Anti-Trump narrative

Although it’s scary to imagine Trump’s return to the White House, these recent surveys — a year out from the election — don’t reflect a resounding Trump win and their predictions are easily avoided. Biden may take a hit if certain non-White younger voters decide not to vote, but all he has to do is motivate the traditional Democratic base, and his second term will be safe.

Pro-Trump narrative

Biden is on a rapid decline while Trump is on the upswing. This poll — like a sea of others — shows Democrats still don’t understand their voters’ desires, let alone the resurging significance of Trump's base. And Democrats should be even more concerned if a third-party candidate stays in the race until the end.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 45% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the tentative agreement between Ford and the UAW may have some meaningful pay raises and benefits on the surface, the deal does not adequately compensate long-time employees for all sacrifices dating back to the 2008 financial crisis. Most of the pay increases only make up for the losses incurred by workers over the last 15 years and the agreement also fails to take care of Ford retirees. Ford needs to step up its offer to end the strike for good.

Pro-establishment narrative

Any Ford employee in Kentucky would be insanely unreasonable to reject the investment and benefits that come with the new UAW agreement. Employees will see a 25% increase in pay over the next four years and Ford will invest billions into the Louisville-area plants to continue growth. Ford is already taking major losses and labor cost increases as part of this deal, and meeting any further demands just isn’t possible.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 12.1% of American workers will be represented by a labor union in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While Nepal may find itself pulled between India and China, the concern isn’t about misuse of sensitive data but domestic harmony. As the toxic content on TikTok, including sexism and casteism, consistently stokes religious hatred and sexual abuse online and violence offline, the government had to shut it down.

Narrative B

Instead of regulating TikTok or holding it accountable, the government has abruptly shut it down only to stifle freedom of expression. It shows Nepal's decision is an attack on free speech, not hate speech, as journalists and activists often use TikTok to express dissatisfaction over government policies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance the US will ban TikTok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The fossil fuel industry has a track record of slowing environmental action, and this time won't be any different. As plastics are crucial for its bottom line, it's no surprise that the corporate world is pushing for recycling over production cuts — an effort that studies have shown doesn't work. While these negotiations are an admirable effort, finding a balance between what should be done and appeasing global oil leaders like Saudi Arabia won't be easy.

Narrative B

The world is reaching its global saturation point, and something must be done, particularly as it's the poor who bear the brunt of plastic pollution. Rich nations have long sent their waste to be thrown away or recycled abroad, and studies show that the quantities involved are grossly underestimated. The havoc this takes on the health of people in poor nations is untold. The negotiations in Nairobi must be finalized.

Pro-establishment narrative

Monday's announcement of a roadmap to return to constitutional order in Gabon is good news. The US welcomes that Nguema appears to be honoring his commitment to restore civilian rule. If Libreville makes further progress toward democracy, the suspension of aid might be reconsidered. However, in addition to democratic elections, the military leaders must also address the country's economic and social woes. Washington will follow the process closely and continue to stand in solidarity with the Gabonese people in their struggle for democracy.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the so-called "international community" demands elections in Gabon, it often ignores the origins of military coups in Africa. Ali Bongo's rule was by no means democratic and his overthrow was supported by large parts of the population frustrated by the lack of any democratic dividend. Former colonial powers such as France are also playing a role by supporting dubious elections and incompetent leaders in order to maintain their influence. People want democracy, but most of all, they hope for an improvement in their living conditions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that France will send its military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

There's no reason to celebrate the Supreme Court's self-imposed code of ethics. A lack of an enforcement mechanism — leaving judges to decide whether they have violated their own rules –—means that, in reality, nothing has changed. Language by the justices accusing America of "misunderstanding" what many view as clear cases of public corruption portrays arrogance, and pressure must continue to be applied in order for real reform to occur.

Republican narrative

SCOTUS reforms will never be able to go far enough to appease the left, which has launched a sustained campaign to undermine the court's every move and diminish its power. In an effort to delegitimize the nation's highest court, Democrats and their media allies have been trying to gin up controversy about conservative justices who dare to rule against their woke social agenda. Caving to their outlandish demands will only further incentivize them.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that a US Supreme Court justice will be impeached or removed before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

One of the strengths of the State Department is its diversity of views, which staff are always encouraged to continuously make known. Secretary Blinken and upper management are listening to those views which will be used to inform the State Department's policy decisions. The Biden administration wants to support its ally Israel while also maintaining a safe future for the Palestinian people.

Establishment-critical narrative

In aiding and abetting Israeli attacks on Gaza, which UN officials have already warned may breach international law, the US may be just as legally culpable if they provide direct military support. Some argue those crimes reach the threshold of genocide. The US needs to rethink its current stance and call for an immediate ceasefire.

Narrative C

While the death toll on both sides of the conflict are horrendous, there's no evidence that Israel is committing genocide. Playing fast and loose with the term is a dangerous maneuver that not only waters down the horrors of genocide but also acts as a distraction that risks escalating the conflict's global spillover.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline and medicine in Gaza by January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Following empty promises and an unsuccessful first term as president, it's time for Weah to go. A poor economy and unchecked corruption remain Liberia's primary concerns six years later, and Weah has only shown that he's not adept at finding solutions to these problems. As the threat of military coups continues to loom over many West African states, Liberia must use its democratic autonomy to vote for positive change instead of the status quo.

Narrative B

Though Weah's first term in office may not have been exceptional, he succeeded in maintaining both the country's political and macroeconomic stability. He has also improved security with little to no external support, contributed to regional peace, and consistently passed the Millennium Challenge Corporation scorecards. Additionally, he's the only candidate who has the strength and energy to heal the nation from polarization.

Anti-China narrative

After years of allowing the flow of precursor chemicals to Mexican cartels to fuel the fentanyl crisis that has decimated multiple American cities, Xi Jinping has apparently agreed to clean his own mess. And while this agreement is certainly a positive breakthrough, it's vital to understand that Beijing will stop enforcing the fentanyl deal if Washington ever criticizes Xi or the Chinese Communist Party.

Pro-China narrative

Hopefully, the US seems to have come to its senses after unreasonably imposing sanctions on Chinese institutions and individuals that were allegedly connected to the US homemade fentanyl crisis. Progress was made when both countries cooperated in good faith, so it would be great news if Washington finally decided to restore cooperation in the arena of drug control.

Nerd narrative

There's a 6% chance that if World War 3 happens before 2060, the US and China will be on the same side, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

While cooling inflation is good news to the average American, this news should not get Joe Biden's hopes up. Everyone from corporate economists to the average voter — 80% of whom currently think the economy is either "fair" or "poor" — is very aware of our high gas prices, grocery prices, and national debt. There are many reasons Biden is now lagging behind Trump in the polls, but the economic situation is going to be the hardest to distance himself from.

Democratic narrative

While Americans haven't been able to separate Biden from their past two years of inflationary struggles quite yet, the fact is that the national economy has been roaring back quarter after quarter to the tune of rising employment, family net worths, and union worker wages — the last of which will play an important role for the president when facing off against Trump who has historically performed well with blue-collar workers. As economic stress continues to lessen, Biden and his "Bidenomics" will be in a much better spot heading into the 2024 race.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.