Mexico's First Nonbinary Magistrate Found Dead
Jesús Ociel Baena, Mexico's first openly nonbinary judge, was found dead in the central state of Aguascalientes on Monday alongside another person identified by local media as the magistrate's partner, Dorian Herrera.
The state prosecutor's office initially ruled the deaths as murder-suicide — a hypothesis that received fierce backlash from the victims' family and friends — before changing tune and claiming that drugs may have been involved.
Narrative A
Mexican authorities have a shady record of dismissing murders as crimes of passion in a pattern that risks being repeated in this tragic case. Rather than doing their due diligence, authorities initially sought to reach a quick conclusion — a move that only serves to aggravate the prejudices that often fuel crimes against minorities.
Narrative B
Although there's a lot of attention to Baena's death due to their gender identity, preliminary findings show no evidence of a third party at the scene, meaning the deaths could have been down to a personal matter. No theories should be thrown out, nor should any conclusions be reached, until authorities — who are making every effort to investigate all avenues — find out more.
US House Passes Stopgap Bill to Prevent Government Shutdown
The US House of Representatives passed Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) short-term, clean continuing resolution, 336 to 95, on Tuesday to keep funding flowing into early next year and prevent a looming government shutdown.
The required supermajority threshold was easily cleared as 209 Democrats and 127 Republicans joined to approve the legislation under special expedited procedures, overcoming the opposition of 93 Republicans — including those in the House Freedom Caucus — and two Democrats who were against it.
Democratic narrative
As infighting within the House GOP conference intensifies even after the promotion of Speaker Mike Johnson, Democrats have had to save the day once again by rallying behind this Republican bill in a bid to prevent a disruptive government shutdown. If Johnson doesn't want to end up like his predecessor Kevin McCarthy, he must realize that he has to be thankful to his Democratic colleagues and negotiate with them.
Republican narrative
Though Speaker Mike Johnson has succeeded in his first big challenge, he simply can't rely on help from the Democrats. It's obvious that they will do nothing to help a Republican politically even if that move would be good for the country — and McCarthy is the latest proof of that. That said, Johnson is still in his honeymoon phase with his GOP colleagues and has strong conservative credentials.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that there will be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ukrainian Lawmaker Arrested on Suspicion of Russia-Linked Treason
A Ukrainian lawmaker was this week formally notified by authorities that he was under suspicion of treason, according to a video posted on his Telegram channel. Filmed as a member of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) stood behind him, Oleksandr Dubinsky said that a Kyiv court had ordered him detained for 60 days.
In a statement the same day, the SBU did not name Dubinsky but alleged that a Ukrainian politician joined a criminal organization financed by Russian military intelligence. It further alleged that this group received in excess of $10M from Russia and was tasked with spreading disinformation about Ukrainian political and military leadership, including claims that high-ranking Ukrainian officials were interfering in US presidential elections.
Left narrative
The three Ukrainians charged by the SBU of receiving funding from Russian intelligence to carry out their subversive activities were key allies of Trump-ally Rudy Giuliani. This is just further evidence of the Trump campaign's collusion with Russia.
Right narrative
Rudy Giuliani had contacted these three Ukrainians to find evidence of corruption in the country on the part of then-Vice Pres. Joe Biden and his son Hunter, then on the board of a Ukrainian energy company. Republicans are further investigating these allegations in the House. These charges smell of political persecution.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Signs Trade Pact With Florida
UK Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a new trade pact on Tuesday in a move that Badenoch said will allow "huge opportunities" within Britain's "rapidly expanding tech sector."
The UK has stated that the deal will focus on fintech, artificial intelligence, and legal services. While state-level trade deals cannot reduce federal tariffs, Florida holds the US' fourth largest GDP — approximately equal to Spain.
Right narrative
Through a trade deal with Florida, Badenoch and the UK has secured another Brexit win. Targeting high-potential sectors within an incredibly wealthy part of the US, the UK's focus on individual state agreements as it continues to search for a broader deal with the US federal government continues to win new opportunities for the British economy.
Left narrative
The UK government's promised US trade deal within three years of 2019 hasn't materialized, and state deals cannot provide the tariff reductions that the UK so desperately desires. While a deal with Florida is positive, there is slow progress in achieving the real agreement that Britain is searching for across the pond.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that the UK will rejoin the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
North Korea Tests New Solid-Fuel Engines for IRBMs
North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Wednesday that static tests of a new high-thrust solid-fuel engine for its intermediate ballistic missiles (IRBM) have been successfully conducted, stressing the strategic importance of solid-fuel missiles.
The results were reportedly highly satisfactory for both the inaugural first-stage engine test conducted on Nov. 11 and for the second-stage engine on Tuesday, boosting confidence in the goal of reliably developing a new IRBM this year.
Pro-establishment narrative
This latest test confirms that Kim Jong Un is trying to strengthen his military's ability to conduct sneak attacks on Western allies, a move that must raise alarm bells all across the region. Though Pyongyang's missile program may not yet have all the technology needed to make pinpoint, targeted, long-distance strikes, arms cooperation with Russia could enhance the threat of its missile and nuclear programs. The US, South Korea, and Japan must now prepare for how it would respond militarily should Kim decide to attack.
Establishment-critical narrative
The so-called freedom-loving West has selected a few countries to bad-mouth — North Korea, Russia, and China — while doing exactly what it accuses them of doing. The US and UK have both sent illegal cluster bombs and depleted uranium bombs to Ukraine to drop on Russians, and Japan and South Korea are building up their military capabilities while conducting provocative exercises with the US. The G7 nations are bullies who only care about de-escalation when it's them calling on others to de-escalate.
Nerd narrative
There's a 13% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israeli Forces Enter Gaza's Largest Hospital
Israeli forces entered al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City early on Wednesday in what they characterized as a "precise and targeted operation" against Hamas, only hours after the US backed its claims that the militant group was using the hospital as a command center. International aid agencies expressed alarm, with the head of the World Health Organization (WHO), describing reports of an incursion as "deeply concerning."
The Israeli military claimed that it found weapons in the hospital's basement after clashing with Palestinian militants. A top official at the hospital said Israeli forces were still operating inside the facility and that civilians were still present inside as well; the Israeli military said that it would provide medical assistance to patients and safe passage for civilians.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel has presented evidence that terrorists from Hamas have placed their headquarters underneath hospitals in Gaza, specifically to use civilians at the facilities as human shields. Indeed, the US has also verified that Hamas is using al-Shifa as a command center. Despite this, Israel, which has the right to defend its borders, is doing everything it can to minimize harm to the civilian population and provide aid while conducting critical military operations.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Even if Israel's claims that Hamas is using hospitals as bases of operations are valid, it has an obligation under international law to protect hospitals during armed conflict. As Israel is committing horrendous human rights violations in Gaza, the international community must step up efforts to end the assault on Palestinians and work to address a humanitarian cataclysm.
Nerd narrative
There's a 37% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Nominates 5 More Judges, 1st Muslim Appellate Court Judge
US Pres. Joe Biden announced five more judicial nominees on Wednesday, adding to the more than 150 already confirmed by the Senate. If confirmed, they would include the first Muslim-American circuit court judge and the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals' first openly LGBTQ+ judge.
Adeel A. Mangi, a Muslim Harvard- and Oxford-trained lawyer, was nominated to sit on the Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. He has written multiple amicus briefs, including one to block former Pres. Donald Trump's travel ban on Muslim-majority countries and another to block an attempt at diverting federal funds to build a border wall.
Democratic narrative
Joe Biden has fought harder for and achieved more successful confirmations of diverse judicial nominees than any other president. He knows the importance of a judiciary representing both the ethnic backgrounds of the American people, which is why he's chosen the first Muslim, LGBTQ+, and Black women for their respective courts. He's also selected public defenders and civil rights lawyers to expand the breadth of legal backgrounds of America's federal judges.
Republican narrative
Since promising to nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court, Biden has inadvertently stained the confirmations of his entire historically diverse group of judicial nominees. Rather than Americans focusing on the Ivy League background of, say, Ketanji Brown Jackson, they look at her as a token Black woman due to Biden's pandering during his campaign. It's important to not only select the most competent candidate but also publicly highlight that candidate based on said competency rather than immutable characteristics.
Report: 25% of Somalia's Population Faces Climate-Exacerbated Hunger
On Tuesday, the World Food Programme (WFP) reported that a quarter of the Somali population is facing "crisis-level hunger or worse" with conditions exacerbated by drought and floods.
The WFP estimates that 4.3M people will be forced into starvation by the end of the year as they have yet to recover from record-breaking drought and are now facing catastrophic flooding. Malnutrition levels have soared to reach their greatest height in over 10 years.
Pro-establishment narrative
Millions of people across the Horn of Africa are hanging on by a thread being threatened each day with death by hunger. Climate impacts coupled with conflict and displacement are creating an untenable crisis. Not only have crops and livestock been destroyed, but Ukraine —which serves as the breadbasket of the world — has been cut off. The international community, with all of its robust capabilities, is trying the very best it can with this extraordinary set of complex challenges in the region.
Establishment-critical narrative
Record-low commitments from Western nations have left the global south feeling left out and betrayed as they watch residents die from preventable malnutrition and disease. The West should be ashamed of hiding behind "donor fatigue." This phrase being tossed about is a false claim when the truth is that committing to humanitarian aid is more about political will. Choosing not to help is a choice that pays a price in real human life.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be at least 435.5 PPM in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Haley Clarifies Social Media Name Verification Stance
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who’s currently running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, has slightly walked back her proposal that social media platforms forbid anonymous posting.
Haley, in a Fox News interview Tuesday, called anonymous social media posts a “national security threat” and said that if she wins the presidency, she’ll require social media platforms to verify their users and show their algorithms.
Narrative A
Haley’s proposal is grossly unconstitutional. Anonymous speech is a vital piece of free speech, and some of America’s greatest early heroes used pseudonyms to express their opinions without the fear of being harassed or worse. If conservatives are going to continue to stand up for their beliefs, the nation needs more free speech, not less.
Narrative B
Haley’s critics are misinterpreting her proposal and the constitution. She’s trying hard to stop foreign actors — including China and Iran — from creating multiple accounts in an effort to spread misinformation that will harm the US. In addition, First Amendment protection might apply to the government requiring social media verification, but private companies are free to establish their own terms of service.
Trump's Lawyers Request Mistrial in N.Y. Fraud Case
Former Pres. Donald Trump and his family are requesting a mistrial be declared in his New York civil case, claiming that Judge Arthur Engoron and his clerk are biased against the defendants. Trump's lawyers filed the request for a new trial on Wednesday.
Attorneys for Trump, his sons Donald Jr. and Eric, the Trump organization, and its top executives argue that "the evidence of apparent and actual bias" in the case is “tangible and overwhelming.” A 30-page filing in the Manhattan Supreme Court cites instances of Engoron and his clerk demonstrating their bias against the GOP frontrunner for the 2024 US presidential nomination.
Democratic narrative
Donald Trump and his attorneys are trying to pull out every trick in the book to avoid responsibility for the defendants' decades of fraud. In his typical bullying fashion, Trump has attacked Judge Engoron and his principal law clerk while riling up his violent MAGA base. The former president continues to obstruct justice to save his business empire and avoid responsibility for his actions.
Republican narrative
The evidence of Judge Engoron and his law clerk's overt political bias against former Pres. Donald Trump is overwhelming, and a mistrial is necessary to redeem any semblance of fairness in a so-called "justice" system that has lost the public's trust. Outside of the rabid anti-Trump base that wants the former president sidelined at all costs, most Americans recognize the political witch hunt that Trump is enduring.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that on Election Day 2024, Donald Trump will be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.