Pro-establishment narrative

President Biden had vowed to keep oil prices down. The administration is prepared to go to whatever lengths necessary to preserve market stability and low oil prices. Washington is dedicated to stabilizing freight transit in the Red Sea corridor, as evidenced by the formation of a task force last week to protect trade in the region. The Red Sea and Suez Canal handle about 12% of all marine traffic worldwide. Oil tankers were temporarily diverted, but the main shipping lines are again returning to the Red Sea route, which is encouraging news for the market.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Israel-Palestinian conflict could have far-reaching economic consequences. A protracted conflict between the two sides not only has a substantial humanitarian toll but also threatens to bring about a new global economic shock. Important energy infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, and export terminals could be destroyed in the event of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East. This would send prices worldwide through the roof, which would only exasperate already existing issues with inflation. The world needs an immediate, lasting solution in Gaza to ensure maritime and energy security in the Red Sea and beyond.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that peak oil production be reached worldwide by December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While Western countries have pledged to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, they have largely fallen short of providing Ukraine with the amounts and types of weapons needed to inflict defeat on Russia. That fate of beating the Kremlin is still very much possible — but these countries need to rapidly ramp up their delivery of weaponry.

Establishment-critical narrative

The West's collective failure in seeking to expand NATO eastwards to Russia's borders started this war, which has resulted in Ukraine losing vast swaths of territory, as well as untold numbers of men and women. Rather than continue prolonging this devastation, Ukraine needs to push for peace.

Nerd narrative

There's a 0.1% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Kim's announcement to accelerate North Korea's war readiness, including its nuclear program, in addition to the North's recent string of missile tests in violation of UN resolutions, underscores the need for deepened US-Japan-South Korean military cooperation. Pyongyang's constant saber-rattling not only jeopardizes South Korea's national security but also directly threatens the US through its recent tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching US soil. The US will continue to increase pressure on the Kim regime and is keeping all military options, including nuclear, open to defend its allies.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's not North Korea that poses a threat to regional peace and stability, but the USA and its vassals, above all South Korea. To maintain its hegemonic claims, Washington is risking a nuclear war through its increasing provocations and, most recently, by sending a nuclear-capable bomber to the region. Pyongyang has every right to counter these provocations by expanding its own defensive military capabilities and further developing its nuclear deterrent potential. The North will not be intimidated and will protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity by all means.

Narrative C

While Kim wishes to deepen cooperation with Russia and China, Beijing is reluctant to expand bilateral military cooperation. Pyongyang is indeed expanding its military ties with Moscow, but China is seeking to establish itself as a regional stabilizing factor, as illustrated by the recent meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea, as well as the recent rapprochement between China and the US. Also for economic reasons, Beijing is keen not to appear as a promoter of a trilateral axis with Russia and North Korea to avoid a new cold war, from which the US might ultimately benefit.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance of a full-scale war between North and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

It's not difficult to see how making deadly weapons easier to use and more readily available to the general public could have catastrophic consequences. Gaston Glock's company has rightly been referred to as "merchants of death." What makes this name all the more fitting is the nonchalant confession by Glock's former lawyer that mass shootings were a "sensational marketing tool." Glock's quiet lifestyle cannot deny the horrific impacts on societies that his company and products had.

Right narrative

Glock handguns should not be scapegoated — they in fact come with a host of important safety features. These advances have helped to reduce accidental discharges. In fact, negligence, insufficient training, and, most importantly, "unsafe" persons are responsible for gun deaths. Gaston Glock deserves to be given due respect and justly recognized for his role in advancing the development of small arms in a responsible way.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.40 small firearms per capita in the USA by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

if there wasn't a conspiracy, the White House should have no problem turning over the requested communications. The House can’t take the president at his word, considering how much his story has changed concerning his interactions with Hunter’s business associates — another aspect of the impeachment inquiry.

Democratic narrative

The Republicans’ embarrassing impeachment inquiry is stooping to absurd depths in its monthslong search for anything it can hang on Joe Biden. Except this time, the alleged crime has been manufactured because there couldn’t have been a “conspiracy” when everyone knew Hunter was going to defy the subpoena and instead offer to testify publicly.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 25% chance that the US House will impeach Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Countries across the region are paralyzed by the deteriorating toxic and unhealthy air quality. There is a solution but to solve this crisis the nations must work together to understand the causes, develop regional policy, and develop innovative solutions. State-sanctioned responses and major regional collaboration will have to precariously balance the creation of healthy air for residents meeting the needs of the economy.

Narrative B

While the World Bank and other bodies stress robust, regional actions to address the smog issue in South and Southeast Asia, some targeted, cost-effective programming can go a long way. For example, the development of India's National Clean Air Program increased air quality standards reduced vehicle and industrial pollution, and explored alternative energy investments while also preserving economic development. Tackling smog doesn't have to be daunting or economically stifling for the nations affected.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that India become a World Bank high-income country by November 2049, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

San Francisco taxed GM's more than $3B in global revenue even though the corporation has no dealerships or factories and made less than a million dollars in San Francisco retail sales in 2022. Furthermore, Cruise has taken all of its cars off the road, which shows that even its San Francisco-based subsidiary has not been a money-maker for the corporation. It makes no sense for a Detroit-based company with little presence in California to make up 2% of a California city's yearly tax revenue — this was a bad-faith assessment by the city.

Narrative B

Car manufacturers do a lot of good for the country and have received much-deserved praise for their innovation and job creation. However, companies like GM and Ford have over the last 20 or so years benefited from bailouts when business is bad and tax loopholes when profits are booming. Whether it be at the local, state, or federal level, it's time to question this newfound greed and public-private corruption within America's historically beloved auto industry — it's fair and reasonable to expect proportional taxation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 63% chance that a legacy automaker will go bankrupt before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Though Donald Tusk won the hearts of Poland's majority through his message of unity and reinstating democratic norms, the PiS is still trying to dismantle his agenda through biased conservative news coverage. The PiS has long used public media to propagate xenophobic and homophobic disinformation, and they're hoping to continue to leverage their media control ahead of next year's local and European Parliament elections.

Right narrative

While the European establishment claims Poland was under a corrupt conservative media regime, the truth is that TVP was the last place Polish citizens could find any conservative commentary. As soon as he entered office, Tusk began firing virtually every right-leaning pundit in the name of 'restoring democracy.' Tusk, at the behest of his European Parliament masters, also began reshaping the judiciary to push the establishment's agenda. The previous TVP was fighting for free speech and democracy; Tusk is destroying it.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran has completely disregarded its agreements and is speeding ahead in its nuclear enrichment program — a troubling development in and of itself, but even more so amid Iran-backed proxies' attacks on US military bases and threats toward Israel. Iran is behind much of the destabilization occurring in the Middle East, and it is doing all it can to increase tensions with the US.

Pro-Iran narrative

Anti-Iran sentiment and propaganda are in full force as the West — which is the true destabilizer in the Middle East — tries to start a conflict with Tehran. It's clear that the IAEA is trying to cause a media frenzy to portray Iran as a nuclear threat as the US seeks to distract from Israel's atrocities in Gaza. Iran has no plans of making nuclear weapons; it's merely conducting routine activity within the IAEA's regulations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Nikki Haley showed her true colors on Wednesday with her failure to even mention slavery when addressing the cause of the Civil War. The Republican politician is trying to play all sides as she tries to cement herself as the Trump alternative while trying not to alienate the far-right MAGA base. Her failed response not only shows that she isn't a skilled politician but also how the modern GOP clings to relics of the past.

Republican narrative

Nikki Haley has brought into question her qualification for president, as she cannot even handle the simplest off-script questions from voters. Not only did Haley fail to properly address the voter’s question about the Civil War, but she also went on to accuse the questioner of being a Democrat plant. If she can’t even handle basic questions at a town hall, how can she deal with the pressure of being president?

Cynical narrative

While there's no doubt that Haley committed an embarrassing faux pas, it doesn't merit the hysteric response that it has received. The media —looking to incite excitement in a stagnant primary race — has fueled a feeding frenzy, with Haley as the main course. Meanwhile, both sides of the political aisle have seized upon this to bolster their own bases. It's time to move on.