US Military Aircraft Crashes Off Japan Coast
A US Military Osprey aircraft with eight people on board crashed into the sea off Western Japan on Wednesday, killing at least one crew member.
The Japanese Coast Guard confirmed it had found the wreckage of the tilt-rotor V-22 Osprey and the deceased's remains near Yakushima Island. Fishing boats reportedly found three people, but their conditions are unclear.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US Military continues to deploy Ospreys despite several high-profile deadly crashes in recent years and a history of mechanical and operational issues. Japan must stop all Ospreys operating in its territory until the US can ensure the hybrid aircraft is safe to fly.
Pro-establishment narrative
The V-22 — which can take off and land like a helicopter but can rotate its propellers forward and cruise much faster like a plane — expands the operational range of military units exponentially. Though it's often termed the most controversial US military aircraft, the Osprey isn't even close to the most lethal to fly.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that a US aircraft carrier will be destroyed in combat before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Riyadh Selected to Host the World Expo 2030
A vote conducted by the Paris-based Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) has seen Saudi Arabia beat its opponents by a landslide to host the 2030 World Exposition in its capital Riyadh. The Kingdom intends to host the event between October 2030 and March 2031.
Riyadh won the bid with 119 (72%) of the 165 votes, ahead of the South Korean port city of Busan with 29 votes (18%), followed by the Italian capital Rome with 17 votes (10%). Riyadh's bid was officially backed by French President Emmanuel Macron, and subject to criticism from some activists over human rights concerns.
Pro-establishment narrative
Riyadh's successful bid to host the World Expo 2030 is cause for celebration. By showcasing the latest technological marvels to international tourists and officials, Saudi Arabia will have the opportunity to build closer ties with western nations and firm up its reputation as a key player, in terms of innovation and diplomacy, for years to come.
Establishment-critical narrative
Allowing Saudi Arabia to host the World Expo 2030 is a huge mistake with international implications. This outcome signials that the Bureau of International des Expositions (BiE) holds no regard for human rights — it is failing to take a stand against a morally corrupt regime. Saudi Arabia is an inappropriate backdrop to a meeting centered on global solutions to today’s global challenges.
More Countries Get IAEA's Nod to Build Nuclear Power Plants
About a dozen new countries could begin producing electricity from nuclear power sources within a few years, the International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said at the World Nuclear Exhibition in Paris on Tuesday.
According to the IAEA, the number of nuclear reactors in the world must double to achieve the Paris climate agreement's targets. Grossi has said that 10 countries, including Nigeria, have already "entered the decision phase to build nuclear power plants."
Pro-establishment narrative
Concerns about climate change, national security, and unreliable electrical grids have pushed the world to recognize that nuclear power has long been wrongfully stigmatized, especially in popular culture. Nuclear power is a zero-carbon, reliable energy source, far safer than other alternatives, such as coal and natural gas, in terms of deaths from accidents and pollution.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though it would be easy to genuinely believe the revival of nuclear energy will solve ongoing crises, including the climate breakdown, closer scrutiny shows an opposing reality. As nuclear reactors risk being weaponized, nuclear power is less reliable and safe than its advocates claim. The world should instead be investing in weather-based renewable energy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 8.3% of global primary energy consumption will be produced by nuclear power in 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Links Indian Official to Sikh Separatist's Assassination
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have charged Indian national Nikhil Gupta with plotting to assassinate a Sikh separatist activist on US soil at the behest of an Indian government official, the US Dept. of Justice announced on Wednesday.
According to court documents, the Indian government operative — referred to only as "CC-1" — described himself as a "Senior Field Officer" with responsibilities in "Security Management" and "Intelligence" and allegedly recruited Gupta to orchestrate the ultimately unsuccessful assassination earlier this year.
Narrative A
The charges against Gupta are a dramatic development, fueling concerns that the trail of the plot to assassinate a US and Canadian citizen on US soil might lead to New Delhi. Not only that, the charges also suggest a link between the foiled killing in the US and the murder of the Sikh leader in Canada. To protect its reputation, New Delhi must do everything possible to bring those responsible to justice. Washington, for its part, must show that the lives of US citizens take precedence over its desire to deepen strategic ties with India.
Narrative B
The allegations made in the indictment are serious, but India appreciates that the US has been discreet in voicing its concerns, unlike Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who openly accused New Delhi of being behind the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada without providing any evidence. The Sikh separatist Pannun is a dangerous agitator who was labeled a terrorist by New Delhi and has undoubtedly made many enemies. India is taking the matter seriously and is interested in solving the obscure issue for national security reasons alone.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that India will request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Foreign Minister: New Zealand Seeks to Strengthen US Ties
During a speech at the United States Business Summit in Auckland on Thursday, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said that the Asia-Pacific country held a "crucial role" in "promoting shared values" alongside the US.
Peters said that both countries "share[d] a special connection" founded upon "democratic values," and continued that New Zealand sought to "strengthen engagement" with the US on "strategic and security challenges." Peters' speech was his first since being appointed foreign minister.
Pro-establishment narrative
New Zealand must reaffirm its ties with the United States to strengthen the union of liberal democracy worldwide, and ensure global security. New Zealand is already a member of the Five Eyes intelligence group, and should heavily consider becoming part of AUKUS' second stage. While a reaction from China is inevitable, Auckland must expand its limited foreign policy beyond a dependency on its Australian neighbor.
Pro-China narrative
Luxon's new coalition government cannot magically restore the country's economy, and so the Prime Minister would be wise to keep the ideologically driven, pro-US wing of the government in check with China remaining New Zealand's dominant trading partner. There is hope that there will be continuity in Auckland's foreign policy, although the country's three-party coalition may prove to be unpredictable.
Nerd narrative
There is an 18% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Taiwan President Says China Too 'Overwhelmed' to Invade
During an interview at the New York Times DealBook Summit, Taiwanese Pres. Tsai Ing-wen said China is too "overwhelmed" to think about invading the island, citing its "internal economic and financial as well as political challenges" and adding that the "international community has made it loud and clear that war is not an option."
Tsai also alleged that China is determined to meddle in the self-governing island's upcoming January election, something she claims Beijing has done since 1996 through "the use of military stress and economic coercion, extensive cognitive warfare campaigns, [and] both tradition and social media platforms."
Anti-China narrative
Pres. Tsai's comments come not from arrogance but confidence in the nation's institutions, economic strength, and partnerships with powerful allies. While China makes verbal threats, Taipei is manufacturing world-leading computer chips and building military and economic cooperation with countries across the world — not to mention its growing domestic public support for democracy and deterring Beijing.
Pro-China narrative
As Taiwan's ruling party pushes the island into the arms of Washington, Beijing feels sorry for the Taiwanese people, whose tax dollars are being used to buy US weapons and thus instigate a war. US policy toward Taipei isn't one of compassion but rather of using the island as a piggy bank for its military machine. This dangerous policy will only worsen if the ruling DPP party wins again in 2024.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Henry Kissinger Dies Aged 100
Dr. Henry Kissinger, the renowned but divisive diplomat at the heart of US foreign policy for decades, died at the age of 100 at his Connecticut home on Wednesday, a statement from his consultancy firm confirmed.
Born in Germany in 1923, Kissinger arrived in America with his family in 1938. Once in the US, he enlisted in the Army as part of the country's World War II effort in 1943, the same year he became a naturalized citizen. Due to his German language skills, he climbed the ranks of military intelligence.
Narrative A
Kissinger can be criticized for many things after decades of establishing the US' post-WWII foreign policy, but no one can question that everything he did was done with the best interests of the US in mind. He will be greatly remembered for his many achievements, including the US troop withdrawal from Vietnam and the détente with Communist China and the Soviet Union. American public life will miss his wisdom and "realpolitik."
Narrative B
Given the carpet bombing of Cambodia, the US’ role in problems in Pakistan, and the green-lighting of Indonesia's bloody invasion of East Timor, no other official in modern US history deserves the title of war criminal more than Kissinger. Mainstream voices will pay tribute to him as a statesman and a diplomat, but decency commands we remember the many civilians who suffered at his hands.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SCOTUS Hears Arguments Over Security and Exchange Commission's Powers
On Wednesday, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) heard more than two hours of arguments in the case of Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) v. Jarkesy, which is an appeal by the Biden administration of a lower court’s ruling that prohibited the SEC from imposing financial penalties on hedge fund manager George R. Jarkesy.
Jarkesy’s suit, which many conservative and business groups backed, challenged the legality of the SEC's punishments after it fined him and barred him from the industry after finding he committed securities fraud.
Left narrative
Conservative judges have never seemed concerned about jury trials when it comes to workers seeking to avoid private arbitration with their corporate employers. This is just an attempt by conservatives to dismantle the agencies policing wealthy citizens who are committing misdeeds. Luckily for those who believe in equal justice, the right-leaning justices seemed unprepared to completely obliterate the agencies at this time.
Right narrative
Agencies like the SEC have grown too powerful, and agencies' in-house judges are nothing more than over-protected political cronies doing the left's bidding. It's time to right the wrong of denying would-be SEC violators a jury trial, and hopefully move on to reining in other overgrown government agencies after this case is decided.
Nerd narrative
There's a 39% chance that the Supreme Court will change size by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Venezuelan Voters Reject ICJ Jurisdiction in Dispute with Guyana
Venezuela announced on Monday that a national referendum held at the weekend had shown that there is public support for the seizure of the Guyanese territory of Essequibo. Over 10.4M ballots were reportedly cast in Sunday's vote.
Venezuela's referendum asked voters five questions in total, including whether they rejected "by all means" the 1899 arbitral decision that declared that the area belonged to the then-British colony, as well as whether they supported a 1966 agreement that effectively nullified the arbitration "as the only valid legal instrument" to reach a solution.
Establishment-critical narrative
The free and democratic referendum on Essequibo is not threat to democracy but rather a mass exercise of democratic rights in defense of Venezuelan sovereignty that will force the colony of Guyana back to the negotiating table. The stolen oil-rich Essequibo region has long had its resources exploited by the US, which negotiates oil and gas deals as if they were its own. It's time for this to come to an end.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's outrageous that Venezuela arrogated to itself the right to hold a referendum to annex a territory awarded to the then-British territory, Guyana, in 1899 — the 1966 Geneva Agreement specifies that it's up to the UN Secretary-General to choose how to settle the territorial dispute related to Essequibo. Given that the matter has already been referred to the ICJ, Venezuela is clearly seeking to usurp the court's jurisdiction.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that Venezuela will invade Guyana before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Meta Shuts Down Thousands of Fake Accounts Allegedly Linked to China
Meta on Thursday announced that it removed nearly 4.8K fake Facebook accounts allegedly linked to China that it alleges sought to deepen partisan discord by impersonating Americans and posting about controversial issues, such as abortion and healthcare.
According to Meta, the accounts, which it said posed as authentic Americans, didn't post misinformation but, instead, copied and pasted posts from prominent politicians such as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
Pro-establishment narrative
After faith in US Democracy was shaken by Russia’s aggressive election interference campaign in 2016, social media companies such as Meta must continue to do their due diligence to snuff out these foreign networks. The rise of social media has come with a mass proliferation of misinformation from both domestic and foreign actors, and while Russia remains the biggest threat, China is emerging, which means there must be a greater initiative to combat this cyber assault.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US is always quick to point its fingers at others without acknowledging its own shortcomings. While there may very well be malicious foreign actors, there are also undoubtedly domestic ones. Before spreading rumors and panic about foreign election interference, Washington must get its own house in order by eliminating the very real homegrown threats that risk jeopardizing its democracy.