Germany, France Hold Unprecedented Retreat to Smooth EU Diplomacy
On Monday, the governments of France and Germany began a two-day retreat to discuss energy, industry, and defense, in an attempt to re-establish relations between the two largest economies in the European Union.
Other topics set to be discussed include the war in Ukraine, the transition to a carbon-neutral economy, the rise of irregular migration, and the current Middle East conflict. The two countries are also expected to begin negotiations in 2024 concerning the construction of next-generation tanks.
Ahead of negotiations next year, it is believed the two nations will discuss a German-French "main ground combat system" (MGCS). Defense News has reported that talks for a next-generation tank project will involve Düsseldorf-based company Rheinmetall and Franco-German joint venture KNDS.
Narrative A
It is critical that the two leading member states of the European Union find common ground on a range of important issues, including energy security and global competitiveness. If Europe continues to move forward without a clear sense of direction, it will be less able to assert influence in global affairs. The first step in developing a cogent European response to current issues is a strong alliance between France and Germany.
Narrative B
The Hamburg meeting should see France and Germany conclude that Europe needs to become less dependent on the US and stay out tensions between China and the US over Taiwan. The EU cannot afford the to get caught up in crises that it isn't directly affected by, as such meddling would prevent the bloc from achieving strategic autonomy. Europe must defend its interests rather than become a vassal for the US.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and/or Germany will leave the EU before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hong Kong: Flooding Rainfall From Typhoon Koinu's Remnants
On Monday, Hong Kong saw heavy rainfall and high winds from the weakening Typhoon Koinu causing inundation of many areas — just one month after the city's last devastating flood event.
Some parts of the city saw more than 150mm (5.9 in) of rainfall, forcing the shuttering of schools and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The storm also caused significant delays in transportation and stranded hundreds of travelers overnight at the Hong Kong airport.
With ground transportation shutdown, a rescue operation was launched to save a 16-year-old boy who attempted to walk home through a park in the nighttime hours.
Narrative A
While shattering records, extreme weather events consistently burden Hong Kong's residents with conditions they aren't equipped to handle. Long-term, not only will deaths increase but so will damage to infrastructure and the economy if Hong Kong's government doesn't begin to rapidly increase investments to mitigate these climate-catalyzed risks.
Narrative B
While Hong Kong is indeed facing weather-related, it's not too late to take action. Innovative city planning, carbon emissions reduction, and a combination of "blue" and "green" infrastructure within the grasp of Hong Kong's capable and technically proficient bureaucracy.
Claudia Goldin Wins Nobel Prize in Economics
On Monday, Harvard University professor Claudia Goldin was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for her research into the causes of wage and labor market inequality between men and women.
After studying more than 200 years of US data, Goldin could successfully show that variations in education and job type historically accounted for much of the gender wage gap.
Goldin, the first woman to be granted tenure at Harvard's economics department, is only the third woman to win the Nobel Prize in Economics and the first to receive it solo.
Narrative A
Claudia Goldin is a trailblazing economist whose most influential papers have concerned the history of women in their quest for career and family, coeducation in higher studies, the impact of birth control pills on career and marriage decisions, surnames after marriage as a social indicator, and why women now comprise the majority of undergraduates. This well-deserved Nobel award merits commendation.
Narrative B
While Goldin's award deserves maximum recognition, it must be asked why have so few women been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, given that women make up half of humanity? The Nobel Prize is an outdated mode of scientific recognition that was historically — and remains — biased towards men and those working in the Western world. It's time the Nobel is replaced entirely with an award that incentivizes cooperation and eliminates the bias against women.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that an AI will have won a Nobel prize by 2067 for the first time, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Morocco: IMF, World Bank Hold Annual Meeting
A month after experiencing a deadly earthquake that killed nearly 3K people and caused $11.7B in damages, Morocco on Monday began hosting a week-long meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.
This is the first time in five decades that the world’s most powerful lenders are holding their annual meeting in Africa — purportedly a response to criticism that developing nations in the continent have been underrepresented in the two financial institutions.
After two postponements due to COVID, the meeting kicked off in Marrakech with a focus on discussing a host of challenges facing the global economy, including war, inequality, and climate change.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite its statements and symbolic gestures, the IMF has spent 50 years failing Africa and other developing countries, while doing little to seek sustainable reforms. The IMF believes that its loans grant it the right to essentially control the economies of African nations and impose its neoliberal economic model. The IMF has put African economies into a cycle of debt and dependence — it must meaningfully change its policies instead of simply virtue signaling.
Pro-establishment narrative
The IMF and World Bank are deeply committed to Africa’s development and understand how important Africa's prosperity is to global prosperity. The two lenders have decided to hold their meeting in the continent to display how integral international cooperation is for the continent’s growth. The two have also committed to increasing support for the mounting challenges facing developing nations and are creating policies to reduce the global wealth gap and bring about sustainable solutions.
Israel Regains Control of Towns Near Gaza
Israel's military claimed Monday that its troops had regained control of all settlements bordering the Gaza Strip reportedly attacked by Hamas fighters.
On Saturday, Hamas gunmen infiltrated at least 22 towns in southern Israel — some as far as 15 miles (24 km) away from the Gaza border — and reportedly took civilians and soldiers hostage.
In response to the shock incursion, Israel ordered a "complete siege" on Gaza and cut off all the Palestinians' electricity, food, and fuel.
Pro-Israel narrative
The latest terror attacks were unprecedented and were an assault on Israeli sovereignty and security. As a result, the IDF is fully entitled to carry out sweeping attacks on Gaza and enforce the blockade to ensure that nothing of this magnitude ever happens again.
Pro-Palestine narrative
This tragic violence was incubated after decades of death and destruction imposed on Palestinians by Israel, which made Gaza into a veritable open-air prison. Israel will now impose a fierce "retaliation," which will not be condemned equally — showing the deep hypocrisy of the West and creating a humanitarian cataclysm.
Nerd narrative
There's a 58% chance that Hamas will lose control of Gaza before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Backtracks on Palestinian Aid Freeze Following Hamas Attack
Five hours after it was announced on Monday that the European Union had immediately frozen all financial support to Palestinians, the European Commission walked its position back — denying any suspension while payments of development aid are under review into whether they are being misused.
Chief spokesman Eric Mamer has claimed that Hungary's European Commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi, took to social media without consulting with any other senior officials inside the executive body of the EU, blaming him for the public relations glitch.
Foreign ministers from the 27 EU countries held on Tuesday an emergency meeting to try to resolve divisions within the bloc over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with top diplomat Josep Borrell reportedly inviting Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and his Palestinian counterpart Riyal al-Maliki.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The EU would have betrayed its own values if this botched decision hadn't been corrected by the European Commission, as aid to Palestinians in need has nothing to do with the Israel-Hamas war. Europe must refrain from punishing an entire people, focusing instead on development and humanitarian assistance projects for the people of Gaza.
Pro-Israel narrative
There are some potentially problematic elements in these European development projects, including textbooks that have an anti-Israel bias. Even though the European Commission has backtracked on suspending all payments, a review of development program activities has been announced — which is a prudent step.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1.4% chance that Israel will join the EU before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Car Rams Into Chinese Consulate in San Francisco
On Monday, San Francisco police shot and killed a man who crashed his car into the lobby of the Chinese consulate.
Police say that the crash happened at around 3:09 p.m. local time when an unidentified suspect drove his car into the visa office of the Consulate General of the People's Republic of China. Witnesses say around 20 people were present, but no one besides the driver was injured.
Police are coordinating with investigators from the US State Department and the Chinese Consulate, though, as of Tuesday morning, the identity of the driver, the motive for the crash, and the details of the shooting are still not publicly known.
Pro-establishment narrative
Although the details are yet to be fully released, the suspect seemingly set out to cause damage to the consulate's property and likely intended to cause grievous bodily injury to those inside. Luckily, local police were able to contain this situation, and the US is working quickly to deal with the incident and find answers regarding the motive and the identity of the suspect.
Establishment-critical narrative
While a swift investigation is a must, the San Francisco Chinese Consulate's history of similar violent incidents calls into question the efficacy of the US security. Rather than merely reacting to such incidents, the US must take preventative measures to ensure the safety of its consulate staff before such occurrences tarnish US diplomacy.
Biden Interviewed by Docs Case Special Counsel
The White House on Monday announced that Pres. Joe Biden was interviewed by Justice Dept. (DOJ) special counsel Robert Hur, who is investigating Biden's potential mishandling of classified documents.
Biden was interviewed voluntarily at the White House over Sunday and Monday about the documents, which were found at his Delaware home and a private office and dated to his days as a senator and vice president.
The White House has said that Biden, who maintains he was surprised by the discovery of the documents, has cooperated throughout Hur’s investigation.
Republican narrative
Any hope that Biden’s DOJ — even with a special counsel leading the investigation — was going to charge Biden with the same crimes Smith is charging Trump with was clearly misguided. It appears that Hur’s team is already leaning toward chalking Biden’s document retention to carelessness — a term used when the DOJ decided not to charge Hilary Clinton for her misdeeds. Clearly, there’s a double standard at play here.
Democratic narrative
There are vast differences between the two special counsel cases. Biden has cooperated from the start, first revealing the discovery of the documents and now agreeing to speak with Hur. Trump, in contrast, refused to turn over the documents and continues to claim he had the right to retain them or that he had the power to declassify them. This isn’t unequal justice; it’s the way the system works.
Kari Lake to Announce Senate Run
On Tuesday night, Republican Kari Lake, a former TV news anchor who lost the race for governor of Arizona last year, is expected to announce her run for US Senate in that state.
Lake, a staunch ally of former Pres. Donald Trump, has frequently repeated his highly controversial claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen and declined to concede her defeat to Gov. Katie Hobbs on similar claims.
Lake last week filed paperwork to run for the seat currently held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat. The GOP primary field currently also includes Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
Republican narrative
Lake is a candidate who could win this election based on name recognition alone after her storied career as a newscaster in Arizona. But she’s more than just a popular figure; she stands up for what she believes – as she showed during her interaction with Gallego – and has the type of energy and presence that woos the public and racks up votes.
Democratic narrative
Lake has already lost one statewide election, and voters are tired of her continuing to look back at the past rather than informing them on what she can do for them moving forward. She’s a one-note candidate whose one-note – election integrity – has been thoroughly disproven. Republicans have no shot to win if they pick Lake as their nominee.
Former MLB Star Steve Garvey Enters Calif. Senate Race
Former baseball star Steve Garvey announced Tuesday that he's running for California’s vacant Senate seat to replace late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Garvey is running as a Republican and hopes to be the first member of the GOP to win a Senate race in the state since 1988.
Garvey, 74, announced his campaign launch in a video in which he heavily alluded to his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. In the video, Garvey said that he "never played for Democrats or Republicans or independents," saying he played "for all of you."
Despite queries from Republicans and Democrats, Garvey said he never considered running for office until now. He expressed his concerns about issues plaguing Californians such as quality of life, crime, and education; he also called out the impacts COVID policies had on children's education.
Republican narrative
California has been driven into a state of disarray by years of inept Democratic leadership, and Steve Garvey is the perfect commonsense candidate to represent the state in the Senate and restore sanity. Garvey is extremely beloved in the Golden State for his contributions on the baseball diamond, and his character is as impeccable as his career was. It's time for a change in California, and if anyone can bring victory for the GOP in California, it's Garvey and his star power.
Democratic narrative
While Steve Garvey may try to distance himself from Donald Trump and the extreme wing of the GOP, he in fact has a lot in common with other extremist candidates like Trump and former NFL star Herschel Walker. Garvey is trying to become the latest cult of personality that runs on a Republican platform of polarization. While California generally votes blue, Garvey’s celebrity status makes him dangerous.