Pro-establishment narrative

The Malian junta's claim that MINUSMA was a failure is false, as its mandate was not to recapture territory lost to the Islamists, but to strengthen the Malian army's capabilities in the fight against the extremists. Moreover, the UN stabilization mission acted as a mediator between some rebel groups and the military junta in Bamako to lay the foundations for lasting peace. MINUSMA has been a success, and the military government in Bamako kicking France and the UN out of the country is irresponsible — Mali is not yet in a position to ensure the country's security on its own.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the UN is claiming its ten-year presence to be a success, Mali's security situation has continued to deteriorate. Remarkably, it was only after MINUSMA pulled out of one of its bases in the north that the Malian government was able to achieve a major strategic victory against separatist rebels. That this was achieved with the support of Russia's Wagner Group is further proof that Bamako's move to seek new allies was right. The fact that MINUSMA is following France's example and has officially ended its Mali mission will help restore Mali's stability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 61% chance that Mali will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community,

Anti-Trump narrative

The request attempts to keep the American legal system's schedule on track by bypassing the appellate process being used by Trump to delay his legal reckoning. Although an unusual procedure, there is precedent in Nixon's criminal trial. With creativity, Smith has undermined Trump's attempts to grind the American judicial system to a halt.

Pro-Trump narrative

Smith's attempt to rush a decision exposes a desire to bury the former president by the Spring of next year. With Super Tuesday set to occur a day after the start of Trump's March trial, it's no coincidence that the legal queries are being fast-tracked to undermine Trump's political campaign.

Nerd narrative

There's a 56% chance of Trump being jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

In a world gripped by violence — and with the US facing more threats than ever before, from Iran-backed terrorists to the Chinese government — Section 702 of FISA allows the US government to collect critical intelligence on foreigners abroad to protect the nation. While the Intelligence Committee bill would make much-needed reforms, it would keep America's core intelligence capabilities alive. Meanwhile, its alternative degrades US intelligence capabilities and puts Americans at greater risk.

Establishment-critical narrative

Under FISA's current rules, the CIA, NSA, and other intel agencies have spied on over 200K Americans without warrants in the last year alone. That figure included a number of egregious violations, such as spying on domestic campaigners, journalists, and even members of Congress. The Judiciary Committee bill would make the necessary reforms to reign in the unconstitutional parts of FISA. Its alternative, the Intelligence Committee bill, plans to expand FISA's scope, only leading to more violations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 78% chance that another 9/11 on US soil will be prevented at least through 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The American people have all but given up on Biden's domestic and foreign policy skills, which is why he must finally take the role of lead negotiator in this debate and give the GOP what it wants in exchange for Ukraine aid. As countless illegal migrants cross the border every day, Biden's approval on immigration has dropped to 33%. If he wishes to continue funding Ukraine, let alone win in 2024, he will have to listen to the desires of the American people, including the GOP, and demand a solution before Congress breaks for the holidays.

Democratic narrative

While some Republicans may care about border security, that's not why the Trump loyalists in the House are blocking this bill. What they actually care about is creating governmental chaos to the point where it looks as if governmental institutions themselves don't work. This is why they almost shut down the government during the budget debate and will likely do it again next month. The GOP wants to erode every norm of American politics, and not only is America paying the price but, shamefully, Ukraine is as well.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Ukraine will have a Democracy Index of at least 5.64 by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Tesla has exposed both employee and customer data on a global scale, which is why governments across the West are scrambling to probe the source of these breaches and develop security measures to prevent future scandals of this kind. While Tesla claims a "disgruntled former employee" is behind the bad press, other employees have come forward with similar findings. More than 100K files of personal information are vulnerable to international bad actors due to Tesla's failed security systems, which could jeopardize US security and give the PRC an advantage.

Narrative B

While steps toward better data protection should certainly be taken, it's important to understand the positive diplomatic outcomes of Tesla's business dealings in China. In the words of Elon Musk, the US and China are co-dependent superpowers who, without economic ties, could very well end up on opposing sides of the battlefield. In a similar fashion to sporting events, individual Western-based companies offering olive branches to China could help cool tensions as the economic world order begins to shift. The big picture shows Tesla being a boon to warming US-PRC relations in general.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that Tesla will become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This landmark verdict takes a strong stance against sexual violence in Japan and is the first step in proving that the nation's recent amendments to its sexual crime laws is making concrete progress. This is a win not only for Gonoi but for all victims of sexual violence. These efforts should be celebrated.

Narrative B

This verdict is a good start, but much more needs to be done to promote gender equality in Japan and to lift the taboo around speaking out about sexual violence. Gonoi should have been taken seriously from the beginning, and the misconduct of the soldiers involved should never have been considered acceptable. The culture itself is what needs an overhaul.

Pro-Trump narrative

Biden is on a rapid decline while Trump is on the upswing. This poll — like a sea of others — shows Democrats still don’t understand their voters’ desires, let alone the resurging significance of Trump's base. And Democrats should be even more concerned if a third-party candidate stays in the race until the end.

Anti-Trump narrative

Although it’s scary to imagine Trump’s return to the White House, these recent surveys — almost a year out from the election — don’t reflect a resounding Trump win and their predictions are easily avoided. Biden may take a hit if certain non-White younger voters decide not to vote, but all he has to do is motivate the traditional Democratic base, and his second term will be safe.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 46% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Harvard's defense of Gay's disgraceful comments is hypocritical considering the university's struggles with allowing free speech that it disagrees with on campus. While it's possible that Gay does wish to push back on antisemitism now that the issue has been raised, it seems more likely that any promises of protecting its Jewish community are a cynical move that doesn't address the oppressive ideologies that are pervasive in American college campuses. Harvard has deep work to do to protect the Jewish community and reject the knee-jerk cancelation of free speech alike.

Narrative B

While antisemitism, like many other forms of hate, is a problem within Harvard and America that must be solved, it's disingenuous for Congress to reshape the reality of campus life at the university. Gay's comments were a specific response in relation to Harvard's codified policies concerning harassment and bullying. Harvard's diverse academics — including scholars of religion and the Middle East — backed this move. The University is dedicated to being a safe space for its entire community.

Nerd narrative

There is a 51% chance that Harvard's endowment will be larger in 2119 than in 2019, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Sports Illustrated was once the gold standard for sports journalism, and it still employs some of the world's best writers — of the actual human variety. However, this scandal of using artificial intelligence to create stories written by fake people is an utter disgrace to journalism and a slap in the face to illustrious and seasoned writers. Not only does AI produce inferior work, but it also casts a division between an outlet and its readers. Consumers are skeptical of AI for a reason, and the journalism industry should not replace talented writers with AI-generated avatars.

Narrative B

While public backlash is focused on Sports Illustrated for using AI-generated authors to write stories, the larger focus should be on the entire industry of journalism. The fact is that journalism has undergone serious transformations throughout history, especially since the digital age. Change comes rapidly, and we are now in the age of artificial intelligence. While it may be a sad development for some, the use of AI authors is a natural progression as technology advances, and Sports Illustrated shouldn’t be singled out for this broad trend of changing times.

Nerd narrative

There's a 95% chance that AI will be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Monday’s COP28 draft text is not a sufficient resolution to guide climate policy, and any international agreement that wants to seriously tackle global warming must call for the total phase-out of oil, gas, and coal. The scientific consensus is clear, and net-zero emissions by 2050 are the only way to avoid a global climate catastrophe. While such policies may harm the economies of oil-rich nations, the overall health of our planet takes precedence over economic concerns. UN leaders must come together with a strongly worded draft that provides clarity on how to eliminate fossil fuels and protect the planet.

Narrative B

Climate activists are becoming dangerously close to climate extremists who fervently push for dangerous measures that could do more harm than good. While many people can agree that climate change is a serious issue and that fossil fuels contribute to the global warming of Earth, it does not mean that we should resort to extreme policies that could destroy our modern way of life and collapse the energy sector of nations. Protecting the planet is very important, and there are reasonable measures that can produce a sustainable future, but shouting for an all-or-nothing approach to fossil fuels is unproductive.

Nerd narrative

There's a 43% chance that large-scale solar radiation management will be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century, according to the Metaculus prediction community.