Narrative A

Iceland is prone to earthquakes and high volcanic activity because it's located on a tectonic boundary between the North American and Eurasian plates on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Not much can be done to protect the country from toxic volcanic hazards and hot molten lava, which puts the lives of residents and infrastructure at risk.

Narrative B

While there's no way to accurately predict when exactly an earthquake will occur or whether and where magma might reach the surface, Iceland can reduce casualties and infrastural damage if it stops using its volcanic eruptions to lure tourists who livestream videos of the dangerous natural wonder to serve fresh lava to their Instagram and TikTok profiles.

Pro-establishment narrative

This situation certainly has taken a turn for the worse, with millions forced from their homes and the Sudanese health system at risk of collapse. Many also fear that the conflict could spread to neighboring countries. Foreign military influence from the Russian Wagner Group and the United Arab Emirates further risks deepening the rivalry at the core of the crisis. The first step toward peace must be negotiations between parties to end hostilities.

Establishment-critical narrative

Sudan's problems stem not from Russia and the UAE or local warring factions who pop up out of nowhere, but rather from Western meddling dating back a century or more. Western governments so "kindly" offering humanitarian aid today are the same ones who toyed with Sudan for decades solely to steal its resources and combat China's rise in the region. The West's involvement didn't end after the UK gave Sudan its independence, it just transferred control to the US State Department and CIA.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 10K deaths in the Sudan conflict in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Johnson has neither the experience nor leeway to unite his conference and pass this extension that would dangerously set up the US for two shutdowns. Far-right Republicans who ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy for similar actions are pushing the country into the abyss.

Republican narrative

Although a handful of House Republicans have expressed opposition to this bill, Johnson and his caucus shouldn’t be blamed for a potential shutdown. House Democrats are the ones forcing a shutdown because they know it’ll be a political win and the mainstream media will shield them from blame.

Nerd narrative

There's a 47% chance that there will be a US government shutdown before Jan. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

While the summit was intended to signal the Muslim world's unity against the alleged Israeli crimes in Gaza, it ended up showing disagreement above all. The participants not only rejected Tehran's push for sanctions against Israel because of its counter-offensive against Hamas, but they also rejected its demand to break off existing relations with Israel and to designate its army as a terrorist organization. What is preventing Muslim unity and regional peace is not Israel but the Iranian regime, which only seeks confrontation with Tel Aviv.

Pro-Iran narrative

Iran's presence at the summit was historic and highlighted how Israel's brutal campaign of collective punishment against Palestinians is not only uniting the Muslim world but also creating further rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as countries such as Egypt. The fact that there is not full consensus at such a major summit is nothing unusual and doesn't undermine the growing spirit of Muslim unity. It's not Iran but Israel and its Western sponsors who are sowing discord and have no interest in regional peace.

Nerd narrative

There's a 57% chance that Saudi Arabia will normalize its relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine is stepping up its attacks on Russian military targets and other key sites. These attacks are being carried out inside occupied areas of Ukraine, as well as in Russian territory, demonstrating to Russia that Ukraine isn't backing down any time soon.

Pro-Russia narrative

It's time for Ukraine to realize that it cannot defeat Russia militarily. The sooner they realize this, the sooner the conditions for a peaceful settlement will be created.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

It's not hyperbole to compare Trump to history's worst authoritarians when he continually speaks in the same tone and with the same vocabulary as the evil dictators of the 20th century. From claiming immigrants will "poison the country" to now calling democrats "vermin, this is a massive alarm warning of how endangered America's democracy will be if Trump is elected in 2024.

Pro-Trump narrative

Leftists have used defamatory rhetoric on Trump and Ted Cruz before which is grossly unfair. The Democrats, up to and including the party's leader Joe Biden, have tried to equate conservatism with the worst authoritarian movements in history, which is ironically the same tactic used by the most evil autocratic regimes.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 42% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Sunak's latest reshuffle screams only of desperation. While finally axing the hate-filled home secretary, the revival of Cameron from the political graveyard merely reaffirms that the Conservative Party has nothing more to offer than status quo incompetency. Albeit dramatic, today's changes will do little as Labour continues to head towards a landslide victory similar to 1997.

Right narrative

While today's bold decisions by Sunak do not come without their dangers, the shocking return of David Cameron at the indirect expense of Suella Braverman will be viewed as an excellent coup. Sunak has, for now, pushed back against his party's right wing while acquiring a political giant in return. While Cameron's foreign policy legacy is by no means smooth, it's his experience that Sunak will draw upon as a general election continues to loom over UK politics.

Conservative narrative

The sacking of Braverman, a leader of the UK's silent majority, has led to fury. Sunak continues to act with in bad faith, and it is he, rather than the now-former home secretary, who should be finding his way out the door. Braverman executed her job the way Britains actually wanted, but Sunak would rather quiver in the face of liberal criticism than pursue actual popular policies on immigration and policing — including properly policing Pro-Palestine demonstrations.

Nerd narrative

There is a 67% chance that the UK will have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

If someone still had any doubts over why McCarthy was ousted, this interview has unequivocally demonstrated his inability to hold the gavel — and even to seat in Congress. He appears not to understand that he was fired because he failed to align with what the GOP base instructs and make good on his promises while spending taxpayers' money.

Narrative B

While McCarthy isn't irreplaceable, his potential retirement from Congress is another indication that the era when the GOP valued its diversity and embraced good-faith disagreements may be gone forever. Matt Gaetz and his Gang of Eight are willing to push the Republican conference to the extremes, even if that means risking the implosion of the party and losing control of the House.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Republicans will win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

After spending nearly 27 months in federal prison, Chansley is no longer the same person he was when he stormed the U.S. Capitol shirtless. He has served his time and expressed remorse for his crimes. He has been rehabilitated and is well within his rights to run for political office. Chansley's image was smeared by the left-leaning mass media and he has turned over a new chapter in his life story.

Democratic narrative

Not only is Chansley "the face" of the January 6th insurrection at the US Capitol, he is a felon. Despite serving his time in federal prison, he still participated in a violent riot and used his platform to share hateful and baseless conspiracy theories. The fact that he is even attempting a run for US Congress shows the true dangers of far-right politics in America.

Nerd narrative

There's a 34% chance that the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has presented evidence that terrorists from Hamas have placed their headquarters underneath the al-Shifa Hospital, specifically with the aim of using the civilians at the facility as human shields. Israel is doing everything it can to minimize harm to the civilian population. After Hamas's heinous attack on Israel, the country has the right to ensure its security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Even if Israel's claims that Hamas is using al-Shifa as a base of operations are true, it still has an obligation under international humanitarian law to prevent unnecessary harm to civilians and should not attack the hospital under any circumstances. It seems that Israel is committing abhorrent human rights violations in Gaza, namely collective punishment, and the international community must do more to stop this war on Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Although GOP voters seemed to like Scott and his positive vibes, they didn’t want him as president — preferring instead the fire and brimstone rhetoric of Trump. As Trump’s challengers start to fall away and his hefty lead continues to hold, it's apparent that Republicans are going to bank on voters tiring of Pres. Biden rather than nominating a challenger with positivity who appeals to a wider audience.

Republican narrative

Although Scott's campaign never gained traction with the GOP electorate, it served its purpose of showing Republicans how to put "woke" Democrats in their place, and how to approach issues of race and class with nuance. Scott hopefully attracted voters of color to the GOP, and that will likely pay off for Trump in the general election.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 90% chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.