Yemen: Missiles Fired at US Navy Ship From Houthi Territory
US Central Command reported that two ballistic missiles were fired from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen on Monday morning toward the location where the Navy destroyer USS Mason was rescuing a commercial boat, called the M/V Central Park, from an attempted hijacking by Somali Pirates in the Gulf of Aden.
The missiles landed about ten nautical miles away from the vessels, causing no damage or injuries. While the Yemeni government blamed the Iran-backed Houthis for the attack, the rebels didn't take credit for either the seizure or the missile.
Anti-Iran narrative
Though shocking, this missile attack isn't surprising at all. Since the Israel-Hamas war began, Iranian-backed forces have attacked US and coalition troops in the Middle East dozens of times. Because maritime security is crucial to regional stability, the US and its allies will work incessantly to ensure safety and prevent further escalations in the conflict.
Pro-Iran narrative
It's quite absurd to claim that Iran has anything to do with incidents such as this missile incident. The Houthi-led Yemeni forces are taking measures to express support for the Palestinian cause as well as to counter Israeli aggression in the region.
Nerd narrative
There's an 8% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Argentina: Bird Flu Kills Hundreds of Flamingos
Argentina has reported that an outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu virus has killed at least 220 flamingos in the country's north-western province of Catamarca.
The virus has so far infected flocks of the James's flamingo species (puna flamingo), which the International Union for Conservation of Nature classifies as "near threatened."
Narrative A
The loss of the rare flamingos is a significant blow to Argentina's biodiversity and ecosystem. Moreover, as the strain of H5N1 is spreading to an unprecedented number of countries, infecting and killing rare, wild, and backyard birds indiscriminately, it may ultimately spread to humans by infecting other hosts such as minks. The global community must contain the outbreak swiftly before it can break into a catastrophic human pandemic.
Narrative B
It's usual for bird flu to strike during autumn and winter. James's flamingos are migratory birds and the natural hosts of the H5N1 virus, which is the main factor in its spread this year. As we have only seen rare and non-sustained transmission of H5N1 to and between humans in prior decades, there's no need to create an alarmist, apocalypse scenario.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that at least one mink farm worker will die from any strain of bird flu in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
COP28: Mozambique to Present $80B Energy Transition Plan
According to a top energy official on Monday, Mozambique has authorized an ambitious new energy transition plan that would last until 2050 in the hopes of attracting investments of about $80B to expand the availability of electricity and boost renewable energy capabilities.
The Mozambican energy strategy is anticipated to be unveiled on Dec. 2 to prospective donors and international partners during the COP28 climate meeting in Dubai.
Pro-establishment narrative
Mozambique is joining a growing number of developing countries that are looking to the international community for assistance in making the switch from fossil fuels like coal to cleaner energy sources. Mozambique will present an investment strategy at the COP summit in Dubai. The ambitious plan is a revolutionary development for African nations, and Mozambique is leading the way to create a sustainable future for Africa and the world.
Establishment-critical narrative
Mozambique's government is trying to participate in the global initiative of reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and its new energy transition plan is certainly an ambitious endeavor. However, Mozambique is one of the world's poorest nations and has a long way to go to bring stable energy to its people. It will take a great deal of effort from this East African nation and the global community to make this renewable energy moonshot a success.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that renewable energy will contribute 25% or less to global electricity production in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New Zealand to Reverse Generational Smoking Ban
New Zealand's newly-formed coalition government has revealed that it intends to reverse legislation introduced under former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to ban cigarette sales in 2024 to individuals born after 2008.
The coalition government led by PM Christopher Luxton, which was sworn in on Monday, has stated its desire to repeal anti-smoking amendments — which also included limiting the amount of nicotine in cigarettes, as well as a reduction of tobacco retailers from 6K to 600 — by March 2024.
Narrative A
The prohibition of substances never works, and New Zealand's smoking ban was a poor decision in the first place. Those who couldn't have legally purchased cigarettes would have accessed them regardless, and the country's black market would've inevitably grown. While the government may have found alternatives to provide meaningful tax cuts, the reversal of cigarette prohibition kills two birds with one stone.
Narrative B
This decision prioritizes short-term funding over the long-term health of the country. With New Zealand's health services losing out on at least hundreds of millions of savings over the next two decades, as well as approximately 5K deaths a year no longer predicted to be prevented, the nation's younger generation is destined to bear the brunt of this poor decision later down the line.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that a country will implement a total civilian ban on the consumption and smoking of tobacco by January 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ukraine Official: Russia Intensifies Assault on Avdiivka
Russian forces are intensifying their push to capture the Donetsk city of Avdiivka, Vitalii Barabash, head of Ukraine's military administration in the city, said in a broadcast on Tuesday.
"Things in the Avdiivka sector have become even tougher," Barabash told the Ukrainian outlet Espreso TV. "The intensity of clashes has been increasing for some time. The Russians have opened up two more sectors from which they have begun making assaults. In the direction of Donetsk [city] ... and in the so-called industrial zone. The enemy is attempting to storm the city from all directions."
Pro-Ukraine narrative
As another winter approaches Ukraine, it's clear that Russia will once again use the despicable tactic of bombing the country's civilian energy facilities as it did last year, making rolling blackouts a feature of daily life in Ukraine. The country's better prepared to deal with such attacks than 12 months ago — but Ukrainians should still expect to see Russian Pres. Putin's attacks coming.
Pro-Russia narrative
Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and a mindset that they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Idaho Seeks SCOTUS Stay to Enforce Abortion Law
Lawyers from the Alliance Defending Freedom, who are representing the state of Idaho, requested Monday that the US Supreme Court grant an emergency stay allowing the state to enforce its Defense of Life Act, which forbids abortion at all stages of pregnancy with exceptions for the life of the mother and victims of rape or incest.
Under the law — which took effect after SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade last year — doctors and other medical professionals can face a minimum sentence of two years in prison and a six-month license suspension if found guilty of criminal abortion.
Republican narrative
SCOTUS should grant the stay or take the case. When SCOTUS overturned Roe, it gave abortion powers to the states, and this is a desperate attempt by the federal government to usurp that. EMTALA doesn’t mention abortion and can’t be used to interfere in a state’s ability to regulate the practice of medicine as it sees fit within its borders.
Democratic narrative
The stay must be left in place. This law is causing immense, needless suffering not just to women but also to their medical professionals and caregivers. Beyond stripping women of their right to choose, the law is forcing practitioners to flee the state, leaving all pregnant women with a shortage of doctors, and medical costs are going through the roof.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chinese Navy Ships Arrive in Myanmar Amid Heightened Tensions
Three Chinese navy ships, including the destroyer Zibo and the frigate Jingzhou, docked at ports in Yangon, Myanmar, on Monday afternoon, with a 700-strong naval task force on board to conduct joint naval security drills.
The vessels are part of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) 44th naval fleet, which has carried out anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali coast since 2008. Earlier this month, they were sighted in the United Arab Emirates.
Anti-China narrative
These joint naval drills can only reinforce that Beijing doesn't care about the suffering of the Burmese people under the military junta's tight grip at all, focusing exclusively on its own economic interests — particularly on projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative. As the Spring Revolution gains momentum, it's clear that the PRC has chosen the wrong side of history.
Pro-China narrative
Beijing has long sought to foster friendly relations based on the principle of mutual non-interference, so it's utterly reprehensible to say that China wants to meddle in Myanmar's internal affairs. Critics may claim that the PRC has boosted support for an alleged favored side, but, in reality, its latest actions aim to deal with any unforeseen spillover from the conflict in that country.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Koch Network Endorses Nikki Haley for President
Americans for Prosperity Action, the political network associated with billionaire Charles Koch, threw its weight behind former South Carolina Governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary race on Tuesday.
The decision, which is the first time the network has endorsed a primary candidate, comes seven weeks before the Iowa caucus.
Anti-Trump narrative
At this point, Republican voters aren't quite sure whether DeSantis or Haley is better, but they do know that Trump is the worst one of them all and must be defeated. As DeSantis' campaign has been struggling since its launch, his hope has been to retain the support of the donor class — with the Koch endorsement, however, Haley will not only gain the incredible funding and grassroots activism provided by AFP but the donor class may change their mind on who they'd prefer to back.
Pro-Trump narrative
It's unclear why the Koch network hates Trump so much, given that under his presidency, many of its preferred policies were enacted. While this could be seen as a boost to the Haley campaign, Trump is way ahead of any other candidate with a national average of 61.6% in the polls, compared to Haley's 9.8%. AFP seems to be giving it its best shot, but Trump's popularity and AFP's nonexistent policy qualms with the former president make this a curious decision at best.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3.6% chance that Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Portland, Ore. Teachers' Strike Ends
More than 40K Portland students Monday returned to classes after the end of the city’s first-ever teachers’ strike, which started Nov. 1.
Members of the Portland Association of Teachers on Sunday came to a tentative agreement with Portland Public Schools (PPS).
Right narrative
It's about time the teachers dropped their untenable financial demands and did what's best for children, who still missed far too much school. The teachers' union victimized both children and their parents, who were having COVID shutdown stress disorders while the strikers were on the picket lines. It’s time to get back to work and do what's best for the kids.
Left narrative
The teachers' union did what was necessary to secure vital improvements and financial commitments for a better future for both teachers and students. This was a watershed moment for the teachers of Portland, but also another case of workers from varying sectors in the US getting fed up and using union action to force better working conditions.
UN: AIDS Response 'Under Threat' Due to Stigmas
The United Nations AIDS program, UNAIDS, says that the global response to the disease is "under threat" due to a backlash against lifestyles that stigmatize groups most at risk of contracting the HIV infection.
Winnie Byanyima, executive director of UNAIDS, said that countries with laws targeting the LGBTQ community, sex work, and drug use are seeing a rise or plateau in new infections.
Left narrative
The erosion of human rights in many countries is not only a significant moral concern, but it also undermines the progress made toward ending AIDS as a public health threat. Countries are passing inhumane laws against the LGBTQ community, further stigmatizing a marginalized group that's at greater risk of contracting HIV. Countries should focus on helping communities by fighting AIDS instead of stigmatizing vulnerable groups.
Right narrative
Political correctness poses a far greater threat to public health and ending diseases like AIDS than these laws do. Groups like the UN and other so-called "public health" organizations promulgate this worldview but it's not correct. Promoting a healthy and moral society will go a long way toward ending AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases.
Nerd narrative
There's a 32% chance that the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 will be more than in 2017, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.