Colorado Top Court Bars Trump From State's 2024 Ballot
The Supreme Court of Colorado on Tuesday disqualified former Pres. Donald Trump from running for office again in the state, ruling he had incited an insurrection and supported the US Capitol's siege in 2021.
The court applied Section 3 of the 14th Amendment in the ruling, which bars people who engage in insurrection after taking an oath to support the US Constitution, and ordered Trump's removal from Colorado's Republican primary ballot.
Democratic narrative
The following 16 days will be a real rollercoaster for the American political landscape. The narrow way out given to Donald Trump by the Denver court has been sealed until SCOTUS comes to a decision. Keeping the US president out of the ambit of the 14th Amendment/insurrection clause defies logic — Trump was caught red-handed, and he cannot be allowed a route back to office.
Pro-Trump narrative
In a way, this temporary setback will only boost Donald Trump's popularity among voters. If it did find against him, contrary to a previous ruling, the sheer partisanship of the Colorado Supreme Court would be put out there for everyone to see. Since there's no way Trump can be defeated in the polls, the system is now trying to block him down by other means. Americans are pinning their hopes on the Supreme Court to come to the right decision and allow Trump to run.
Nerd narrative
There's a 47% chance if the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, that Trump will win, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
France: Parliament Adopts Controversial Immigration Law
The French parliament adopted a controversial new immigration bill backed by President Emmanuel Macron by a large majority late on Tuesday, despite major opposition in his party due to the law's support from the far right. The law previously passed the upper-house Senate.
The tightened immigration bill passed the National Assembly, the lower house, with the votes of the ruling centrist coalition and the conservatives, with 349 in favor and 186 against, meaning that it did not need the support of Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) to pass through.
Narrative A
The amended bill is the most regressive immigration reform in 40 years and a slap in the face for migrants who have been living in France for decades. The bill could only be pushed through without the support of the far right because the governing coalition bowed to their key demands to save Macron's flagship project. With this discriminatory law, Macron is betraying France's liberal values, while Le Pen enjoys a major victory. Macron came into office promising to keep the radical right in check, but rather than weakening Le Pen, he is paving the way for her and maneuvering France into a new political crisis.
Narrative B
The law is a balanced compromise with which the Macron government proved its ability to act in a difficult situation. What weakens the radical right the most is a government that faces up to present-day challenges and does not hesitate to take necessary measures in France's national interest. All the critics of the bill seem to ignore the fact that the government is the democratic representation of the people and that the French have spoken out in favor of tightening immigration laws. For Macron's government, the focus is on solutions, not on Le Pen's tactical maneuvers.
Nerd narrative
There's a 14% chance that Macron will dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
France Jails Former Doctor in Rwandan Genocide Trial
A former physician who participated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide was sentenced to 24 years in prison by France. On Wednesday, Sosthene Munyemana, a 68-year-old former gynecologist, was convicted of crimes against humanity and for his role in the plot to plan these crimes.
Following 100 days of mass killings in 1994 — which resulted in an estimated 800K deaths among Tutsis and moderate Hutus — Munyemana is the sixth person to go on trial in France.
Pro-establishment narrative
In the past few years, France has stepped up efforts to apprehend and prosecute genocide suspects. This is the sixth case about the genocide in Rwanda that is making its way through the legal system in Paris, however, since the genocide took place thirty years ago and firsthand accounts are getting harder to come by, it's getting harder and harder to prosecute the alleged perpetrators of the crime. The victims of this horrible murder have been able to seek justice and accountability because of collective efforts and a "universal jurisdiction," which permits France to try major human rights crimes committed outside the nation under specific circumstances.
Establishment-critical narrative
When it comes to prosecuting those who are accused of committing the genocide in Rwanda, France's "universal jurisdiction" has some serious problems. The genocide occurred far away and was three decades ago. Over time, the evidence has deteriorated and there are a plethora of problems including the challenges of credible witness testimony after such a long time. It's not reasonable to believe that the Paris Assize Court has the right tools for delivering fair sentences. Sadly there are deep systemic problems in the global system allowing for the swift and effective prosecution of perpetrators of genocide.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that an East African Federation will exist and govern before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Russia Advances in 4 Parts of Ukraine
Russian forces in Ukraine advanced in at least four areas of the frontline, according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW, a US military-affiliated think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the war, said on Tuesday that over the past day of fighting, Russia made confirmed gains near the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, as well as near the cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka in Donetsk. Russia also made a confirmed advance southwest of Donetsk City.
Pro-Russia narrative
There will be peace in Ukraine when Russia achieves its objectives. Those objectives remain unchanged from the start of the special military operation — those being the denazification of Ukraine, its demilitarization, as well as the guaranteeing of the country's neutral status.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Despite the setbacks for Ukraine, Kyiv is still confident that it can achieve military victory. Ukraine is also confident it will receive the weapons it needs from the US and the West early next year. While Putin is no closer to achieving his goals, Ukraine is now closer on the path to EU integration.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Agrees to Major Deal to Reform Migration System
According to a statement from the EU's Spanish presidency on Wednesday, the EU has reached a deal to overhaul its migration system that will include faster vetting of irregular arrivals, developing border detention centers, accelerating deportation for rejected asylum applicants, and taking pressure off of southern countries experiencing higher numbers of migrants.
Under the proposal, which must now be passed by all individual EU member states and the European Parliament (EP), non-border countries will be required to accept 30K migrants or pay €20K ($21,870) per person into an EU fund.
Pro-establishment narrative
This bill is a historic show of international solidarity. As nations throughout the continent struggle to absorb mass numbers of migrants without proper time or resources, this bill will provide the necessary digital screening and physical infrastructure needed to lessen the burden on countries that typically receive migrants first. Once implemented, this law will help Europe take in deserving migrants humanely and effectively while keeping out bad actors like human smugglers.
Establishment-critical narrative
This law is far from humane and is instead a codified violation of human rights. With individual countries now allowed to reject asylum claimants due to arbitrary definitions of "mass" migration, EU states will begin to shuffle vulnerable human beings across the continent like pieces on a chess board. Countries will also be able to decide whether someone is a real asylum seeker or part of a smuggling ring, therefore delegitimizing the asylum status of people fleeing persecution. This is wrong on every front and should be overturned before people get hurt.
Cynical narrative
European elites are only talking about mass migration now because the public has finally spoken out against it and elections are coming up. After millions of undocumented migrants entered Europe over the past two decades, EU member states are waking up to the fact that they have no national sovereignty or control over their borders. This has affected the politics, culture, and safety of individual states, from sexual assaults in Germany to knife attacks against children in Ireland. Europeans are tired of the patronizing top-down approach to this issue.
Hamas Leader Arrives in Egypt to Discuss Potential Hostage Deal
Qatar-based Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh traveled to Egypt on Wednesday in a rare diplomatic intervention amid intensive talks on a new ceasefire to let aid reach Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Yet, Israel and Hamas have publicly stated irreconcilable positions on any halt to fighting.
This visit comes after Israel proposed a weeklong pause in fighting in exchange for the release of 40 hostages, including women, elderly, and those in need of urgent care, but an Israeli official has cautioned that the two sides were not "near a final deal at the moment," as Hamas hopes for a permanent cease-fire.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though, of course, Israel has a right to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities, it must wage this war in a humane way. The amount of civilians being killed will only galvanize Palestinians against peace and push them into the arms of Hamas. A more thorough and surgical campaign is now needed to eliminate Hamas's leadership in Gaza, as Israel is losing global support.
Pro-Israel narrative
This has indeed been a tragic war but Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Though it seems that the Biden admin. wants to pressure Israel into a cease-fire, Israel must push back against such short-sighted thinking. As a sovereign country, Israel has the right to defend itself from terrorism and pursue its own interests. Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated so that the group can never launch a terrorist attack like Oct. 7 again.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to depopulate the Gaza Strip. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Nerd narrative
There's a 57% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DR Congo Election Begins Amid Delays, Logistics Issues
After a nearly three-hour delay, some 44M voters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) headed to the polls to cast their ballots in the presidential election on Wednesday. Issues that have arisen include people not seeing their names on voting lists and smudged ink on voting cards, making them illegible and resulting in their votes being discarded.
In the city of Bunia, located in the country's violence-plagued eastern region, security forces reportedly fired warning shots after a voting station was vandalized and kits were destroyed amid protests by displaced citizens who want to vote in their hometowns. Authorities sought extra helicopters to open polling stations in areas lacking good roads or security.
Narrative A
Pres. Tshisekedi has not only done well for himself given the geopolitical and economic circumstances of the DRC, but he's done so as an underdog. While things certainly aren't perfect right now, Tshisekedi could win this election and build upon his successful accession into the East African Community and post-pandemic economic growth.
Narrative B
The Congolese people shouldn't accept any election outcome if these widespread irregularities aren't fixed. Given the fact that the 2018 election was not fully accepted, 2023 should be one where every vote is counted and the voting process is tightly monitored. If it takes more time to ensure election integrity, then so be it.
US Sanctions Network for Allegedly Supporting Iran's Drone Program
The US Dept. of the Treasury issued fresh sanctions Tuesday against a foreign procurement network that has allegedly evaded trade restrictions to supply Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force Self-Sufficiency Organization with sensitive equipment used to build unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
This third package of sanctions on the production of Shahed-series suicide drones targets 10 entities and four individuals located in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, and Malaysia — blocking their access to assets within the US and preventing them from doing business with US citizens and financial institutions.
Pro-establishment narrative
These sanctions are much needed to halt the nefarious Iran's drone program, which poses a threat not only to regional security but also to international peace. Without such measures to enforce existing restrictions to prevent Iran from accessing dual-use technology, Tehran will be able to continue ramping up its drone production and supply Russia and other of its allies with drones to use in conflict zones.
Establishment-critical narrative
Military cooperation between amicable countries, such as Russia and Iran, is both a legitimate and effective strategy for ensuring regional security and economic growth. The West continues to use Ukraine as a propaganda tool to demonize Iran-Russia ties as a threat to global peace, but such accusations are baseless attempts to distort the reality of friends on the international stage. Western hysteria over Iran's drone program is a prominent example of this.
Nerd narrative
There's an 8% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rite Aid Pharmacy Banned From Using AI Facial Recognition
The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Tuesday prohibited Rite Aid from using artificial intelligence-based facial recognition technology for five years in an agreement that settles charges that the bankrupt pharmacy chain's AI technology harmed consumers.
Rite Aid reportedly used facial recognition technology for surveillance purposes, but the FTC claims that the system misidentified thousands of customers as potential shoplifters, disproportionately affecting non-White shoppers.
Progressive narrative
Rite Aid’s settlement is yet another example of how AI is riddled with structural racism, just like society at large is. Rite Aid’s facial recognition software produced thousands of false positives, mostly by misidentifying people of color, putting marginalized groups at further risk. This issue isn't exclusive to the pharmacy, as countless studies show that AI has a racial bias and is discriminatory. AI needs an overhaul to prevent such practices before it can be a prominent part of society.
Conservative narrative
While AI may be a novel development that brings new issues to the forefront, it can't escape America’s favorite pastime complaining about racism. Despite racism being legally and morally weeded out of the West, the mainstream media loves to play up any instance of perceived bias. The left has been brainwashed into thinking that group differences don’t exist and that any unequal outcomes are purely caused by social factors. AI doesn’t buy this woke falsehood yet, which is why it's falsely dubbed “racist.”
US Releases Maduro Ally in Prisoner Swap With Venezuela
In a prisoner swap with Venezuela, the US released a close ally of Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro, Alex Saab, in exchange for 10 Americans who were imprisoned in the South American country.
The deal also saw the Biden Administration secure the extradition of Leonard Francis, a wanted defense contractor better known as “Fat Leonard,” who is at the heart of a major Pentagon bribery scandal.
Republican narrative
Biden’s administration continues to show its weakness as it bends the knee to another foreign dictator. The authoritarian Maduro regime has already shown that it has no respect for Biden’s government as it continues to win concessions from the US. Echoing last year's disastrous deal to send one of Russia’s most lethal arms dealers back to Moscow, this latest deal makes it clear that foreign dictators can hold Biden's government hostage by arresting Americans.
Democratic narrative
The White House secured a massive victory in its swap with Venezuela and was able to bring home US citizens who were trapped in the South American country. While some may criticize Biden for returning close Maduro ally Alex Saab, the fact is that the president has an obligation to his citizens. If swapping one Venezuelan prisoner allows 10 Americans to be freed, that’s definitely a worthwhile exchange.