Pro-establishment narrative

There has to be an end to the civil conflict in Sudan. Secretary Blinken is right about that. The crimes committed against the civilian population have gone unchecked for too long, and there is a great chance that the fighting will expand into nearby nations. Should that occur, it would be a surefire way to unleash a massive human tragedy that would result in a protracted war and a human catastrophe for millions of people.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Washington is right to call out the atrocities being committed in Sudan, it has so far failed to acknowledge the Western meddling that undoubtedly played a role in the conflict. Western governments so "kindly" offering humanitarian aid today and condemning the violence are the same ones who toyed with Sudan for decades solely to steal its resources and combat China's rise in the region.

Pro-establishment narrative

With his trip, Putin hoped to show that Russia remains a global player despite the international community's attempts to isolate Moscow over its Ukraine invasion. With regional anti-Americanism at an all-time high in light of the Israel-Hamas war, Putin is stepping up his efforts to bolster Russia's regional clout. Ultimately, however, the war sparked by Hamas reveals that the US remains the region's dominant military and political player, while Russia's actual influence is marginal. Added to this are the recent differences between Moscow and Riyadh over the OPEC+ oil production cuts. Putin's charm offensive is unlikely to yield any significant results.

Establishment-critical narrative

Putin's warm and respectful welcome in Saudi Arabia and the UAE highlighted yet again that the region is no longer willing to bow to the West's geopolitical interests and double standards. The fact that both Arab states are also key US partners underlines the growing influence of Moscow in the region, which recently agreed with Saudi Arabia to cut oil production to stabilize the crude market. Also, Russia enjoys regional recognition thanks to its balanced foreign policy stance and could play a mediating role in the Hamas-Ukraine conflict. Putin's goal was to assert himself on the world stage, and his trip proved that he has little to lose and much to gain.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance, that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Though Meta hasn't admitted that Facebook and its Messenger are unsecured, more than a billion users of its platform were vulnerable to abuse from all sides — from criminals and overbearing governments. Users must always choose apps and platforms that prioritize security and privacy — Meta has finally ticked that important box.

Narrative B

Meta must surely see the danger in trading off user safety for the larger idea of privacy. The company's platforms have, in the past, helped track and corner sexual abusers only because of a lack of encryption. Now that Meta has crossed to the dark side, the world's law enforcement agencies will be left in the lurch on this front.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Illia Kyva was an infamous traitor to Ukraine, not only defecting to Russia but even calling for the invasion. Such treason cannot be accepted in war time and all who collaborate with Russia will meet the same fate.

Pro-Russia narrative

This brazen assassination conducted by Ukrainian intelligence was nothing short of state-sponsored terrorism. These types of actions need to be condemned by the international community. Action has to be taken to prevent these types of attacks from happening again.

Establishment-critical narrative

Under the standards of international law on war, committing assassinations is widely considered a war crime. Ukraine's role in a number of suspected assassinations is clearly beyond the scope of the law and should be condemned.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that there will be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Hamas seized upon last week's temporary pause to mark Israeli positions and prepare itself for continued attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. Israel will have to work intelligently in its campaign in the south of the strip to fully eliminate the terrorist group so it can never launch an attack like Oct. 7 again — the UN chief's rare move only seeks to impede Israel's right to defend itself.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Unfortunately, the temporary ceasefire only gave civilians a few days of relative rest, and now Israel has returned to killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate. Guterres is right to exert more pressure to end the war.

Democratic narrative

While it is unfortunate that the Supreme Court has decided to stand in the way of much-needed debt relief for Americans, the Biden Administration has many more tools in the box to help borrowers. Democrats have banded together to implore the President to use his executive authority to reduce the outstanding debt and reduce the cost of higher education so that future generations of students are not crippled with this undue and unjust burden.

Republican narrative

SCOTUS was clear in the authorities provided to the President when it comes to student loan debt relief. These announcements of new debt relief rollouts are shameful and an intentional plan by the Administration to circumvent the decision of the high court. While trying to appease his far-left followers, the President has alienated and disenfranchised the Americans who took responsibility and paid off their debts with no help from a socialist government — a move that will surely be reflected at the polls.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance the US student loan bubble will "pop" by January 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The EU has a moral duty to push the AI Act through as soon as possible to protect the common good and address the risks inherent to the absurd proposal to refrain from regulating foundation models. Otherwise, one of the biggest scandals in its history will have taken place as lobbyists would have co-opted institutions to promote non-European interests.

Narrative B

Despite its downsides, self-regulation remains the best policy course to deal with AI, even compared to well-intentioned government regulation. The very complex nature of the controversial technology and its dynamic pace would make it challenging and costly to enforce government-imposed guidelines. Additionally, countries that over-regulate may lag behind in the global AI race.

Nerd narrative

There's a 95% chance that the EU AI Act will implement regulations on foundation models, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The extreme-right MAGA wing of the Republican party has been wheeling and dealing censures as though they were a weapon. If only they were willing to work this hard to meet the economic, healthcare, and safety needs of the American people. Everyone is at risk of a House Republican censure, which just renders the measure useless. Now that this charade is over, Bowman and his party can get back to work and focus on what really matters.

Republican narrative

Not only did Jamaal Bowman commit a crime by pulling the fire alarm, but he did so to help his party delay a House vote. The man who called Jan. 6 demonstrators terrorists and white supremacists single-handedly forced an entire legislative building to evacuate. So, while his political opponents rot in prison, Rep. Bowman gets treated with kids' gloves after endangering the same hallowed halls he claims to protect.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Wednesday’s debate was filled with chaos and personal attacks, but Haley and Christie preserved some level of decency amid the mudslinging. Meanwhile, Ramaswamy used his time to peddle far-right conspiracy theories while making misogynistic remarks about Haley and mocking Christie. While Trump is still the frontrunner in the GOP, Haley and Christie provided a welcomed sight of maturity and experience. Both candidates were poised and presidential, and it may be Haley overtaking second place to be the "non-chaotic" alternative to the former president.

Narrative B

Ramaswamy delivered a borderline revolutionary debate performance that rivaled the awakening Trump started in 2015. While his three competitors voiced mildly different variations of mainstream conservatism, Ramaswamy attacked the key issues that no one has wanted to address, and that scares the establishment more than anything. Not only did Ramaswamy attack his opponents’ corruption but he called out the failed neocon policies of the past — the GOP establishment is hissing because they know that Vivek spoke real truth to power.

Nerd narrative

There is a 90% chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It's great that even as mRNA vaccines have proven to be highly effective in saving millions of lives, scientists are continuing to study them. While the COVID vaccines aren't producing any ill effects from these unwanted proteins, future vaccines for other viruses could produce harmful proteins. These types of studies will make sure that doesn't happen.

Narrative B

It can’t be stressed enough that there’s no evidence of ill effects — so far. Research will continue, and it’s great that vaccine makers will be working to avoid this issue in future vaccines. But like all jabs, the science is still unfolding and we’ll see what impact there might be on the COVID vaccine. A longer period of record will eventually tell the full story.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance the WHO will announce the COVID-19 pandemic has ended by April 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.