Starr County, Texas.
DHS Sec. Alejandro Mayorkas, a staunch critic of former Pres. Donald Trump’s border wall, said there is “an acute immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads” near the border. The announcement comes after Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported that there were more than 260K border encounters in September — a record high.
Republican narrative
After years of condescending — and false — assertions that walls “don’t work," the Biden administration has had to face the reality of the mess it created. Trump knew eight years ago that securing the border was of the utmost importance as millions of illegal migrants invaded the US unrestrained — a crisis Democrats ignored in order to gain votes. They are now finally realizing the consequences of their actions.
Democratic narrative
Despite claims to the contrary, the DHS’s decision isn't a reversal from Biden’s stance on immigration. Money had been appropriated for border wall construction years ago under the former administration, and Biden had no choice but to use the funds. The president remains adamant that physical barriers aren't an effective way to handle immigration, and his administration will continue to pursue a humane policy.