Pro-establishment narrative

El Reda has been a key component of Hezbollah's, and thus Iran's, evil terrorist agenda for decades, and authorities across the globe haven't forgotten what he's capable of and responsible for. He killed dozens of Jews in Argentina, blew up explosive caches in Thailand, and spied on US and Israeli personnel in Panama. Though it's been some time since he began his terrorist career, the US knows who he is and what he's done, and is now pursuing him legally to bring some justice for those affected by his horrific crimes.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the US and its allies have long used this bombing as a precedent to demonize and sanction Iran, US diplomats and Argentine police officers involved in the immediate investigation later acknowledged that there was never any evidence linking Tehran. In 2014, a former Argentine spy who had infiltrated the Jewish community claimed that the anti-Semitic police department ordered him to hand over the blueprints to the facility, which suggests this could have been an inside job that was later used by the US and Israel to stoke anti-Iran sentiment for political reasons.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The British government is robbing families of their ability to obtain justice. Thousands of people were murdered and "disappeared" during The Troubles, and these families deserve the option to have their day in court. Perpetrators shouldn't be shielded from being held accountable for the serious human rights abuses they committed.

Narrative B

The Legacy and Reconciliation Bill is the best way to provide justice and move forward. Prosecutions for Troubles' era crimes have been largely ineffective, but through a new truth and reconciliation commission, families can receive more information, accountability, and acknowledgment. This legislation is far from perfect, but the conflict is over, and it's time to move forward.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that Northern Ireland will hold a reunification referendum before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

By resuming high-level military talks with China, the US is yet again demonstrating its goodwill to bring relations with Beijing back on track. However, given recent threats to the US military in the Indo-Pacific and Beijing's attempts to intimidate US allies like the Philippines — not to mention Taiwan — this can only be a first step. The US and the PRC are competitors, but Washington is convinced that dialog constitutes the basis for peace and international security. It's now up to China to prove that it's serious about reducing bilateral tensions and engaging in constructive dialog.

Establishment-critical narrative

China welcomes the resumption of military high-level talks between the two nations and is willing to engage in a constructive dialog with the US based on mutual respect. However, Washington can't assert hegemonic claims while pretending to be interested in reducing bilateral tensions. As long as the US isn't prepared to respect China's territorial sovereignty over Taiwan and its maritime rights in the South China Sea, no constructive dialog will be possible. Washington can't have it both ways and must walk the talk to build healthy relations with China, contributing to international security.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that the US and China will be at war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

If the ongoing peace talks with the Houthi group in Yemen result in an end to the eight-year-old brutal conflict, then easing limitations on arms sales to Saudi Arabia could be a good thing. The geopolitical landscape would change with a peace deal, emphasizing the need to arm Saudi Arabia with weapons to protect itself against Iran, which is a rising regional power. As Saudi Arabia needs to re-arm itself along its southern border to be able to defend itself in the event that there are any future disputes with Houthis, it would also demonstrate to the kingdom that the US is a reliable strategic ally.

Establishment-critical narrative

President Biden pledged that human rights would be given first priority in US relations with Saudi Arabia. Human Rights Watch and other rights groups have recorded war crimes committed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Yemeni civilians since the start of the conflict in 2015. Removing the ban on offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia would be a step backward for the White House and a declaration to the international community that the US is not very concerned about human rights. Rather than easing sanctions, the Biden administration should push for the creation of an accountability body in the UN that would look into infractions and assist with any future prosecutions.

Nerd narrative

There is a 36% chance that Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

The impact of the slowdown of Western arms to Ukraine is already being felt on the battlefield and observed in Ukraine's ability to defend itself from Russia's aerial attacks. While military aid is tied up in US Congress, Europe needs to step up and give Ukraine all the weapons it needs — not just enough to survive, but enough to put Russian Pres. Putin on the back foot and force him into negotiations.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks, as well as the mistaken belief — being propped up by Western administrations — that the country can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1.5% chance that Russia will annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Argentina's radical libertarian president is acting as if he were an absolute monarch, unlawfully using the emergency decree to bypass Congress and attack the rights of the working-class people. Ordinary citizens are finally waking up to their mistake in supporting his radical austerity platform in the elections.

Right narrative

Argentines have given Milei a clear mandate to liberalize the economy and cut the country's out-of-control public expenditure, and this is exactly what he's done. Yet, the very Peronists responsible for Argentina's economic crisis are now trying to create chaos not to allow his administration to get rid of the parasitic state so they can blame liberalism for their own failures.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Argentina fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Even while defending himself against charges of trying to dismantle democracy, Trump is looking for ways to break the system. Trump’s strategy is clearly to delay this trial until he can possibly return to the White House and crush this case, and the special counsel was well within his powers to ask SCOTUS to expedite a judgment. SCOTUS should have done the right thing and ruled promptly.

Pro-Trump narrative

Smith should stop hiding behind the notion of protecting democracy, and admit his shady case is political persecution by the Biden administration. In his briefs, Smith never gave a valid reason for expediting this review. But it’s obvious the goal was to derail Trump’s return to the White House by tarnishing his good name — possibly getting a conviction before the 2024 election cycle kicks into high gear.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 55% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

This case was an extension of the many political assaults on Trump and his associates, and If it wasn’t for this destructive judgment, Giuliani would be quite comfortable financially. The former Trump lawyer had to make this filing in order to protect himself and those he owes more reasonable sums of money after the biased judge allowed the plaintiffs to immediately go after Giuliani’s assets.

Anti-Trump narrative

Unfortunately for Giuliani, he’s just the latest in a long line of people who’ve fought on Trump’s behalf and come out the other end with their reputations and lives in shambles. Once beloved by a large swath of the US, Giuliani lied and defamed people on Trump’s behalf, and Trump left his lawyer high and dry financially and politically.

Democratic narrative

Biden is righting not only the wrongs of America's past but of laws that he himself helped pass decades ago. The president now understands what the American people have long understood Black and Brown people face disproportionately more convictions and longer sentences than their White counterparts. Hopefully, this is the beginning of the end of a system that ruins the lives and career prospects of people who were put away for harmless infractions.

Republican narrative

While prison reform for nonviolent offenses can certainly be debated, this issue shouldn't be about racism. The real data show that the rate of marijuana dependency — a phenomenon discussed by Black intellectuals as far back as W.E.B. Du Bois and Richard Wright — is far higher among Black people than White people. Regarding people in prison today, most of those convicted of so-called nonviolent drug offenses actually pled down from more serious crimes like trafficking or other felonies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that marijuana will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though, of course, Israel has a right to dismantle Hamas' military capabilities, it must wage this war in a humane way. The amount of civilians being killed will only galvanize Palestinians against peace and push them into the arms of Hamas. A more thorough and surgical campaign is now needed to eliminate Hamas's leadership in Gaza, as Israel is losing global support.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Though it seems that the Biden admin. wants to pressure Israel into a ceasefire, Israel must push back against such short-sighted thinking. Israel is a sovereign country and has the right to defend itself from terrorism and pursue its own interests. Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated so that the group can never launch a terrorist attack like Oct. 7 again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Nerd narrative

There's a 35% chance that at least 500,000 Palestinians will be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.