Pro-Trump narrative

The Colorado plaintiffs have made up their own definition of insurrection in another failed attempt to keep Trump off the ballot. While the judge's ruling is undoubtedly a victory for the former president, her insurrection opinion is a concerning echo of the left's falsehoods about the riots.

Anti-Trump narrative

Donald Trump took the presidential oath of office on Jan. 20, 2017, swearing to preserve, protect, and defend the US Constitution. Instead, he engaged in an elaborate scheme to overturn the results of a free and fair election. For months, he spread disinformation about the validity of the 2020 election results. He has no place on the ballot.

Nerd narrative

There's a 41% chance that Donald Trump will be removed or blocked from the primary electoral ballot of a US state under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by July 15, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Argentines have chosen to take a risky leap in the dark as they desperately seek to resolve the country's worst economic crisis in decades. There's a significant risk that Argentina and its democratic institutions will collapse under Milei's leadership, especially if the erratic populist makes good on his promise to radically try to transform the economy.

Right narrative

Argentina used to be one of the wealthiest nations in the world, but Peronism has destroyed the economy and badly damaged its democratic institutions over the past eight decades. Milei's victory represents the ultimate defeat of a corrupt system, as the nation wants real change and for the country to return to a path of normality.

Pro-establishment narrative

Rosalynn Carter was a devoted mother and wife, but also a great humanitarian, public servant, and global leader. She will be recognized for her vast efforts in championing those who often didn't have a voice for themselves; including those with mental health issues and disabilities. She will be long remembered on the world stage among nations, organizations, and citizens of the United States and beyond.

Establishment-critical narrative

The enduring legacies of Rosalynn Carter and her husband Jimmy are also a reminder that times have changed a great deal since the Carters embraced true populism in the White House. The Carters nurtured an establishment-critical stance touching on issues related to anti-war protests, civil rights, and other issues — actions that no administration has quite embodied since. In this challenging historic moment, Rosalynn Carter's life's work shows just how far today's institutions have to go to rebuild trust with the American people.

Nerd narrative

There is a 48% chance that Joe Biden will be re-elected President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Iran narrative

By accusing Iran of being the mastermind behind the hijacking of the Israeli-linked freighter, Tel Aviv is merely trying to conceal the regional dimension of Muslim resistance against Israel's devastating aggression in Gaza. The hijacking of the ship underlines that the Houthis are an autonomous force serious about fighting alongside the Palestinians. If Israel wants to avoid total defeat and an incalculable regional expansion of the conflict, it must stop its campaign of collective punishment immediately.

Anti-Iran narrative

The hijacking of this freighter is the latest episode in the broad regional campaign by Iranian-backed proxies to threaten Israel's existence. Iran is now building on its questionable expertise in hijacking free world cargo ships in the Red Sea. Since Tehran has yet to face any consequences, it's now using its dangerous Houthi forces to escalate the Gaza war and jeopardize world trade. It's time the international community puts Iran and its proxies in their place to prevent a regional escalation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2.5% chance that Israel will carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's the West, particularly the US, that has been pushing Bosnia's Republika Srpska for independence, as Washington insists on old imperialist tricks to bully pro-Russian politicians and to force them to recognize a non-approved high example in Sarajevo that has sought to empower a central government.

Pro-establishment narrative

Tensions across the Balkans have recently mounted to the brink of a military confrontation, as Russia has resorted to its longtime ally Serbia to open another front in Europe and test Western commitment to that region. Though many NATO allies may want not to divert focus from Ukraine by now, a swift decisive action to address ongoing crises in the Balkans is needed to prevent further problems and costs.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that more than 500 combatants will die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

If Hsiao Bi-khim becomes Taiwan's vice president, she wouldn't pursue more sovereignty for its people but rather prop up her Western economic and military partners. In her previous positions of governmental influence, Hsiao purposefully instigated Beijing to build confrontational public opinion and endanger people across the straits. Her goal isn't peace — it's to grow her personal power at the expense of the mainland and its neighboring citizens.

Anti-China narrative

If there were a perfect résumé for the vice president, Hsiao would have it. After graduating from Columbia University in the 1990s, she began her foreign affairs career as head of the DPP's liaison office in the US, after which she excelled in both lawmaking and international diplomacy as a legislator at home and lead ambassador to Washington for more than a decade. Hsiao has proven herself a patriot throughout her entire career, and now she's prepared to defend her country against Beijing from the executive office.

Nerd narrative

There is a 54% chance that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Derek Chauvin received a fair trial and a just sentence. Chauvin received due process and must now deal with the consequences of his actions while he is in prison. This case proves that no one, not even a police officer, is above the law. This ruling is angering many on the right which shows the continued issues with systemic racism in America as shown by this historic case.

Right narrative

Chauvin's trial was obviously not fair or unbiased. The case received extensive pre-trial publicity that likely poisoned the jury pool and it would be naive to say that the threat of violence evidenced did not have an influence on the jury's decisions. Armored cars and National Guard troops were needed to keep the peace, and this case should be reheard in light of the new evidence.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has presented evidence that terrorists from Hamas have placed their headquarters underneath hospitals in Gaza, specifically to use civilians at the facilities as human shields. Indeed, the US has also verified that Hamas is using al-Shifa as a command center. Despite this, Israel, which has the right to defend its borders, is doing everything it can to minimize harm to the civilian population and provide aid while conducting critical military operations.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Even if Israel's claims that Hamas is using hospitals as bases of operations are valid, it has an obligation under international law to protect these facilities during armed conflict. As Israel is committing horrendous human rights violations in Gaza, the international community must step up efforts to end the assault on Palestinians and work to address a humanitarian cataclysm.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline, and medicine in Gaza by January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This is a solid policy from the Biden administration. This discussion cannot forget to include how such policies impact smaller tribes. For example, the United Keetoowah Band of Cherokee Indians and the Kialegee Tribal Town in Oklahoma — both of whom haven't received much federal land compared to other tribes — are in desperate need of an off-reservation casino to help their citizens who only make an average of $1K per month. This is a balanced approach that takes into account multiple tribal nations.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Coquille tribe isn't taking into consideration the negative impact this off-reservation project will have on the future generations of Indians living within reservation boundaries. While opening up a casino more than 100 miles away from home will certainly bring in some revenue, the jobs it will create will be on non-native land, leaving Indians of all tribes without an opportunity to access such opportunities. This sets a bad precedent that can negatively impact many Native American tribes nationwide.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the last US casino will close by at least Dec. 2299, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The past 72 hours have been a whirlwind in the artificial intelligence space, but one thing is abundantly clear amid the chaos — Microsoft is the winner of the fallout between Sam Altman and OpenAI. In addition to hiring one of the most prominent names in the AI field, Microsoft has also brought many of his colleagues and stocked up in the AI arms race against Google and Amazon. Microsoft will still work to get returns on its massive investment in OpenAI, but the company just gained an enormous amount of human capital. Microsoft headquarters is celebrating on Monday.

Narrative B

Everything about the Sam Altman/OpenAI saga seems off, and there is so much unclarity that it is impossible to make any declarations about the parties involved. While Microsoft appears like it scored a major victory, it still needs to make sure that OpenAI can remain successful — and there is very little information about Altman’s new endeavor with the company. The past three days are full of confusion, and there's a lot to untangle before any winners are declared.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that Sam Altman will return as the CEO of OpenAI before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.