Parthenon Row: Sunak Cancels Meeting with Greek PM
Greek Prime Miniter Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Tuesday voiced his "annoyance" at his UK counterpart Rishi Sunak's last-minute cancellation of a meeting to discuss the future of the Parthenon Marbles — Greek sculptures exhibited at the British Museum that Athens has long sought be repatriated.
Sunak's spokesman said that it would "not be productive" to hold the talks, claiming Greece had broken the promise not to use Mitsotakis' UK visit to publicly relitigate the matter. This comes after Mitsotakis described the artifacts as "essentially stolen" in a BBC interview on Sunday.
Pro-establishment narrative
The position of the UK regarding the status of the marbles has always been crystal-clear any agreement to loan the sculptures out will be between Greece and the British Museum alone. Sunak had every right to cancel his meeting with his Greek counterpart over his flagrant disregard for this status quo, instead insisting on stirring up nationalist tensions to score cheap points against the British.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Parthenon Marbles are an indelible part of Greece's cultural heritage and must be returned with due haste. The marbles were lifted from Greece thanks to an agreement with the occupying Ottoman Empire, with the arrangement never reflecting the will of the Greek people. Most Brits themselves believe the marbles should be returned to Greece, with a potential repatriation being the ultimate testament to the historically strong relationship between Greece and the UK.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century will be moved back before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Argentina's Milei Meets Top US Officials, Seeks IMF Reset
Argentine President-elect Javier Milei met with senior US officials on Tuesday as his economic advisers held talks with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team in Washington to win support for Milei's plans to boost Argentina's struggling economy. His two-day trip comes ahead of his Dec.10 inauguration.
The libertarian stated he had "very comfortable" talks with the US national security advisor Jake Sullivan and Latin America advisor Juan González, in which Argentina's economic and social situation was discussed. He added that his foreign policy would consist of "alignment with the US and Israel."
Pro-establishment narrative
The fact that his first trip as president-elect took him to the US illustrates the significance Milei attaches to bilateral relations with the US. In terms of foreign policy, Milli has made it clear that he's standing firmly on the side of the West and Israel. During his election campaign, he also pledged to distance himself from China and reject Argentina's BRICS membership. For the free world and Latin America, Milei's election is a positive signal and the US should support this.
Establishment-critical narrative
Pres. Joe Biden snubbing of this visit indicates that his administration has mixed feelings about deepening ties with a pro-Trump leader. Thus, it's not surprising that Milei has adopted a more moderate tone towards Beijing — Argentina's second-largest trading partner and the country's largest market for agricultural products — in contrast to his populist anti-Chinese comments during his campaign. The world is changing and it would be foolish of Milei to jeopardize relations with China, especially as support from the US always comes with a cost.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance, that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel, Hamas Considering Larger Deal
Qatari-mediated negotiations between Israel and Hamas to extend the temporary truce that paused major hostilities last week are ongoing as the end of the truce looms; Israeli officials confirmed that another two-day extension was on the table, but that it had not yet been confirmed. On Tuesday, spy chiefs from Israel’s Mossad and the US CIA were in Qatar to "build on the progress of the extended humanitarian pause agreement and to initiate further discussions about the next phase of a potential deal."
The new agreement may involve Hamas releasing men or military personnel, as all other previous deals have only pertained to women and children. An Israeli spokesman said 146 Israelis and 15 foreign nationals remain in Gaza and added that "children were serially abused" while held captive.
Pro-Israel narrative
While freeing hostages is of the utmost importance, Israel must not succumb to unfair international pressure. Hamas has a history of forcing uneven deals, and the Israeli war cabinet made the right decision by weighing its options before accepting this temporary pause. It should remain clear, however, that Israel's ultimate goal is to eliminate Hamas from the Gaza Strip, and Jerusalem will continue to work toward this end even if that necessitates a resumption of conflict.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The Israeli military has inflicted disproportionate harm on the civilians of Gaza as opposed to on Hamas itself, and further assaults could lead to the deaths of many more. Israel has made a wise choice to bring its citizens home immediately through this temporary ceasefire, which should be extended. This will also see much-needed aid reach Gaza, where an utter humanitarian cataclysm has unfolded.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least seven Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel by 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iran Claims to Finalize Deal to Buy Russian Fighter Jets
Iran's Deputy Defense Minister Brigadier General Mahdi Farahi has reportedly announced the purchase of Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 jet trainers from the Russian military.
In September 2022, Iranian Air Force Chief Hamid Vahedi claimed that the purchase of Russian Sukhoi Su-35s was "being considered," while Shahriar Heidari — a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission — had claimed earlier this year that other equipment like air defense systems, missile systems, and helicopters, could potentially be delivered by last March.
Establishment-critical narrative
Military cooperation between two amicable countries, such as Russia and Iran, is both a legitimate and effective strategy for ensuring regional security and economic growth. The West continues to use Ukraine as a propaganda tool to demonize Iran-Russia ties as a threat to global peace, but such accusations are baseless attempts to distort the reality of two friends on the international stage.
Pro-establishment narrative
Iran, Russia, and China continue to undermine attempts to establish international peace via an intricate system of diplomacy, propaganda, and conflict. Iran continues to drive Hamas forward, while Russia has doubled down in its illegitimate attempt to conquer Ukraine. The rest of the world, led by the West, must wake up to this global threat and fight back against state actors who continue to damage global security.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
CIA Warns Staff About Social Media Use After Official Shares Pro-Palestine Post
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on Tuesday sent out an internal email to employees cautioning them against making political statements on social media. This came after a report in the Financial Times made known that a high-ranking CIA official posted a pro-Palestine image on Facebook in the weeks following the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7.
According to reporting from the Financial Times, the CIA official is the agency's associate deputy director for analysis. She is said to have changed her Facebook cover photo on Oct. 21 to an image of a man waving a Palestinian flag; an image that's frequently used to criticize Israel, the publication reported. "The Financial Times has decided not to name her after the intelligence agency expressed concern about her safety," it further said.
Pro-establishment narrative
CIA officials are committed to analytic objectivity in their work. Officers may have personal views but are still committed to unbiasedness as an organizational value. Nonetheless, this was a foolish move from a career official who knows better than to post on a divisive issue, particularly in the middle of a crisis.
Establishment-critical narrative
In aiding and abetting Israeli attacks on Gaza, which UN officials have already warned may breach international law, the US may be just as legally culpable if they provide direct military support. Some argue those crimes reach the threshold of genocide and/or genocidal intent. Given the intensity of bombing in Gaza, it's no wonder a growing number of US officials are growing uncomfortable.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline and medicine in Gaza by February 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
North Korea Claims Spy Satellite Pictured White House, Pentagon
North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Tuesday reported that Pres. Kim Jong Un personally reviewed images of the White House, Pentagon, and key US military installations, which were captured late Monday by its military reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1.
Seemingly trying to prove the authenticity of the unreleased photos, KCNA claimed that four US Navy nuclear-powered carriers and one British aircraft carrier were spotted at the Norfolk Naval Station and the Newport News Dockyard. But information on in-port locations is publicly available online.
Anti-North Korea Narrative
For the sake of propaganda, North Korea has once again destabilized the security situation on the peninsula. Malligyong-1's launch further exposes that Pyongyang has been able to consistently bypass international sanctions on its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. More must be done to contain North Korea.
Pro-North Korea narrative
With Malligyong-1 in orbit, North Korea has bolstered its self-defense capabilities and war deterrence amid a deteriorating security environment featuring Pyongyang’s enemies conducting dangerous military actions in the Korean Peninsula. No one can deny North Korea's right to self-defense.
Nerd narrative
There's a 13% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hawaii Wildfires: AG Subpoenas 3 Maui Agencies
Coming roughly four months after a series of wildfires in Maui, Hawaii, killed at least 100 people and displaced thousands of others, the state's Attorney General Anne Lopez announced Monday that she subpoenaed the Maui Emergency Management Agency (EMA), the County of Maui Department of Public Works (DPW) and the County of Maui Department of Water Supply (DWS).
As the first phase of her investigation involves identifying where the fire broke out and a timeline of its spread, Lopez's office said the subpoenas will allow the "timely" collection of facts. The office also said that investigators at the Fire Safety Research Institute (FSRI), which Lopez hired, are still lacking "critical facts" from "several key stakeholders."
Democratic narrative
This entire tragedy needs to be reviewed from top to bottom, but that doesn't mean that local, state, or federal government agencies are specifically at fault for this. As Hawaii and its citizens work to rebuild their lives and communities and better prepare their institutions for future disasters, everyone from lawmakers to private companies and volunteers needs to continue to put money in the hands of these victims and work to enact policies to end the destruction of burning fossil fuels.
Republican narrative
Even if climate change played some type of role in these wildfires, the fact that emergency agencies failed so miserably in a state that faces natural disasters all the time — from Tsunamis to hurricanes to volcanic eruptions — should raise everyone's eyebrows. Police barricades blocked certain people from fleeing communities; the Department of Land and Natural Resources delayed the release of water; and the emergency alert system only sent alert texts to some communities. That is beyond negligent, and people need to be held responsible.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the official death toll for the 2023 Hawaii wildfires will be at least 116 as of January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hunter Biden Agrees to Public Testimony Before House Oversight Committee
Through his lawyer, Abbe Lowell, Hunter Biden, the son of Pres. Joe Biden, Tuesday responded to a subpoena for testimony by offering to testify at an open hearing in December — rather than a closed-door deposition — as part of US House Oversight Committee Republicans' impeachment probe of the elder Biden.
Hunter Biden expressed concerns a closed-door deposition could be manipulated by Republicans, and Lowell classified Republicans' attempts to link the president to his son's business dealings as a "fishing expedition."
Democratic narrative
If Republicans want to hear from Hunter Biden, they should take him up on his offer. History tells us witnesses who've met with congressional Republicans behind closed doors have had their comments taken out of context for political purposes. Of course, Republicans will demur because their first public impeachment hearing was an evidence-free embarrassment and this entire probe continues to be a kangaroo court to tarnish the president during election season.
Republican narrative
Republicans have been following the money and getting closer to proving the president's corruption, and Hunter Biden shouldn't be able to distract from the evidence by turning his testimony into a spectacle. It's typical procedure to have a deposition — where lawyers can handle the questioning with limited interruptions — and then later possibly have a public hearing. If Hunter Biden has nothing to hide, he will adhere to the subpoena as-is.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 25% chance that Pres. Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Court: Members Can Prohibit Headscarf, Other Symbols in Public Offices
The European Union’s top court ruled on Tuesday that member states can prohibit public employees from wearing overt signs of their religious beliefs. The ruling is most pertinent to the use of Islamic headscarves, which has long been a divisive issue in Europe.
The European Court of Justice's (ECJ) decision came in response to a case brought by a Muslim woman who was told she could not wear her headscarf at work. The woman worked as a public employee in the eastern Belgian municipality of Ans and said the ban was discriminatory.
Left narrative
The EU continues to target Muslims, and the ECJ’s latest ruling is yet another setback for the rights of Muslim women and girls. Citing "neutrality" as a "legitimate" aim, the EU’s top court greenlighted discrimination against Muslim women in a decision that will dissuade those of the Islamic faith from public service.
Right narrative
European countries have a right to maintain neutrality in their public offices, and groups don't have special privileges to defy established codes regarding dress codes. Countries such as France and Belgium have long-standing traditions of maintaining a neutral and secular environment in all public spaces, and can't modify values based on mass immigration or other trends.
CDC: US Life Expectancy Rose in 2022
A new report released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Wednesday showed that US life expectancy rose to 77.5 years in 2022, up by 1.1% from the year prior, with the expectancy at birth for men rising from 73.5 in 2021 to 74.8 in 2022 and for women jumping by 0.9 to an average of 80.2 years.
While the rate did jump significantly from the pandemic years, 2022's life expectancy was about the same as the rate recorded 20 years ago. After having risen a little bit almost every year for decades, the nation's life expectancy began to flatten about 10 years ago and even decline in certain years. During the pandemic, it dropped from 78.79 in 2019 to 76.4 in 2021.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US had a bad life expectancy before the pandemic, saw a terrible one during the pandemic, and is now back to a bad one again. Thanks to decades of failed US government policy, Americans are drowning in processed food, overworked by their employers, and can't afford healthcare. These are the reasons Americans can't live as long as their European peers.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US has a long way to go to catch up to other developed countries, but the fact that life expectancy has gone up is a very good thing. Another cause for optimism is that the US has both the data and resources to tackle this problem, so all its institutions have to do now is harness that power and aim it toward a comprehensive national goal.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the average US life expectancy will be at least 76.72 in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Biden, Obama Split on Support for Israel
NBC News reported Wednesday that there is a rift between Pres. Joe Biden and his former boss Barack Obama over how the US should approach its support of Israel. The report, which cites five anonymous sources, comes as the president faces pushback from his own party for his support of Israel.
According to the report, Biden told people in his inner circle that his public support of Israel has been more successful than Obama’s method. In 2014, Obama publicly criticized Israel for launching a military attack on Gaza — an approach then-Vice President Biden said "wouldn't work."
Conservative narrative
Joe Biden is finding out the obvious his party, including his former boss, has left him far behind. There's clearly no room for moderates in the modern Democratic Party, and Biden has been more than happy to move further and further left to appease his party’s zealots. However, Biden is unwilling to move left when it comes to Israel, and he's now experiencing the wrath of his fellow Democrats.
Progressive narrative
Joe Biden is alienating many of his constituents by continuing to unconditionally support Israel’s attack on civilians in Gaza. The US, and especially the Democratic Party, grows more diverse each day, and this current foreign policy isn't supported by many young voters. If Biden continues to ignore the moral injustice happening in Palestine, real progressives will stay home in 2024.
Pro-establishment narrative
Pres. Biden has been faced with an impossible political situation as he looks to navigate a diplomatic crisis in the Middle East, and despite criticism from both sides, he has handled the conflict as best as he can. He recognizes that maintaining peace relies on playing ball with different actors, and he knows that he can’t deal with Israel in the same way he deals with other countries.