China Sanctions US Firm Over Xinjiang Research
China on Tuesday announced the imposition of sanctions on Los Angeles-based data firm Kharon for providing evidence on alleged forced labor in Xinjiang. The move came after the US put curbs on three Chinese firms earlier this month, after Kharon claimed they forcefully deployed thousands of laborers in 2017.
Denying its involvement in any labor abuse, China stated that sanctions under its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law will also target two US analysts: Edmund Xu of Kharon, and Nicole Morgret of the US-China Economic And Security Review Commission.
Pro-China narrative
Over the years, the US has conjured up vivid fantasies of human rights abuses by China. Based on this sophistry, it has sought to interfere in domestic Chinese matters. All this has been done in violation of international law, with the intent of tarring China's image. The US's private sector has been hand-in-glove in this stratagem and China will not take it lying down.
Anti-China narrative
China can sabre-rattle all it wants, but it is well-established that Xinjiang is the backdrop to mass abuse. "Re-education" has, over the years, upended the lives of millions of Muslim Uyghur people who have been herded into correctional camps. These Turkic-speaking minorities have been subjected to untold miseries. It is well within international norms for the US and its companies to expose these practices, and consequently curb them.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance of the UN intervening on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps by 2024, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.
Migrant Caravan Advances North as US Officials Hold Talks in Mexico
The head of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and other US officials met with Mexican Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Wednesday to discuss migration as thousands of migrants move north in a caravan through the southern Mexican state of Chiapas in an attempt to reach the US border.
The meeting follows a phone conversation between US Pres. Joe Biden and López Obrador last week in which they both expressed the need for increased enforcement at their shared border.
Democratic narrative
Mexico must do its part to halt the unprecedented surge at the US border, as the current state of migration is making conditions at the southern border untenable. Biden has rightly requested his Mexican counterpart to take further enforcement action and is attempting to get regional governments to assist with the migration flow. In the face of counterproductive GOP policies — such as Texas shipping off migrants to other cities — Biden is trying to respect human rights while simultaneously addressing the influx of migrants.
Republican narrative
Biden is to blame for the border crisis. He has to take the initiative to secure the border and stop the unprecedented wave of illegal immigration. The Biden administration should end the policy that permits Customs and Border Protection to release migrants without court dates, restrict parole, which permits the president to temporarily admit some migrants, and pursue agreements with third countries, such as Canada, to take in asylum seekers. In addition, the president should turn back or detain all aliens encountered between ports of entry.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 9.1% of the US population will live in Texas in the next census, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ukraine: Government Introduces Bill to Mobilize 500K New Troops
Following remarks from Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier in the month, in which he stated that the military will need to mobilize an additional 450–500K troops next year, Ukraine's government has this week submitted a draft law to achieve the aim.
The proposed law — bill 10378 — makes widespread changes to mobilization eligibility, including lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. It also includes measures to send electronic summonses and to strenghten restrictions on those who try to avoid service. The government's website crashed, becoming temporarily unavailable, as a result of so many Ukrainians attempting to access the proposals.
Pro-establishment narrative
These are sensitive proposals which effect the lives of nearly every Ukrainian. It is only right that they are openly discussed in public so that everyone can understand the motivations behind the decision making. These are necessary changes to put Ukraine in a stronger position to win the war in the coming year.
Establishment-critical narrative
The West's collective failure in seeking to expand NATO eastwards to Russia's borders started this war, which has resulted in Ukraine losing vast swaths of territory, as well as untold numbers of men and women. Rather than continue prolonging this devastation, Ukraine needs to push for peace.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: 382 Children Under 7 Sent to Trans Clinic
According to data gathered by the Daily Mail, 382 children under seven were referred to the UK's Gender Identity Development Service (GIDS) between 2012 and 2018, including 61 four-year-olds, 140 five-year-olds, and 169 six-year-olds. Run by the Tavistock and Portman NHS Foundation Trust, GIDS was shut down in 2022 after an independent review found it "not safe" for children.
Data from the trust also shows that the number of children it saw rose from 136 in 2010–11 to 3,585 in 2021–22. The trust said that no three-year-olds would have received "treatment," adding that staff would typically have "one-off" conversations with parents or caretakers to give support or advice.
Right narrative
This is more evidence that the UK health system was under the dangerous spell of trans activism. As countries like the US continue to promote dangerous medical procedures for minors in the name of trans rights, Britain has taken action to prevent any more children from being placed in these centers. Whatever the age, children need time to grow before medically — and permanently — altering their bodies.
Left narrative
The story of Tavistock is indeed tragic, but it has nothing to do with the reality of transgenderism and more to do with a faulty healthcare system. The clinic was largely run by junior staff, who, in the face of an unprecedented rise in patients, had only enough time and resources to prescribe medical intervention rather than therapy. The UK must not allow mistakes of the past to deprive the very real needs of the nation's transgender community.
Turkey Hits 71 Targets in Iraq and Syria
Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said in a message posted to X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday that at least 59 Kurdish fighters had been "neutralized" in airstrikes at 71 sites allegedly linked to Kurdish groups in Syria and northern Iraq following the deaths of 12 Turkish soldiers in Northern Iraq.
Six Turkish soldiers were reportedly killed on Friday when militants affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) attempted to infiltrate a Turkish military base in northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Six more Turkish soldiers were killed the following day in additional clashes with the PKK.
Narrative A
The deaths of the 12 Turkish soldiers are tragic and only serve to further strengthen Ankara's resolve. Turkey is committed to eradicating the terrorist threat within and beyond its borders.
Narrative B
Civilians are being killed and wounded in this clash between the Turkish military and the PKK. Turkey is intentionally targeting civilian vital infrastructure in Syria, and risks destabilizing the region even further. These airstrikes must stop.
Former European Commission Pres. Jacques Delors Dead at 98
Jacques Delors, former European Commission (EC) president considered a founding father of the modern European Union (EU), passed away on Wednesday at age 98, according to a statement released by his family.
After serving as a finance minister under French Pres. Francois Mitterrand from 1981 to 1984, he served for ten years as head of the EU's European Commission from 1985 to 1995, making major strides to further European integration.
Narrative A
From the free movement of goods, people, and a common currency, Jacques Delors forged a new Europe based on the principles of cooperation, democracy, and liberty. His life's work has made Europe a more secure, prosperous place, and serves as an example of what a united Europe is capable of accomplishing. In the aftermath of Brexit, the migrant crisis, and the War in Ukraine, European leaders could learn much from Delors's singular vision and exemplary leadership.
Narrative B
Delors was the architect of a doomed European project, and much of what ails the Union can be traced back to policies that he championed. Delors promoted a sprawling, centralized, federal EU that has seemingly failed to rise to any of the most pressing challenges facing the continent. Sadly, he lived to see his life's work tarnished by ineffective governance and a rise in nationalism across Europe, as what little enthusiasm for European integration remains slowly fizzles out.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance the EU will have at least 31 member states by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
S.Korea Sanctions 8 N.Koreans Over Illicit Weapons, Cyber Activities
Following North Korea's test of a solid fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-class Hwasong-18 last week, South Korea's Foreign Ministry announced Wednesday it had sanctioned eight North Korean nationals in connection with alleged illegal weapons and cyber activities.
The sanctioned individuals include the head of Pyongyang's Reconnaissance General Bureau, Ri Chang Ho, who Seoul claims worked with hackers to obtain money to fund missile programs. He's in charge of the agency that allegedly oversees the North Korean hacking groups Kimsuky, Lazarus, and Andariel, which have previously been sanctioned by South Korea.
Pro-establishment narrative
North Korea wouldn't be one of the most sanctioned countries on Earth if its leaders simply stopped dealing in illegal weapons trades. As Kim Jong Un's regime continues to illegally provoke the world through its obsession with launching nukes, its government officials, in turn, have resorted to other illegal means to gain the resources necessary for such missiles. Sanctions would be lifted and the world would be safer if the North abided by international law.
Establishment-critical narrative
The West doesn't sanction North Korea because it violates international rules but because the North, in its pursuit of military prowess, won't bend to the demands of America's rules. If Pyongyang gets scolded for launching spy satellites and missiles, why don't South Korea or the US face retribution for developing the same technologies and aiming them at the North? This is about who gets to be in charge, not who has weapons.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Michigan Rejects Attempt to Ban Trump From Primary Ballot
The Michigan Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to hear an appeal of a lower-court ruling, in effect allowing former Pres. Donald Trump to appear on the state’s Republican primary ballot in the race for the 2024 presidential nomination despite a lawsuit challenging his eligibilty.
Free Speech for People, an advocacy group, had appealed the lower-court ruling, arguing Trump, the Republican frontrunner, is forbidden from returning to the White House based on his alleged attempt to prevent the certification of Democratic challenger Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 presidential election.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Biden administration’s attempts to paint Trump as an insurrectionist are lunacy, and in fact, he hasn’t been charged with insurrection in any of the politically motivated criminal cases against him. The Michigan court chose reason over a witch hunt, and hopefully, other states will follow suit, as this election interference by the incumbent president is wasting Trump’s resources and tearing apart the American electoral system.
Anti-Trump narrative
The court ducked its responsibility to make sure political parties are only putting candidates on a state’s primary ballot who are eligible to serve in the office — a category that excludes insurrectionists. This narrow decision, though, allows for a challenge to the general election ballot if Trump is the nominee and allows other states to take up the matter moving forward.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 90% chance that Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New York Times Sues OpenAI, Microsoft for Alleged Copyright Infringement
The New York Times filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, as well as Microsoft, which invests in and supplies the chatbot through its Azure cloud computing technology, on Wednesday, alleging "billions of dollars" in losses due to the "unlawful copying and use of The Times’s uniquely valuable works."
The suit claims that the companies' artificial intelligence (AI) products, including Microsoft's Copilot, were trained using millions of pieces of New York Times content; this, the lawsuit alleges, has drawn would-be readers away from the newspaper and thus deprived it of advertisement, subscription, and licensing revenue.
Narrative A
This isn't your typical plagiarism scandal, and anyone who's ever put time and effort into writing something knows that. OpenAI — now a billion-dollar-per-year company — not only steals the hard-earned published works of famous writers and organizations but has also learned to mimic the styles of lesser-known bloggers. If lawmakers can't figure out how to regulate the AI industry, creative professionals will be faced with immediate loss of income and eventual career extinction.
Narrative B
No one is arguing that copying works word-for-word is allowed, but there is a more nuanced way of looking at this issue. Just as great authors often read and base their work on others' published books, AI bots read, digest, and transform content they find online. If AI companies are caught plagiarizing, they should be forced to retract and compensate, but if they simply study human patterns and create novel literature from their newfound knowledge, then they should be treated as any author who's read others' books.
Nerd narrative
There's a 27% chance that the percentage of the US workforce employed in white-collar jobs will decrease by at least two percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026, potentially due to the influence of AI or other factors, according to Metaculus community prediction.
Turkish Committee Approves Sweden's NATO Bid
Sweden’s potential accession to NATO received a major boost on Tuesday after Turkey’s parliamentary foreign affairs commission approved its membership bid. Turkey had delayed Sweden’s bid for 19 months, demanding security-related concessions from Stockholm.
Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had opposed Sweden’s membership, but he reversed his objection in July. However, he waited several months to send the bill to parliament, and it took weeks for the foreign affairs commission to approve the accession.
Pro-establishment narrative
Sweden’s imminent accession to NATO and Finland’s approval earlier this year are key diplomatic wins for international security. Peace is attained through unity and strength, so adding two historically neutral countries from northern Europe to the military alliance will go a long way toward deterring aggression. With Russia on the offensive in Ukraine, all hands must be on deck to stop further attacks. While some countries may want to keep out of conflict, modern defense requires a unified front, and NATO is the main protector of the global order.
Establishment-critical narrative
NATO claims to seek peace in Europe, but the fact is that the expansion of the aggressive military alliance is only destabilizing the continent. NATO has essentially become an anti-Russian alliance that seeks to provoke Moscow and create conflict. Moreover, NATO is destroying the concept of neutrality and non-interventionism by calling on all members to pick a side in conflicts that have nothing to do with them. NATO is hostile toward its perceived enemies, and Sweden is actually inching closer towards provoking conflict, not deterring it.
Nerd narrative
There's a 96% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.