Establishment-critical narrative

It's hypocritical of the West to point fingers at Russia over the damage of the Balticconnector when the explosions that blew up the Nord Stream pipelines remain unsolved. There is a high risk that the impetus behind these patrols will evolve into the targeted closure of the Baltic Sea to Russian shipping — any western actors potentially involved in the Nord Stream sabotage should also face sanctions.

Pro-establishment narrative

While the West and its security allies are tirelessly working to prevent conflict, deter enemies, and protect critical undersea infrastructure, China and Russia have intensified their hostile activities in the High North and around the Baltic Sea. As northern waters become increasingly contested and dangerous, western powers are seeking to ensure they remain free and navigable.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that there will be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

The Department of Justice is probing ByteDance's use of TikTok data to spy on US journalists. Montana's ban says the app can operate unfettered if it severs its connection with ByteDance. Given how murky Chinese companies are, such a ban is necessary to keep Americans safe from a prying China. Hopefully, more US states will follow Montana's path.

Pro-China narrative

Leaders on both sides of the aisle are leading a cynical assault against TikTok to foment anti-China sentiment, with there being not one shred of evidence that the app is used for espionage purposes by China. TikTok collects no more data than American tech platforms but is under much more scrutiny. The TikTok crusade is bordering on hysteria, as US leaders ignore the grave privacy concerns posed by Western social media platforms.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that the US will ban TikTok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The embarrassing nature of Chamorro's lack of due diligence concerning Kailasa highlights a plethora of underlying security problems that undermine Paraguay's politics. The event has led to widespread ridicule, underpinning the necessity for thorough background checks when dealing with foreign entities. Paraguay must learn its lesson and ensure it does due diligence on its governance dealings.

Narrative B

Kailasa has continued to expand its diplomatic network across the world based on good intentions. Examples of success in Africa and South Asia highlight the entity's future potential. International actors who share similar values such as religious freedom, the eradication of hunger, and holistic health and education continue to recognize Kailasa for its true commitment to a positive future — no matter how its sovereignty is classified by others.

Narrative A

The loss and damage fund is a significant milestone in combating the climate crisis. It shows that the entire international community is ready to act with ambition on a global threat. Even though industrialized nations aren't obliged to compensate developing countries least prepared to deal with climate-linked weather disasters, they have come together to ensure everyone is equipped with adequate funds and technology to help with what's coming.

Narrative B

It's too early to celebrate the fund's approval as certain issues still need to be solved, including how the fund will be financed in the future. Moreover, the fund's long-term sustainability and COP28's climate mitigation plans remain questionable if fossil fuel companies are not part of the solution to climate challenges or world leaders refrain from completely phasing out fossil fuels. Lastly, the fund recognizes the world has failed to prevent climate change from happening.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the average global temperature in 2100 will be 2.47°C higher than the average global temperature in 1880, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Despite the setbacks and the coming winter weather, Ukraine has no choice but to continue defending against Russian aggression and to fight for what's theirs. While world attention has understandably shifted to the tragedy in the Middle East, the world mustn't forget that a war is also happening in Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

After the Cold War, there was a historic opportunity to continue down the path of treaties and disarmament, based on the principles of shared security concerns. Instead, however, the US chose a path of seeking to weaponize Ukraine in an effort to weaken Russia. Despite all that's happened to Ukraine, the West is continuing this disastrous policy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though, of course, Israelis are glad to see some of the hostages now safe and sound back in Israel, the country must not allow Hamas to regroup. Hamas seized upon the temporary pause to mark Israeli positions and prepare itself for continued attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. Indeed, the pace at which Israeli forces maneuvered in Gaza threw Hamas's military leadership off-kilter, and Israel will have to work intelligently in its campaign of fully eliminating the terrorist group so it can never launch an attack like Oct. 7 again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Unfortunately, the temporary ceasefire only gave civilians a few days of relative rest, and now Israel has returned to killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate. The US, Israel's biggest ally, must exert more pressure to end the war.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will announce that it will release at least 195 Palestinian prisoners/detainees by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

O’Connor was a trailblazer, but more importantly she wasn’t devoted to one political worldview or translation of historical text. She adhered to an approach of moderation, justice, and fairness from the bench — sometimes to the ire of both conservatives and liberals. Her ability to rule while having her finger on the pulse of public sentiment made her the perfect justice to serve as a swing vote for more than two decades.

Left narrative

O’Connor should be commended for her independence. However, one of the times she sided with her conservative colleagues led to the election of the Republican Bush as president. Unfortunately, when she decided to step down, Bush was still in office and he nominated Alito, who has since formed a conservative super majority on the court that has dismantled many of the things O’Connor felt strongest about and has brought a disappointing end to her legacy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 39% chance that SCOTUS will change its membership size before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

No one represents, nor is enthralled by, Donald Trump more than George Santos. Santos entered politics not to help the country and serve his constituents, but rather to follow in his MAGA leader's footsteps by using his office to obtain fame and fortune. Though fellow radical Marjorie Taylor Greene voted to keep him, thankfully, he was unable to amass the same support as his MAGA idol.

Republican narrative

While the House GOP could certainly have waited until Santos was convicted in a court of law before expelling the congressman, the Republican from New York was already headed toward a quick and severely stained end to his political career. He was an embarrassment to both his party and the institution and is likely to face even more consequences as his legal troubles continue. The GOP now focuses on replacing Santos with a reputable replacement.

Nerd narrative

There is a 75% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia continues to show a complete lack of regard for basic human rights as it continues to hold Alsu Kurmasheva as a political hostage. She did absolutely nothing wrong but is being abused for simply existing as an independent journalist in an authoritarian country. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has only dialed up its attack on free speech, and this gross abuse of power must be condemned and stopped. Kurmasheva must be released immediately.

Pro-Russia narrative

Western propaganda machines push utter falsehoods about Russia with no interest in telling the truth. The US claims that Russia is engaged in the persecution of American journalists when the fact is that Russia is simply implementing its national laws that require foreign agents to identify themselves. Russian law is crystal clear — RFE/RL is a foreign-funded media outlet that is political in nature, and Alsu Kurmasheva is a political actor who is gathering information on the Russian military.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that a post-Putin Russia will substantially democratize within 5 years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Donald Trump cannot hide behind some flawed argument of presidential immunity when it comes to his incitement of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. Thankfully, the court recognized that he wasn't acting out his presidential duties when he tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Trump can and must be held accountable for his attempt to undermine American democracy, and this ruling is a positive step toward achieving this.

Pro-Trump narrative

The political persecution of Donald Trump continues, and it's now uprooting fundamental principles of American law. The DC Appellate Court’s decision to remove his presidential immunity opens up a can of worms that could forever alter what politicians are and are not liable for when it comes to legal proceedings. Of course, this will likely be a one-way street against Republicans, but it's interesting to see some fair-minded liberals call out the consequences of this legal assault.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.