Pro-establishment narrative

Ukraine is a sovereign country that makes all its own decisions. The idea that Boris Johnson forced Ukraine's hand in how to proceed in peace negotiations is ridiculous. He simply warned that the country that's already invaded Ukraine's borders can't be trusted on peace talks — it's like negotiating with a crocodile that's got your leg.

Pro-Russia narrative

As Putin has said, Russia was never opposed to holding negotiations. Such talks, mediated by Turkey, were in fact held in the spring of last year. But after Ukraine signed a peace agreement and then, after Western pressure, turned around and threw it away, why should Russia again trust Ukraine?

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

While freeing hostages is of the utmost importance, Israel must not succumb to unfair international pressure. Hamas has a history of forcing uneven deals, and the Israeli war cabinet made the right decision by weighing its options before accepting this temporary pause. It should remain clear, however, that Israel's ultimate goal is to eliminate Hamas from the Gaza Strip, and Jerusalem will continue to work toward this end even if that necessitates a resumption of conflict.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel Defense Forces have inflicted disproportionate damage on the civilians of Gaza as opposed to on Hamas itself, and further assaults could lead to the deaths of many more. Israel has made a wise choice to bring its citizens home immediately through this temporary ceasefire, which should be extended. This will also see much-needed aid reach Gaza, where an utter humanitarian cataclysm has unfolded.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will announce that it will release at least 195 Palestinian prisoners/detainees by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Clearly, the Mexican government's program of providing bodyguards and other security measures for journalists who face threats has failed. Protocols to secure and investigate crimes against media members haven't been taken seriously. A key reason for the continuing problem is inaction against the perpetrators, which conveys that eliminating journalists is easy and free of repercussions.

Narrative B

Like other areas of power in Mexico, organized crime has seeped into considerable sections of the media, too. This has made identifying aggressive and effective journalists easy, especially in provincial areas of the country. It's vital to spread more in-depth and contextual information, which helps strengthen the public's confidence. This action is vital to support the institution of journalism in Mexico.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This attempted coup comes as no great surprise and is one of several recent attempts to overthrow the Bio government. Sierra Leone is in the middle of a severe economic crisis, with frustration growing among its people. The government rigged the 2023 elections to stay in power, further deepening political division and instability. Moreover, Bio refuses to implement the peace accord with the opposition, which provides for the release of all political prisoners. Sierra Leone will not find peace if the people's democratic will is ignored.

Narrative B

While investigations into the events are ongoing, whoever is responsible for these attacks is seeking to disrupt constitutional order. The people of Sierra Leone have fought hard to achieve stability after the civil war, and any attempt to undermine the country's efforts to deepen democracy and consolidate peace and security to promote economic development must be met with zero tolerance. There have been eight military coups in West and Central Africa in recent years, and every effort must be made to ensure that Sierra Leone doesn't suffer the same fate.

Narrative A

While the exact reason behind the ship's sinking is still unknown, this incident highlights how dangerous and unpredictable maritime transportation can be and how crucial it is to put safeguards in place to mitigate potential emergencies at sea and stop similar incidents from happening in future.

Narrative B

Another maritime catastrophe is unfolding in the Mediterranean. We have almost become used to African migrant ships in distress, but this time, it's an old cargo ship with a mechanical issue that sank due to poor weather. A vessel like that had no business being at sea under storm-like conditions.

Establishment-critical narrative

With the US being the largest producer of oil in the world, the decision for Biden not to attend what may be COP's most important conference is a serious blow to climate discussions. It's more urgent than ever for global leaders to come together, and yet multiple nations continue to refrain from confirming the attendance of major political figures. Without the presence of Biden, Xi Jinping, and many others, the likelihood of meaningful international agreements being achieved at the summit decreases substantially.

Pro-establishment narrative

It is not solely up to national politicians to protect our environment — business leaders, regional figures, and non-state stakeholders will be integral in influencing cross-border consensus. It is also inevitable that COP28 will see the benefit of the resumption of "soft relations" between the US and China. The UAE is set to convene one of the most inclusive conferences yet, with the potential to create decisive change for the world's future — Biden's absence is not a critical path to major success.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the average global temperature in 2100 will be at least 2.47˚C higher than the average global temperature in 1880, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Due to the instability in Congress created by Republicans, America's future assistance to Ukraine is now in jeopardy. This creates a risk that Ukraine will no longer be able to meaningfully defend itself from Russian aggression. Republicans need to end this political brinksmanship and support Ukraine's aid immediately.

Republican narrative

In spite of over $113B in US funding, the front lines in Ukraine have barely shifted in months of fighting. As such, Americans are right to ask what the strategy is and how the war will eventually be brought to a close. The US cannot be expected to continually throw money at the war, particularly with problems at home and with the national debt spiraling to over $5T.

Nerd narrative

There is a 0.5% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Russia narrative

Given that Meta has relaxed its rules to allow Russophobia as well as illegal calls for murder and violence against Russians in its social media platforms, it's no wonder that Andy Stone has been placed on a wanted list. The tech conglomerate has violated at least two articles of the Russian Criminal Code related to public calls for extremist activities and assisting in terrorist activities.

Anti-Russia narrative

The outrageous and senseless decision to put Andy Stone on a wanted list stems from the fact that Meta has successfully cracked down on Russian state-sponsored disinformation campaigns on its platforms since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine. Moscow is desperately trying to retaliate against those who obstruct its nefarious intentions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that a post-Putin Russia will substantially democratize within 5 years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Political, religious, and ethnic tensions have been on the rise since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack against Israel and the resulting bloody conflict in Gaza. An unfortunate consequence has been the rise of both foreign and domestic extremism targeting Jewish, Muslim, Palestinian, and Arab communities. This horrific incident is a consequence of soaring extremism in a polarizing geopolitical environment, and all stakeholders have a responsibility to tamp down toxic rhetoric that can lead to violence.

Narrative B

This is a tragic incident, and the public and media should not jump to conclusions. Eaton has a history of mental health struggles and was observed to be in a calm and positive mood before the incident. As more details emerge, the public will in due time learn about the motive and mental state of the alleged shooter and learn key context.

Republican narrative

The Biden administration and Democrats' slow-grind strategy for bringing inflation down is going to spoil consumers’ holiday shopping. High-interest rates are already tightening people's spending budgets, and now consumers are going to face less assistance and longer lines in stores because of the slowdown in hiring.

Democratic narrative

The Biden administration's approach to cooling inflation and bringing the economy back is working, as evidenced by employment in the retail industry and sales growth staying steady all year. If anything, Republicans' refusal to go along with the president's plans for student loan forgiveness is responsible for hurting spending. With student loan payments back on, consumers are less likely to spend on purchases.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the average American employee will work at least 31 hours per week in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Governments and the international community have finally woken up to the dangers of AI, and have responded by finally setting the wheels in motion to implement meaningful legislation. While many may be worried that such action has taken place too late, it's imperative that the world takes steps forward before there is a chance for AI malpractice to unethically influence a series of potentially globe-changing political events in 2024. As the US, UK, Germany, and others move towards general elections we must ensure that AI is safe, and can only be used for good.

Establishment-critical narrative

Current AI regulation proposals contain a host of problems that must be addressed. So far, there lacks a consensus as to what should be designated a "high" security risk, while the lack of binding legislation involving enforcement mechanisms means that great trust is placed in company transparency. While different continents continue to diverge in how they approach AI risk with no single regulator, the question of legislative limits to AI remains an unsolved global problem of extreme concern.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that there will be an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' by the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.