Essequibo and the referendum
Últimas NoticiasNov 28, 2023
The Facts
Venezuela announced on Monday that a national referendum held at the weekend had shown that there is public support for the seizure of the Guyanese territory of Essequibo. Over 10.4M ballots were reportedly cast in Sunday's vote.
Venezuela's referendum asked voters five questions in total, including whether they rejected "by all means" the 1899 arbitral decision that declared that the area belonged to the then-British colony, as well as whether they supported a 1966 agreement that effectively nullified the arbitration "as the only valid legal instrument" to reach a solution.
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
The free and democratic referendum on Essequibo is not threat to democracy but rather a mass exercise of democratic rights in defense of Venezuelan sovereignty that will force the colony of Guyana back to the negotiating table. The stolen oil-rich Essequibo region has long had its resources exploited by the US, which negotiates oil and gas deals as if they were its own. It's time for this to come to an end.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's outrageous that Venezuela arrogated to itself the right to hold a referendum to annex a territory awarded to the then-British territory, Guyana, in 1899 — the 1966 Geneva Agreement specifies that it's up to the UN Secretary-General to choose how to settle the territorial dispute related to Essequibo. Given that the matter has already been referred to the ICJ, Venezuela is clearly seeking to usurp the court's jurisdiction.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that Venezuela will invade Guyana before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.