Pro-Israel narrative

These allegations falsely suggest that Israel committed a war crime by using white phosphorus and damaged the reputation of the Israeli military. The IDF's use of smoke grenades with white phosphorus complies with international law and serves to obscure the enemy, not to attack. There's no reason for Washington to be concerned, as the Israeli Supreme Court in 2013 imposed very strict conditions on the army's use of white phosphorus in populated areas. All Israel is doing is defending its population following the laws of war against Hezbollah and other terrorist groups in Lebanon.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The report confirms accusations made by human rights groups that Israel repeatedly committed war crimes against civilians by using white phosphorus in Lebanon, but also in Gaza. While the deployment of this toxic chemical may be legal under certain circumstances, it is obvious that its allegedly purely military use near populated areas also puts civilians at risk. That the US has supplied Israel with such munitions makes it complicit in Israel's war crimes. As usual, Washington is "concerned," but will probably not take any further action against its close ally as civilian horrors continue to mount in Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that there will be 400 or more deaths from armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

While Sunak will be relieved by the bill's initial passing, the Prime Minister's authority has been damaged as his own party can't even agree on this policy. Sunak now faces a prolonged period of political infighting after promising amendments to the legislation in return for support within the Commons. With only a fragile hold over the government, an early election in the new year may materialize if the Rwanda bill doesn't successfully pass through Parliament.

Right narrative

The public supports the Rwanda plan, despite frustrating blockades by the UK's judiciary. Parliament is sovereign and the government's latest treaty ensures that Rwanda will uphold its end of the deal. Judges are not policymakers and should not be expected to influence politics in this manner. The Conservative government will continue its already successful reduction in immigration — the passing of this policy in Parliament is only the beginning of stricter border security.

Nerd narrative

There is a 12% chance that the Torries led by Rishi Sunak will form the first government after the next UK election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite Pres. Vladimir Putin's bet that the American people will hang Ukraine out to dry, the US remains a steadfast supporter of Ukraine. Although Congress is currently debating Ukraine's next potential security packages, the US will no doubt prove Putin wrong and give Ukraine all the military assistance it needs in order to defeat him.

Establishment-critical narrative

Although Pres. Joe Biden promised Ukraine a great deal, in reality, his words indicated he was a lot less certain that he'd be able to deliver them. "As long as it takes," has turned into "As long as we can." On the question of further aid packages, Biden said he was "not making promises."

Nerd narrative

There's a 21% chance that the next Russian leader will disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Hamas seized upon the temporary pause to mark Israeli positions and prepare itself for continued attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. Indeed, the pace at which Israeli forces maneuvered in Gaza threw Hamas's military leadership off-kilter, and Israel will have to work intelligently in its campaign in the south of the strip to fully eliminate the terrorist group so it can never launch an attack like Oct. 7 again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Unfortunately, the temporary ceasefire only gave civilians a few days of relative rest, and now Israel has returned to killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate. The US, Israel's biggest ally, must exert more pressure to end the war.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While international organizations like the UN understand that more action will be needed to fully phase out fossil fuels, this agreement is still a historic accomplishment for the planet. The progress made included tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 and financial commitments to the Loss and Damage Fund. As for a complete phase-out, the deal reached in Dubai on Wednesday has laid the groundwork for the inevitable end to burning coal and gas — even in the richest oil-burning countries.

Narrative B

Despite this being the most ambitious UN climate deal in history, no commitments to completely phase out fossil fuels were made, let alone strategies to help climate-affected communities in the present. This is probably because, despite references to "the science," which has been clear for decades, more than 1K fossil fuel industry lobbyists attended the event. The final text of the deal was also cleansed of any language related to justice, which means the smaller countries most at risk of climate change won't be seeing concrete action for a long time.

Narrative C

Fortunately, the scientific overlords didn't get everything they wanted at this year's climate summit. For all their talk about representing the masses and winning justice for the voiceless, in reality, UN climate policy is set by a select few power-hungry pseudoscientists who still travel around the globe in gas-guzzling planes. COP28 truly does mark the beginning of the end to fossil fuels — which means the end of eating meat, using a gas stove, and countless other draconian laws coming soon to a government near you.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the average global temperature in 2100 will be 2.50˚C higher than the average global temperature in 1880, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Hunter's little stunt on Capitol Hill has only dug himself deeper into a hole. Besides opening himself up to contempt charges, the president's son also exposed his continual shifting of the goalposts concerning how involved his father was in his business dealings. Stating that his dad was not "financially" involved is much different than his previous claims; having previously asserted "no involvement" at all. Now, however, the world knows there were dinners and phone calls involving Joe Biden. It's time to charge Hunter Biden with contempt and pursue impeachment for Joe Biden.

Democratic narrative

The so-called bombshell evidence Republicans have tying Hunter and his father to corruption allegations is merely a money transfer reimbursement for truck payments. With that incredibly weak evidence in hand, it's no wonder why these far-right activist politicians want to hide their likely insignificant deposition from the public. This is a concerning GOP kangaroo court with so-called "evidence" being cherry-picked and absurdly taken out of context.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Javier Milei is staying true to his campaign promises and doing what’s best for Argentina, even if it stings in the short term. He understands that triple-digit inflation and a 40% poverty rate cannot come down overnight and that the only viable solution is to drastically reduce the size of government. While many politicians around the world print more money to temporarily stave off growing doom, Milei is taking a principled stand that will benefit future generations of Argentinians.

Left narrative

The man who can't understand the data on COVID deaths shouldn't be in charge of national economic policy. Milei is taking a radical and dangerous approach that could further damage Argentina’s fragile economy and democracy. The far-right leader calls himself a libertarian but is acting far more like a fascist with his austerity measures as he exploits the anxiety of Argentinians to portray a doomsday scenario that can only be fixed by him.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

It’s the role of SCOTUS to make sure the appeals court isn’t legislating from the bench. The Dobbs decision didn’t ban abortion nationwide; it gave dominion over abortion to the states. By severely restricting this safe and effective method of obtaining an abortion, the appeals court has overstepped its bounds — effectively outlawing the procedure even where it’s legal. SCOTUS must also make sure that the FDA isn’t undermined, or the future of that vital agency could be in jeopardy.

Right narrative

The FDA must be stopped from arbitrarily approving drugs that doctors have warned can have ill effects just so the Democratic administration can fulfill its promise to provide abortion on demand to those who wish to violate the rights of the unborn. Making mifepristone widely available allows a path for circumventing restrictions that have legally been adopted since the Dobbs decision.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Big Pharma’s greed is spreading across the United States and the world. Greed-filled deals lead to monopolies on critical lifesaving drugs that result in greater costs for Americans while maximizing profiteering. It’s high time that Americans recognize this tragedy and call out these companies and the elected officials supporting them. This latest merger and acquisition is just the latest example of monopolization in this sector.

Pro-establishment narrative

Leading a successful pharmaceutical company is a good deed that's often punished. There are constant news stories of professionals saving lives, yet pharmaceutical companies saving millions of lives are often defamed. Companies labeled as “Big Pharma” took the lead during the COVID pandemic and got heads of governments to prepare products that have saved millions. These companies work hand-in-hand with government regulators too — mergers like this one are a boon for healthcare and consumers.

Nerd narrative

There is a 28% chance that there will be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While the Musk-hating establishment mocked previous iterations of Tesla’s Optimus Bot, the newly unveiled Optimus 2.0 has silenced many critics by displaying Musk’s ingenuity. In just a short period, Tesla has vastly improved the bot’s size and functionality while showing the android performing various neat tricks. Musk is certainly a very ambitious man that most people cannot understand. However, his company continues to push boundaries, and it's not unthinkable that he could pull off creating a functional humanoid robot that can perform dangerous jobs currently performed by humans.

Narrative B

Elon Musk is back again with another strange Tesla brainchild, unveiling the disturbingly creepy Optimus 2.0 robot. The video of the robot cracking an egg and dancing is unsettling, to say the least, but it does show just how far madman Musk will go to replace Tesla’s workforce with robots. The Tesla Bot proved to be an embarrassment when it debuted last year, and while its successor has many improvements, it remains to be seen if it can fulfill Musk’s vision. Nonetheless, a “successful” robot could be the worst outcome for everyone — except for the billionaire and his henchmen.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that “Tesla Bots” will be available to US consumers by January 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.