Pro-establishment narrative

Upon announcing the joint venture in December of last year, the leaders of Italy, Japan, and the UK said that the sixth-generation fighter jet is built to match or surpass the finest airplanes now in use by nations like China, Russia, and possibly even that of the US. A new fighter is needed to preserve regional stability and defend democracy and the rules-based global order.

Establishment-critical narrative

"Advanced aircraft" are notorious for being black holes within the military-industrial complex when it comes to wasting taxpayer money. Take the enigmatic US F-35 boondoggle that racked up costs 80% over budget while being 10 years behind schedule. The biggest winners of these projects tend to be defense contractors — not democracies worldwide and certainly not citizens footing the bill.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 11.8% of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25% compared to 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump should be able to invoke presidential immunity, regardless of how long it took for his defense to raise the issue. This is a flawed ruling, and SCOTUS must correct this wrong. Luckily, SCOTUS has been asked to take up a similar question in Trump's federal criminal case in Washington, so we'll soon find out if this political witch hunt against a former president and future Republican nominee can continue.

Anti-Trump narrative

These are the legal ploys the twice-impeached, quadruple-indicted former president must enact to avoid accountability. Trump has committed so many crimes he can't possibly fight off all the charges. His current push to claim presidential immunity is not working out, and accountability is inevitable.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 55% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Artificial intelligence in financial services needs to be carefully implemented and supervised. It's wise for US regulatory agencies to have issued a warning and identified AI as a potential vulnerability. The financial system may suffer greatly if the application of advanced models is left unchecked — be it from bad actors or the obtuse complexities of the systems themselves. Consumers could pay a huge price.

Narrative B

AI technology has made tremendous improvements to the financial sector and has become essential in the battle against financial crime and fraud. It's an effective method for risk assessments that can assist banks in predicting loan defaults and stop insurers from overpaying claims. Overall, the benefits of AI in the financial sector greatly outweigh the risks.

Nerd narrative

There is a 34% chance that AI will be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is historic. Unfortunately, that Orbán vetoed the €50B Ukraine aid package against the rest of the EU proves yet again that the Hungarian nationalist leader is standing not on the side of democracy and freedom, but is committing blackmail aligned with the geostrategic goals of the Kremlin. The EU must not allow itself to be bullied by Orbán, who wants to prevent a democratic and Western-oriented Ukraine, as this would undermine his autocratic project.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's remarkable that the EU is opening accession negotiations with Kyiv and is putting together a huge aid package while withholding tens of billions from Hungary — which it did before in 2022. To cynically bribe Budapest's approval, only €10B was released, which Hungary is entitled to anyway, while Ukraine is to receive €50B. Hungary has the right to insist on the release of all funds to approve the Ukraine aid package. EU leaders should bear in mind that Hungary still has several options to block Ukraine's accession process and the road ahead could rightly be paved with Hungarian vetoes.

Nerd narrative

There is an 18% chance, that Hungary will leave the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While this deal has eased fears of war following weeks of Venezuelan aggression, it doesn't mean that Guyana will retreat from its position of sovereignty over Essequibo. The ICJ must provide a final ruling on the matter, and it is up to Venezuela and them alone to come to terms with the legal norms that continue to preside over global current affairs.

Establishment-critical narrative

Although the tense meeting has not produced an immediate end to tension, it was certainly a diplomatic breakthrough after repeated refusals by Guyanese officials to engage in direct dialogue with their Venezuelan counterparts and prospects of a US military intervention to help Guyana protect the interests of ExxonMobil. The ICJ has no jurisdiction over this matter, so a bilateral deal must be found.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that Venezuela will invade Guyana before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

As the US has worked hard to deter the power and influence of these Russian billionaires through sanctions, McGonigal chose the greedy route by enriching himself at the expense of American national security. It's a shame that a man with such a decorated career should find himself in this situation. No one is above the law, even FBI agents with storied careers.

Establishment-critical narrative

McGonigal hid his own corrupt ties to Russian oligarchs while launching the now-debunked Russia probe into an elected US president. During the two years the government was conducting its case against Trump, one of its top so-called investigators was getting rich doing exactly what he accused others of doing.

Pro-China narrative

Considering the economic pain Xu caused for the government and the Chinese people, this sentence is more than fair. After decades of thievery and another 20 years of hiding from justice, the government has finally put an end to this corrupt scheme and its perpetrators.

Anti-China narrative

Don't be fooled by Xi's faux egalitarianism. He isn't cracking down on successful businessmen due to their greed but rather due to their unwillingness to completely bow to his regime. He's investigated, sanctioned, or arrested dozens of executives — from the finance industry to the tech industry — to solidify Communist Party loyalty among the nation's elite.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that China will officially cease to be a socialist state by January 2097, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The FDA is working to establish the exact number of contamination cases and how they occurred as well as offer guidance for both current victims and future prevention mechanisms. Ecuadorian authorities have also helped strengthen this investigation. It's vital to clamp down on product tampering in the global supply chain which can have serious health consequences for consumers.

Establishment-critical narrative

Coming on the heels of last year's contaminated baby food crisis, this applesauce debacle is more proof of how porous America's health safety net is. To make things worse, before either of these stories broke, a 2019 report found that 95% of baby foods tested had heavy metals in them. This isn't a one-off story about a bad actor — the FDA needs to turn its many investigations into far more effective health and safety protocols.

Nerd narrative

There's a 32% chance that Soylent-like meal replacements will be labeled unhealthy before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Hamas seized upon the temporary pause to mark Israeli positions and prepare itself for continued attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. Indeed, the pace at which Israeli forces maneuvered in Gaza threw Hamas's military leadership off-kilter, and Israel will have to work intelligently in its campaign in the south of the strip to fully eliminate the terrorist group so it can never launch an attack like Oct. 7 again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Unfortunately, the temporary ceasefire only gave civilians a few days of relative rest, and now Israel has returned to killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate. The US, Israel's biggest ally, must exert more pressure to end the war.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by September 2067, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

In addition to being an issue of national sovereignty, the US southern border crisis is an issue of national security. While Democrats often smear calls for border security as xenophobic, Americans can now see with their own eyes the imminent and existential national security problems that come with a porous border. The US is a less safe place with an open border, and Democrats need to stop playing politics with Americans' safety.

Democratic narrative

Republicans are trying to politicize immigration at the southern border to score political points against Biden. While right-wing media says that Democrats favor open borders, the fact is that Democrats have for years proposed a common sense and humane approach to border security and immigration. The Biden administration is in fact considering revamping border policies — the GOP must not be disingenuous in order to forge a true bipartisan consensus.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that the US will deploy troops in Mexico without the Mexican government's cooperation before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.