Pakistan Court Indicts Imran Khan in State Secrets Case
Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and his close aid, former foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, were charged on Wednesday with leaking state secrets — another setback for the jailed politician seeking to run in Pakistan's February general election.
Both pleaded not guilty to the charges, reportedly read out loudly in the Adiala jail courtroom, of making public a classified cable that Pakistan's ambassador to Washington had sent to Islamabad in 2022.
Narrative A
It's encouraging for the rule of law in Pakistan that the case against Imran Khan is now being retried. The former prime minister, who claims to be a victim of a US conspiracy, exploited an unoffensive secret cable to fabricate a narrative against the opposition parties and state institutions. By making the document public — and not returning it — Khan indulged in political opportunism with the help of Shah Mahmood Qureshi, willfully damaging US-Pakistan relations and violating the country's laws. It's high time that power-hungry Khan is removed from political life.
Narrative B
The charges against Khan and Qureshi are a farce and politically motivated to prevent the former Prime Minister, who is very popular, from running for office. This explains the haste and lack of transparency in proceedings earlier declared unconstitutional by the Islamabad High Court. Instead of Khan, it should be those who conspired to topple him in 2022 who must stand trial. There is a reason the explicit secret cable must be withheld from the indicted duo — if Khan is convicted, Pakistan is in for troubled times just before the elections.
Nerd narrative
There is an 82% chance of an India-Pakistan armed conflict leading to at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US House Votes to Formalize Biden Impeachment Inquiry
The US House of Representatives voted Wednesday along party lines 221-212 to formalize an impeachment inquiry into Democratic Pres. Joe Biden, following Republican allegations that Biden and his family have taken part in an "influence peddling" scheme with foreign entities for financial gain.
While focusing on the president, Republicans have also used their inquiry to look into his son, Hunter Biden, and overseas business deals that they claim may have benefited the elder Biden.
Republican narrative
A political victory for Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republicans, investigations into the Bidens' dodgy business dealings are about uncovering the truth. Although Biden might not ultimately be impeached, it’s still important to follow the evidence to the end and inform the American electorate of Biden's true nature prior to next year's presidential election.
Democratic narrative
Instead of addressing Americans’ concerns on issues of real substance, House Republicans are going on a wild goose chase without any evidence. If they truly wished to deliver meaningful good, they would stop prioritizing this sham over passing much-needed legislation. This impeachment vote merely reaffirms that Republicans are not fit to govern public office.
Cynical narrative
As seen with Trump in 2019, and now with Biden, the possibility of impeachment – once the heavyweight of public office discipline – has become a fickle and arbitrary threat used by both sides of the political spectrum. For such a tool to be abused by both Republicans and Democrats is embarrassing and highlights how low American politics has fallen in recent years.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that Biden will be impeached by the House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Putin Holds Annual Press Conference as Re-Election Bid Begins
After announcing his bid for re-election last week, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin held his annual press conference on Thursday, this year combining the event with "direct line" — an opportunity for everyday Russians to write to Putin with their questions and concerns. The Kremlin said that roughly 2M people had submitted questions ahead of the four-hour event which took place in Moscow.
Putin's opening remarks noted his thoughts on the importance of Russia's sovereignty. He said the economy was strong for a country in war-time before the subject quickly turned to Ukraine. "There will be peace [in Ukraine] when we achieve our objectives," he said, adding that Russia's goals of "de-Nazification," demilitarization and of Ukraine's neutral status remain unchanged from the outset of the war.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a highly choreographed event that's intended to invigorate Putin's 2024 election campaign. With the Kremlin screening questions to paint Putin in a favorable light, this whole event is a spectacle rather than any real attempt to have scrutiny.
Pro-Russia narrative
As is customary every year, Putin gives people from across Russia — be they journalists or otherwise — the opportunity to ask him questions on all manner of issues relating to the state, its health and its direction. This is an unfiltered event where Putin speaks openly.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Putin will cease to hold the office of president of Russia by November 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Armenia and Azerbaijan Exchange Prisoners of War
32 Armenians captured between 2020-2023 were traded on Wednesday in return for two Azerbaijani soldiers held captive since April this year, with the exchange taking place on the border between the two countries.
In a statement posted on Facebook, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that all 32 prisoners had crossed the border from Azerbaijan, and are to "undergo a preliminary medical examination" before returning to their families.
Narrative A
The agreement of a prisoner exchange between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a historic development that the region is hopeful will be the first step towards an end to hostilities. Amicable developments are an unexpected turn after decades of conflict, and the unified call for security surely paves the way toward further reconciliation via a peace treaty.
Narrative B
A peace treaty does not need to be in place to advance improved bilateral relations between Baku and Yerevan. The prisoner exchange is a helpful example that, even without a peace treaty, the two nations can cooperate without an accord. Although inevitably still the end goal, practical normalization must be prioritized over a rushed approach towards ink on paper.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that Azerbaijan will invade Armenia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia: Mother's Convictions for Killing Children Overturned
On Thursday, the New South Wales Criminal Appeals Court in Sydney overturned the convictions of Kathleen Folbigg after she spent two decades imprisoned for the deaths of her four children.
In 2003, Folbigg was found guilty of three counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in the deaths of her young children. The evidence provided was circumstantial and the case was made on the assumption that it was highly unlikely her four children all died of natural causes.
Narrative A
The case of Kathleen Folbigg — which has largely played out in the press — should force Australia to pursue legal reforms to its broken system, which failed to keep up with the science. With the speed of scientific advancements, the courts must evolve just as quickly to ensure that no one else sits unjustly in prison as their life passes by.
Narrative B
This gross miscarriage of justice stems from far beyond just a failure to keep with the science efforts to prove her innocence were actively stifled by a complacent legal system that negligently relied purely on circumstantial evidence. It's time that Australia implement an independent post-conviction review commission to increase the effectiveness and trustworthiness of the criminal court system.
UN: Gaza 'Living Hell’ After Heavy Rains Flood Makeshift Camps
The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip continues to deteriorate after heavy rainfall washed out tents and flooded some areas. Nearly all of Gaza's population — estimated at around 85% [of the strip's population of over 2M people] — have been displaced by Israeli bombardment and military operations, with hunger and disease increasingly running rampant. The head of the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees described the situation as a “living hell" as fighting rages across the entire strip.
Israeli officials disputed US Pres. Joe Biden's comments that Israel's bombing campaign has been indiscriminate. One official also rejected an intelligence assessment reported by CNN that 45% of the 29K air-to-ground munitions that Israel has dropped on Gaza since Oct. 7 have been unguided "dumb bombs," saying that a bomb's accuracy is determined by the pilot dropping the munition.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Hamas seized upon the temporary pause to mark Israeli positions and prepare itself for continued attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. Indeed, the pace at which Israeli forces maneuvered in Gaza threw Hamas's military leadership off-kilter, and Israel will have to work intelligently in its campaign in the south of the strip to fully eliminate the terrorist group so it can never launch an attack like Oct. 7 again.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Unfortunately, the temporary ceasefire only gave civilians a few days of relative rest, and now Israel has returned to killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate. The US, Israel's biggest ally, must exert more pressure to end the war.
Nerd narrative
There's a 54% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Fed Holds Rates Steady, Projects Cuts in ‘24
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday announced for the third straight time that it wouldn't be changing its key short-term interest rate from its 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.
In addition, the central bank suggested there could be three rate cuts next year, reducing the rate by three-quarters of a percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference that “the appropriate level will be 4.6% at the end of 2024.”
Democratic narrative
The economic recovery from the COVID era is nearing the finish line and we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Inflation, jobs, wages, and consumer spending data are all doing so well, even the deliberate Powell has been moved to hold rates steady and forecast potential decreases. The markets reacted well to the news and it looks like the US, under Pres. Joe Biden, is headed toward a great 2024.
Republican narrative
The Biden administration and the Fed can spin these numbers in their favor, but they shouldn’t ignore that Americans have faced more than two years of negative real wages because inflation has outpaced wage growth. Americans’ spending power has been decimated and their debt has skyrocketed because of the inflation brought on by Democrats’ big spending. We can’t trust the current regime to truly get the economy rolling.
Nerd narrative
There's a 45% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK to Protect Provocative University Speech Surrounding Israel and Palestine
Arif Ahmed, the UK's new Director of Freedom of Speech and Academic Freedom within the Office for Students (OfS), has announced that students will be allowed to make controversial statements regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, with colleges and universities facing fines for restricting such speech. Allowable rhetoric includes supporting a "global intifada" against Israel and slogans like "from the river to the sea."
Ahmed clarified, however, that speech related to "illegal harassment," stirring up "racial hatred," or "calls for genocide" would not be acceptable "under any circumstances."
Pro-Palestine narrative
Pro-Palestine protesters should be allowed to speak freely on campus and anywhere else their message needs to be heard. While some governments and universities are beginning to understand this, others, particularly in the US, are still silencing student speech while simultaneously allowing Palestinian activists to be doxxed, threatened, and harassed. The real issue at hand here is Israel's brutal treatment of Palestinians — a debate our institutions aren't allowing to happen, and pro-Palestinian speech is often unfairly conflated with hate speech.
Pro-Israel narrative
While pro-Palestine activists claim they're simply asserting their right to question Israel and defend racial minorities in the West, what they've actually done is categorize their racial counterparts as an enemy to be defeated at all costs. This has led Hamas sympathizers, under the protection of today's polarized political climate, to live peacefully in cities like London while Jews face the worst attack on their people since the Holocaust. Antisemitic speech can never be tolerated under any circumstances.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by September 2067, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: US Terror Watchlist Reaches 2M People
A new CBS Reports investigation has found that the FBI's Terrorist Screening Dataset (TSD) now includes roughly 2M individuals, up from 120K in 2003 and 1.16M in 2017. FBI policy states there must be "reasonable suspicion" to place someone on the list, though it doesn't specify what those suspicions are and will neither confirm nor deny names on the list.
According to a four-decade veteran intelligence worker, Russ Travers, a name on the list "doesn't mean they're a terrorist" but rather that "This person needs a closer look." Monte Hawkins, who has been a member of the National Security Council since 9/11, stated that "a vast majority" of those on the list are not US citizens or legal residents.
Left narrative
Numerous Americans have been wrongfully added to the terror watchlist due to the TSD's inherent racial biases, causing them reputational damage and hindering their ability to travel freely or find a job. One Air Force veteran, Saadiq Long, who has no criminal record, was pulled over three times in just over a month due to his Muslim name being in a gang member database connected to TSD. People like him not only struggle to fly or find jobs but also have to deal with cops pulling them over on a routine basis simply due to how their name is spelled.
Right narrative
The terror watchlist is certainly flawed, but not for the reasons the liberal media would tell you. The real issue at hand is that the FBI continually flags actual criminals, investigates them, and then lets them loose to commit their crimes. This happened in 2016 after Omar Mateen, the Orlando, Fl., mass shooter who was investigated two times before being let loose into the public to freely purchase weapons. Mateen had been on the list but was taken off for murky reasons.
Japan's Kishida Ousts Four Cabinet Ministers Over Financial Scandal
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida forced the resignation of four cabinet ministers on Thursday as the leader looks to regain public trust amid the fallout of a large financial scandal that has haunted his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, a close ally of Kishida, Economy and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, Internal Affairs Minister Junji Suzuki, and Agriculture Minister Ichiro Miyashita were all let go. The ministers are from Japan’s Abe faction, which is the LDP’s most powerful faction named after former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated.
Narrative A
While the LDP has built enough power over the last seven decades to not crumble from the Abe era corruption scandal, Japan's ruling party is severely wounded and may not be able to continue its run of dominance forever. Prime Minister Kishida’s approval rating was already falling thanks to debilitating inflation, and now, the Japanese people have even more reason to question the credibility of their government. Corruption plagued the Abe regime, as bureaucrats and legislators lined their pockets, but Kishida may not be completely clean in this scandal either.
Narrative B
Kishida values maintaining transparency and promoting trust in his government, and his decision to reshuffle his cabinet shows his commitment to stability. Kishida took preemptive measures to root out any corruption that could derail the public's trust in his cabinet, and he is seeking to move the LDP beyond the Abe era. While the faction remains extremely important in the LDP, it's not immune from scrutiny, and the Prime Minister will put the interests of the public above all.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the Liberal Democratic Party will lose its status as the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by May 2043, according to the Metaculus prediction community.