Guyana and Venezuela agree not to threaten or use force against each other; Joint Ministerial Commission to be established
News Source GuyanaDec 15, 2023
Essequibo Dispute: Venezuela and Guyana Agree Not to Use Force
The Facts
Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro and Guyana's Pres. Irfaan Ali have reaffirmed their commitment to peace in the disputed oil-rich Essequibo region, agreeing to continue dialogue and not to use force to settle the controversy.
This comes as they met in the Caribbean island nation of St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Thursday in the presence of members of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), representatives of the Brazilian government, and UN observers.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
While this deal has eased fears of war following weeks of Venezuelan aggression, it doesn't mean that Guyana will retreat from its position of sovereignty over Essequibo. The ICJ must provide a final ruling on the matter, and it is up to Venezuela and them alone to come to terms with the legal norms that continue to preside over global current affairs.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although the tense meeting has not produced an immediate end to tension, it was certainly a diplomatic breakthrough after repeated refusals by Guyanese officials to engage in direct dialogue with their Venezuelan counterparts and prospects of a US military intervention to help Guyana protect the interests of ExxonMobil. The ICJ has no jurisdiction over this matter, so a bilateral deal must be found.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that Venezuela will invade Guyana before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.