Report: Dozens of Civilians Killed by Ethiopian Forces in Amhara
Dozens of civilians were extrajudicially killed by Ethiopian federal troops in the Amhara region last month, the state-affiliated Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) said on Tuesday.
The EHRC said it had confirmed the identities of 45 civilians who were killed by government forces. "However, it can be assumed that the number of victims is even higher," it added.
Narrative A
If anyone was still harboring doubts about the authoritarian and ethno-fascist nature of the Abiy Ahmed regime, they will have undoubtedly been shattered by the EHRC's confirmation that federal forces extrajudicially killed dozens of civilians in Amhara. The international community must intervene to halt ongoing genocidal war and prevent a humanitarian crisis in the region.
Narrative B
Though it's obviously tragic that some federal troops have failed to exercise restraint in military operations against the Fano militia, the responsibility for these deaths — and for the ongoing conflict in Amhara — ultimately lies with the fighters who have refused to lay down weapons and engage in dialogue with PM Abiy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russia Puts Estonia's Prime Minister on Wanted List
Russian police have reportedly issued arrest warrants for Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and State Secretary Taimar Peterkop for dismantling Soviet-era monuments in the Baltic nation.
According to the Russian foreign ministry, Kallas and Peterkop committed "crimes against the memory of the world's liberators from nazism and fascism," a reference to the removal of WWII memorials of Soviet soldiers.
Anti-Russia narrative
The fact that the Kremlin has put Kallas and many other Western politicians and officials on its wanted list is anything but surprising. This move is a classic scare tactic, all too familiar to anyone who has lived under Russian rule. While Moscow intended to quell criticism, this has only exposed that Estonia is doing the right thing in supporting Ukraine and strengthening European defenses.
Pro-Russia narrative
Despite playing the Ukraine card, the fact is that Kallas is among more than 170 foreign citizens under investigation for acts of desecration, destruction or damage to war graves, monuments, and memorials to Soviet soldiers who liberated the world from Nazism and fascism. Given the outrageousness of these crimes, those responsible must be brought to justice regardless of their position.
Nerd narrative
There's a 26% chance that, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040, Estonia will be the subject of that action, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rafah Offensive: South Africa Makes 'Urgent Request' to ICJ
South Africa said Monday it filed an "urgent request" with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to consider additional emergency measures to protect the local population in Rafah amid the planned expansion of Israel's military offensive in the southern Gazan city.
In its request, Pretoria described Rafah as "the last refuge for surviving people in Gaza" and urged the ICJ to weigh if Israel's recent offensive requires the World Court to use its authority "to prevent further imminent breach of the rights of Palestinians in Gaza."
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel has no choice but to expand its military operations to Rafah, as the city remains Hamas' last stronghold. Israel is trying to limit the toll by urging civilians to head to humanitarian zones on the coast. But Hamas has been known to use refugees as human shields.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel has repeatedly issued warnings to civilians to seek out safe areas where the country has still proceeded to carry out bombings and other deadly tactics. The Israeli government continues to disregard Palestinian lives and the country's genocidal actions warrant international condemnation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9% chance that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: US Asked Allies to Spy on Trump Campaign
US intelligence sources have reportedly told journalists that agencies, including the CIA, during the Obama administration asked other members of the "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance — the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand — to contact and manipulate Trump campaign advisors as early as 2015.
Obama's CIA Director John Brennan reportedly "identified 26 Trump associates for the Five Eyes to target" as early as March 2016, with Five Eyes operatives being sent around the world. The UK's MI6 agency was also "working at an intelligence school they had set up."
Establishment-critical narrative
This proves that at the behest of the Obama administration, the entire Western intelligence apparatus was spying on Trump. Not only has the FBI's investigation been proven corrupt, but we now know the intelligence agencies were willing to break the law for political reasons. This raises concerns about politicized, weaponized surveillance.
Pro-establishment narrative
Once again fringe members of the media are blowing out of proportion an issue related to the intelligence agencies' investigation of the Trump campaign. The special prosecutor in charge of investigating flaws in the system hasn't recommended any change to FBI policy or the prosecution of individuals. This issue has long been settled.
US House Votes to Impeach Mayorkas
The US House of Representatives has, by 214-213, passed a resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for "high crimes and misdemeanors." 214 Republicans voted for the bill, while three Republicans voted alongside 210 Democrats against the measure.
The resolution, submitted by Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) before being referred to the Committee on Homeland Security, accuses Mayorkas of "systemic refusal to comply with the law," alleging the "unlawful mass release" and parole of migrants on America's southern border.
Republican narrative
This is a historic decision to hold a member of the Biden administration responsible. Despite the outcries from the liberal establishment, the reality remains the same — Mayorkas has actively refused to enforce immigration law. If the rest of Biden's cabinet wishes to avoid a similar fate to Mayorkas, it would be wise to use its executive powers on the southern border instead of continuing to play partisan games.
Democratic narrative
In a move unable to survive the Senate, House Republicans are using their razor-thin majority in the House to pursue baseless and politically motivated accusations instead of focusing on productive policy solutions to better the country. While the Democrat-led Senate has recently passed a $95B national security package, the GOP-led House continues to engage in petty point-scoring — undermining the very integrity and gravity of the impeachment process.
Nerd narrative
There is a 24% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan: Coalition Government Selects Shehbaz Sharif as PM
The Pakistani political parties that received the second and third most votes in the recent national election have agreed to form a coalition to elect the next prime minister. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) won 75 out of 266 [directly elected] seats, with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) taking 54.
The coalition, which will also incorporate the MQM-P, PML-Q, IPP, and BAP parties, has garnered 152 seats. After adding the reserved 60 seats for women and 10 for minorities, the coalition will hold far more than the 169 required for a simple majority.
Narrative A
Although the PML-N will take control of the incoming government, its power will be less than it hoped. PPP has opted to not fill any cabinet posts and will instead remain an opposition party capable of ousting Sharif should he continue his brother's dreadful economic policies. The PML-N's relatively insignificant majority shows that the people are leaning toward a new leading party — possibly the PPP — that may usher in a new era of stability in the long term.
Narrative B
Despite voter turnout overwhelming this rigged election, enough roadblocks were put in place to keep the PTI candidates from forming a government. First, the PTI was legally banned from existence. Then, several districts saw mysterious loads of ballots emerge overnight to ensure the Khan-backed independents didn't win more seats than their already historic amount. While the West makes nominal statements about ensuring the election was fair, Pakistan seems to be headed down a path of civil conflict.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance of civil war in Pakistan before Jan. 1, 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Indonesia: Subianto Claims Victory in Presidential Election
Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has claimed victory in Wednesday's presidential election as unofficial results with about 85% of the ballots counted show him leading the race with nearly 60% of the vote.
If official results next month confirm these preliminary counts from pollsters, the 72-year-old is likely to win the presidency outright. A candidate must secure over 50% of the votes as well as at least 20% of the vote in over half of Indonesia's provinces to avoid a run-off.
Establishment-critical narrative
Gen. Prabowo Subianto, a longtime US protégé who managed to gain support from his country's political elites ahead of this presidential race, has long expressed support for authoritarian military rule. Therefore, his likely election victory represents nothing but the end of democracy in Indonesia.
Pro-establishment narrative
Prabowo Subianto indeed has a troubled record regarding human rights and his own short temper but sensationalism over his possible presidency is unfounded. Those supporting his presidential bid are not discontent with democracy — quite the contrary. In fact, Subianto represents continuity and an implicit faith in democratic institutions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 7.5% chance that Indonesia will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Democrat Suozzi Wins US House Special Election in NY
Democrat Tom Suozzi on Tuesday defeated Republican Mazi Pilip in a US House special election in New York, earning the right to replace Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress earlier this year.
Suozzi, who served in the House for three terms before stepping down to unsuccessfully run for governor in 2022, was declared victorious with about 58% of the vote by 10 p.m. Tuesday.
Democratic narrative
This enormous victory should resonate beyond New York and send the message that Americans agree Biden is a strong president and the US is better off today than it was before Biden took office. Democrats are the party of progress, while Republicans are still looking to the past for Trump and his failed policies. This bodes well for Democrats in 2024.
Republican narrative
Instead of celebrating, Democrats should be worrying over their disappointing margin of victory. Running a three-time representative against someone with zero name recognition who made several mistakes on the campaign trail should've led to a blowout win. Instead, the numbers make it look like Republicans will be able to take back this seat in just a few months.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Republicans will retain control of the US House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Microsoft Says Russia, China Use OpenAI for Hacking
OpenAI and Microsoft have reported that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are using OpenAI's artificial intelligence (AI) products to conduct unsophisticated but efficient hacking activities like writing emails, translating documents, and debugging computer code.
They claim the Chinese groups Charcoal Typhoon and Salmon Typhoon used it for cybersecurity and phishing, the Russian-connected group Forest Blizzard to research "satellite radar technologies," and North Korea-linked Emerald Street "likely" used it for "spear-phishing campaigns."
Pro-establishment narrative
Instead of developing its own technology for the betterment of humanity, Beijing has decided to steal US technology and use it to hack the personal data of government and business personnel. Companies like OpenAI have been worried about this for a while now, especially following PRC attempts to buy up stock in chip-making firms and then steal their technology. The worst part is that China has already collected vast amounts of data — information it can now sort through via the powerful capabilities of AI. This undermines a rules-based order.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US and its Western Five Eyes surveillance allies repeatedly make these accusations to cover up the fact that they are the world's leading spies and hackers. Each time a whistleblower exposes another illegal spying activity by the US, Washington subsequently deflects the news by throwing baseless conspiracies around about Bejing. Not only does the US hack foreign governments, but also its own citizens. US intelligence agencies are the real threats to privacy and security.
Nerd narrative
There is a 48% chance that the US will restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud computing before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Agency Considers Migrant Releases Over Budget Shortfall
US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) may release thousands of migrants who are currently in detention centers due to concerns over the agency’s $700M budget deficit, according to officials who spoke with the Washington Post on Wednesday.
After Congress failed to pass a Senate border bill last week, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), started looking for ways to make up for one of its largest budget shortfalls in years.
Republican narrative
Democrats are playing a truly wicked game with the sovereignty of America, as they hold the nation hostage and push for millions of illegals to flood the US with impunity. Biden’s DHS is essentially blackmailing Republicans, and all American citizens, into accepting all of their radical policies in order to enforce any semblance of border security.
Democratic narrative
Border hawk Republicans had the opportunity to give ICE all the money it needed — and more — to fund its border security efforts, yet it refused to pass a bipartisan bill for political reasons. The fact that Republicans refused to give ICE $7.6B leaves many questions, and it's fair to wonder if the GOP is trying to sabotage the Biden administration.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 7.8%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.