22 February 2024

Daily Newsletter

UK: Calls for House of Commons Speaker to Resign After Gaza Vote

The Facts

  • Over 50 Conservative and Scottish National Party (SNP) members of parliament have supported a no-confidence Early Day Motion (EDM) concerning UK House of Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle submitted on Thursday.

  • The motion of no confidence follows Hoyle's decision to break with parliamentary convention, introducing a Labour Party amendment in addition to a government amendment concerning the Scottish National Party's (SNP) "Opposition day" motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.


The Spin

Narrative A

Labour's behavior in the Commons can only be described as disgraceful. Hoyle's veil of impartiality has been destroyed, and Labour has been exposed as willing to manipulate parliamentary procedure and disregard the democratic values of Opposition day for their own benefit. Hoyle must go, and Labour should be ashamed.

Narrative B

Hoyle acted out of genuine concern for the safety and security of Labour lawmakers who have faced countless threats over their stances on the conflict in Gaza. In contrast, the Conservative Party sought to plunge the House into procedural chaos instead of allowing discussions over the horrors of the Middle East to receive due focus. While Starmer has, somehow, escaped the SNP's motion without a public party divide, nobody should be proud of what happened in Parliament.

Narrative C

While the SNP's motion on an immediate ceasefire had nothing more than symbolic consequences and was largely fuelled by selfish intentions to undermine Labour's political position, the extent of the contempt that the voice of Scotland was treated by Hoyle and the Commons is unacceptable. As long as London squabbles over theatrics and Hoyle remains Speaker, the people of Scotland alongside the people of Gaza will continue to be disrespected.

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Study: US COVID Deaths Likely 16% Higher Than Official Records

The Facts

  • A new study has found that far more COVID-era excess deaths in the US could be attributed to the infection, which would mean the number of COVID deaths was at least 16% higher nationally than the official tally.

  • The study, published in the American journal PNAS, observed 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths between March 2020 and Aug. 2022, of which 162,886 were not attributed to COVID.


The Spin

Narrative A

This data finally shows the reason behind the mysterious uptick in excess deaths during the pandemic — which turns out not to be that mysterious at all. From government officials down to their constituents, many Americans declined to or were encouraged not to count family deaths due to political reasons. Instead, they pointed to things like drug overdoses as the reason for rising excess fatalities. In reality, public health bodies were insufficient in their counting and thus trivialized the dangers of COVID's lethality.

Narrative B

The nation's experts who claimed COVID deaths were skyrocketing for three years eventually backtracked, admitting that they were overcounting by 70%. Even the strongest proponents of the original COVID excess death theory, including national public health officials and reporters, have now admitted that those who died "with" COVID were lumped in with those who died "from" it. This context is essential.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC (Variant of Concern) or worse will result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the United States before July 1, 2025, according to Metaculus community prediction.

See sources

Japan: Nikkei Index Surges Past 1989's Record High

The Facts

  • Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average hit a record closing high on Thursday after the blue-chip index increased 2.2% to 39,098.68, surpassing the previous highest closing level of 38,915.87 recorded in 1989.

  • The Nikkei 225, a benchmark stock index in Japan, rose as high as 39,156.97 points, also beating the previous intraday all-time peak of 38,957.44 points achieved on Dec. 29, 1989.


The Spin

Narrative A

Record gains in Japan's benchmark stock index are driven by improved corporate governance and investment flows diverted from a battered Chinese stock market. The blue-chip index has successfully defied a recession in Japan alongside wars in Europe and the Middle East. While it may be volatile in the short term, the Nikkei could once again become Asia's most valuable stock market as Tokyo shows signs of change.

Narrative B

The current boom in the Nikkei could be a fleeting affair, and it's too early to suggest that Japan is on course for global dominance. The long-term outlook for Japanese equities remains one fueled by skepticism. No matter how bullish foreign investors are today, until the Bank of Japan learns from its past mistakes and the country fixes its political trajectory, economic challenges — including inflation and slow wage growth — will not go away.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that the S&P 500 index will go up over 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Multiple Cell Service Outages Disrupt US

The Facts

  • According to the website downdetector.com, cell service provider AT&T dealt with more than 60K reports of service outages as of 7:30 a.m. EST Thursday. Service providers Verizon, T-Mobile, USCellular, and Consumer Cellular also experienced outages, but at a much smaller scale.

  • Among the customers affected, a reported 51% said they had issues with cellphone service, 8% said their issues were with internet outages, and over 33% said they had no service at all.


The Spin

Narrative A

Luckily, this issue appears to have been mostly limited to AT&T customers, who have the luxury of using Wi-Fi networks for calls while the company investigates the matter and solves the problem. Any wider outage might've meant a cyber attack that would have required a greater response.

Narrative B

AT&T, a multibillion-dollar company, went too far in asking its paying customers to inconvenience themselves and use Wi-FI calling. Many Americans are being left stranded by this outage and the company better have a good explanation to customers and the government when its investigation is complete.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that an infrastructure disaster costing greater than $1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Google Apologizes for Gemini's Historical Inaccuracies

The Facts

  • Google on Thursday issued an apology after its artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot Gemini generated historically inaccurate or implausible images in its attempt to be diverse and inclusive.

  • Google paused image generation by Gemini after several examples of this were posted online, including racially diverse Nazi-era German soldiers and a Black pope. Gemini apparently also failed to generate images of White people.


The Spin

Left narrative

These issues are to be expected because most AI developers are White men, who are trying to avoid embedding their innate biases into the technology. There's been an overcorrection, but it's fixable and preferable to AI adopting disturbing stereotypes about other races.

Right narrative

Gemini was designed by humans who seem to think American and European history is too white. So now what was previously assumed about the Big Tech leaders and what they think of Western civilization has become fact. No apology can make up for their clear disregard for actual history.

Narrative C

Gemini and other AI products are in their infancy and it's better to have this debate out in the open than to allow the technology to develop biases one way or another. It will take far more training, but eventually, AI will strike the right balance when it comes to understanding and explaining history.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that if there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, it will happen by July 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Albania Approves Migrant Center Deal With Italy

The Facts

  • Albania's Parliament voted 77-0 Thursday to approve a five-year deal with Italy to hold migrants while their asylum requests are being processed. Members of the conservative opposition party sat out of the vote in protest.

  • Under the deal, which was signed by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in November, Italy will pay Albania 600M euros ($650M) to build two processing centers that will hold up to 3K migrants at any given time.


The Spin

Left narrative

This agreement flies in the face of both the international and European laws Italy is supposed to follow. Countries are required to immediately take in and process refugees on the land they arrived, but Italy is now going to send these vulnerable asylum seekers — who already trekked across the ocean to reach Italy — hundreds of miles away to a different country where they could then be deported.

Right narrative

Under the current system propped up by the mass migration nonprofit industry, Italy has received over a million migrants in the past ten years. The reason Italy needed this deal is because as these large waves of migrants come ashore, they eventually disappear into the country after checking into a processing center. Italy deserves to control who they accept and reject, which is why Albania is lending a hand.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany will leave the EU before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Leaked Files Expose PRC International Hacking Efforts

The Facts

  • A cache containing leaked files alleged from a PRC state-linked group, which was posted on GitHub and experts consider to be authentic, indicates how Beijing works with hundreds of private hacking companies to obtain sensitive information from foreign governments and firms.

  • The documents, which only list targets and summaries of sample data, come from Shanghai-based I-Soon — also known as Auxun — a firm that has reportedly signed hundreds of deals with Chinese police, including multi-year contracts costing as much as $800K.


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

These leaked hacking documents corroborate long-made claims that China has indeed carried out widespread and effective cyber espionage both at home and abroad — stealing personal and corporate data at an unprecedented rate. China represents a massive threat to cyber security, it's about time for the free world to fight back.

Pro-China narrative

Beijing has firmly opposed and taken legal action against cyber attacks, even urging the international community to build a peaceful, open, cooperative, and orderly cyberspace. Yet, once again, the West is smearing China for alleged hacking operations only to cover up that America is the main hacking state in the world.

Nerd narrative

There's a 6% chance that there will be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Uncontrolled European Satellite Plummets to Earth

The Facts

  • On Wednesday, the defunct European Remote Sensing 2 Satellite plummeted into Earth’s atmosphere where it disintegrated over the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Alaska. No injuries or damage were reported from the reentry.

  • ERS-2 met its demise after 30 years in space. The European Space Agency (ESA) reported that while most of the debris incinerated in the atmosphere, some pieces landed in the Pacific Ocean. Photos of the descent, occurring between Jan. 14 and Feb. 3, were released Monday.


The Spin

Narrative A

We owe life as we know it to satellites in orbit. Without satellites, we wouldn’t have real-time communications, weather monitoring for catastrophic events like hurricanes and wildfires, systems for national security, and more importantly, a means to understand climate change and its impacts.

Narrative B

There have been too many dangerous interactions with space junk caused by decommissioned or rogue equipment. But this junk isn't just a threat in the air, it could also cause a catastrophe when it lands in populated areas of Earth. There must be a global effort to reduce this human-created celestial threat.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that the SpinLaunch will lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by Jan. 1, 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

CIA Chief Expected in Paris, Israel to Send Delegation

The Facts

  • CIA director Bill Burns was expected in Paris on Friday to discuss a new hostage deal and a pause in the fighting in Gaza. A senior Biden administration advisor reportedly told Israeli officials that progress had been made in Cairo between Hamas and Egyptian and Qatari mediators.

  • Possibly in response to US reports of Hamas' flexibility, the Israeli war cabinet voted to send a delegation to the Paris talks late on Thursday. The government has not yet confirmed the decision, however.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though Israelis have valid fears after the cruel barbarity of Oct. 7, Israel must make peace with the Palestinians and the Arab world to ensure its lasting security. Everyone can agree that the PA has many issues that must be urgently fixed, namely its corruption and Abbas' weakness. Nonetheless, Israel cannot reoccupy the Gaza Strip, which would be a significant strategic blunder, and Israeli leaders must realize that only a revitalized PA can manage Gaza's civil administration so normal life can return to the strip as soon as possible.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel simply cannot work with a political entity that lacks the moral character to condemn Hamas' Oct. 7 terror attack, regardless of US plans to force a "reformed" PA on Israel. The PA would be incapable of demilitarizing Gaza or deradicalizing its population, meaning that the chance that an attack like Oct. 7 could happen again remains. To solve this, Israel will instead rely on a network of trustworthy and independent locals to manage Gaza's civil affairs while it holds strategically essential terrain.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The great irony of the debate regarding the PA and Gaza's post-war governance is that Palestinians, especially in the occupied West Bank, overwhelmingly see the political body as an extension of Israel's occupation. Even if one disregards Israel's unrealistic plans for running Gaza, Mahmoud Abbas and his lame-duck administration in Ramallah are deeply unpopular, and Palestinians simply do not want to be governed by the PA. The US must realize that it can't force Palestinians to acquiesce to its geopolitical interests, and it will have to be more creative if it wants to set the conditions advantageous to ending this conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's a 58% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Texas Judge Rules School Code Doesn't Violate Hair Legislation

The Facts

  • A Texas judge Thursday ruled a high school didn't violate the state’s CROWN Act by disciplining a Black student who refused to cut his dreadlocks. An acronym for “Creating a Respectful and Open World for Natural Hair,” the CROWN Act prohibits race-based hair discrimination.

  • Houston-area student Darryl George sued the Barbers Hill Independent School District after his school suspended him for not cutting his hair. The school’s handbook stipulates that male students cannot have their hair extend beyond their eyebrows or earlobes, or below their shirt’s top collar.


The Spin

Narrative A

This ruling allows Texas schools to discriminate against students based on hairstyle — dealing a crushing blow to Black students who want to express themselves. Dreadlocks should be protected by the CROWN Act, but it's no surprise this school in a district with a history of racial discrimination doesn't see it that way. This ruling must be overturned.

Narrative B

The George family is causing an unnecessary ruckus. The CROWN Act doesn't apply to hair length and the district's dress code is universally applied to students of all races. It's wrong to claim that the school is discriminating against George, and this ruling was the correct one.

See sources

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