21 December 2023

Daily Newsletter

Russia: Anti-War Candidate Applies to Run in Election

The Facts

  • Former TV journalist Ekaterina Duntsova formally applied on Wednesday to run in the Russian presidential elections in March to challenge incumbent President Vladimir Putin, who is standing for re-election.

  • The regional lawmaker submitted the necessary documents to Russia's Central Election Commission to officially register for the 2024 presidential elections. If accepted as an independent candidate, she still faces the challenge of collecting 300K unique voter signatures from at least 40 Russian regions.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

That the former local lawmaker and mother of three dares to run as an independent candidate against Kremlin ruler Putin is a sign of hope for Russia. It is outrageous to call Duntsova a Kremlin tool just because she's running as an independent candidate and is not part of the political establishment. With her call for peace in Ukraine and for a democratic and peaceful Russia, she represents the hopes of many Russians and the West. Even if her chances of winning are bleak, she at least reassures ordinary Rus

Establishment-critical narrative

The Western press applauds Duntsova, just as it celebrates every candidate, no matter how insignificant, who aims to remove Putin as president. Calling for peace in Ukraine and criticizing the Kremlin reveals her naivety, for it wasn't Moscow that laid the groundwork for the conflict. There's still only one guarantor of a sovereign and prosperous Russia, and that is Vladimir Putin. The Russians are well aware of this, as evidenced by his high poll ratings. The fact that Duntsova intends to run is important

Nerd narrative


There is a 21% chance, that the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Ukraine: Defense Minister Seeks to Conscript Ukrainians Living Abroad

The Facts

  • Military-aged Ukrainian men living abroad should return home and report to military enlistment centers or face potential repercussions, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told German media on Thursday. The comments come after earlier in the week, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy described it as a "sensitive issue," but said that Ukraine would need to mobilize an additional 450-500K people into the military next year.

  • The Ukrainian leader has tasked Umerov and other military officials with formulating the plan for mobilizing such a high number of civilians. Zelenskyy also insisted that the plans included provisions for the rotation and demobilization of troops that had been fighting for almost two years.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Most Ukrainians stayed to protect their homelands and voluntarily took up arms to fight the Russians. However, a minority of people illegally left the country and shirked their responsibilities. Ukraine is now calling on them to do the honorable thing and return for the defense of their country against an existential threat. If they don't do so voluntarily, the state will have to enact certain measures.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's easy to sound noble and heroic — until one faces the harsh realities of war. Why should Ukrainian men sacrifice their lives and face a near-certain fate of death in fighting Russia, particularly when many are the sole breadwinners and providers for their families? It's vital to empathize with people who must make painful personal decisions about the perils of this conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Study: Explicit Photos of Children Being Used to Train AI

Photo: Unsplash

The Facts

  • A study from the Stanford Internet Observatory (SIO) has found over 3.2K images of suspected child sexual abuse in the artificial intelligence (AI) database LAION, which is used to train the leading AI image generator, Stable Diffusion. The photos have reportedly been used to create realistic images of fake children and even transform pictures of fully clothed real teens into nude photos.

  • The study's findings counter previous claims that AI software creates child sex abuse imagery only by merging adult pornography with photos of real children. According to the study's authors, "having possession of a LAION‐5B data set populated even in late 2023 implies the possession of thousands of illegal images."


The Spin

Narrative A

While there is a long way to go, AI companies, including Stability AI, are working with governments and law enforcement across the world to rid the internet of harmful child abuse imagery. As AI grows in use and capability, the companies behind the technology have the tools and the ambition to keep their products safe while also offering their positive qualities for the public to use appropriately.

Narrative B

While private tech giants like Meta, OpenAI, and Google claim they've steered clear of Stability AI and its child abuse-plagued datasets, the fact is that LAION is an open-source software that allowed the public to catch flaws in its system. If the amount of child abuse found in LAION disturbs you, just imagine what's behind the closed-door datasets of these private companies.

Narrative C

This is just one example of the danger posed by the current AI race. AI products like the LAION dataset are being rushed to market in an attempt to fend off the competition, and the result in this case is that an internet-wide scrape of images was open-sourced without due diligence. This is just the tip of the iceberg unless more is done to regulate AI and cool down the race.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the creation of a humanoid robot that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans will occur by September 2058, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UN Urges Australia to Reduce Prisoners on Remand

The Facts

  • Following a terminated visit to Australia in October 2022, the UN's Subcommittee on Prevention and Torture (UNSPT) has released a report claiming that the nation's prisons fail to adhere to the Optional Protocol to the Convention Against Torture (OPCAT) — a treaty Canberra ratified in 2017.

  • An inspection of Australian prisons last year was suspended after UN officials were reportedly denied complete access to imprisonment and detention facilities in the states of New South Wales and Queensland.


The Spin

Narrative A

Finally released after much anticipation, the UN's report is a scathing one for Australia's penal system. The federal government continues to deny responsibility for the continuation of torture and malpractice within several Australian states. The country must once again become compliant with its international obligations and end systemic mistreatment within its prisons.

Narrative B

For Australia to see long-term success, the country's immigration problem must be fixed, as it places undue stress on Australia's already overwhelmed correctional system. While Canberra should undoubtedly strive to meet the committee's recommendations, it must be careful not to overcorrect its failures by becoming too lax and unmethodically releasing dangerous criminals, as it has done since last month's ruling on indefinite detention.

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Report: Xi Told Biden That China Plans to Reunify Taiwan

The Facts

  • NBC News reported on Wednesday that China's Xi Jinping allegedly warned Pres. Joe Biden assertively that Beijing intends to take Taiwan — preferably in a peaceful manner — as they met last month during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

  • According to the two current and one former US official briefed on the meeting who spoke to the outlet, the Chinese leader further told Biden that US intelligence claims that he plans to reunify the island with mainland China in 2025 or 2027 are wrong, as no time frame has been set yet.


The Spin

Republican narrative

It turns out that the alleged "constructive and productive discussions" between China's strongman and Joe Biden in San Francisco weren't as reasonable as the White House had sought to describe. Actually, Xi Jinping threatened to invade Taiwan to complete his goal to annex the island on American soil and right in the face of the US president. Biden's foreign policy weakness is on full display.

Democratic narrative

Though China hawks have irresponsibly claimed that Xi's reported statement would amount to a declaration of war, the PRC leader has, in fact, lowered tensions as he asserted to Biden that Beijing has no plans to change the status quo of Taiwan anytime soon. China's willingness to reunify with Taiwan isn't something new at all — and this policy has underwritten decades of peace and regional stability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 47% chance that the People's Republic of China will annex at least half of Taiwan before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Prague: 24 Fatalities in University Shooting

The Facts

  • Fourteen people were killed and more than 25 were injured by a lone gunman at a university in Prague on Thursday, in the worst mass shooting in the history of the Czech Republic.

  • The shooting took place at Charles University where the suspect, identified by local media as David Kozak, was a student. Authorities say that the gunman has been "eliminated."


The Spin

Narrative A

The Czech Republic has some of the most liberal gun laws in all of Europe, with nearly 3% of the country owning firearms. The suspect legally owned the weapons he used in this shooting. Clearly, laws must change to ensure a tragedy like this never happens again.

Narrative B

Gun crime is relatively rare in the Czech Republic. In order to obtain a gun permit, Czech citizens must pass a test, undergo a medical observation, and have no criminal record. Authorities were unaware that the shooter intended to harm others and if they did, he would not have been able to obtain his firearms. This incident is a horrific tragedy within an overall well-regulated system.

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Judge Temporarily Blocks California Firearms Law

The Facts

  • US District Judge Cormac Carney on Wednesday granted a preliminary injunction to block a California law that would ban carrying firearms in most public places.

  • In his decision, Carney wrote the law is "sweeping, repugnant to the Second Amendment, and openly defiant of the Supreme Court."


The Spin

Right narrative

Democrats are constantly trying to find ways around laws they don't like — even if that means writing new, unconstitutional laws. The Supreme Court in its Bruen decision set the standard gun laws have to meet to withstand a challenge, yet California still came out with a law that has a ludicrous amount of places lawful citizens can't carry their guns. Democrats seem to get a kick out of stifling freedom.

Democratic narrative

By every measure, polling shows overwhelming, bipartisan support among voters for limits on the types of guns that can be sold, who can possess a gun and where, and how one can purchase a gun. But because gun control doesn't influence who citizens vote for, Republicans ignore the desires of the electorate and continue to allow guns to proliferate and make the country less safe.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.40 small firearms per capita in the USA by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount in Early Merger Talks

The Facts

  • Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount are reportedly in talks over a potential merger. According to Axios, CEOs David Zaslav of Warner and Bob Bakish of Paramount discussed merging the combined $38B market value of their companies during lunch in New York this week.

  • Zaslav reportedly also spoke with Shari Redstone, the head of Paramount's parent company, National Amusements, but it's unknown whether Warner would buy either if a merger took place. The two CEOs are believed to have discussed how they could work together to compete with industry giants like Netflix and Disney+.


The Spin

Narrative A

The entertainment industry is unashamedly pursuing merger after merger, even despite the recent Hollywood writers' strike and the Biden administration's legal battles. As the government fails to block both horizontal and vertical mergers, the industry has become more emboldened to narrow the TV and movie playing field. After the strike, everyone predicted such moves would occur — Warner Bros. and Paramount are proving that true.

Narrative B

From a consumer and anti-trust standpoint, this merger may actually be a good thing. While the government will certainly be watching these talks play out, it's important to note that Netflix and Disney+ are both much bigger than Paramount+ and Max — if they were to merge, there would be a more suitable competitor thrown into the mix. The combined debt of Warner Bros. and Paramount would also be an issue, but more subscriptions from their respective sports streaming assets could also bring in more cash.

See sources

Report: Meta Accused of Censoring Pro-Palestinian Accounts

The Facts

  • International NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) has claimed that social media giant Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, has been systematically censoring pro-Palestinian accounts in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the ensuing conflict in Gaza.

  • According to a report published on Wednesday, Meta has allegedly either taken down or suppressed over 1K posts from Palestinians and their supporters involving peaceful content in favor of Palestine on its main platforms between October and November.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Horrific antisemitism on social media skyrocketed after Hamas' catastrophic attack on Oct. 7, as anti-Israel and pro-Hamas accounts flooded platforms with propaganda and fake images. Social media platforms have a duty to prevent toxic hate speech and disinformation, especially during the fog of war in a volatile conflict. This war is difficult for everyone, but social media platforms cannot make the problem worse by spreading lies and dangerous content — a mindful approach to content moderation is required.

Establishment-critical narrative

In an ever-worsening humanitarian cataclysm in Gaza, Meta has been silencing the voices of people who wish to spread the truth about the conflict. These voices claimed that Palestinian suffering was disproportionately represented in the media, and their social media posts are vital documentation for the historical record. Meta's deletion of these 1K posts is reckless and it's causing pain and suffering for end users.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Meta Platforms will sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Italy's Ruling Party Proposes Bill to Protect School Nativity Scenes

The Facts

  • Italy’s ruling Brothers of Italy (FdI) party introduced a bill to the Senate on Wednesday that would safeguard Christian traditions, such as displays of nativity scenes and Christmas plays at schools.

  • The legislation would prevent schools from banning the Nativity scene depicting the birth of Jesus Christ and impose disciplinary sanctions on school officials who seek to eliminate Christian celebrations of Christmas or Easter.


The Spin

Right narrative

Meloni and the FdI understand that the Italian people are linked by a shared faith and origin that must be maintained, as some leftists attempt to remove Christianity from society. The Italian government has a duty to stick up for Italian culture and interests, and Christmas and Easter are Christian celebrations — they must be respected as such.

Left narrative

While religion should undoubtedly be respected, it shouldn't be imposed on students, and that's exactly what this bill — which ignores the fact that Italy is officially a secular country — would do. If this wasn’t enough, Meloni tries to prop up Christianity while turning her back on migrants seeking a better life. Italy’s right wing seemingly only cares about dividing and playing politics.

See sources

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