Studies: AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine Tied to Guillain-Barré Syndrome
Three separate studies have found a link between the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID vaccine and an increase in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) among people who were administered the shots.
GBS is a rare but deadly autoimmune disorder in which a person's peripheral nervous system is attacked, causing prolonged paralysis in some cases.
Narrative A
Notwithstanding the millions of lives that AstraZeneca's Vaxzevria has saved, the victims of its serious side effects need to be viewed separately as a category, and their plight treated with as much sensitivity as the pandemic itself. It reminds us of the imperfect risks of drug development and testing — especially during the heightened tensions during a pandemic — and that there can be unintended consequences.
Narrative B
The actual incidents of GBS resulting from Vaxzevria seem disproportionately low to the actual risk involved. It's not difficult to imagine the scale of the tragedy the world would have faced — especially the nations with weaker healthcare infrastructure — if Vaxzevria had not been one of the few silver bullets to have emerged at a crucial juncture. That "big picture" must not be lost sight of as the globe was rushing to market life-saving vaccines during the COVID pandemic.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 423K COVID deaths will occur (globally) in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Elite Afghan Troops Face Threat of Return to Taliban
Some 200 elite Afghan soldiers, trained and funded by the UK — who for years fought alongside the UK and other coalition forces against the Taliban — face imminent deportation from Pakistan to Afghanistan, where they'll likely face reprisals and ill-treatment, according to a BBC investigation.
Furthermore, a group of 32 former governors, prosecutors, and officials — who worked with the UK and US in Afghanistan's Helmand Province between 2006 and 2014 and fled to neighboring Pakistan after the Taliban returned to power in 2021 — reportedly face the same fate.
Establishment-critical narrative
Having promised these brave Afghans safe passage to the UK for their tireless work alongside the country, the UK has now failed to live up to its promise, leaving these people in harm's way. Unless this situation is rectified, this is a national disgrace for Britain.
Pro-establishment narrative
The UK is doing all it can, and the move to relocate hundreds of Afghans, who worked for the British military and government, to the UK has been accelerated. The Afghan Relocations and Assistance Program, supported by Embassies and High Commissions, remains open to eligible applicants.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the US will reopen its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, by February 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
India Supreme Court Upholds Stripping of Kashmir Special Status
India's Supreme Court has ruled that a 2019 law revoking Article 370 — which stripped the state of Jammu and Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status — is constitutional, meaning New Delhi can bring the region under the direct control of the federal government. Before Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) revoked the law, Jammu and Kashmir were given special rights not afforded to other Indian states.
The five-member court, led by Chief Justice D.Y. Chandrachud, ruled unanimously that the law passed in 1947 following India's independence from the UK was only meant to be temporary during wartime. India went to war with Pakistan shortly after its independence, and Pakistan has claimed the region as its own ever since.
Narrative A
This is yet another attack on Muslim rights and the region's autonomy by Prime Minister Modi's government. Jammu and Kashmir had already been stripped of the right to decide laws on defense, finance, foreign affairs, and communications for seven decades, and now progress has been rolled back even more. This defeat must be harnessed into political action.
Narrative B
As the court stated, the special status of Jammu and Kashmir was always temporary, and the region's temporary status continued for far too long. A country operating under two flags and two constitutions is destined to become weak and vulnerable, which is why the region has been undermined by Pakistani-led meddling and terrorism for years. Under the protection of New Delhi, both Hindus and Muslims alike will see a boon to the local economy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 45% chance that there will be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
European Countries Seek Additional Hamas Sanctions
France, Germany, and Italy called on Monday for the EU to set up a special sanctions scheme to target Hamas, weighing the possibility of targeting Hamas's finances and travel bans for Israeli settlers responsible for violence in the West Bank. Hamas is already listed by the EU as a terrorist group, and the foreign ministers did not provide details regarding what would change.
After a weekend of intense street battles, Israel has continued to advance into the urban centers throughout the Gaza Strip, in particular in the city of Khan Younis in the south. Despite Israel's gains on the ground, it has failed to completely prevent rocket fire from Gaza into Israel and rocket fire has also continued from Lebanon. So far, Israel has officially announced the loss of 104 of its soldiers, with another 582 soldiers being injured since the start of the ground war.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Hamas seized upon last week's temporary pause to mark Israeli positions and prepare itself for continued attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. Indeed, the pace at which Israeli forces maneuvered in Gaza threw Hamas's military leadership off-kilter, and Israel will have to work intelligently in its campaign in the south of the strip to fully eliminate the terrorist group so it can never launch an attack like Oct. 7 again.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Unfortunately, the temporary ceasefire only gave civilians a few days of relative rest, and now Israel has returned to killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate. The US, Israel's biggest ally, must exert more pressure to end the war.
Nerd narrative
There's a 54% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Poland: Donald Tusk to Become Prime Minister
Donald Tusk is set to become Poland's new prime minister after successfully being nominated by the Polish parliament on Monday evening. He will address the chamber on Tuesday before being sworn in alongside Poland's new coalition government by President Duda on Wednesday.
This follows a failed vote of confidence by current Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki earlier in the day, which came after his Law and Justice (PiS) Party failed to win a majority in the country's October elections.
Narrative A
The likely return of Tusk to the wheel of Polish politics is a sign of relief to Europe and the EU following eight years of hard-right governance. Having become a thorn in the side of the European project, Poland has a chance to recover and regain its role as a key state within the continent. Bordering Ukraine, the return of normality to Warsaw is an enormous boost to the region, ensuring greater strength against ill-intended actors.
Narrative B
Despite vowing to bring Poland back from the brink of relations with the EU, the prime minister-to-be will have a hard time juggling the plethora of ideologies found within his wide-reaching coalition. Despite having been given the first opportunity to form a government, the numbers meant that Morawiecki was always destined to fail. Time will only tell if Tusk can maintain stability in Poland, and it remains to be seen whether this will lead to a realignment of recent policies.
Tucker Carlson Launches Paid Streaming Service
Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has launched a streaming service, called the Tucker Carlson Network (TCN), offering subscriptions of $9 per month or $72 per year. In addition to films and short-form content, the service will offer three shows with new episodes each week: "The Tucker Carlson Encounter," which will be accessible without a subscription; "Tucker Carlson Uncensored;" and "Ask Tucker," where subscribers can ask questions.
In a video posted to X on Saturday — the platform formerly called Twitter and where Carlson has been streaming interviews since he left Fox in April — Carlson said he's spent the majority of the last year working on interviews and other content for the website, tuckercarlson.com. He also joked that "time flies when you're unemployed."
Left narrative
Tucker Carlson isn't the truth-to-power media rebel he claims the be. In reality, he's the man who made Fox News lose a defamation case over Dominion Voting Systems. Now, he's launching a media company to prop up conspiracy theorists like Alex Jones. Carlson has and continues to profit off of tragedy and lies. It remains to be seen how successful his company will be with such volatile content.
Right narrative
The establishment media, whether on the left or the right, doesn't understand that Tucker understands his audience better than they do. He understands the growing demand for uncensored political content from younger people, as well as the need to cover both the traditional short-form news show audience alongside the younger long-form audience. In doing so, Tucker is shining a light on voices no one else will. This streaming venture shows all the signs of being a massive success.
UN Warns of Funding Shortfall Amid Soaring Crises
The United Nations has appealed for $46B in funding for 2024 to continue its humanitarian missions worldwide, including in the Palestinian territories, Sudan, and Ukraine
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in its Global Humanitarian Overview for 2024, that over 300M people will need humanitarian support of some kind next year due to economic stress, climate emergencies, and conflict.
Pro-establishment narrative
The global humanitarian outlook for next year is bleak. Conflict, natural disasters, and economic pressures will continue to threaten the lives of vulnerable people worldwide. The global community must address this urgent flash appeal to further support the UN system — the lives of millions of people are on the line.
Establishment-critical narrative
The UN system is not devoid of controversy. Inadequate oversight has left millions of dollars of funds open to misuse, and some development projects have been subject to fraud and corruption. As an organization, the UN receives an enormous amount of funding every year. Perhaps it's time to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the UN and its bureaucracy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050 will be at least $125 billion, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Won’t Testify in NY Civil Fraud Trial
Former US Pres. Donald Trump on Sunday announced via social media he would not be testifying this week on the part of his defense in the New York Attorney General’s civil fraud case against him, his family, and his business.
Trump wrote he "successfully and conclusively" testified in this case, which he called directed by Pres. Joe Biden. He also claimed that NY Attorney General Letitia James, whom he called "racist," and Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron should be investigated.
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump couldn't help but incriminate himself in testimony during this and other cases against him. The gag order which has been imposed by Engoron probably also affected this decision because Trump would have risked fines, or even jail time if he found himself again unable to stop attacking those covered by the protective order.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump knows to quit when he's ahead, and he's smart to stop participating in this witch hunt by James, who ran for her office on a politicized, anti-Trump platform. Trump's prior testimony shot down these accusations despite attempts by the court to restrict his free speech with a gag order. Trump's defense witnesses have been impeccable as well. This case will be easily won by the former president.
Nerd narrative
There is a 46% chance that Donald Trump will be elected president of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rudy Giuliani Goes to Trial to Determine Damages in Defamation Case
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani arrived at a Washington, D.C. court Monday morning as he faces a trial to determine the damages he must pay related to a defamation lawsuit brought by two Georgia election workers. Giuliani was found liable in August for making defamatory statements about the two workers.
The plaintiffs, Ruby Freeman and her daughter, Wandrea "Shaye" Moss, are seeking between $15.5M and $43M in damages for the emotional and reputational harm that came from Giuliani’s remarks following the 2020 election. Giuliani was a lawyer for former Pres. Donald Trump when he challenged the election results.
Left narrative
Rudy Giuliani and Donald Trump's other conspirators are complicit in the former president’s efforts to illegally overturn the 2020 election results and must be held accountable. Giuliani knowingly spread conspiracy theories while representing Trump and used his prominent platform to provoke threats against two Georgia election workers. Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss were doing their patriotic duty by volunteering to serve American democracy, yet Rudy Giuliani defamed them, putting them in danger, just to spread lies on behalf of Donald Trump. He owes the plaintiffs everything they seek.
Right narrative
The mainstream media refuses to report the truth when it comes to the 2020 election, and the left-leaning regime is attacking its political opponents from all angles. Related to the “false” statements Rudy Giuliani made about two Georgia election workers, suppressed documents and videos show quite a different point of view and at least merit investigation with due diligence. The court system will try to send a message by ordering Giuliani to pay millions, but there are deeper systemic issues here.
Nerd narrative
There's a 56% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hong Kong 'Patriots Only' Election Sees Record Low Turnout
Hong Kong saw a record-low 27.5% voter turnout on Sunday for its first "patriots only" district council elections, which saw pro-democracy, anti-China candidates removed from the ballot. This followed a record-high turnout in 2019, where pro-democracy candidates won in a landslide, prompting Beijing to pass a 2020 security law banning any candidates deemed disloyal.
Sunday's election saw the pro-establishment Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) winning 109 of the 264 seats up for grabs, with the Federation of Trade Unions taking 27 and New People's Party and the Business and Professionals Alliance winning 15 and 12 seats, respectively.
Anti-China narrative
Voter turnout was low for two similar reasons no one believed their vote would actually count, and if they did step outside to the polls, they risked getting arrested for being a dissident. Ever since young activists spurred record turnout in 2019, Beijing has ensured that, no matter how obviously fraudulent it looked to the rest of the world, Hong Kong would never again conduct a free and fair election. This has not only kept voters on the island from heading to the polls but some opposition leaders from wanting to return home from abroad.
Pro-China narrative
Beijing tightened candidacy criteria to prevent politicians in cahoots with Western nations from sneaking into office to undermine China and its territories. Beijing also isn't lying about the historically low voter turnout but rather knows that it will take time for the population to understand the importance of excluding traitorous candidates from gaining power. Western-funded outlets like the BBC and VOA are only focusing on Hong Kong's low turnout because they know their own countries' elections are just as "corrupt" as they accuse Beijing of being.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by March 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Argentina: Javier Milei Warns of Economic Shock in Inaugural Address
After being sworn in as Argentina’s president on Sunday, Javier Milei delivered his inaugural address, warning the country about the economic shock that his administration will deliver. The libertarian economist said that "there is no money" and "there is no alternative to austerity."
Thousands of Milei's supporters gathered in the capital city of Buenos Aires to celebrate the inauguration. Addressing the nation, Milei reiterated his policy to address Argentina's dire economic concerns and continued to speak bluntly about the issues he spoke about often during his campaign.
Right narrative
Argentina made the correct choice in picking Javier Milei as the leader to lift the country out of its economic disaster; however, the road to economic prosperity is long and arduous. There is no quick fix to Argentina’s triple-digit inflation and rising poverty, and harsh measures are needed to undo decades of damage done by socialist leaders. While sound, free-market economic measures are needed to save Argentina, the situation is so dire that it will take time for these policies to yield positive results. Socialism plagued Argentina, and the country must accept the medicine it needs to get better, even if it results in short-term pain.
Left narrative
Javier Milei is another Trump-style authoritarian who is working to destroy his country’s democracy. Milei capitalized on Argentina’s severe economic troubles to push a platform of hate and extremism. The self-described libertarian is actually a fascist who wants to use his power to undo the progress Argentina has made on human rights and democratic issues. Milei’s extreme economic policies may not even be implemented and could exacerbate economic hardship if they are. Milei has already promised austerity measures — his autocratic impulses are deeply concerning.
Nerd narrative
There is a 24% chance, that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.